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Back in January 2022, Rishi Sunak made a promise to the British people and his party that he would stop small boat crossings.

Immigration – particularly illegal migration – was an issue that mattered to his voters and he insisted that he would be a prime minister of delivery.

Politics Live: Home secretary can’t guarantee migrants will be sent to Rwanda before next election

But the past few weeks have revealed the yawning gap between his rhetoric and reality as Mr Sunak now battles to keep his policy on track against the backdrop of a parliamentary party that looks like it could be about to go into freefall.

For he has ended the year more than 20 points behind in the polls, with net migration at a record high and his party on the precipice of a huge blowup over how he responds to the Supreme Court blocking plans to send asylum seekers to Rwanda.

The Conservative Party hasn’t just broken its 2019 manifesto promise to get migration below 250,000 but totally destroyed it, with migration at an estimated 745,000 in the year to December 2022.

Now the prime minister is trying to get back on track with a three-part migration plan.

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On Monday, he published a five-point plan to get net migration back below 500,000 – the figure he inherited when he became prime minister last October. It’s still beyond the promise his predecessor Boris Johnson made to voters in 2019, but it is at least a start.

Far more thorny is how he might handle his most recent promise to voters – getting flights to Rwanda off the ground after the Supreme Court ruled last month that Rwanda was not a safe country.

On Tuesday the prime minister dispatched his new home secretary to Kigali on Tuesday to sign an update treaty which James Cleverly says should address the judges’ concerns.

But it is the third act, the emergency legislation to declare Rwanda safe and prevent further court challenges – that is the most politically significant for the prime minister who is struggling to maintain any authority over this party as the election gets closer but the gap between two parties in the polls remains desperately wide.

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Cleverly can’t guarantee that migrants will arrive in Rwanda from the UK before the next election

And now his MPs are in open revolt, with many fearful that he might fail to deliver on getting flights to Rwanda and another chunk fearful of what he might do to ensure they do. And both sides are now making their positions public as tensions over what Mr Sunak might do go into overdrive.

On the right of the party a trio of groupings – the European Research Group, the New Conservatives and the Commonsense Group – are teaming up tonight to discuss the policy and their position.

Perhaps up to 100 MPs in total, members I have spoken to are clear: the prime minister must include a controversial “notwithstanding” clause to disapply UK’s international and domestic human rights obligations when it comes to Rwanda policy.

Their cheerleaders are the former home secretary Suella Braverman and the immigration minister and once close ally of the prime minister, Robert Jenrick. One former cabinet minister told me on Tuesday that Mr Jenrick was now on resignation watch as he pushes for these measures against others in cabinet – Justice Secretary Alex Chalk and Attorney General Victoria Prentis – who are concerned about the UK withdrawing from international obligations.

“I think the PM has underestimated Rob on this. He thought that this stuff was all being pushed by Suella and Rob was just going along with it, and now he learns that it is actually what Rob believes in,” said the source, adding that Mr Jenrick could quit if the PM doesn’t embrace this option.

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And then this evening the One Nation caucus, which has a membership of 106 MPs, put out its own release arguing that the government can reduce migration without undermining the ECHR, and warned of trouble if the prime minister presses ahead.

“Leaving the ECHR..would be a mistake and doesn’t have public support,” said Stephen Hammond in a statement “Furthermore, moderates and mainstream Conservatives MPs may struggle to support the so-called full-fat deal.”

I think this is what you’d describe as being between a rock and hard place, with the prime minister destined to provoke a battle with a sizeable chunk of his backbenchers whatever he decides.

He will no doubt have front and centre of his mind his pledge to the British voting public when he decides how to proceed: how to make the legislation as watertight as he can in order to get those planes off to Rwanda by the spring.

The problem is, it’s not in his gift: his emergency laws must pass through both Houses of Parliament and then survive the inevitable legal wrangling that will follow.

When he made the pledge to stop small boats in January it seemed hard enough, and now he closes out the year with another promise he will not only struggle to keep but looks certain to further split his parliamentary party.

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Part of Birmingham ‘can’t be no-go area for Jews’, cabinet minister tells Sky News

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Part of Birmingham 'can't be no-go area for Jews', cabinet minister tells Sky News

Aston in Birmingham can’t become a “no-go area” for Jews, a senior cabinet minister has told Sky News, amid controversy over fans of an Israeli football club being barred from attending a match next month.

Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said he “profoundly” disagrees with the “approach” taken by a local MP who started a petition calling for fans of Maccabi Tel Aviv to be banned from the Aston Villa game, saying it “cannot be the basis on which our country operates”.

But while he said the government is “working with the relevant authorities” to overturn the move, he can not guarantee it will happen.

