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MLB’s winter meetings begin Monday in Nashville, Tennessee, and it figures be an action-packed week of rumors, signings and trades.

We’ve got it all covered for you right here, from our experts’ predictions heading into the meetings to the latest updates and analysis as the moves go down.

Will No. 1 free agent Shohei Ohtani choose his next team at the meetings? Will we see a blockbuster trade involving Juan Soto or Pete Alonso? And will big spenders such as the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs open their wallets in Nashville? Check out our predictions now and refresh often for the latest as the week unfolds.

Key links: Free agency tracker | Latest Ohtani intel

Ranking the top 50 free agents | One move for all 30 teams | Passan’s winter meetings preview


Dec. 4 buzz

Will Juan Soto be on the move during the winter meetings?

Because the San Diego Padres face a payroll crunch, they are expected to trade Juan Soto, who is in line to make something in the neighborhood of $33 million for the 2024 season. But Padres GM A.J. Preller doesn’t have to trade him this week — and some rival executives said Saturday that there might be a long wait before a Soto deal is concluded.

Rival executives say that the Padres’ current asking price for Soto is very high, with San Diego looking for major league ready pitching, plus others. With a generational talent like Soto, Preller could just wait to see if some team in the market — maybe a team that loses out in the Shohei Ohtani bidding — steps up. “I think this has all the makings of a late January or early February deal,” said one front office type whose team is not involved.

If so, this would not be the first time a superstar moved very late in the winter. Francisco Lindor, Johan Santana, Roger Clemens and Mookie Betts are among the elite talents who didn’t change teams until well after Christmas. Rival executives say that while there are many teams who would love to take Soto in a pure salary dump, there are likely very few teams willing to embrace the current circumstances: Surrendering young big leaguers or high-end prospects for an expensive rental who is expected to test free agency next fall. The Boston Red Sox dangled Mookie Betts under similar conditions prior to the 2019 season, and there were only two serious suitors; which is why, in the end, the Los Angeles Dodgers were rewarded for their patience and got him for Alex Verdugo and a couple of others, while taking on David Price and the $48 million owed to the left-hander. When Lindor was traded, the Guardians didn’t have a lot of potential bidders. When Santana was dealt, Minnesota was forced to make a trade with the Mets, the one team willing to give him a contract extension.

The New York Yankees have serious interest in Soto, with some young pitching to offer, and some rival executives believe that the Giants are a team to watch because they, too, have depth in starting pitching. The Padres, currently intent on contending in 2024, have to fill three-fifths of their rotation. The Blue Jays, staring at a two-year window before Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. reach free agency, have the need for a hitter — which is why they’ve been in on Ohtani — but lack pitching depth. If the Dodgers miss on Ohtani, they might have the pitching depth to make a deal for Soto, but there would be a question about whether San Diego would deal a future Hall of Famer to their most significant NL West rival. — Buster Olney


Giolito’s market begins to take shape

Lucas Giolito emerged as a star in his time with the Chicago White Sox, drawing votes for the Cy Young Award in three different seasons — and that goes a long way to explaining the initial interest expressed by the White Sox in possibly bringing him back as a free agent this winter. Ethan Katz, Giolito’s high school pitching coach, continues to work with the White Sox, and Chicago has upgraded its pitching department with the addition of respected analyst Brian Bannister, who formerly worked with the Red Sox and Giants.

But a reunion of Giolito and the White Sox is probably unlikely, given this winter’s circumstances. Although Giolito struggled after being traded to the Angels and then was picked up on waivers by the Guardians, he should get strong offers in this market — some executives compared him to the likes of Jameson Taillon (who got $68 million over four years from the Cubs), and as the White Sox begin to rebuild, the price of a big contract and the timing might not be a fit.

Depending on how the market plays out, there might be a better fit with another of Katz’s former pupils — former Cardinals pitcher Jack Flaherty, the right-hander who might need to take a short-term deal to reestablish his value and then hit the market again next fall. For the White Sox, the investment could be worthwhile because if Flaherty rebounds to what he was early in his career in St. Louis, he could be an interesting trade chip during the 2024 season or a candidate for an extension. — Buster Olney


Will Ohtani sign in Nashville — and where will he land?

Gonzalez: Ohtani signing during the winter meetings would definitely be MLB’s preference, and at this point, that would be my guess too. Many have long speculated that Ohtani’s free agency would play out relatively quickly, and I don’t expect him to wait until Yoshinobu Yamamoto comes off the board to pick his new team. By next week, he might have a pretty good grasp of what he wants, as (at times) the winter meetings have a tendency of spurring action. At this point, I’d pick the Toronto Blue Jays to sign him, but it’s tough to rule out the Dodgers or the Los Angeles Angels.

