Economists forecast 50% recession odds amid stark economic slowdown in 2024

Published

2 years ago

December 6, 2023

admin

The US economy is in for a sharp slowdown in 2024 as a closely watched survey of top economists foresees stubbornly high inflation, a rise in unemployment and a 50% chance of recession.

A slew of headwinds will slow the current quarter’s Gross Domestic Product — a comprehensive measure of economic activity and performance — to a pace of 1.2%, according to the National Association for Business Economics’ latest Outlook Survey released on Monday.

That’s versus a 5.2% annualized rate during the third quarter, the Commerce Department reported — the fastest rate of expansion since the end of 2021. Adjusted for inflation, real GDP increased 2.1%.

Panelists foresee the GDP slowing even further, to 1%, between the fourth quarter of 2023 and the fourth quarter of 2024, NABE President and Morgan Stanley chief economist Ellen Zentner said in the survey, which was earlier reported on by Fox Business.

On the heels of the dismal data, of the 30-plus economists surveyed, one in four said they’re now forecasting a recession, assigning a probability of at least 50%, NABE reported.

The last time the US experienced a financial crisis was in 2008. At the time, of the economic downturn, the federal funds rate was 5.25% while inflation rose 4.1% on an annual basis, per the Consumer Price Index.

Now, inflation isn’t slowing as quickly as the Fed has hoped, and remains well above central bankers’ goal at 3.2%. That’s a trend that will likely remain entrenched during the coming year, according to the survey.

“Panelists anticipate further slowing in core inflation — excluding food and energy costs — but doubt it will reach the Federal Reserve Boards 2% target before year-end 2024,” said NABE Outlook Survey Chair Mervin Jebaraj, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Arkansas.

Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics last month released a weaker-than-expected October jobs report, when the economy only added 150,000 positions — as the unemployment rate came in above the Fed’s 3.8% year-end forecast, at 3.9%.

When November job data comes out on Friday, employers are expected to have added 180,000 positions, while unemployment is expected to hold at 3.9%.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlantas GDPNow forecasting model attributed the impending economic slowdown to a decline in construction spending and manufacturing as labor costs have surged and productivity has waned.

In New York, construction has been hindered by the precipitous 421a property tax exemption, which was given to real estate developers building new multifamily residential housing buildings in New York City before it expired in June 2022.

A lack of 421a, coupled with high borrowing rates, have pumped the brakes on new development.

An economic slowdown is also likely on the horizon as Taylor Swift’s blockbuster concert, “Eras Tour,” leaves the US.

Since Swift’s three-hour show kicked off in March in Arizona, loyal Swifties have shelled out so much for tickets and hotel rooms that the show has spurred growth in the economy of each of the cities its stopped at.

In Pittsburgh, an estimated 24,000 hotel rooms were booked at premium prices by fans making the Eras Tour pilgrimage back in June for the three-hour set, while tourists drummed up more traffic than usual for local businesses, from parking garages to restaurants.

While Swift’s concert continues its 100-plus-city trot around the globe, Beyonce’s “Renaissance” concert has also drawn a slew of fanfare as its embarked on a 56-stop world tour.

The economy will surely miss the so-called “Taylor Swift effect” after the 33-year-old songstress returns stateside to take her final Eras Tour bow in Indianapolis, Ind., in November 2024.

Beyonce, meanwhile, concluded her Renaissance tour on Oct. 1 in Kansas City, Mo.

UK

US-UK trade deal ‘done’, says Trump as he meets Starmer at G7

Published

2 hours ago

June 17, 2025

admin

US-UK trade deal 'done', says Trump as he meets Starmer at G7

The UK-US trade deal has been signed and is “done”, US President Donald Trump has said as he met Sir Keir Starmer at the G7 summit.

The US president told reporters in Canada: “We signed it, and it’s done. It’s a fair deal for both. It’ll produce a lot of jobs, a lot of income.”

Sir Keir said the document “implements” the deal to cut tariffs on cars and aerospace, describing it as a “really important agreement”.

“So this is a very good day for both of our countries – a real sign of strength,” the prime minister added.

Mr Trump added that the UK was “very well protected” against any future tariffs, saying: “You know why? Because I like them”.

However, he did not say whether levies on British steel exports to the US would be set to 0%, saying “we’re gonna let you have that information in a little while”.

What exactly does trade deal being ‘done’ mean?

The government says the US “has committed” to removing tariffs (taxes on imported goods) on UK aerospace goods, such as engines and aircraft parts, which currently stand at 10%.

That is “expected to come into force by the end of the month”.

Tariffs on car imports will drop from 27.5% to 10%, the government says, which “saves car manufacturers hundreds of millions a year, and protects tens of thousands of jobs”.

The White House says there will be a quote of 100,000 cars eligible for import at that level each year.

But on steel, the story is a little more complicated.

The UK is the only country exempted from the global 50% tariff rate on steel – which means the UK rate remains at the original level of 25%.

That tariff was expected to be lifted entirely, but the government now says it will “continue to go further and make progress towards 0% tariffs on core steel products as agreed”.

The White House says the US will “promptly construct a quota at most-favoured-nation rates for steel and aluminium articles”.

Other key parts of the deal include import and export quotas for beef – and the government is keen to emphasise that “any US imports will need to meet UK food safety standards”.

There is no change to tariffs on pharmaceuticals for the moment, and the government says “work will continue to protect industry from any further tariffs imposed”.

