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The risks of the Federal Reserve moving too far with interest rate hikes, and slowing the economy more than necessary, have become “more balanced” with those of not moving high enough to control inflation, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday in remarks reaffirming the central bank’s intent to be cautious in its upcoming monetary policy decisions.

Noting that a key measure of inflation averaged 2.5% over the six months ending in October, near the Fed’s 2% target, Powell said it was clear that monetary policy was slowing the economy as expected with a benchmark overnight interest rate “well into restrictive territory.”

“The full effects of our tightening have likely not yet been felt. The forcefulness of our response to inflation also helped maintain the Fed’s hard-won credibility, ensuring that the public’s expectations of future inflation remain well-anchored,” Powell said in remarks at Spelman College in Atlanta. “Having come so far so quickly, the (Federal Open Market Committee) is moving forward carefully, as the risks of under- and over-tightening are becoming more balanced.”

Powell reiterated, as his colleagues have in recent weeks, that it was still too early to declare the Fed’s inflation fight finished, with prices rising 3.0% annually by the measure the central bank uses to set its target.

Prices as of October were up 3.5% when stripped of food and energy costs, a measure the Fed sees as a better guide of inflation’s trend.

“We are prepared to tighten policy further if it becomes appropriate to do so,” he said.

But his remarks also reflected increased confidence that the current 5.25%-5.50% policy rate may well be adequate to complete the job.

The Fed meets on Dec. 12-13 and is expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged for the third meeting in a row.

Powell also fielded questions after his speech in a conversation with Spelman College President Helene Gayle.

The Fed chief said policymakers still regard the uncertainty in the economic outlook to be “unusually elevated,” one factor in their insistence that rates may still need to rise.

But he also said that the broad outlines of the hoped-for “soft landing” seemed to be falling into place, with the job market still strong even as growth in spending and output slows and price pressures abate.

“My colleagues and I anticipate that growth in spending and output will slow over the next year, as the effects of the pandemic and the reopening fade and as restrictive monetary policy weighs on aggregate demand,” Powell said.

“The pace at which the economy is creating new jobs remains strong, and has been slowing toward a more sustainable level … Wage growth remains high, but has been gradually moving toward levels that would be more consistent with 2% price inflation over time, and real wages are growing again as inflation declines,” he said.

Shortly before Powell delivered his remarks, a key reading on the health of theUS manufacturing sectorshowed activity there remained subdued and factory employment declined.

The Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index has now indicated the sector has been in contraction for 13 straight months, the longest such run in more than two decades, as demand for goods continues to soften.

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Jaguar Land Rover was not insured for cyber attack, journal claims

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Jaguar Land Rover was not insured for cyber attack, journal claims

Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) “failed to finalise” a cyber insurance deal before it was struck by hackers last month, forcing a halt to production and threatening the future of its supply chain, according to an industry journal.

The Insurer, citing three insurance sector sources, said Britain’s biggest carmaker was still in negotiations over cover before the cyber attack at the end of August.

It opens the prospect that the company faces footing the bill for the hacking by itself.

Losses will easily run into many hundreds of millions of pounds, with its global factory shutdown set to last for a month at least.

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JLR shutdown extended

Marks and Spencer, which was targeted back in April, said it expected that the estimated £300m bill it was facing from the disruption would be largely offset by the cyber insurance cover it had taken out.

As frantic efforts continue at JLR to recover its systems, the government is exploring ways to support JLR’s supply chain and the 200,000 jobs within it.

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One idea under consideration, according to ITV News, was taxpayer money being used to purchase parts.

These components could then be sold back to JLR as its manufacturing operations got back up to speed, resulting in no direct losses for the public purse.

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Inside factory affected by Jaguar Land Rover shutdown

The “just-in-time” nature of automotive production means that many suppliers had little choice but to shut down immediately after JLR announced its manufacturing freeze.

Industry sources estimate that around 25% of suppliers have already taken steps to pause production and lay off workers, many of them by “banking hours” they will have to work in future.

Union demands for a COVID-style furlough scheme have not been taken up by ministers, who have said that support to date has come only from JLR.

Industry minister Chris McDonald said on a visit to a West Midlands manufacturer on Tuesday he was “supremely confident” that JLR would get through the cyber attack.

He added: “What I really want this to be is a wake-up call to British industry. I’m affronted by this attack on British industry. This is a serious attack on a flagship of British industry.”

Jaguar Land Rover said it declined to comment on commercial matters.

The government has also been approached for comment.

