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Within half an hour of the latest truce ending on Friday, Israeli fighter jets were bombing Gaza, and Hamas was firing salvos of rockets into Israel.

Although the Israel Defence Forces had been preparing for a resumption of their ground offensive if further truces could not be agreed, both sides are motivated to progress the release of hostages.

So why have the negotiations stalled and war resumed?

One of the IDF’s objectives is to liberate hostages, and the truces have proven an effective way to achieve this objective.

However, the IDF also wants to destroy Hamas, and is determined to resume military operations if the hostage negotiations stall.

Hamas knows it is no match militarily for the IDF, but is using the hostages as leverage to ensure its survival through extended ceasefires.

The initial focus was on releasing Israeli women and children, with three Palestinian prisoners released for every hostage liberated.

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However, the next category of hostages will include young males and foreign nationals held, and Hamas will place a greater value on these hostages before considering their release.

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Israel’s military has begun Phase 2 of its offensive

The IDF soldiers will probably be the most prized hostages held by Hamas, and although Hamas might drip-feed their release, they only need a handful of IDF hostages – plus maybe a couple of foreign nationals – to maintain a credible negotiation capability.

Hamas once held an IDF soldier for five years and only agreed an exchange in return for over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners – one of which was Yahya Sinwar, who is now the leader of Hamas in Gaza.

Read more: Who are the first 79 Israeli hostages released by Hamas?

Aftermath of explosions in Gaza Strip following end of ceasefire
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Aftermath of explosions in Gaza Strip following the end of the ceasefire

Meanwhile, Israel appears primarily focused on destroying Hamas, and although any truce will be welcome if it liberates hostages, the IDF will not tolerate any prevarication by Hamas.

Although Israel has resumed its combat operations, the military objectives will likely remain unchanged: destroying Hamas and liberating all hostages.

The second phase of its ground offensive appears to be focused on southern Gaza, where the population density is higher.

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Israel launches strikes on Gaza as truce ends

The IDF admits the casualties will be greater during Phase 2 – for both the IDF and the Palestinian civilians.

Israel claims to have killed 5,000 Hamas fighters in the first phase of the war, but in total more than 15,000 Palestinians have lost their lives since the start of the conflict – and that ignores those bodies yet to be discovered in the rubble.

If Israel’s military objective remains to destroy Hamas and they have killed 20% of the fighters to date, then by extrapolation the next phase of the conflict could result in another 60,000 Palestinian lives lost – not accounting for the increased risk due to the greater population density in the south of Gaza.

Benjamin Netanyahu in Gaza
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Pressure is steadily growing on Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end the war

Read more:
Blinken tells Israel it needs ‘clear plan’ to protect civilians
Israel accuses Hamas of violating truce deal – military operations resume

Any such dramatic increase in the levels of civilian casualties or escalation of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza will be of grave concern to the international community.

Even the US – Israel’s closest ally – is using increasingly cautionary language and urging restraint. It will be very difficult for Israel to maintain international support for a prolonged offensive in pursuit of its military objectives.

Regardless, Israel is clearly not prepared to let Hamas seize the initiative.

Israel supports an extension to the truce in exchange for hostages, leaving Hamas to choose between negotiation or war.

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Fighting resumes in Gaza

Qatari mediators are continuing their efforts to negotiate a fresh agreement, and we should expect periodic pauses in the hostilities as fresh agreements are reached and more hostages are released.

However, these are increasingly frustrating times for Israel who, despite overwhelming military superiority and securing the release of more than 100 hostages, are fast losing the initiative in this conflict.

Despite mounting a determined and aggressive ground offensive into Gaza, Israel has not destroyed Hamas, has yet to free all hostages, and is facing increasing calls to end the war.

Despite the devastation, the conflict has done little to resolve the underlying issues that polarise opinions in the region.

However, from the horrors of war, the opportunities for a lasting peace emerge, but only with international commitment and leadership will lasting progress be made.

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Blue Origin launch: Is Jeff Bezos chasing down Elon Musk in the billionaire space race?

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Blue Origin launch: Is Jeff Bezos chasing down Elon Musk in the billionaire space race?

Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin is set for the inaugural launch of its new space rocket on Monday in a development that could add more fuel to the billionaire space race.

The New Glenn rocket is due to blast off from Cape Canaveral – the result of a multi-billion dollar, decade-long effort that could set the stage for Amazon’s satellite constellation venture and dent Elon Musk’s market share.

Mr Musk’s SpaceX has dominated the scene for many years but both Mr Bezos and Virgin Galactic founder Sir Richard Branson have designs on outer space… and the wealth tied up in its exploration.

New Glenn on the launch pad in December. Pic: Blue Origin
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New Glenn on the launch pad in December. Pic: Blue Origin

Jeff Bezos and Blue Origin

“Ever since I was five years old, I’ve dreamed of traveling to space,” Mr Bezos said ahead of his journey to the edge of space in 2021.

He founded the Blue Origin venture with the aim of having “millions of people working and living in space”.