The White House says they “committed to negotiate significantly preferential treatment outcomes”.

Mr Trump also praised Sir Keir as a “great” prime minister, adding: “We’ve been talking about this deal for six years, and he’s done what they haven’t been able to do.”

He added: “We’re very longtime partners and allies and friends and we’ve become friends in a short period of time.

“He’s slightly more liberal than me to put it mildly… but we get along.”

Sir Keir added that “we make it work”.

As the pair exited a mountain lodge in the Canadian Rockies where the summit is being held, Mr Trump held up a physical copy of the trade agreement to show reporters.

Several leaves of paper fell from the binding, and Sir Keir quickly stooped to pick them up, saying: “A very important document.”

The US president also appeared to mistakenly refer to a “trade agreement with the European Union” at one point as he stood alongside the British prime minister.

Mr Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs on countries in April. At the time, he announced 10% “reciprocal” rates on all UK exports – as well as separately announced 25% levies on cars and steel.

In a joint televised phone call in May, Sir Keir and Mr Trump announced the UK and US had agreed on a trade deal – but added the details were being finalised.

Ahead of the G7 summit, the prime minister said he would meet Mr Trump for “one-on-one” talks, and added the agreement “really matters for the vital sectors that are safeguarded under our deal, and we’ve got to implement that”.

Entertainment

Doctor to plead guilty to giving Matthew Perry ketamine before Friends star suffered fatal overdose

Published

4 hours ago

June 16, 2025

admin

Doctor to plead guilty to giving Matthew Perry ketamine before Friends star suffered fatal overdose

A doctor in the US has agreed to plead guilty to giving Friends actor Matthew Perry ketamine in the lead up to his death from a fatal overdose, prosecutors have said.

Dr Salvador Plasencia, who will admit to four counts of distribution of ketamine, faces up to a maximum of 40 years in prison.

He is among five people charged in connection with the death of Friends star Perry, who was found dead in his hot tub by his assistant in October 2023.

The medical examiner ruled that ketamine and other factors caused him to lose consciousness and drown.

The actor, 54, had been using the drug through his regular doctor in a legal treatment for depression, but had begun seeking more ketamine than his doctor would give him.

Plasencia is accused of supplying the bulk of Perry’s ketamine in his final weeks. He and three other defendants, including another doctor, agreed to plead guilty in exchange for their cooperation.

Jasmine Sangha, who prosecutors allege was a major ketamine dealer, is alleged to have provided the dose that killed the actor and is the only defendant who has pleaded not guilty.

About a month before the actor’s death, Perry found Plasencia, a doctor who allegedly asked another doctor, Mark Chavez, to obtain the drug for him, according to court filings in the Chavez case.

“I wonder how much this moron will pay,” Plasencia texted Chavez, according to court filings from prosecutors.

The pair who practised in California met up the same day and exchanged at least four vials of ketamine, the filings said.

After selling the drugs to Perry for $4,500 (£3,314), Plasencia allegedly asked Chavez if he could keep supplying them so they could become Perry’s “go-to” prosecutors said.

Perry struggled with addiction for years, dating back to his time on Friends, when he became one of the biggest stars of his generation as Chandler Bing.

He starred alongside Jennifer Aniston, Courteney Cox, Lisa Kudrow, Matt LeBlanc and David Schwimmer for 10 seasons from 1994 to 2004.

Technology

OpenAI wins $200 million U.S. defense contract

Published

4 hours ago

June 16, 2025

admin

OpenAI wins 0 million U.S. defense contract

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman speaks during the Snowflake Summit in San Francisco on June 2, 2025.

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images News | Getty Images

OpenAI has been awarded a $200 million contract to provide the U.S. Defense Department with artificial intelligence tools.

The department announced the one-year contract on Monday, months after OpenAI said it would collaborate with defense technology startup Anduril to deploy advanced AI systems for “national security missions.”

“Under this award, the performer will develop prototype frontier AI capabilities to address critical national security challenges in both warfighting and enterprise domains,” the Defense Department said. It’s the first contract with OpenAI listed on the Department of Defense’s website.

Anduril received a $100 million defense contract in December. Weeks earlier, OpenAI rival Anthropic said it would work with Palantir and Amazon to supply its AI models to U.S. defense and intelligence agencies.

Sam Altman, OpenAI’s co-founder and CEO, said in a discussion with OpenAI board member and former National Security Agency leader Paul Nakasone at a Vanderbilt University event in April that “we have to and are proud to and really want to engage in national security areas.”

OpenAI did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Defense Department specified that the contract is with OpenAI Public Sector LLC, and that the work will mostly occur in the National Capital Region, which encompasses Washington, D.C., and several nearby counties in Maryland and Virginia.

Meanwhile, OpenAI is working to build additional computing power in the U.S. In January, Altman appeared alongside President Donald Trump at the White House to announce the $500 billion Stargate project to build AI infrastructure in the U.S.

The new contract will represent a small portion of revenue at OpenAI, which is generating over $10 billion in annualized sales. In March, the company announced a $40 billion financing round at a $300 billion valuation.

In April, Microsoft, which supplies cloud infrastructure to OpenAI, said the U.S. Defense Information Systems Agency has authorized the use of the Azure OpenAI service with secret classified information.

WATCH: OpenAI hits $10 billion in annual recurring revenue