Moody’scuts China credit outlook, warns of lower growth, property crisis

Published

11 months ago

December 8, 2023

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Ratings agencyMoody’sslapped a downgrade warningon China’s credit rating on Tuesday,saying costs to bail out localgovernmentsand state firmsandcontrol itsproperty crisiswould weigh on the world’s No. 2 economy.

The downgrade reflects growing evidence that authorities will have to provide more financial support for debt-laden local governments and state firms, posing broad risks to China’s fiscal, economic and institutional strength,Moody’ssaid in a statement.

Historically, about one-third of issuers have been downgraded within 18 months of the assignment of a negative rating outlook.

“The outlook change also reflects the increased risks related to structurally and persistently lower medium-term economic growth and the ongoing downsizing of the property sector,” Moody’s said.

China’s blue-chip stocks slumped to nearly five-year lows on Tuesday amid worries about the country’s growth, with talk of a possible cut by Moody’s denting sentiment during the session, while Hong Kong stocks extended losses.

China’s major state-owned banks, which had been seen supporting the yuan currency all day, stepped up US dollar selling very forcefully after the Moody’s statement, one source with knowledge of the matter said.

The yuan was little changed by late afternoon.

The cost of insuring China’s sovereign debt against a default rose to its highest since mid-November.

“Now the markets are more concerned with the property crisis and weak growth, rather than the immediate sovereign debt risk,” said Ken Cheung, chief Asian FX strategist at Mizuho Bank in Hong Kong.

US-listed shares of Chinese companies fell, with Baidu off 0.5%, Alibaba Group Holding down 1.1%, and JD.com Jdropping 1.9%.

The move by Moody’s was the first change on its China view since it cut its rating by one notch to A1 in 2017, also citing expectations of slowing growth and rising debt.

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WhileMoody’saffirmedChina’s A1 long-term local and foreign-currency issuer ratings on Tuesday — saying the economy still has a high shock-absorption capacity — it said it expects the country’s annual GDP growth to slow to 4.0% in 2024 and 2025, and to average 3.8% from 2026 to 2030.

Moody’s main peer, S&P Global, said later in a long-scheduled global outlook call that its big concern was that “spillovers” from any worsening in the property crisis could push China’s gross domestic product growth “below 3%” next year.

Moody’s outlook downgrade comes ahead of the annual agenda-setting Central Economic Work Conference, which is expected around mid-December, with government advisers calling for a steady growth target for 2024 and more stimulus.

Analysts say the A1 rating is high enough in investment-grade territory that a downgrade is unlikely to trigger forced selling by global funds.

S&P and Fitch, the other major global rating agency, both rate China A+, the equivalent of Moody’s A1, and have stable outlooks.

China’s Finance Ministry said it was disappointed by Moody’s decision, adding that the economy will maintain its rebound and positive trend.

It also said property and local government risks are controllable.

“Moody’s concerns about China’s economic growth prospects, fiscal sustainability and other aspects are unnecessary,” the ministry said.

Most analysts believe China’s growth is on track to hit the government’s target of around 5% this year, but that compares with a COVID-weakened 2022 and activity is highly uneven.

The economy has struggled to mount a strong post-pandemic recovery as the deepening crisis in the housing market, local government debt concerns, slowing global growth and geopolitical tensions have dented momentum.

A flurry of policy support measures have proven only modestly beneficial, raising pressure on authorities to roll out more stimulus.

“We spent the better part of three years watching China have this sort of off-and-on reopening from the pandemic, and this was the year they finally sort of officially reopened,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth in New York. “But the pace at which the economy has recovered from that has been disappointing.”

Analysts widely agree that China’s growth is downshifting from breakneck expansion in the past few decades.

Many believe Beijing needs to transform its economic model from an over-reliance on debt-fueled investment to one driven more by consumer demand.

Last week, China’s central bank head Pan Gongsheng pledged to keep monetary policy accommodative to support the economy, but also urged structural reforms to reduce a reliance on infrastructure and property for growth.

After years of over-investment, plummeting returns from land sales, and soaring costs to battle COVID, economists say debt-laden municipalities now represent a major risk to the economy.

Local government debt reached 92 trillion yuan ($12.6 trillion), or 76% of China’s economic output in 2022, up from 62.2% in 2019, according to the latest data from the International Monetary Fund.