Olney: Some executives tracking the Ohtani negotiations believe he could pick his team sometime over the weekend, or very early in the winter meetings. During the season, a friend of Ohtani said he believed the two-way star knew long ago where he wanted to land, but because this negotiation is expected to generate the biggest contract in baseball history, his representation needs a little dog-and-pony show to goose the bidding just a little more. Executives will tell you frankly they know almost nothing about what he really wants, outside of this: Based on his initial choice of the Angels, he seems to want to play in warmer weather, which is why I still believe he’ll land with the Dodgers.

Rogers: By Thursday, Ohtani will have chosen the Dodgers. They check too many boxes — unless there’s simply an underlying reason that no one knows about that would prevent him from signing there. If the agent (and team) has any say in any of this, it should be in the timing of an announcement. And what better place to make it than where the baseball world has gathered? There are plenty of breadcrumbs telling us Ohtani doesn’t exactly love the spotlight, but for this signing, he’ll have to bask in it.

Doolittle: This is just a guess, but Ohtani will sign with the Dodgers on Tuesday following a spate of rumors that have him signing with various teams, though at first it’s unclear whether it’s in the States or back in Japan. Then it turns out that he never spoke to any of those teams and he has been dreaming of Dodger Blue all along. A dream and $600 million is all it took.

Schoenfield: Well, no doubt a lot of agents, players and front offices would love for Ohtani to sign in Nashville. Once he’s off the board, the teams that went after him and failed will then turn their attention to their next options, which could lead to some escalating offers for the likes of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Cody Bellinger. So for the sake of moving this winter along, let’s hope it happens and there’s a big news conference — even if we know Ohtani isn’t one for the spotlight. And who will host that news conference? I’ll stick with the Dodgers.


Ohtani aside, who will be the biggest name to sign (or get traded) in Nashville?

Gonzalez: Juan Soto. The expectation from rival executives heading into the offseason was that the San Diego Padres would eventually trade him, and some have gotten the sense lately that it could happen relatively soon. If it doesn’t happen over the weekend, it could next week. At the very least, Soto trade talk will continue to dominate the conversation.

Olney: Soto. He’s a future Hall of Famer and expensive, and despite what the Padres and agent Scott Boras have presented publicly, there is an industry-wide expectation that financial pressures will compel San Diego to deal him. Interestingly, rival executives report that the Padres are looking for inexpensive major league or major league-ready players in return, to bolster San Diego’s effort to contend in 2024. With the passing of owner Peter Seidler, who was a great advocate for A.J. Preller, the Padres’ GM may be in a prove-it type season next year with his new bosses and the need to win.

Rogers: Knowing that Preller works a bit mysteriously, I’ll take the field over Soto. OK, that’s a bit broad. I’ll go with Dylan Cease and/or Tyler Glasnow. Both are as good as gone. Once the Atlanta Braves add that one more prospect to upgrade their existing offer, Cease — a Georgia native — will go home to pitch.

Doolittle: Most everybody else seems to be going with Soto, and that makes a lot of sense to me. But just to be contrarian, I’ll say Josh Hader and that he’ll sign with the Texas Rangers. Then we can start planning for that Hader/Travis Jankowski mullet contest, assuming the Rangers don’t let the outfielder get away. It’ll be the biggest draw of the year at Globe Life Field.

Schoenfield: I’ll go with Soto as well. The Padres have so many moving parts this offseason — they have to replace Snell, Hader, Nick Martinez (who signed with the Cincinnati Reds this week) and Seth Lugo, four pitchers who combined for 67 starts, 30 wins and 34 saves — that making a decision on Soto is necessary just to help them figure out the rest of their moves.


What is the one rumor that will dominate the week?

Gonzalez: It’s all going to be about high-impact starting pitching, from Yamamoto to reigning AL Cy Young winner Snell to some of the big arms being dangled on the trade front (Cease, Glasnow, Corbin Burnes). Some of the richest teams still need starting pitching, and there is still plenty to choose from.

