Shohei Ohtani dominoes: Predicting the moves that will follow once the No. 1 free agent signs
All eyes have been on Shohei Ohtani this offseason — and understandably so, as the two-way star is expected to sign a contract in the range of $500 to $600 million, the largest guarantee in North American sports history.
But his free agency has been shrouded in secrecy, with little known about his career desires, where he wants to play and which team’s he has been talking to — though that changed during MLB’s winter meetings as certain teams acknowledged meeting with Ohtani, despite warnings from Ohtani’s camp about sharing that type of information.
So, as we await Ohtani’s decision, we thought it might be fun to look at how the dominoes will fall. We’ve enlisted the help of ESPN MLB experts Jeff Passan, David Schoenfield, Kiley McDaniel, Bradford Doolittle and Alden Gonzalez to map out the moves that will come once Ohtani picks his team.
For this activity, we’re going to focus on six teams: the Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Angels, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox and New York Mets. We’ll send Ohtani to the Dodgers, Jays and Angels in three separate scenarios and then go through how the other teams will pivot in free agency as a result of Ohtani’s choice.
If Ohtani signs with the … Dodgers
The Dodgers have prepared for the Ohtani sweepstakes for a couple of years now, sitting out last offseason’s free agent extravaganza and lowering their payroll down to about $158 million entering this offseason, nearly $100 million less than 2023’s total (which in turn was lower than where it was in 2021 and 2022). Only Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are signed beyond 2025, giving the Dodgers the long-term flexibility to sign Ohtani — not to mention a fearsome threesome to lead the lineup. How about Ohtani, Betts and Freeman and hitting 1-2-3? Better yet, they can sign Ohtani and still have room to add to the rotation. It’s nice to be the Dodgers. As for the Ohtani runner-ups … — Schoenfield
Blue Jays’ next move: Aside from being extremely sad? Toronto went into this winter wanting to land a big fish, and Ohtani and Juan Soto were the two prized tunas in the ocean. If they want a bat, they could pivot to Cody Bellinger to fill the center-field gap left behind by Kevin Kiermaier‘s departure. If they want an arm, they can go head-to-head with the most moneyed teams in baseball and take a crack at Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Either way, the disappointment of going after the biggest stars available and missing would be palpable for a team that deeply desired a win to erase the disillusionment of another early postseason exit. — Passan
Cubs’ next move: Bring back Bellinger. The Cubs are looking for a big bat to add to the lineup and with Ohtani out of the mix, Bellinger is the next-best position player. He and Ohtani obviously aren’t one-for-one replacements at the plate, much less in overall quality, position or pitching ability, but the Cubs’ lineup has enough versatile pieces to make room for a top-notch player at a number of positions. The other main suitor for Bellinger was perceived to be the Yankees, who solved their outfield issues by trading for Soto (and Trent Grisham) Wednesday night. — McDaniel
Red Sox’s next move: Boston’s primary focus is the rotation — which Ohtani would have helped out starting in 2025 — but this is also an organization that has long valued production from the DH slot, from David Ortiz to J.D. Martinez to Justin Turner. Martinez and Turner are free agents, but let’s give the Red Sox Jorge Soler. With all their left-handed hitters, they need a righty masher, and Soler slugged .688 last season against southpaws and at 31 is younger than Martinez or Turner. They should keep their prospects in an improving farm system, so let’s have them dig into free agency to add rotation depth rather than a trade: Shota Imanaga (Kiley McDaniel’s No. 11 ranked free agent) and Seth Lugo, who pitched well as a starter with the San Diego Padres. That gives them eight solid rotation options: Rodriguez, Lugo, Bryan Bello, Chris Sale, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta and Garrett Whitlock. — Schoenfield
Angels’ next move: Trade Mike Trout. Start over. Build around Zach Neto, Nolan Schanuel and Logan O’Hoppe. Throw Jo Adell out there and let him sink or swim. Yes, I know what the words “Mike Trout is not getting traded, one hundred percent” mean. I would trade him anyway, to the Philadelphia Phillies most likely, since that might be the only place to which you could convince him to waive his no-trade clause. But if Ohtani goes, this era of Angels baseball needs to transition to the next, and it needs to be done carefully and with patience. — Doolittle
Mets’ next move: The Mets are a lot more likely to sign Yamamoto than they are to sign Ohtani, so for them this isn’t so much of a pivot as it is, seemingly, their No. 1 priority. They need starting pitching, and Yamamoto would make for a nice top-of-the-rotation pairing with Japanese countryman Kodai Senga. At 25, Yamamoto fits perfectly with their pursuit of long-term sustainability and their plan to seemingly be at their best in 2025 and 2026 as opposed to 2024. Mets owner Steve Cohen, who reportedly flew to Japan to meet with Yamamoto recently, has the money to outbid everybody for his services. And it’s a crowded field. — Gonzalez
If Ohtani signs with the … Blue Jays
At the start of the offseason, the Blue Jays were hardly the favorite to sign Ohtani. One betting site had them tied for the 12th lowest odds at the onset of the offseason (tied at 25-1 with the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals). But maybe it shouldn’t be a big surprise if they land him.