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What does Andy Burnham want?

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What does Andy Burnham want?

👉Listen to Politics at Sam and Anne’s on your podcast app👈

Is Labour’s king of the north about to challenge the prime minister in Westminster?

After an explosive interview, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, says MPs are urging him to challenge Sir Keir Starmer.

Sam and Anne consider:

  • What vision Mr Burnham has for the country?

  • Can the PM match him and how could he respond?

  • How much will it impact political and policy narrative ahead of Labour’s party conference in Liverpool next week?

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Politics

Save the high street: Starmer’s plan to block fake barbers, betting and vape shops

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Save the high street: Starmer's plan to block fake barbers, betting and vape shops

Sir Keir Starmer is to announce a “Pride in Place” programme with funding for over 330 disadvantaged communities as part of a fightback against Reform UK.

The money will come alongside new powers for local groups to seize boarded-up shops, save derelict pubs and block gambling and vape stores on high streets, the government said.

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The plan aims to address the sense of isolation in deprived communities, which Labour insiders believe is feeding the rise of Reform UK.

A Labour source described the programme as “absolutely essential” and “transformative”.

They told Sky News: “Reform is trying to divide communities, Labour wants to empower them, and we are giving them the tools and resources to turn them around.”

The full list of places that will receive the cash boost, and how much they will get, will be confirmed by the prime minister on Thursday.

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The money is part of the communities funding plan announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves in her June spending review, which promised new investment for 350 deprived areas across the UK “to improve parks, youth facilities, swimming pools and libraries”.

Labour insiders hope plan can fight off threat of Reform UK
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Labour insiders hope plan can fight off threat of Reform UK

The government said at the time these areas included the 75 places previously named in the Plan for Neighbourhoods, each of which will get £20m of funding over the next 10 years.

The Spending Review named another 20 “pilot neighbourhoods” in England to receive the same amount of funding, mainly in the north or the Midlands, as well as five other pilots across the rest of the UK.

Sir Keir is expected to announce the rest on Thursday.

Speaking ahead of that announcement, the new housing secretary, Steve Reed, said the money will allow local people to “decide how best to restore pride in their neighbourhoods, not us in Westminster”.

He added: “That’s what real patriotism looks like: building up our communities and choosing renewal over division.”

How will the funding work?

The funding will be allocated to neighbourhood boards made up of community leaders and stakeholders, who will work closely with local councils, it is understood.

They will be granted Community Right to Buy and Compulsory Purchase Powers, allowing them to buy assets like grassroots football clubs, seize derelict buildings and save local pubs, the government said.

Councils will also be given powers to block betting shops, vape stores and fake barbers.

The programme draws similarities with Tony Blair’s New Deal for Communities (NDC), a 10-year regeneration drive that targeted 39 of the most deprived neighbourhoods in England from 2001.

A simillar regeneration plan under Toby Blair was largely seen as successful
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A simillar regeneration plan under Toby Blair was largely seen as successful

An independent evaluation found NDC partnerships delivered improvements across several indicators, including crime, education and health. The biggest change was how people felt about their neighbourhoods as places to live.

Each area had around £50m of investment under the former Labour prime minister’s programme, but these were geographically bigger than the ones the government is now targeting, it is understood.

The “Pride in Place” Programme has been informed by the work of the Independent Commission on Neighbourhoods (ICON), launched in September last year to review the state of England’s neighbourhoods.

ICON identified 613 “mission critical” neighbourhoods – those they said needed the most urgent attention to make progress on Sir Keir’s “missions” for government.

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The bulk of these were in post-industrial areas in northern England, though high need was also identified in the West Midlands and coastal towns such as Blackpool and Clacton – the latter being the seat of Reform UK leader Nigel Farage.

Many of the sites to be announced are expected to contain a mission-critical neighbourhood within them.

Baroness Hilary Armstrong, a former Labour minister and chair of ICON, said: “If residents start to see positive, tangible changes in their neighbourhoods, this should start to restore the public’s faith in the power of government to do good.”

It comes at a critical time for Sir Keir, who has faced questions over whether he can survive after spending most of his first year in office languishing behind Reform UK in the polls.

Labour MPs have been lobbying for the funding for some time, expressing concern that Number 10’s mission to grow the economy with big infrastructure investments will not directly benefit people in areas that look and feel “left behind”.

Luke Akehurst, the Labour MP for North Durham, told Sky News: “This is what Labour governments are all about – properly funding the areas of the county that most need help.”

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