For years it has launched – and landed – its reusable New Shepard rocket to and from the brim of Earth’s atmosphere, but has never sent anything into orbit. That could all change on Monday.

Jeff Bezos, owner of The Washington Post, delivers remarks at the grand opening of the Washington Post newsroom in Washington January 28, 2016. REUTERS/Gary Cameron
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Jeff Bezos, founder of Blue Origin and Amazon. Pic: Reuters

Blue Origin will be hoping its New Glenn rocket will be able to compete with SpaceX’s Falcon 9, the world’s most active rocket.

Compared to Mr Musk’s Falcon 9, the New Glenn is about twice as powerful and its payload bay diameter is two times larger in order to fit bigger batches of satellites.

The upcoming launch is also a key certification flight required by the US Space Force before New Glenn can launch national security payloads as part of multi-billion dollar government tenders Blue Origin hopes to win.

A SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket lifts off for the Europa Clipper mission to study one of Jupiter's 95 moons, at Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida, U.S. October 14, 2024. REUTERS/Joe Skipper
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A SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket lifts off in October 2024. Pic: Reuters

Elon Musk and SpaceX

“I want to die on Mars – just not on impact,” Elon Musk once quipped.

The Donald Trump ally, who is frequently pictured wearing an “Occupy Mars” shirt, has enjoyed relative dominance of the private space industry through his company SpaceX.

Back in 2016, Mr Musk outlined his vision of building a colony on Mars “in our lifetimes” – with the first rocket propelling humans to the Red Planet by 2025, though this deadline does not appear likely to be met.

Mr Musk and Mr Trump speak at launch of SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket at NASA's Kennedy Space Centre in 2020. Pic: Reuters
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Elon Musk and Donald Trump speak at a SpaceX launch in 2020. Pic: Reuters

For many years the company used an image of the Martian surface being terraformed (turned Earth-like) in its promotional material. However, a NASA-sponsored study published in 2018 dismissed these plans as impossible with the technology available then.

SpaceX missions have included both US government contracts and launching the company’s Starlink satellite internet network.

And while Mr Bezos’ New Glenn rocket is much more powerful than the successful Falcon 9, SpaceX’s next-generation Starship, a fully reusable rocket system currently in development, would be more powerful still.

Mr Musk sees Starship as crucial to expanding Starlink’s footprint in orbit. Its next test flight is expected later this month and will involve deploying mock satellites.

Read more:
NASA astronauts stuck in space ‘don’t feel like castaways’
Spacecraft survives closest-ever approach to the sun

 Sir Richard Branson
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Sir Richard Branson. Pic: Reuters

Sir Richard Branson and Virgin Galactic

Also seeking a stake in the upper atmosphere is Virgin founder Sir Richard, whose Virgin Galactic effort took its first tourists to the edge of space in 2023.

The crew took the passengers about 55 miles (88km) above Earth where they experienced zero gravity during the flight which lasted just over an hour.

“My mum taught me to never give up and to reach for the stars,” the British billionaire once said.

The company is currently taking a pause from flights as it develops new space vehicles, Forbes reported in October last year.

Its new fleet of Delta vehicles are scheduled to resume commercial spaceflight by 2026.

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CCTV footage reveals shocking moment 80-year-old is shot in IDF raid as UN expert says it could be ‘war crime’

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CCTV footage reveals shocking moment 80-year-old is shot in IDF raid as UN expert says it could be 'war crime'

On 19 December, 80-year-old Palestinian grandmother Halima Abu Leil was shot in an Israel Defence Forces (IDF) raid on her neighbourhood in Balata refugee camp in Nablus, West Bank.

Two days later, Halima’s children told Sky News their mother was shot six times by Israeli special forces on her way to buy groceries. She died soon after.

Warning this piece includes an image from CCTV of the moment Halima Abu Leil was shot.

“They could see she is an elderly lady but they shot her six times – in her leg, in her chest. When she was first shot in her legs, she knelt on the ground,” her daughter said.

Halima Abuleil's daughter
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Halima’s daughter

Newly released grainy CCTV footage shows the moment she was shot and reveals that a van marked as an ambulance was used during the surprise IDF raid.

Halima Abu Leil’s family want the footage to be seen.

Sky News’ Data & Forensics unit has analysed the CCTV and geolocated the street where the video was filmed. It is the exact location Halima’s son told us she “fell to her knees” as she was shot.

READ MORE: Grandmother shot six times by IDF during raid, son says

In the video, we see Halima turn into the street.

Three men are also walking down the street. There is no visible contact between them and Halima. Based on our analysis of their silhouettes, the figure in the middle appears to be holding a weapon. They are likely to be neighbourhood militants.

The figure in the middle appears to be holding a weapon

The three men veer to the right, moving into a sunny area. One takes a seat on some stairs, while the other two stand. They join someone sitting there already.

A few yards away, Halima stops in the middle of the street to speak to another woman with a shopping trolley.

An ambulance pulls into vision, separating the two women, and drives slowly down the street. A white van pulls in behind the medical vehicle.

A few moments later, the passenger door of the white van opens and a faint cloud of smoke is visible, suggesting that a gunshot is fired.

This is the moment Halima falls to her knees.

The men, some of them armed, scatter to the right and left into alleyways along with other people in the street.

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A detailed analysis of the footage suggests that visible clouds of smoke on the walls are the result of multiple shots. The footage and imagery we gathered from the site of the killing shows bullet holes in the building next to where Halima was standing.

The exact location Halima Abu Leil was shot in Balata Refugee Camp.
Image:
The exact location Halima Abu Leil was shot in Balata Refugee Camp

The woman she was speaking to moments earlier takes cover in a doorway.

At the same time, figures who appear to be Israeli military forces exit the ambulance in the foreground. They are equipped with helmets, backpacks, rifles, and other gear.

Soldier seen in video

Armed figures can also be seen leaving the white van in the background. They are seen aiming their weapons down the street.

Halima appears to get hit again and collapses to the floor. The men likely to be neighbourhood militants are not visibly present in the street when this happens.

At the time of our previous report, the IDF said they had conducted “counterterrorism activity” in Balata camp the morning Halima was killed.

We approached the IDF about the CCTV footage and the use of a medical vehicle to conduct their operation.

This was its response: “The IDF is committed to and operates in accordance with international law. The mentioned incident is under review. The review will examine the use of the vehicle shown in the video and the claims of harm to uninvolved individuals during the exchange of fire between the terrorists and our forces.”

The use of a marked medical vehicle for a security operation could be a contravention of the Geneva Convention and a war crime – as well as Halima’s killing.

balata

The United Nations Special Rapporteur on occupied Palestinian territory Francesca Albanese watched the CCTV video and told Sky News she was shocked but not surprised.

She says: “When I look at the footage, what emerges prima facie is that there were no precautions taken – within these operations whose legality is debatable – to avoid or spare civilian life. No principle of proportionality because there was wildfire directed at the identified target and ultimately no respect for the principle of distinction.

“So this was a murder in cold blood and could be a war crime as an extrajudicial killing.”

According to the United Nations Office of Human Rights in occupied Palestinian territory (OHCHR oPt), Israeli security forces and settlers have killed at least 813 mostly unarmed Palestinians, including 15 women and 177 children, since 7 October 2023.

In a statement to Sky News regarding Halima’s killing, the OHCHR oPT said: “Any deliberate killing by Israeli security forces of Palestinians in the Occupied West Bank who do not pose an imminent threat to life is unlawful under international human rights law and a war crime in the context of Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian Territory.

“This incident must be investigated independently, effectively, thoroughly, and transparently. If there is evidence of violations of the applicable law enforcement standards, those responsible must be held to account.”

Sophie Alexander, international affairs producer, and Michelle Inez Simon, visual investigations producer, contributed reporting.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy pushes for Gaza ceasefire deal ahead of US inauguration

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Donald Trump's Middle East envoy pushes for Gaza ceasefire deal ahead of US inauguration

Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy has met Israel’s prime minister in an effort to secure a ceasefire deal in Gaza before the president-elect takes office on 20 January.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s office confirmed details of the meeting with Steve Witkoff on Saturday, adding that the head of the Israeli Mossad intelligence agency has been deployed to Qatar in order to “advance” talks.

It was not immediately clear when David Barnea would travel to Doha for the latest round of indirect discussions between Israel and Hamas.

Earlier on Saturday, an Israeli official said some progress had been made, mediated by Egypt, Qatar and the United States, to reach a deal in Gaza.

Israel's Chief of the Mossad David Barnea and Security Agency director Ronen Bar attend a memorial ceremony of the Hamas attack on October 7 last year that sparked the ongoing war in Gaza, at the Mount Herzl military cemetery in Jerusalem on October 27, 2024. GIL COHEN-MAGEN/Pool via REUTERS
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Ronen Bar (left), director of Israel’s security agency, and David Barnea (right), head of Mossad, at a ceremony marking the 7 October Hamas attack. File pic: Reuters

The mediators are making renewed efforts to halt fighting in Gaza and free the remaining Israeli hostages held there before Mr Trump takes office.

A deal would also involve the release of some Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.

Families of Israeli hostages welcomed Mr Netanyahu’s decision to dispatch the officials, with the Hostages and Missing Families Forum Headquarters describing it as a “historic opportunity”.

Mr Witkoff arrived in Doha on Friday and met the Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatar’s foreign ministry said.

Egyptian and Qatari mediators received reassurances from Mr Witkoff that the US would continue to work towards a fair deal to end the war soon, Egyptian security sources said, though no further details were released.

Read more from Sky News:
Why does Donald Trump want Greenland?
Trump says Vladimir Putin wants to meet
A guide to Donald Trump’s inauguration

Israel launched its assault on Gaza after Hamas fighters stormed across its borders in October 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli figures.

Families of the roughly 100 hostages still held in Gaza are pressing Mr Netanyahu to reach a deal to bring their loved ones home.

Since then, more than 46,000 people have been killed in Gaza, according to Palestinian health officials, with much of the area destroyed and gripped by a humanitarian crisis, with most of its population displaced.

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