The Jays have a deep-pocketed owner in Rogers Communications, which could use Ohtani to headline its Blue Jays broadcasts across Canada. Plus, they need help on the field. While they’re one of just five teams to win at least 88 games each of the past three seasons, they’re a big, fat 0-4 in playoff games, scoring one run in their two losses to the Minnesota Twins. Meanwhile, the offense plummeted from top three in the AL in runs in 2020, ’21 and ’22 to eighth in 2023 and clearly lacked a left-handed hitter to go with Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer. With a veteran rotation, it’s also imperative for the Jays to go all-in right now while the rotation still projects as one of the best in the majors. — Schoenfield
Dodgers’ next move: The Dodgers are almost as interested in Yamamoto as they are in Ohtani, and one can make a strong case that Yamamoto — who will actually pitch next season — makes them better in 2024. This is clearly where they’ll pivot if they can’t get Ohtani. They’d love to sign them both, but getting just one would be looked upon as a massive success. The Dodgers want to add two to three starting pitchers this offseason, and Yamamoto is at the forefront of their plans. He’s going to command a contract in excess of $200 million, but he’s also just 25 years old. And they’ve had their eyes on him for a while. — Gonzalez
Cubs’ next move: I had the Cubs bringing back Bellinger in the first scenario, but you could argue that Matt Chapman fits them better as the big offensive addition to their lineup. With Christopher Morel being more of a corner utility type who can play a number of positions capably, adding a strong glove at third in Chapman makes team building a bit easier. There’s a potential desire for another veteran in center field before prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong — who was called up for the last month of the season — takes the job, to then have the vet move into a platoon/reserve role. At the higher end of the market, KBO outfielder Jung-hoo Lee could be a fit, with Michael A. Taylor or Adam Duvall as lower-end everyday options and Kiermaier and Harrison Bader in the higher upside bucket despite some durability issues. — McDaniel
Red Sox’s next move: I gave the Red Sox Soler and two starting pitchers last time. This time, I’m giving them Yamamoto. Check that list of starters above. OK, I’ll repeat it: Bello, Sale, Pivetta, Houck, Crawford, Whitlock. I don’t see an ace in there, that’s for sure. Yamamoto gives them the No. 1 starter they haven’t really had since Sale first injured his shoulder during the World Series season of 2018. –– Schoenfield
Angels’ next move: Well, since the Angels are adamant that they won’t trade Trout, then trade everyone else. The veterans that is. Fold in some future value and eat some cash to move Anthony Rendon. Find a taker for your good over-30 hitters like Brandon Drury and Taylor Ward. With or without Trout, the direction is the same: full reset. The Detroit Tigers did it with Miguel Cabrera still around and so the Angels can do it with Trout. — Doolittle
Mets’ next move: Yamamoto or bust. The Mets’ dalliance with Ohtani was short-lived, and as much as they would’ve loved rostering him, their most acute need in 2024 and beyond is in a rotation decimated by trades and ineffectiveness. Getting Yamamoto won’t be easy. The New York Yankees want him. The Dodgers, especially if they don’t get Ohtani, will want him. Getting into a bidding war with the two marquee franchises in baseball isn’t anybody’s idea of a good time. For free agents, Ohtani going to Toronto is the best-case scenario, because it shortens the supply of top-end players in a market where all the high-dollar teams are primed to spend. — Passan
If Ohtani signs with the … Angels
Maybe Ohtani is comfortable in Anaheim. Maybe Ohtani looks at Neto and Schanuel and sees a brighter future. Maybe he appreciates the organization that let him do it his way in turning into a two-way superstar. Maybe he just doesn’t want to leave a stadium he loves to hit in (he’s hit 99 home runs at Angel Stadium in his career and 72 on the road). Maybe after all this, he simply ends up back with the Angels. — Schoenfield