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Villa Park. PA
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Villa Park. PA

Alongside politicians of all parties, Sir Keir Starmer has strongly criticised the decision, calling it “wrong”, and the government has said it will work with local authorities to ensure both sets of fans can attend.

Speaking to Sky’s Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips, Mr Miliband said work is still ongoing.

“We are working with the relevant authorities on this issue, he said. “I think the principle here is we do not want a situation where people of a particular faith or from a particular country can’t come to a football match because of their faith, because of where they’re coming from.”

Asked if Maccabi Tel Aviv fans will definitely be able to attend the game, the minister replied: “I’m not going to say come what may, but I’m giving you a very, very clear indication of what we are working towards, which is that, you know, the fans from both teams can attend the match.”

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Miliband on Israeli football fan ban

Phillips put to Mr Miliband that a petition to ban their fans, launched by local independent MP Ayoub Khan, has been signed by nearly 4,000 people. It states the upcoming game is “not a normal match” because the Israeli fans would be arriving in “Aston, a diverse and predominantly Muslim community”.

Asked if Aston is now a no-go area for Jews, Mr Miliband replied: “No and it can’t be. And I’m very, very clear about that.

“I believe we as a country, we pride ourselves on our diversity, but also our tolerance and our hatred of prejudice, frankly. And so we cannot have a situation where any area is a no-go area for people of a particular religion or from a particular country.”

Asked if the local MP was justified in what he wrote, Mr Miliband replied: “No. I profoundly disagree with that approach, with what is being said in that petition, because that cannot be the basis on which our country operates.”

This isn’t how the vast majority of people in the UK operate, he added. “So let’s not take this petition and say it paints a picture of our country.”

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Aston Villa fan says he has received death threats.

Top Tory criticises ‘sectarian politics’

His Tory counterpart, Claire Coutinho, was highly critical of the petition, telling Phillips: “I think politicians need to have the courage to name some of the problems that this country is facing. And one of those problems is political Islam.

“Now, that’s not to say the moderate Muslim community are a problem in Britain, but we have seen in the past extremist Islamism […] and now we are seeing a movement of people – last election, five MPs elected – simply on sectarian politics. That may be higher at the next election.

“So we have to grip this, and part of that is dealing with rising antisemitism. But part of that is dealing with integration.”

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Tory calls out ‘lack of integration’

The senior Tory MP described the ban overall as a “disgrace”, saying: “I think the message that is being sent to Jewish people in this country is that they’re not welcome here.

“This has always been a safe haven for Jewish people, and I think to say that we could not possibly police Israeli Jewish fans to watch a football match safely is reinforcing that message that Jews are not welcome here. And I think that is wrong.”

Match classified as ‘high risk’

In a statement on Thursday, Aston Villa said Birmingham’s Safety Advisory Group (SAG) – which issues safety certificates for every match at the ground – had “formally written to the club and UEFA to advise no away fans will be permitted to attend” the fixture at Villa Park on 6 November, as it had been classified as “high risk”.

The club said police had advised of “public safety concerns outside the stadium bowl and the ability to deal with any potential protests on the night” – a statement that triggered outrage across the political spectrum.

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Will ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans from Aston Villa be lifted?

The move has been condemned by political and Jewish leaders, including Israeli foreign minister Gideon Sa’ar, who called it a “shameful decision”.

The Jewish Leadership Council said it was “perverse” to ban away fans because police can’t guarantee their safety, adding: “Aston Villa should face the consequences of this decision and the match should be played behind closed doors.”

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Sky News has contacted Mr Khan for a response to the comments made this morning.

Former Labour leader and now independent MP Jeremy Corbyn defended his fellow member of the Independent Alliance group in parliament yesterday, writing on X: “Ayoub Khan has been subject to disgusting smears by MPs and journalists, who have wilfully misrepresented his views in order to stoke anger and division.”

He added that he and his colleagues “diligently represent people of all faiths and none in their communities”.

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Chinese tech giants halt Hong Kong stablecoin plans amid Beijing concerns: FT

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Chinese tech giants halt Hong Kong stablecoin plans amid Beijing concerns: FT

Chinese tech giants halt Hong Kong stablecoin plans amid Beijing concerns: FT

Ant Group and JD.com have paused their stablecoin initiatives in Hong Kong after Beijing regulators raised concerns over private firms issuing digital currencies.

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Japan’s FSA weighs allowing banks to hold Bitcoin, other cryptos: Report

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Japan’s FSA weighs allowing banks to hold Bitcoin, other cryptos: Report

Japan’s FSA weighs allowing banks to hold Bitcoin, other cryptos: Report

Japan’s Financial Services Agency is weighing reforms that could let banks hold cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and operate licensed crypto exchanges.

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