The world’s energy future is being decided at COP28 – these few words could decide how it unfolds
Right now in Dubai, pretty much every government in the world is debating what kind of energy we will all be using in just 25 years’ time, which will influence the climate we live in and the air we breathe.
A very early draft version of the final treaty released today moots a plan to “phase out fossil fuels” – but radically different ideas are on the table.
The text will morph as negotiators thrash it out over the next few weeks, and will fight right down to the wire.
Here are a few small, key words that are fuelling major tensions, and could shape what kind of world we live in.
Fossil fuels: to ‘phase out’, or ‘phase down’ – that is the question
Small, fragile economies that are already being battered by climate change want a “phase out of fossil fuels”.
This is the most ambitious option on the table, and the previous 27 COP summits have so far barely addressed a reduction on fossil fuels.
At COP26 in Glasgow, countries agreed to “phase down coal”, and at COP27 in Egypt last year about 80 countries lobbied to expand that to all fossil fuels, but were defeated.
“Phase out” may morph into “phase down”, which is regarded a softer version.
Environmentalists want a deadline including those phrases, so governments can be held accountable on their progress.
There are lots of other words in the mix that soften this phase out/phase down language.
‘Just’
Vulnerable nations in particular are pushing for a “just” phase out, in the interests of fairness.
“Climate justice” advocates the idea that developed countries like the UK, USA and Norway have already got rich from fossil fuels, and so ought to ditch them faster than developing nations like Nigeria or South Africa, which have less cash and fewer options for their economic development.
Unabated
The UK, US and the 27-strong EU bloc are among those lobbying for a phase out of “unabated” fossil fuels – providing much more wiggle room.
Unabated coal, oil or gas power is when these fossil fuels are burned without the technology to capture their emissions.
That is how virtually every power plant or emitting factory in the world runs at the moment, as the technology exists but has proved extremely difficult to get off the ground.
Campaigners call it a “fairytale solution”.
The scientific consensus assimilated by IPCC scientists, says that without abatement, limiting warming to agreed levels means by 2050, global coal use must fall 100%, oil by 60% and gas 70%, compared with 2019 levels.
These findings were signed off by all governments in the world.
Demand for all three is still rising, though peak demand is in sight by 2030. Residual emissions need “abating”, but this is supposed to be reserved only as a last resort, for industries like aviation that are as yet impossible to get off fossil fuels.
CCUS, CDR
These are technologies that “abate” emissions or suck them from the air.
CCUS stands for “carbon capture, usage and storage” and refers to a range of different equipments that prevent carbon dioxide from things like power plants or manufacturing facilities from reaching the atmosphere, by capturing it from the source.
It is then “used” in processes like injecting it back into oil wells to extract further oil, or “stored” underground in rock or empty gas fields, for example.
Carbon dioxide removals sucks the greenhouse gas from the atmosphere, as opposed to the source.
Major oil producers like Saudi Arabia lobby hard for these solutions, which in theory would allow them to continue producing at the same volumes for years to come.
Professor Johan Rockström, who runs Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and is a member of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group, said: “To be clear, CDR needs to be used as an additionality. It cannot be used as a way of moving slow on oil and gas.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
What is carbon capture?
Predominantly
The EU wants – as well as a phase out of “unabated” fossil fuels – an energy sector “predominantly free of
fossil fuels well ahead of 2050″.
Again, “predominantly” allows for some room to manoeuvre, so this word may pop up in different places in subsequent versions.
Those outside the world of COP may be raising their eyebrows to read that counties could spend hours fighting over a word like “predominantly”.
A sceptical interpretation of this is that it allows countries to get away with doing less – these sceptics might be right.
But it’s at least a testament to the fact these negotiations – flawed though the process is – matter; otherwise, countries wouldn’t fight so hard over them.
For example, if you’re from low-lying, island nation Palau, these decisions influence how quickly you lose swathes of your land underwater.