Olney: It might sound weird, but the Yamamoto negotiations have been underplayed to date. He is in as good a negotiating position as any free agent pitcher since Gerrit Cole, with the richest of the big-market teams all pursuing him aggressively. The Yankees, Dodgers and New York Mets, plus other clubs, are among them, and there seems to be a willingness among these teams to assume extra risk because of his talent and age. One team official involved in the Yamamoto discussions believes the pitcher’s negotiations won’t be resolved until after the winter meetings, but let’s face it — the direction of some of the biggest spenders won’t be fully determined until he picks a team, which is why the specter of Yamamoto will hover over Nashville even if he doesn’t sign.

Rogers: Ohtani, Ohtani, Ohtani. Until he signs, he’s the topic. Fan bases are waiting, marketing and sales departments are waiting, baseball ops departments are waiting. How can he not be the topic, both where will he go and for how much? Unless he signs on Day 1 of the winter meetings, it’s going to build all week. After that, the amount of trade rumors will be larger than normal, considering how many good players are likely to move. Free agency (outside of Ohtani) will have its moment, but not necessarily at the meetings. Trade talk will percolate while we wait on Shohei.

Doolittle: I can imagine all manner of Soto rumors. The thing is, as good as he is, it’s hard to truly construct a fair value trade that works for the Padres, assuming their aim is to convert him into multiple players who can deepen their MLB roster. We’re still talking about getting him for one season, and the teams that might want him to put themselves over the top will prefer to deal prospects instead of major leaguers. If the Padres don’t want prospects, then where do they turn? This scenario changes if San Diego is mainly motivated by a desire to clear payroll. This doesn’t seem like Preller’s way, especially since he kind of needs to win, and soon. Everyone wants to drop Soto onto the Yankees, but it seems way more complicated than that to me. Yes, moving Soto for prospects clears space for free agent adds, but that can get dicey if you’re talking about matching value for value for a team that wants to contend, especially given a light free agent class. I do think Soto will be traded, but it’s a really complicated proposition.

Schoenfield: All the front-line starting pitching available in trades. Then there are the potential ripple effects. If Burnes is traded, do the Milwaukee Brewers then make closer Devin Williams available? If the White Sox trade Cease, does that lead to a complete teardown … maybe even including Luis Robert, who, given his years of team control (four) and reasonable salary, has more trade value than Soto?

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Ohtani takes Miz deep but phenom fans 12 in win

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Ohtani takes Miz deep but phenom fans 12 in win

MILWAUKEE — Shohei Ohtani greeted Jacob Misiorowski with a leadoff homer, but the Milwaukee Brewers‘ rookie phenom got the last word.

After giving up Ohtani’s 431-foot blast, Misiorowski responded with another dominant outing. He struck out a career-high 12 batters — including two-way superstar Ohtani in the third inning — to lead the Brewers to a 3-1 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Tuesday night.

“It’s Shohei Ohtani,” Misiorowski said. “You kind of expect [that]. It’s cool to see him do it in action, but it fires me up even more coming back the next at-bat and striking him out. I’m right there. I think it was a moment of like, ‘OK, now we go.'”

Misiorowski, whose fastball routinely tops 100 mph, threw an 88.2 mph curveball on an 0-2 count to Ohtani, who crushed it for his 31st homer. That’s the most by a Dodgers player before the All-Star break.

It was the 21st career leadoff homer for the three-time MVP, who struck out swinging on a curveball in the third and walked to start the sixth. That was the only walk given up by Misiorowski, who scattered four hits.

“Really good stuff, aggressive in the zone,” Ohtani said through an interpreter. “But what really stood out to me was his command and control.”

Misiorowski outdueled three-time Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw, who surpassed 3,000 career strikeouts in his previous outing. Asked Monday about his matchup with Misiorowski, Kershaw said he only knew that the 6-foot-7 right-hander threw hard.

“I know him now, huh?” Kershaw said Tuesday. “That was super impressive. That was unbelievable. It was really special. Everything. Obviously the velo, but he’s got four pitches, commands the ball. I don’t know how you hit that, honestly. That’s just really tough.”

Misiorowski was glad to get Kershaw’s attention.

“I saw something online that he didn’t now who I was, so I hope he knows me now,” Misiorowski said. “It’s kind of cool.”

In five starts since the Brewers called him up from the minors, Misiorowski has already beaten Kershaw and 2024 NL Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes. In another outing, Misiorowski carried a perfect game into the seventh inning.

“He’s just broken the shell,” Brewers manager Pat Murphy said. “He’s just out of the egg, all arms and legs. He’s still got gooey stuff coming off, you can see it, all arms and legs, but there’s something special about him.”

