What could happen if Russia wins war in Ukraine? Experts consider the scenarios
A “battered but triumphant” Russian army amassing on NATO’s borders, posing a major military threat to the alliance for the first time in three decades?
That’s what could happen if the United States cut off military aid to Ukraine and Europe followed suit, according to a prominent thinktank.
Republicans in Washington have been holding up new funds for Kyiv over demands for border control, leading to concerns over the reliability of American support.
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Things look particularly tremulous in the context of 2024: a presidential election where the presumed challenger Donald Trump is poised to abandon both Ukraine and NATO.
So as unsavoury as the thought may be for many in the West, some attention is now turning to a possible future in which aid to Ukraine is much reduced – and what it could mean for those holding the line in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a thinktank based in Washington DC, has looked at possible scenarios that could arise.
It argues that the US has a “much higher stake” in the war than most people think.
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“A Russian conquest of all of Ukraine is by no means impossible if the United States cuts off all military assistance and Europe follows suit,” ISW writers say in their new report: The High Price of Losing Ukraine.
“Such an outcome would bring a battered but triumphant Russian army right up to NATO’s border from the Black Sea to the Arctic Ocean.”
They say that Ukraine – with Western support – has destroyed nearly 90% of the Russian army that invaded in February 2022, according to US intelligence sources.
But despite these terrible casualty numbers, Russia has replaced them and is ramping up its industrial base to replenish its material losses.
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A victorious Russian army at the end of the Ukraine war, the ISW says, would be combat experienced and considerably larger than its pre-2022 forces.
Moscow’s economy would “gradually recover as sanctions inevitably erode” and its military would rebuild its coherence “drawing on a wealth of hard-won experience fighting mechanized warfare”.
It added: “It will bring with it advanced air defence systems that only American stealth aircraft – badly needed to deter and confront China – can reliably penetrate.
“Russia can pose a major conventional military threat to NATO for the first time since the 1990s in a timeframe set to a considerable extent by how much the Kremlin invests in its military.”
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The ISW argues NATO’s military potential is much greater than that of Russia – even if it fully absorbs Ukraine and Belarus.
But, it says, the costs of allowing Russia to win in Ukraine are “higher than most people imagine”.
The ISW argues:
• The US would have to deploy a “sizeable portion” of its ground forces to eastern Europe
• The US could face a “terrible choice” between keeping enough stealth aircraft in Asia to defend Taiwan and stationing them in Europe to support allies against any Russian aggression
A Ukrainian tank near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region
The thinktank’s report says: “Helping Ukraine keep the lines where they are through continuous Western military support is far more advantageous and cheaper for the United States than allowing Ukraine to lose.”
A ceasefire that “freezes” the conflict would give Russia time and space to prepare for a new war, it adds
The more territory Ukraine is able to regain, the further to the east it would push the Kremlin’s forces.
Best of all, the ISW says, would be supporting Ukraine to victory and then helping it rebuild.
This would put the “largest and most combat-effective friendly military on the European continent” at the forefront of NATO’s defence, according to the thinktank.
“A victorious Ukraine would not be a permanent ward of the West,” it says, arguing that restored to its 1991 borders its economy is big enough to support its own military.
Israel has approved a plan to capture all of the Gaza Strip and remain there for an unspecified length of time, Israeli officials say.
According to Reuters, the plan includes distributing aid, though supplies will not be let in yet.
The Israeli official told the agency that the newly approved offensive plan would move Gaza’s civilian population southward and keep humanitarian aid from falling into Hamas’s hands.
On Sunday, the United Nations rejected what it said was a new plan for aid to be distributed in what it described as Israeli hubs.
Israeli cabinet ministers approved plans for the new offensive on Monday morning, hours after it was announced that tens of thousands of reserve soldiers are being called up.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has so far failed to achieve his goal of destroying Hamas or returning all the hostages, despite more than a year of brutal war in Gaza.
Palestinian children struggle to get donated food at a community kitchen in Khan Younis, Gaza. Pic: AP
Officials say the plan will help with these war aims but it would also push hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to southern Gaza, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian crisis.
They said the plan included the “capturing of the strip and the holding of territories”.
It would also try to prevent Hamas from distributing humanitarian aid, which Israel says strengthens the group’s rule in Gaza.
The UN rejected the plan, saying it would leave large parts of the population, including the most vulnerable, without supplies.
It said it “appears designed to reinforce control over life-sustaining items as a pressure tactic – as part of a military strategy”.
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More than 52,000 Palestinians have been killed since the IDF launched its ground offensive in the densely-populated territory, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.
It followed the deadly Hamas attacks on Israel, which killed 1,200 people and saw around 250 people taken hostage.
A fragile ceasefire that saw a pause in the fighting and the exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners collapsed earlier this year.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to retaliate against the Houthis and their Iranian “masters” after the group launched a missile attack on the country’s main international airport.
A missile fired by the group from Yemen landed near Ben Gurion Airport, causing panic among passengers in the terminal building.
“Attacks by the Houthis emanate from Iran,” Mr Netanyahu wrote on X. “Israel will respond to the Houthi attack against our main airport AND, at a time and place of our choosing, to their Iranian terror masters.”
Israeli police officers investigate the missile crater. Pic: Reuters
The missile impact left a plume of smoke and briefly halted flights and commuter traffic at the airport. Some international carriers have cancelled flights to and from Tel Aviv for several days.
Four people were lightly wounded, paramedic service Magen David Adom said.
Air raid sirens went off across Israel and footage showed passengers yelling and rushing for cover.
The attack came hours before senior Israeli cabinet ministers were set to vote on whether to intensify the country’s military operations in the Gaza Strip, and as the army began calling up thousands of reserves in anticipation of a wider operation in the enclave.
Houthi military spokesperson Brigadier General Yahya Saree said the group fired a hypersonic ballistic missile at the airport.
Iran’s defence minister later told a state TV broadcaster that if the country was attacked by the US or Israel, it would target their bases, interests and forces where necessary.
Israel’s military said several attempts to intercept the missile were unsuccessful.
Air, road and rail traffic were halted after the attack, police said, though it resumed around an hour later.
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Yemen’s Houthis have been firing missiles at Israel since its war with Hamas in Gaza began on 7 October 2023, and while most have been intercepted, some have penetrated the country’s missile defence systems and caused damage.
Israel has previously struck the group in Yemen in retaliation and the US and UK have also launched strikes after the Houthis began attacking international shipping, saying it was in solidarity with Palestinians over Israel’s war with Hamas.
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