They rose to their feet in ecstatic surprise, shouting “heydar, heydar” – a Shia victory chant.
This was the first public appearance of their supreme leader since Israel began attacking their country.
He emerged during evening prayers in his private compound. He said nothing but looked stern and resolute as he waved to the crowd.
He has spent the last weeks sequestered in a bunker, it is assumed, for his safety following numerous death threats from Israel and the US.
His re-emergence suggests a return to normality and a sense of defiance that we have witnessed here on the streets of Tehran too.
Earlier, we had filmed as men in black marched through the streets of the capital to the sound of mournful chants and the slow beat of drums, whipping their backs with metal flails.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Defiance on streets of Tehran
This weekend they mark the Shia festival of Ashura as they have for 14 centuries. But this year has poignant significance for Iranians far more than most.
The devout remember the betrayal and death of Imam Hussein as if it happened yesterday. We filmed men and women weeping as they worshipped at the Imamzadeh Saleh Shrine in northern Tehran.
The armies of the Caliph Yazid killed the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad in the seventh-century Battle of Karbala.
Shiite Muslims mark the anniversary every year and reflect on the virtue it celebrates, of resistance against oppression and injustice.
But more so than ever in the wake of Israel and America’s attacks on their country.
The story is one of prevailing over adversity and deception. A sense of betrayal is keenly felt here among people and officials.
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
Many Iranians believe they were lured into pursuing diplomacy as part of a ruse by the US.
Iran believed it was making diplomatic progress in talks with America it hoped could lead to a deal. Then Israel launched its attacks and, instead of condemning them, the US joined in.
Death to Israel chants resounded outside the mosque in skies which were filled for 12 days with the sounds of Israeli jets. There is a renewed sense of defiance here.
One man told us: “The lesson to be learned from Hussein is not to give in to oppression even if it is the most powerful force in the world.”
A woman was dismissive about the US president. “I don’t think about Trump, nobody likes him. He always wants to attack too many countries.”
Pictures on billboards nearby draw a line between Imam Hussein’s story and current events. The seventh-century imam on horseback alongside images of modern missiles and drones from the present day.
Other huge signs remember the dead. Iran says almost 1,000 people were killed in the strikes, many of them women and children.
👉Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim on your podcast app👈
Officially Iran is projecting defiance but not closing the door to diplomacy.
Government spokeswoman Dr Fatemeh Mohajerani told Sky News that Israel should not even think about attacking again.
“We are very strong in defence and as state officials have announced, this time Israel will receive an even stronger response compared to previous times,” she said.
“We hope that Israel will not make such a mistake.”
But there is also a hint of conciliation: Senior Iranian officials have told Sky News that back-channel efforts are under way to explore new talks with the US.
Israel had hoped its attacks could topple the Iranian leadership. That proved unfounded, the government is in control here.
For many Iranians, it seems quite the opposite happened – the 12-day war has brought them closer together.
To the sound of mournful chants and the slow beat of drums, they march, whipping their backs with metal flails.
It is an ancient ceremony going back almost 14 centuries – the Shia commemoration of Ashura.
But this year in particular has poignant significance for Iranians.
The devout remember the betrayal and death of the Imam Hussein as if it happened yesterday.
Iranians gather ahead of Ashura
We filmed men and women weep as they worshipped at the Imamzadeh Saleh Shrine in northern Tehran.
The grandson of the Prophet Muhammad was killed by the armies of the Caliph Yazid in the seventh century Battle of Karbala.
Shia Muslims mark the anniversary every year and reflect on the virtue it celebrates – of resistance against oppression and injustice. But more so than ever this year, in the wake of Israel and America’s attacks on their country.
The story is one of prevailing over adversity and deception. A sense of betrayal is keenly felt here by people and officials.
Men and women weeped as they worshipped at the Imamzadeh Saleh Shrine
Many Iranians believe they were lured into pursuing diplomacy as part of a ruse by the US.