The numbers would indicate as much. Misiorowski is 4-1 with a 2.81 ERA and has given up only 12 hits in 25⅔ innings.

He topped out at 101.6 mph and threw 20 pitches of at least 100 on Tuesday. He also threw 19 curveballs after using curves only 10% of the time before Tuesday.

He was coming off his only shaky performance, giving up five runs — including a grand slam by Brandon Nimmo — and three walks over 3⅔ innings Wednesday in a 7-3 loss to the New York Mets.

It looked as if it might be more of the same after Ohtani went deep. Misiorowski responded by striking out 12 of the next 16 batters.

“I think that’s my job, is to figure it out on the fly,” he said. “I feel like I did it tonight.”

He got out of a jam in the sixth. The Dodgers trailed 2-1 and had runners on second and third with one out, but third baseman Andruw Monasterio fielded a grounder and threw out Ohtani at the plate, and Misiorowski retired Michael Conforto on a grounder.

Misiorowski pumped his fist as he headed toward the dugout, then watched the Brewers’ bullpen nail down the win.

“It’s so satisfying,” Misiorowski said. “It’s just a dream come true, to do what I did.”

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Giants walk off on Bailey’s inside-the-park homer

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Giants walk off on Bailey's inside-the-park homer

SAN FRANCISCO — Patrick Bailey hit a three-run, inside-the-park home run with one out in the ninth inning, lifting the San Francisco Giants to a 4-3 win over the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday night.

Bailey became just the third catcher in MLB history to hit a walk-off, inside-the-park home run, joining the Chicago Cubs’ Pat Moran in 1907 and the Washington Nationals’ Bennie Tate in 1926.

Bailey’s homer would have been an outside-the-park home run in 29 of 30 ballparks, with Oracle Park being the exception.

Mike Yastrzemski reached base twice and scored to help the Giants to their sixth win in seven games.

Casey Schmitt began the rally with a leadoff double. After Jung Hoo Lee popped out, Wilmer Flores lined a single to center.

Bailey, who grounded into a double play and struck out in two of his previous at-bats, then smashed a 1-0 fastball from Jordan Romano (1-4) into right-center field that ricocheted off the brick part of the wall.

Ryan Walker (2-3) retired one batter, with two on in the top of the ninth, to earn the win.

Phillies All-Star Kyle Schwarber had two hits, including his team-leading 28th home run.

Schwarber flew out, struck out and was hit by a pitch before homering off Giants reliever Spencer Bivens into McCovey Cove. Brandon Marsh, who singled as a pinch hitter leading off the inning, scored on the play.

Two days after being named an All-Star for the second time in his career, Robbie Ray gave up four hits and one run in 5⅔ innings.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Mets’ Mendoza: Snubbed Soto ‘an All-Star for us’

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Mets' Mendoza: Snubbed Soto 'an All-Star for us'

BALTIMORE — The New York Mets consider Juan Soto to be a bona fide All-Star, despite the snub he received from those who selected the National League squad for the Midsummer Classic on July 15.

Soto, in his first year with the Mets, has performed well enough to earn the respect of his manager and teammates. In their opinion, he’s deserving of a place in the All-Star Game next week in Atlanta.

“He’s an All-Star for us,” manager Carlos Mendoza said Tuesday night after the Mets beat Baltimore 7-6. “It’s frustrating, but I’m hoping in the next couple of days we hear something and he makes it.”

Soto drove in the winning run with a sharp single on the first pitch of the 10th inning. That capped a night in which he went 3 for 5 to raise his batting average to .269 with 21 homers and 52 RBIs.

Soto has walked 72 times, by far the most in the majors, but he can also lash out at a pitcher when necessary.

“He’s got a pretty good understanding of what the pitchers are trying to do to him,” Mendoza said. “There is his awareness of the game, he’s going to see pitchers. There are times when he’s going to be aggressive. Tonight was one of those nights. First pitch in the 10th, he’s attacking.”

Soto made the All-Star team as a member of the Nationals, Padres and Yankees each year since 2021. The streak appears to be over. But his teammates believe he deserves to go.

“What he done all year is just incredible, and the results are good enough,” Mets starting pitcher Clay Holmes said. “The consistency he’s showed up with, at the at-bats he’s taken, is more than an All-Star. He’s one of the best in the game and a big part of our lineup.”

Soto seems rather philosophical about the snub.

“Sometimes, you’re going to make it and sometimes you don’t,” he told reporters after Sunday’s loss to the Yankees. “It’s just part of baseball.”

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