Dodgers’ next move: The Dodgers don’t seem to have a ton of interest in Blake Snell, and if Yamamoto is off the board, their best chance at a high-impact starting pitcher could be through a trade. Enter Dylan Cease, who possesses electric stuff and comes with two years of control (as opposed to Tyler Glasnow and Corbin Burnes, who have only one). The Dodgers are the type of team that can help Cease recapture his dominance from 2022. And they have the trade assets to beat out the competition for his services. — Gonzalez
Blue Jays’ next move: The market for Korean star Jung-hoo Lee is sprawling, and teams believe he could fetch a deal in excess of the five years and $90 million Boston gave Masataka Yoshida last year. The fit with Toronto makes sense. Lee is a no-doubt center fielder. He gets on base and could join Bichette and Guerrero atop the Blue Jays’ lineup. He doesn’t strike out much, though those numbers are likely to climb in his KBO-to-MLB transition. Lee wouldn’t necessarily be the kind of signing the Blue Jays envisioned coming into a winter in which the most talented player ever was a legitimate and realistic target, but bringing him onboard unquestionably would make Toronto a better team than it is right now. — Passan
Cubs’ next move: The Cubs’ rotation is solid and has some help coming in Cade Horton, but I could see a standout lefty in the bullpen putting them over the top, making the pen a strength of the team. Luckily for them, the top reliever on the market, Josh Hader, is a lefty and one of the best closers in baseball. Being able to shift Adbert Alzolay and Julian Merryweather into the eighth- and seventh-inning roles with Drew Smyly as a multirole left-handed option puts them in a better late-game strategic position for a potential playoff run. — McDaniel
Red Sox’s next move: The Red Sox could use help at second base and the outfield (especially if they use Masataka Yoshida at DH). Whit Merrifield can help at both positions, and while he doesn’t move the needle in a big way, he’s a useful utility player. And that still leaves plenty of room in the payroll to sign a starter. Jordan Montgomery might not be a No. 1, but one thing he has done since returning from Tommy John surgery is post: 30 starts in 2021, 32 in 2022 and 32 in 2023. The Red Sox had one starter make 30 starts over the past two seasons (Pivetta in 2022). When they last made the playoffs in 2021, they had three. Every team needs a couple of horses in the rotation and Montgomery fits. — Schoenfield
Mets’ next move: Sign Hader. I know the Mets are in on Yamamoto and they shouldn’t break off that pursuit. But new president of baseball operations David Stearns knows Hader well from their Milwaukee association and a two-headed back of the bullpen with Hader and Edwin Diaz would be epic. And it would make New York a bear to overcome in a playoff context. The Mets need to be targeted with their free agency splashes. Winning the Ohtani pursuit would have fit that objective, as would a successful wooing of Yamamoto, and Hader is another one of the few real impact free agents in this market. Those are the players the Mets should be all in on pursuing. — Doolittle
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Pete Thamel, ESPN
NEW ORLEANS — Considering that half-century in the college football netherworld, Tulane is amid what can only be considered a football renaissance. Spearheaded by former coach Willie Fritz and perpetuated by first-year coach Jon Sumrall, Tulane has won the American Athletic Conference (2022), beaten USC in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and is ranked No. 25 in the College Football Playoff rankings.
Few could have projected Tulane’s place in the national conversation before the recent surge, as Tulane (8-2) looms as an improbable contender — along with No. 13 Boise State and No. 24 Army — for the CFP bid that goes to the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion.
“They were a beached whale for a lot of years and decades,” former Tulane athletic director Kevin White told ESPN. “The schizophrenia from the campus community was real, relative to college athletics. You’d put on a helmet and shoulder pads when you went to the board meetings.”
These days, the helmets and shoulder pads are saved for the games.
And Tulane has a coach in Sumrall, 42, who is considered to be one the most promising in the sport and embodies the institution’s grander ambitions that come with the taste of success.
And that puts Tulane in a compelling place as a university, as it’s seeing the benefits of recent football relevance and pondering the investments required to stay in the mix and, someday, position itself for a power conference.
“To be able to sustain success is really rewarding, I think, for everybody involved,” Sumrall said in his office last week. “Our players, our staff and the university as a whole, the challenges that come with mid-major football Group of 5 football if you will. Anytime right now you feel like a coach leaves, you’re like, ‘All right, this could go really bad.’ But we’re very fortunate to, things have stabilized.”
Tulane is undefeated in the AAC and a win at Navy (7-2) on Saturday (noon ET on ESPN2) would clinch a spot in the program’s third consecutive conference title game. Tulane beat UCF two years ago, lost to SMU last season and would play Army with a win Saturday.
That type of consistent success — as often happens at the mid-major level — has led to turnover. Athletic director Troy Dannen left for Washington (then soon again for Nebraska) after hiring Fritz in December 2015 and building the program with him. Fritz left for Houston after going 23-4 his final two seasons and beating USC in the Cotton Bowl following the 2022 season.
And Tulane has found itself institutionally trying to both sustain and maximize the success. It hired Huron Consulting, of which White is a senior adviser, to do what COO Patrick Norton calls a “basic diagnosis” of the athletic department.
“[Athletics is] really important to our brand,” Norton said. “Now, how do we capitalize on that? That’s still, I think, in some ways to be determined. I mean, this is fairly recent for us, success from the Cotton Bowl, which was really an amazing experience for the university. One that we hadn’t gone through in a very, very long time.”
One of the clearest signs of Tulane’s football aspirations came immediately after last season. In the wake of Fritz’s departure to Houston and in essentially athletic director David Harris’ first week on the job, they lured the hottest coach in the Sun Belt. Sumrall had won back-to-back league titles at Troy while going 23-4, and drew interest in the last cycle from Texas A&M and Mississippi State.
Sumrall agreed to a six-year deal that’s believed to be near the top of the AAC. For a place that lagged behind so far and for so long, Harris’ immediate aggression and commitment showed that Tulane didn’t want to drift off the map for another half-century.
“Jon has had a great impact on us,” Harris told ESPN. “I think his name and his success coming in the door gave what we were continuing to try to build here at Tulane, immediate credibility because people knew his background, his success, what he had been able to do at Troy, the connection that he had had here [as a former assistant].”
To remain in the conversation for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, Tulane will need to keep winning and get help from some of Boise State’s Mountain West foes. But it’s entirely viable, and a testament to the school’s ability to maintain through significant turnover.
Tulane’s place in the national conversation is a fitting dividend from it’s increased investment in football. It was an object of the desire of the Pac-12 and continued success could vault it into conversations as leagues remain in flux.
Norton said that the travel in the Pac-12 loomed as an issue for Tulane and the school didn’t see a certain financial benefit from a move.
“We were leaving something that is more certain to less certain,” Norton said, “and frankly, it’s not the Pac-12 that we always knew, that we grew up with that John Wooden and UCLA and USC. It just wasn’t the same. I’m not saying that these schools aren’t solid, very good schools, but it’s not the same. And it was different than what we wanted, and so I think the decision wasn’t that hard, but we listened.”
But being courted by a league is a sign of Tulane’s evolution and success in athletics. And Sumrall said he has felt the support.
“I think that the readiness and the commitment is real,” Sumrall said. “I think that the university is seeing what football can do for the university. It’s galvanized so many people and I think it’s created a lot of exposure, and I think that that only empowers the desire to maybe help it grow even further.”
Sumrall spent three as an assistant coach at Tulane from 2012-14. He loved the city, watched guys like Leonard Fournette and Odell Beckham Jr. play high school ball. He loved the culture of the city — his favorite steakhouse is Mr. John’s down on St. Charles Avenue, and he has dabbled with the alligator cheesecake at Jacques-Imo’s. He always thought the collision of local talent and the city’s uniqueness could yield big dividends for a program stuck in neutral so long.
“So to me, that mixture of things was something that stood out to me when I was here previously,” Sumrall said. “And then the moment that’s been created with the most recent success the last few years really showed, I think, that there was an opportunity to maybe capture some positive things that have happened.”
Sumrall’s final season as an assistant coach coincided with the move to Yulman Stadium on campus and to the AAC in 2014. That marked a move out of the SuperDome, a cavernous dark hole for Tulane games that Sumrall likened to “playing in a cave.”
Since he has returned, Sumrall has seen the team being on campus and the success under Fritz energize Tulane football in New Orleans. He complimented Dannen’s decision to bring back the Angry Wave logo — fitting for a quirky city like New Orleans — and said the excitement felt today can be linked to the campus hosting football games.
“Ten years ago when I was here, I don’t think anybody here gave a damn. The city didn’t care,” he said. “There was no connection. Now you feel like a real connection. So that part’s really cool.”
Sumrall values that connection. He and his wife, Ginny, live nearby and take frequent walks on campus. She joins him when he traverses campus on Thursdays and checks in on the players classes, something Sumrall likes to do as a way to connect with the players. His presence there also stresses the academic component, which is critical at Tulane.
The roster that Sumrall as assembled is a modern mosaic of what roster building looks like, as he brought in 58 new players, including 53 transfers. He also has benefited from holdovers at quarterback and tailback who’ve both emerged as stars.
Tailback Makhi Hughes leads the AAC in rushing yards with 1,209. He averages 5.7 yards per carry and has scored 13 rushing touchdowns and two more receiving.
Quarterback Darian Mensah has thrown for 2,059 yards, 16 touchdowns and four interceptions. He has completed 65.6% of his passes and has emerged as one of the top quarterbacks in the Group of 5.
Mensah has led a balanced offense under veteran coordinator Joe Craddock that is No. 4 nationally in scoring with 41.0 points per game. Tulane is also Top 20 in scoring defense and total defense under coordinator Greg Gasparato.
Sumrall’s teams at Troy had a knack for winning close games, as Sumrall joked they went a “modest 12-2” his first year there. So far at Tulane, his team has lost only to then-No. 15 Oklahoma and then-No. 17 Kansas State, and it has handled the rest of the competition. In Tulane’s eight wins, it has won by an average of more than 30 points.
As Tulane enters the finishing kick, the program will face the same micro conundrum that it faces in the macro as a university in athletics — retaining talent and spending enough money in order to remain competitive. That includes coaches, staff and players, in an era where the financial separation is distinct compared to the power leagues.
While there’s limited movement expected in Power 4 coaching this year, Sumrall’s 31-6 career record will make him coveted this year and beyond. Mensah, who has three years of eligibility left, has authored the type of season that already has quarterback-needy schools putting together bids.
The success for Tulane is real, but so is the annual challenge to maintain it. With the ambition and momentum Tulane has gathered comes the challenge of keeping it going.
“As you look at the next several years, and the changing landscape of college athletics, people feel that there’s really a place for Tulane within the college football landscape and just overall being a stronger athletics brand,” Harris said. “And so to be in this position is incredibly exciting. It’s a big responsibility because you want to be a part of keeping the trajectory going up and keeping the excitement going and keeping the momentum going.”
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Neil Paine
Hockey is a notoriously chaotic sport in which you need a large sample of games to know what’s real versus what’s just noise. For instance, it is estimated that it takes the entire 82-game NHL season to give us as much information about team quality as just 32 NBA games — or less than half the regular season — do.
So it’s always risky to draw grand conclusions from what we see over the first month of play on the ice. But that can’t stop us from finding interesting trends emerging from the early portion of the schedule.
Here are seven initial developments that have taken us by surprise in 2024-25 so far:
1. Ovechkin’s comeback against Father Time
One of the biggest storylines heading into the season was Alex Ovechkin‘s pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s goal-scoring record, with the Great 8 starting the season trailing The Great One by 41 scores.
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Sean Allen
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Victoria Matiash
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Victoria Matiash
Fantasy Hockey
- ESPN.com Fantasy Contributor since 2010
- Part-time anchor at NEWSTALK1010
Another week, another No. 1 landing spot for the Winnipeg Jets in the ESPN NHL Power Rankings. But who finishes 2-32?
Plus, it’s another fantasy hockey takeover week, with Sean Allen and Victoria Matiash identifying one player per team who is off to a slow start (relative to his teammates or expectations) and advising fantasy managers whether to have patience or panic at this time.
And as a reminder, it’s not too late to join ESPN Fantasy Hockey. Sign up for free and start playing today!
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday, which generates our master list here.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Nov. 8. Points percentages are through Thursday’s games.
Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 88.24%
Cole Perfetti, LW (28.9% rostered in ESPN Fantasy leagues): As difficult as it is to find fault with anything Jets-related these days, Perfetti isn’t quite meeting 2024-25 fantasy expectations yet. But the 22-year-old remains cemented on the Jets’ second scoring line and power play, and he has pitched in enough multipoint showings to merit another look in deeper leagues. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ FLA (Nov. 16), vs. FLA (Nov. 19)
Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 73.33%
Brent Burns, D (69.5%): The writing had been on the wall, faintly sketched with a carpenter’s pencil, but now it’s been retraced in ink. Shayne Gostisbehere has the power play on lock, and Burns doesn’t put up the points without it now. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. OTT (Nov. 16), vs. STL (Nov. 17), @ PHI (Nov. 20), @ NJ (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 67.65%
Gustav Forsling, D (68.8%): Playoff heroics can inflate rostership numbers even this far into the future, but Forsling isn’t a must-have fantasy contributor. You can find a defenseman with a higher ceiling among your league’s free agents. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. WPG (Nov. 16), @ WPG (Nov. 19), @ CHI (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 78.13%
Marc-Andre Fleury, G (51.8%): As long as Filip Gustavsson continues to perform dependably well, the veteran No. 2 isn’t going to play much. There are other lesser-rostered backups in the league — Jake Allen and Jonathan Quick come to mind — who offer more fantasy punch than Fleury. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. DAL (Nov. 16), @ STL (Nov. 19), @ EDM (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 70.00%
Matt Roy, D (45.6%): After a breakout fantasy campaign with the Kings last season, cut Roy some slack. He has had only a handful of games to get used to his new teammates, and the minutes are there to get the job done. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ COL (Nov. 15), @ VGK (Nov. 17), @ UTA (Nov. 18), vs. COL (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 70.00%
Mika Zibanejad, C (95.6%): Zibanejad has had slow starts before — 1.78 FPPG in 2021-22 and 1.93 FPPG last season — yet still finished over 2.00 FPPG. His current 1.58 FPPG isn’t alarming. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ SEA (Nov. 17), @ VAN (Nov. 19), @ CGY (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 68.75%
Brayden McNabb, D (52.3%): Returning to his selfless ways — highlighted by five blocked shots against the Ducks Wednesday — McNabb is already working back into his fantasy managers’ good graces. While hardly a prolific producer, the veteran should start pitching in a few more points, too. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ UTA (Nov. 15), vs. WSH (Nov. 17), @ TOR (Nov. 20), @ OTT (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 65.00%
Luke Hughes, D (39.1%): He did an admirable job filling in for an injured Dougie Hamilton as a rookie last season, but unless that situation arises again, it looks as though Hughes is out of the limelight for this campaign. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ TB (Nov. 16), vs. CAR (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 66.67%
Roope Hintz, C (79.8%): Some bad puck luck, illustrated by his 6.7% shooting percentage through six recent contests (career: 16.5%), is partially to blame for Hintz’s current skid. But the perennial 30-plus goal scorer is bound to get back on track soon, especially once Peter DeBoer inevitably juggles his lines again. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ MIN (Nov. 16), vs. ANA (Nov. 18), vs. SJ (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 63.33%
Filip Hronek, D (51.9%): He’s averaging approximately a single shot and blocked shot per game. Unlike last season, the compensatory scoring isn’t there to make up for those shortcomings. Hronek appears far more valuable to the Canucks as Quinn Hughes‘ defensive partner than to his fantasy managers. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. CHI (Nov. 16), vs. NSH (Nov. 17), vs. NYR (Nov. 19)
Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 58.33%
Quinton Byfield, RW (43.2%): The lack of a single power-play point is one concern, along with his removal from the top unit. Through the fantasy lens, so is Byfield’s third-line role. If all remains as is, we might be in for another season of inconsistent fantasy returns. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. DET (Nov. 16), vs. BUF (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 61.11%
Matthew Knies, LW (42.4%): He has been making hay while the sun shines, so to speak, as he gets first power-play unit access while Auston Matthews is out. The confidence boost should carry over to when Matthews returns, and they are linemates again. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. EDM (Nov. 16), vs. VGK (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 55.88%
Jeff Skinner, C (45.0%): Afforded the opportunity to compete alongside just about every Oiler up front, including two of the best centers in the biz, the veteran winger has nonetheless failed to offer much of a productive presence. Now Skinner appears relegated to Edmonton’s fourth line. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ TOR (Nov. 16), @ MTL (Nov. 18), @ OTT (Nov. 19), vs. MIN (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 56.67%
Jake Guentzel, LW (98.8%): Guentzel’s overall output is fantastic already, but with just two power-play points so far, he has yet to add his usual production with the man advantage. If he does, his already strong fantasy profile could get a big boost. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. NJ (Nov. 16), @ PIT (Nov. 19), @ CBJ (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 52.94%
Devon Toews, D (66.7%): While it has taken the defender time to warm up after a delayed start to 2024-25, Toews now appears back in his groove: blocking shots, contributing to the score sheet and skating more minutes than nearly everyone else. Cale Makar‘s partner hasn’t averaged 0.58 points per game throughout his career by accident. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. WSH (Nov. 15), @ PHI (Nov. 18), @ WSH (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 53.13%
Linus Ullmark, G (84.8%): The Senators are showing signs of competing, and we know Ullmark is capable of being among the best. Patience might already be paying off with some of his recent road outings against tough division rivals. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ CAR (Nov. 16), vs. EDM (Nov. 19), vs. VGK (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 55.88%
Nazem Kadri, C (78.4%): While no one is scoring much for the Flames these days, including their No. 1 center, this too shall pass. Perhaps it’ll play out like last season, when Kadri collected two points in October before erupting for 13 in November, then maintained that scoring pace for the duration of the season. Also, he shoots the puck a lot. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. NSH (Nov. 15), vs. NYI (Nov. 19), vs. NYR (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 50.00%
Charlie McAvoy, D (89.9%): The Bruins’ offense might be slower this season, but McAvoy’s 1.64 FPPG is still too low. Give him time. Not enough has changed to drop him far from his 2.29 FPPG average over the past three seasons. Verdict: Patience
Next seven days: vs. STL (Nov. 16), vs. CBJ (Nov. 18), vs. UTA (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 53.13%
Barrett Hayton, C (17.5%): According to analysis by Evolving Hockey, the third-line center (for now) should be scoring more goals in accordance with the quality of his shots. That offers some comfort in light of his current skid. While Hayton certainly needs to play more minutes and shoot on net more often, he doesn’t merit giving up entirely in deeper fantasy leagues. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. VGK (Nov. 15), vs. WSH (Nov. 18), @ BOS (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 52.94%
Brock Nelson, C (76.9%): The Isles’ collective offense isn’t weaker than it has been for several years. Nelson has averaged 2.03 FPPG across the past three seasons. He’ll come around. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ SEA (Nov. 16), @ CGY (Nov. 19), @ DET (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 50.00%
Patrick Kane, RW (66.3%): If the Red Wings’ power play were in the dumps, maybe we could preach patience for Kane. But it’s not, and it might be time to move on from Kane in fantasy. He is getting all the opportunities required and is just not producing. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ ANA (Nov. 15), @ LA (Nov. 16), @ SJ (Nov. 18), vs. NYI (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 50.00%
Dylan Cozens, C (49.3%): It is time to move off Cozens. He had that banner 2022-23 but is now matching the reduced fantasy production that lasted all of last season. Even an uptick in performance might not be enough to get to fantasy relevance from his current 1.41 FPPG. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ PHI (Nov. 16), @ LA (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 50.00%
Adam Larsson, D (60.5%): Despite the relative drought, the top-pair defenseman still blocks a sufficient number of shots to merit rostering in deeper standard leagues. Plus, he’ll soon fall back into his usual (however relatively modest) scoring groove. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. NYI (Nov. 16), vs. NYR (Nov. 17), vs. NSH (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 44.12%
Jordan Binnington, G (55.1%): After winning the season opener against Seattle, the Blues’ No. 1 has yet to beat anyone outside of the Atlantic Division. Shouldering a 4-7-0 record, .887 save percentage and 3.26 goals-against average, Binnington has cost his fantasy managers a total net loss of 1.8 points. Yes, negative points. There are likely brighter days ahead for the banged-up Blues, but when? Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ BOS (Nov. 16), @ CAR (Nov. 17), vs. MIN (Nov. 19), vs. SJ (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 47.06%
Joel Farabee, LW (50.7%): Farabee, Tyson Foerster, Scott Laughton; Take your pick of Flyers who were just picking up some fantasy momentum in their career but have been buried on the depth chart by the new core group. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. BUF (Nov. 16), vs. COL (Nov. 18), vs. CAR (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 38.24%
Teuvo Teravainen, RW (41.4%): The Blackhawks’ offseason acquisition has one goal and zero assists in his past 11 games, and he isn’t shooting with any consistency. Even back on a scoring line with Connor Bedard, Teravainen can’t be counted on to contribute regularly enough. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ VAN (Nov. 16), vs. ANA (Nov. 19), vs. FLA (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 41.67%
Erik Karlsson, D (94.1%): It’s been a season and a quarter now, so what we see from Karlsson as a Penguin might be what we get. He’s not the sole source of offense, so downgraded fantasy output is just the new normal. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ CBJ (Nov. 15), vs. SJ (Nov. 16), vs. TB (Nov. 19)
Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 40.00%
Ivan Provorov, D (19.2%): No one on the Blue Jackets is underperforming in a big way, but even 20% rostership is too high for Provorov. If he’s not on the first pair, you can safely pretend he’s not there. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. PIT (Nov. 15), @ MTL (Nov. 16), @ BOS (Nov. 18), vs. TB (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 38.24%
Gustav Nyquist, RW (16.6%): Once replaced by Steven Stamkos on the Predators’ top line, Nyquist lost most of his fantasy charm. It’s no coincidence the winger was at his most productive when skating alongside Filip Forsberg and Ryan O’Reilly. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ CGY (Nov. 15), @ VAN (Nov. 17), @ SEA (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 40.00%
Lukas Dostal, G (60.7%): The Ducks allow the most shots against (35.5 per game) while scoring the fewest goals (2.20 per game). Plus, a healthy John Gibson is back to share Anaheim’s crease. Dostal’s successful fantasy run was fun while it lasted. It’s time to move on. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. DET (Nov. 15), @ DAL (Nov. 18), @ CHI (Nov. 19)
Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 36.11%
William Eklund, LW (56.2%): The sophomore is playing a ton of minutes, pitching in assists and now skating on a scoring line with Mikael Granlund. Which is a good thing. Yes, we’d all like to see him shoot more. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ PIT (Nov. 16), vs. DET (Nov. 18), @ DAL (Nov. 20), @ STL (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 35.29%
Sam Montembeault, G (22.3%): The Habs don’t look like they’ll win enough for Monty to shine in redraft leagues, but if you drafted him for a keeper league, there are positive signs for the future. Verdict: Patience, at least for the long term.
Next seven days: vs. CBJ (Nov. 16), vs. EDM (Nov. 18)
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