Iran believed it was making diplomatic progress in talks with America, which it hoped could lead to a deal. Then Israel launched its attacks and, instead of condemning them, the US joined in.
“Death to Israel” chants resounded outside the mosque in skies that for 12 days were filled with the sounds of Israeli jets.
There is a renewed sense of defiance here.
One man told us: “The lesson to be learned from Hussein is not to give in to oppression, even if it is the most powerful force in the world.”
‘I don’t think about Trump. Nobody likes him,’ one woman tells Sky News
A woman was dismissive about the US president.
“I don’t think about Trump. Nobody likes him. He always wants to attack too many countries.”
Pictures on billboards nearby link Imam Hussein’s story and current events. They show the seventh century imam on horseback alongside images of modern missiles and drones from the present day.
Other huge signs remember the dead. Iran says almost 1,000 people were killed in the strikes, many of them women and children.
Officially Iran is projecting defiance, but not closing the door to diplomacy.
Government spokeswoman Dr Fatemeh Mohajerani told Sky News that Israel should not even think about attacking again.
“We are very strong in defence, and as state officials have announced, this time Israel will receive an even stronger response compared to previous times. We hope that Israel will not make such a mistake.”
Dr Fatemeh Mohajerani said it would be a mistake for Israel to attack again
But there is also a hint of conciliation. Senior Iranian officials have told Sky News back-channel efforts are under way to explore new talks with the US.
Israel had hoped its attacks could topple the Iranian leadership. Those hopes proved unfounded. The government is in control here.
For many Iranians it seems quite the opposite happened – the 12-day war has brought them closer together.
World
Two security workers injured after grenades thrown at aid site, Gaza Humanitarian Foundation says
Two American security workers in Gaza were injured after grenades were thrown during food distribution in Khan Younis, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) has said.
In a statement, the US and Israeli-backed aid group said a targeted terrorist attack was carried out at one of its sites in southern Gaza on Saturday morning.
The two Americans injured “are receiving medical treatment and are in stable condition,” it said, adding that the delivery of aid was “otherwise successful” and that “no local aid workers or civilians were harmed”.
GHF didn’t say exactly when the incident happened but claimed Hamas was behind the attack, adding: “GHF has repeatedly warned of credible threats from Hamas, including explicit plans to target American personnel, Palestinian aid workers, and the civilians who rely on our sites for food.
“Today’s attack tragically affirms those warnings.”
Later, the aid group posted a picture on social media, which it said showed “fragments of a grenade packed with ball bearings” that was used in the attack.
Asked by Sky’s US partner network, NBC News, whether the two injured individuals were responsible for handing out aid or were responsible for providing security, GHF said they were “American security workers” and “two American veterans.”
The aid group did not provide specific evidence that Hamas was behind the attack.
The US and Israeli-backed group has been primarily responsible for aid distribution since Israel lifted its 11-week blockade of the Gaza Strip in May.
Read more:
Hamas gives ‘positive’ response to ceasefire proposal
Outcry as Israeli strike hits school
94 killed in Israeli strikes in Gaza, health staff say
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
It comes after Sky News analysis showed GHF aid distributions are associated with a significant increase in deaths in Gaza.
According to Gaza’s health ministry, 600 Palestinians have been killed while seeking aid from GHF sites as of 3 July, which charities and the UN have branded “death traps”.
Meanwhile, the Associated Press has reported that Israeli-backed American contractors guarding GHF aid centres in Gaza are using live ammunition and stun grenades.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Contractors allege colleagues ‘fired on Palestinians’
GHF has vehemently denied the accusations, adding that it investigated AP’s allegations and found them to be “categorically false”.
Israel’s military added that it fires only warning shots and is investigating reports of civilian harm.
It denies deliberately shooting at any innocent civilians and says it’s examining how to reduce “friction with the population” in the areas surrounding the distribution centres.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike