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Britain’s critical infrastructure will be more at risk from extreme weather if the world wavers on its commitment to net zero targets, according to exclusive analysis for Sky News.

Power stations, transport networks and airports are all more likely to be damaged or disrupted as global average temperatures climb higher, data from risk assessors Climate X shows.

The UK government recently watered down green commitments to save money on household bills.

But analysis suggests that, if other countries do the same, there will be higher long-term costs from shoring up or repairing infrastructure to keep the lights on and supermarket shelves stocked.

Navjit Sagoo, science engagement officer at Climate X, said: “Net zero is not as expensive as doing nothing. Doing nothing is always more expensive.”

Climate X advises insurance companies and businesses on climate risks and resilience.

It looked at about 22,000 buildings and other infrastructure assets for Sky News using a “digital twin” of the UK to model how they fared at two different climates in the year 2100.

More on Net Zero

In the first, the global average temperature rose by 1.6C from pre-industrial levels and would only be achieved through rapid cuts to greenhouse gases.

In the second, the global temperature rose by 4.3C, consistent with much weaker climate action.

The results show that power stations, rail and Tube stations, motorway junctions and airports were all more at risk from at least one climate hazard at the higher temperature.

“Our infrastructure wasn’t built to withstand these kind of climate extremes,” said Dr Sagoo.

“We will have hotter weather, so things will be stressed more from the heat, and we’ll have wetter weather as well.”

Of the 4,000 energy facilities analysed, 100% were at risk from storm damage at 4.3C, compared with just 60% at 1.6C.

Climate X took a closer look at Pembroke and Staythorpe power stations, which provide electricity to nearly seven million homes.

With rapid cuts in carbon emissions, the Pembroke site is likely to flood every 60 years and Staythorpe every 40 by the end of the century.

But with weaker climate action, then Pembroke could flood every 42 years, and Staythorpe every 17.

Climate X also assessed the risk to more than 14,000 rail and Tube stations.

In the cooler of the two scenarios studied, 61% would be at risk from storms and 18% from subsidence by the end of the century.

But in a far hotter future, that increases to 100% and 28%.

Road transport could also become more difficult in the hotter of the two possible future climates, with 18% of motorway junctions at risk of river flooding.

Keeping the rise in temperature to just 1.6C would put 11% at risk of flooding.

“It definitely becomes more real when you think about climate change in terms of infrastructure rather than just warming,” said Dr Sagoo.

“The train station you rely on to go to work, that’s going to be flooded. Or the airport you use to go on holiday will be impacted.

“The more severe the warming is, the more frequently those events are going to happen.”

Read more
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The UK is already seeing more extreme weather as global temperatures rise, so far up 1.1C since pre-industrial levels.

Hastings on the East Sussex coast has flooded twice this year after torrential rain.

Hastings Furniture Service, a charity that provides affordable furniture to low-income families, lost £20,000 of stock after being flooded to a depth of 3ft.

Kate Davidson, who leads the charity, said volunteers had been “heartbroken” by the damage. She’s now thinking about how to make the service more resilient.

“Maybe we have to have a bit of a ramp up to the next building, just to lift it a little bit, which sounds bizarre in Hastings or in England.

“I think we need to be a little bit higher.”

The government’s climate advisers, the Climate Change Committee, has also warned that the UK is unprepared for the impact of more extreme weather.

It highlighted the risks to the economy from power system failures and the supply of food and vital services if distribution networks are blocked.

The government’s Department for Energy Security and Net Zero told Sky News that it has a plan to increase the country’s resilience to climate risks, with “billions” being spent on adaptation measures such as flood schemes.

Power companies have also been told to risk assess their assets to gauge their resilience.

In a statement, a government spokesperson said: “We are on track to deliver our net-zero commitments, and are taking a fairer and more pragmatic approach to meeting them, easing the burden on hard-working families.

“Our third National Adaptation Programme sets out a robust five-year plan to strengthen infrastructure, and promote a greener economy in the face of the climate challenges we face.”

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UK boosts pandemic readiness with new vaccine factory

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UK boosts pandemic readiness with new vaccine factory

A US vaccine firm has opened the first mRNA manufacturing plant in the UK, against a backdrop of increasing anti-jab rhetoric back home.

The new facility outside Oxford is part of a £1bn investment in the UK by Moderna, which specialises in mRNA.

The novel vaccine technology delivered some of the most effective and fastest-to-develop jabs during the COVID pandemic.

Several pharma companies, including Germany’s leading mRNA pioneer BioNTech, are now racing to develop new therapies.

Moderna says the plant will produce up to 100 million doses of its existing vaccine products each year. It has also been designed to scale-up production to 250 million doses a year in the event of a new disease outbreak.

“God-forbid, if there is another pandemic, we can switch the facility any day,” said Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel.

The UK investment deal was agreed by the previous government, but the plant’s opening is welcome relief for the current one.

In recent weeks, four major pharmaceutical companies have halted planned investments in the UK following disputes over drug pricing and profitability in the UK.

‘A great statement’

It also promises to restore domestic vaccine manufacturing capability in the UK, the lack of which was exposed when dangerous supply interruptions threatened the early COVID response.

“It’s a really fast way of getting new vaccines discovered,” said Lord Patrick Vallance, former chief scientist and now science minister.

“It’s also a great statement of confidence in the UK that [Moderna has] chosen to base themselves here.”

Health Secretary Wes Streeting attended the opening
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Health Secretary Wes Streeting attended the opening

Moderna: UK ‘still believes’ in vaccines

The mRNA molecule is the same used by our cells to order the production of new proteins, and allows vaccines to be produced using just the genetic code of a virus or other biological target.

Moderna’s investment decision pre-dated Donald Trump’s return to the White House, but the Moderna CEO said its operation in the UK – a country that “still believes in vaccination” – may pay dividends if anti-vaccine rhetoric translates into a lack of demand for its products in the US.

“If there is less appetite by governments around the world, including in the US, to use vaccines, we might invest less in vaccines,” said Mr Bancel.

“We have to invest where there’s a demand for our products.”

Read more: All health claims made by Trump – and what experts say

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Is US politics fuelling a deadly measles outbreak?

The UK presents other attractions for the company which has suffered substantial losses as demand for its COVID vaccine has fallen.

It’s betting that leading UK universities and a large patient population will make for successful clinical trials.

The company has ongoing NHS trials of new jabs against seasonal flu, a combination COVID and flu vaccine, cancer vaccines and mRNA therapies for two inherited childhood diseases.

Moderna says it is now the largest private commercial sponsor of clinical trials in the UK.

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Wayne Rooney says he’d be dead if it wasn’t for wife Coleen

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Wayne Rooney says he'd be dead if it wasn't for wife Coleen

Footballer Wayne Rooney has said he believes he would be dead if it wasn’t for his wife Coleen’s help with his alcohol issues.

The former England and Manchester United star told his friend and former teammate Rio Ferdinand he would “drink for two days straight” at the peak of his career.

Recalling that period on the Rio Ferdinand Presents podcast, he said he would “come training and at the weekend I’d score two goals and then I’d go back and go and drink for two days straight again”.

But the 39-year-old said his wife “helped me control that massively” and “managed me because I needed managing”.

“I honestly believe, if she weren’t there, I’d be dead,” he said.

Speaking to Ferdinand, he recalled meeting Coleen when they were at secondary school together in Liverpool and getting married in 2008 after six years of dating.

The couple in Germany during the 2006 World Cup. Pic: PA
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The couple in Germany during the 2006 World Cup. Pic: PA

“When I was 17, she could see, she knew my mind and she knew I was a bit out there,” he said.

“I loved my football, obsessed with football, but also I loved a night out or whatever, going out. She’s seen it very early on and she’s controlled that. Well, not controlled, but helped me control that massively.”

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The couple in Liverpool in 2006. Pic: PA
Image:
The couple in Liverpool in 2006. Pic: PA

Gum and eye drops to hide drinking at work

When he was playing for Manchester United, he would try to hide his drinking sessions from manager Sir Alex Ferguson by chewing gum and using eye drops, he added.

The couple have four children together. Their marriage has been impacted by several allegations of Rooney being unfaithful, for which he has issued public apologies.

The former striker, who is still Manchester United’s all-time record goal scorer, was arrested for drink-driving in 2017.

After he was caught over the limit in Wilmslow, Cheshire, he pleaded guilty to drink-driving and was banned for two years, made to do 100 hours of unpaid work, and was fined two weeks’ wages by his then-team Everton.