In October, China unveiled a plan to issue 1 trillion yuan ($139.84 billion) in sovereign bonds by the end of the year to help kick-start activity, raising the 2023 budget deficit target to 3.8% of gross domestic product from the original 3%.

The central bank has also implemented modest interest rate cuts and pumped more cash into the economy in recent months.

Nevertheless, foreign investors have been sour on China almost all year.

Capital outflows from China rose sharply to $75 billion in September, the biggest monthly figure since 2016, according to Goldman Sachs.

Entertainment

Davina McCall out of surgery after operation to remove brain tumour

Published

41 mins ago

November 15, 2024

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Davina McCall out of surgery after operation to remove brain tumour

Davina McCall’s partner has said she is out of surgery after undergoing an operation to remove a brain tumour.

The 57-year-old television presenter had revealed in a video posted on Instagram earlier today she had a benign brain tumour, a colloid cyst, which she described as “very rare”.

She said the chances of having it were “three in a million,” and she had discovered it a few months ago, after a company offered her a health scan in return for giving a menopause talk.

She also announced she would be having the surgery this evening.

Now her partner – hairdresser Michael Douglas – has posted on social media to say the operation went well.

He said: “Hey all. Davina is out of surgery and according to the surgeon it was textbook! She’s currently recovering in ICU as a precaution, as you can imagine she’s utterly exhausted.

“Thanks so much for all the love from everyone on here… it’s powerful stuff, we are super grateful.”

McCall earlier said the tumour’s discovery came as a shock.

She said: “I slightly put my head in the sand for a while, and then I saw quite a few neurosurgeons, I got lots of opinions. I realised that I have to get it taken out.”

McCall described it as “big”, 14mm wide, adding: “It needs to come out, because if it grows it would be bad.”

She explained that she would have it removed via a craniotomy, describing the procedure: “They go through the top of my head here and through the two halves of my brain to the middle.

“They get the cyst, take it out, empty it, and Bob’s your uncle.”

She added before the surgery: “Say a prayer for me, I am in good spirits.”

She said she would be in hospital “for around nine days”, but during her recovery, she would be “off my phone for a while”.

Joking and smiling, she urged fans “not to worry about me”, admitting, “I’m doing that enough!”

She went on to counter that, explaining: “I’m not worrying too much, and I am in a good space, and I have all the faith in the world in my surgeon and his team, and I’m handing the reins over to him. He knows what he’s doing, and I’m going to do the getting better bit after.”

She signed off saying, “see you on the other side”.

What is a benign brain tumour?

According to the NHS website, a benign (non-cancerous) brain tumour is a mass of cells that grows relatively slowly in the brain.

They are unlikely to spread, but are still serious and can be life-threatening.

When successfully removed, a tumour will not usually return at all, but if it cannot be completely removed it may grow back, and so will be monitored using scans or treated with radiotherapy.

Many people return to normal activities following successful surgery, but some are left with persistent problems, such as seizures and difficulties with speech and walking.

Non-cancerous brain tumours are more common in people over the age of 50, and symptoms include headaches, blackouts, behavioural changes and loss of consciousness.

Davina McCall says her tumour is a colloid cyst – which is made up of a gelatinous material. Symptoms can include headache, vertigo, memory deficits, diplopia, behavioural disturbances, and in extreme cases, sudden death.

Celebrity friends were quick to send their support, with stars including Rylan, Alan Carr and Holly Willoughby sending love.

According to the NHS, non-cancerous brain tumours are slow-growing and unlikely to spread, but are still serious and can be life-threatening.

McCall rose to fame presenting on MTV in the mid-1990s, and later on Channel 4’s Streetmate, before becoming a household name as the host of Big Brother from 2000 to 2010.

She’s gone on to present programmes across the networks, and currently presents ITV dating show My Mum, Your Dad.

Last year, McCall was appointed Member of the Order of the British Empire (MBE) in the 2023 Birthday Honours for services to broadcasting.

In recent years, McCall has spoken regularly on women’s health and the effects of menopause in a bid to break taboos around the subject. Her 2022 book, Menopausing, won book of the year at the British Book Awards.

The same year, McCall fronted the Channel 4 documentary Davina McCall: Sex, Mind And The Menopause, and told the BBC that the perimenopausal symptoms caused her difficulties multi-tasking and she considered that she had a brain tumour or Alzheimer’s disease at the time.

The presenter has previously raised money for Cancer Research UK by running for Race For Life in honour of her late sister, Caroline Baday, who died from lung cancer in 2012 at the age of 50.

Married twice, McCall has three children, two daughters and a son, with her second husband, presenter Matthew Robertson.

She has lived with Douglas since 2022, and they present a weekly lifestyle podcast together, Making The Cut.

Entertainment

Stars send best wishes to Davina McCall after presenter reveals rare brain tumour

Published

41 mins ago

November 15, 2024

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Stars send best wishes to Davina McCall after presenter reveals rare brain tumour

Stars have rushed to share their support after Davina McCall revealed she’s undergoing surgery to remove a rare brain tumour.

The presenter shared the news in a short Instagram video, telling fans the benign tumour is called a colloid cyst and is around 14mm wide.

McCall explained it “needed to come out, because if it grows it would be bad,” and described a procedure called a craniotomy which would remove the cyst through the top of her head.

The former Big Brother host said she was “in good spirits,” and would be in hospital “for around nine days” following the procedure.

It’s not clear on which day McCall’s surgery is scheduled, or if she has had the procedure yet.

Quick to share his love with the 57-year-old star, presenter Rylan wrote: “We’re all thinking of you beautiful,” while comedian Alan Carr wrote: “Big love my darling!!”

Ex-This Morning presenter Holly Willoughby wrote: “I’m sending you all the love and then a whole lot more,” and singer Ashley Roberts added: “All the love gorgeous one!! Sending all the healing vibes. Love you!!”

Former Popstars judge and presenter Nicki Chapman wrote: “You and I have chatted about this day… you are in amazing hands with your surgeon and the team. Everyone loves you.

“Thank you for not only being a brave girl but for sharing your condition. You will help sooooo many other people. big hugs. 30-second rule. See you soon N xx.”

Actress and chef Lisa Faulkner wrote: “Sending all my love to you. Best wishes and all positive prayers for a speedy recovery”.

McCall’s current partner, hairdresser Michael Douglas, has said he will be sharing updates from her account while she is “off-grid” and recovering, assuring fans the presenter is “in great shape and in very good hands”.

Other celebrities to share positive thoughts included Stacey Dooley, Donna Air, Helen Skelton, Denise Van Outen and Kimberly Wyatt.

McCall rose to fame presenting on MTV in the mid-1990s, and later on Channel 4’s Streetmate, before becoming a household name as the host of Big Brother from 2000 to 2010.

She’s gone on to present programmes across the networks, and last year was appointed Member of the Order of the British Empire (MBE) in the 2023 Birthday Honours for services to broadcasting.

She has three children with her second husband, presenter Matthew Robertson.

Entertainment

And the host of the Oscars is… Conan O’Brien

Published

41 mins ago

November 15, 2024

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And the host of the Oscars is… Conan O'Brien

Conan O’Brien has been announced as the host of next year’s Oscars.

It’s the Emmy Award-winning comedian’s first time heading up the ceremony, which is Hollywood‘s most high-profile showbiz event.

“America demanded it and now it’s happening: Taco Bell’s new Cheesy Chalupa Supreme. In other news, I’m hosting the Oscars,” O’Brien said in a statement.

He also shared a spoof short video on social media, showing him clasping an Oscar statuette and thanking the Academy for his Oscar, before clarifying he was hosting the show rather than receiving an award.

The 61-year-old TV presenter, writer, producer and comedian is best known for hosting the late-night talk shows Late Night with Conan O’Brien, The Tonight Show with Conan O’Brien and Conan.

Before fronting his own self-named shows, he wrote for the enormously popular US late-night sketch show Saturday Night Live and the long-running satirical cartoon The Simpsons.

Recently fronting a travelogue, Conan O’Brien Must Go, he currently hosts the podcast Conan O’Brien Needs a Friend.

Over his career, he has won five Primetime Emmys and earned 31 nominations for his work.

The last two years of the Oscars were hosted by comedian Jimmy Kimmel, who recently became emotional about Donald Trump’s re-election, and before that Regina Hall, Amy Schumer and Wanda Sykes shared the stage.

Between 2019 and 2021 the Oscars went without a main presenter.

Oscars executive producers Raj Kapoor and Katy Mullan said in a statement: “Conan has all the qualities of a great Oscars host, he is incredibly witty, charismatic and funny and has proven himself to be a master of live event television.

“We are so looking forward to working with him to deliver a fresh, exciting and celebratory show for Hollywood’s biggest night.”