He was arrested for “public intoxication” in the US a year later and fined $116 (£86) without going to court.

Having left his role as head coach at Plymouth Argyle, Rooney now has his own BBC podcast and works as a pundit on Match Of The Day.

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Big Issue founder on the ‘great distraction’ stopping Britain tackling ’emergency’ crisis

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Big Issue founder on the 'great distraction' stopping Britain tackling 'emergency' crisis

“Chauvinistic” debates on immigration are distracting ministers from tackling the child poverty “emergency”, the founder of the Big Issue has told Sky News.

Lord John Bird, a crossbench peer, said there is “no evidence” the government is trying to “stop the growth or the propagation” of generational poverty, and the best thing they can do is admit they “haven’t got this right” and change course.

It comes amid a delay to Labour’s child poverty strategy, which is looking at whether to lift the controversial two-child benefit cap, among other measures.

While not affiliated to any political party, Lord Bird warned Labour will not hold back the rise of Reform UK unless they get a grip on the issue – calling debates on immigration a “great distraction”.

Lord John Bird is a lifelong poverty campaigner
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Lord John Bird is a lifelong poverty campaigner

“They’re largely there because of the problems in the country,” he said of Nigel Farage’s party.

“There’s a kind of rightward move in the country and a lot of that has to do with the way the immigration is going.

“It’s all about, in my opinion, chauvinism – and patriotism has become a new value. I am particularly concerned about that.”

Lord Bird is proposing an amendment to the Children’s Wellbeing and School’s Bill next month that would impose a statutory duty on the government to reduce child poverty in England.

Education minister Baroness Jacqui Smith has previously rejected the idea, saying targets “would not in themselves drive reductions in poverty”.

But according to analysis by the Big Issue, Scotland has seen a 12% drop in relative child poverty since passing legally binding targets in 2018, whereas England and Wales has seen a 15% rise.

Lord Bird’s amendment has the support of Labour peer Ruth Lister, the former director of the Child Poverty Action Group, who argues targets “galvanise” governments and local authorities into action.

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Parents struggle to feed children

Manifesto pledge at risk

Labour is under pressure as its manifesto promised an “ambitious strategy” to bring down child poverty, but the taskforce set up to deliver it after the general election missed its deadline in May.

The delay followed cost concerns around lifting the two-child benefit cap, which multiple charities and Labour MPs argue is the most immediate thing the government can do to help the record 4.5 million children living in poverty in the UK.

That figure is projected to rise to 4.8 million children by the end of this parliament without further action – putting the manifesto pledge in jeopardy.

The cap is likely to be a significant issued at Labour’s annual party conference kicking off this weekend, against the backdrop of a deputy leadership contest in which both contenders have pledged to make child poverty a priority.

Education Secretary Bridget Philipson, who is standing in the race and co-chairs the poverty taskforce, said this week that “everything is on the table, including removing the two-child limit”.

Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden, who co-chairs the taskforce, has not ruled out an announcement by the prime minister at the conference, but stressed: “Everything has to be paid for, everything has to be budgeted.”

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Lord Bird said removing the two-child cap, estimated to cost £3.4bn a year, would alleviate an “emergency”.

However, he said a longer-term strategy was needed to prevent poverty, warning it is more entrenched now than during his own “terrible” childhood.

The 79-year-old was born in a Notting Hill slum to a poor Irish family in 1946, becoming homeless at age five and learning to read and write through the prison system as a teen.

Back then “no one was giving you a handout” whereas there is “institutional poverty now”, Lord Bird said, blaming recent governments for “trying to make the poor slightly a bit more comfortable” rather than “turning off the tap”.

Lord John Bird escaped poverty and founded The Big Issue in 1991
Image:
Lord John Bird escaped poverty and founded The Big Issue in 1991

‘Aim for the impossible’

He urged Labour to challenge the radicalism of Nye Bevan, the founder of the NHS, and “aim for the impossible” in eradicating child poverty, with investments in education and social development.

“There’s no evidence that the government is trying to stop the growth or the propagation from one generation to another of poverty,” he said.

“The cheapest but most efficient thing this government could do is stop pretending they’ve got it right, stop pretending they got the answers. The most important thing they could do is say, whatever we’re doing, it’s not working.”

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