The festive season may bring back memories of Christmas COVID waves gone by.
While restrictions were in place in 2020 and 2021, many were forced to spend Christmas Day alone or isolated from loved ones.
In the latter part of this year, virus levels decreased month-on-month, but positivity rates have crept up again with increased social mixing in the run-up to 25 December.
And a sub-lineage of the so-called “Pirola” variant – JN.1 – has been spreading, with the UK Health Security Agency sub-categorising it on 4 December due to its spike protein mutation and “increasing prevalence within the UK and international data”.
In the absence of restrictions, with COVID circulating again, Sky News looks at current virus levels and what the guidance is for those who catch it over the Christmas break.
COVID rates rising
The latest data, which covers the week ending 9 December, shows COVID cases increasing by 39% on the previous week.
COVID positivity rates increased to 7.5% in England for the week ending 14 December, from 6.4% the previous week. Flu positivity also increased significantly from 2.4% to 5.6% that week.
The reversal of previously low virus trends is the inevitable result of more indoor gatherings during the festive period, scientists tell Sky News.
Professor of innate immunity at the University of Cambridge, Clare Bryant, says people have become “complacent” about COVID – despite “lots of people having it at the moment”.
“There are lots of other germs around as well – flu is circulating and other colds,” she says.
Professor Nicolas Locker, a virologist at the Pirbright Institute, adds: “We’re going to see a fairly large rise in cases this winter.
“Not because the newer JN.1 sub-lineage is more problematic or severe, but because we’re losing our defences – protections afforded by our last set of boosters, and our immunity is waning.”
What should you do if you get COVID at Christmas?
Symptoms of COVID, flu, and other respiratory infections are “very similar”, according to the NHS.
They include: a continuous cough; high temperature, loss or change in sense of taste or smell; shortness of breath; unexplained tiredness; muscle aches; loss of appetite; headache; sore throat; runny or stuffy nose; and diarrhoea or vomiting.
If you have several symptoms but cannot access a COVID test, the NHS advises you to stay at home and avoid contact with other people until you feel better or no longer have a high temperature if you have one.
It is particularly important to avoid close contact with anyone high-risk – the elderly, clinically vulnerable and their carers, and pregnant women.
If you do have to leave home, the guidance suggests you “wear a well-fitting face covering made with multiple layers – or a surgical mask”, avoid crowded or poorly-ventilated spaces, cover your mouth when you sneeze or cough, wash your hands regularly, and avoid touching your face.
If you do a COVID test and the result is positive – official guidance recommends avoiding contact with others for five days after the day of your test for adults and three days for children.
You should also avoid meeting any clinically vulnerable people for 10 days after you take your test.
Over the Christmas period, this would mean isolating in a different room to elderly or vulnerable visitors – or asking them to stay at home instead.
What is JN.1 and how widespread is it in the UK?
JN.1 is a sub-lineage of the BA.2.86 Omicron variant.
It was first detected in Luxembourg in August, before spreading to the US, UK, France and other countries.
Its parent was first detected in Denmark in July, with the first BA.2.86 cases appearing in the UK in August. It is sometimes referred to as the “Pirola” variant – but the World Health Organisation hasn’t given it an official name, as it is still a type of Omicron.
JN.1 has one mutation in its spike protein (which dictates how easily it can infect our cells) compared to BA.2.86. But there are several other mutations elsewhere.
The latest genomic sequencing data, up until 21 November, shows it as the fastest-growing variant in the UK – with a weekly growth advantage of 84%, followed by its parent BA.2.86 at 23% and JD.1.1 (a sub-lineage of the XBB variant) at 22%.
JN.1 mutations will ‘probably make it more infectious’
Prof Bryant describes the various mutations in JN.1 as “interesting”, including some unseen since the Alpha and Beta variants in 2020 and 2021.
She says the changes are likely to mean JN.1 evades our immune systems more easily – and replicates faster.
“The change in the spike protein will probably correlate to it being more infectious,” she adds.
“And that’s what’s caused us the most problems so far – because you can’t control something that’s that infectious.”
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Professor Sheena Cruickshank, immunologist at the University of Manchester, agrees and adds that it could take longer to recover from – or cause more severe disease.
“One of the mutations JN.1 seems to have has the potential to help it better latch on to cells, making it better at infecting us,” she tells Sky News.
“That coupled with immune evasion mechanisms mean it may be tricky for our immune systems to get rid of.”
Professor Locker says, however, that so far there has been no indication of increased disease severity.
“I think we’re just seeing the natural evolution of COVID and I don’t think there’s anything right now we should be overly worried about,” he says.
“These are very small changes in comparison to the ones between Omicron and the previous set of variants. And we haven’t seen a change in symptoms or severity.”
Vaccines still likely to be effective against it
Prof Locker says that another reason not to be too concerned about JN.1 is vaccine protection.
Vaccines given as part of the current booster rollout have been updated to protect against the XBB.1.5 Omicron variant, which has also been proven to work against JN.1’s parent BA.2.86.
Prof Cruickshank adds that “by inference” this should also mean current vaccines work well against JN.1.
But all three scientists point to low vaccination levels as a more general cause of concern.
Now only the over 65s, care home residents, carers, health and social care workers, and the clinically vulnerable can get booster jabs on the NHS.
And of those groups, only around 50% are taking up the offer, meaning vaccine protection is relatively low.
In a workshop in the far corner of the Styal prison estate, glass, plastic and metal are being smashed to the beat of pumping music.
Women at workstations are dismantling electronics with the energy of gym enthusiasts.
TVs and laptops, discarded at local recycling centres across England, have ended up here, on the edge of Wilmslow, Cheshire.
But amid the whiz of drills, the crunch of screens being separated from their plastic casings and the clatter of electronic boards ripped out and chucked in big bins, something else is being recycled – women’s lives.
“You get a lot of frustration out, because obviously a lot of girls have got a lot of anger, you know,” says Joanne*, who is serving time for drug offences.
She has joined this activity not for the £10 per 70 TVs she breaks apart, but because the programme – called Recycling Lives – could give her the skills and the support to keep her out of jail in the future.
Only 12% of women are employed six months after leaving prison, compared to 25% of men. In the general population employment levels between men and women are 78% to 72%.
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Ex-prisoners with a job are far less likely to re-offend. So, women prisoners are at a disadvantage. Often a man is connected to the crime they committed.
“For 90% of the women in prison, there’s always a male involved in why they’ve committed crime, it is the case with me as well,” says Joanne, who tells me she was pressured into dealing drugs by her partner.
Official Ministry of Justice statistics say that at least 60% of women in prison are victims of domestic violence and most will have experienced some form of abuse as a child.
Many, too, are mothers and they feel the guilt of separation every day. Joanne says of her son: “It’s my sister picking him up from school, not me.
“It’s my sister there on Christmas day, not me. Birthdays, all the special occasions. It’s heart-breaking.
“People think prison is easy. You are ripped away from your family and your children. It’s not easy.”
As if in illustration, the glass cracks on an iPad, as she peels it away with her screwdriver.
Official figures say there are around 3,500 women in prison and it is estimated that about half are mothers.
‘I’m trying to give them a future’
The workshop manager Yvonne Grime knows this all too well. A former serial offender herself, she’s the first former inmate at Styal to now hold a set of keys to the prison.
“The biggest thing for me [as a prisoner] was leaving my children,” she says, “and I still carry that guilt round, but I have come through it.”
Part of her redemption is to help the women in her workshop. The Recycling Lives programme transformed her life, and she wants to give back.
She says: “I’m trying to give them a future. I’m trying to give you some hope that they can that they can change.
“Get the children back, find a job, find a home. There is light at the end of the tunnel.”
Her work is part manager and part mentor. “When I first started, I thought I’m just going to come in and run this workshop,” she said.
“I didn’t realise I had to be their mum, their dad, their brother, their sister, the doctor, the nurse, the everything that comes with it.
“If I had a salary for every one of those professions, I’d be absolutely minted.”
Styal isn’t what you expect a prison to look like.
Inside the high fences and barbed wire are sixteen austere red-brick Victorian houses.
Once an orphanage, they’re now the prison’s accommodation blocks.
Ted the prison cat, wanders from block to block, and has already served several of his nine lives in the compound.
Along with recycling TV sets, women can learn to guide and drive forklift trucks.
They are quick with their tools, spinning through one appliance after another with remarkable and methodical destructive pace.
But the real advantage of the programme is that it continues on the outside. Only 6% of people who go through Recycling Lives go on to commit further crime. The general reoffending rate is 25%.
In a warehouse in Preston, former inmates are involved in recycling food from supermarkets and farms, then sent to foodbanks.
Here we meet Naomi Winter, who – three years since being released from jail – is now a manager at the food distribution depot.
The hardest thing about prison for her too was being separated from a child.
“I was put in prison when my baby is only three months old,” she said.
“So, it was like losing an arm, like losing a piece of my DNA.
“I still woke up for night feeds in the night and stuff like that.”
She says there wasn’t the mental health provision inside of prison to help her deal with post-natal depression, and she spent way too much time alone with her thoughts.
She was in and out of prison for drug offences and violence eight times by the age of 30 and first jailed aged 15, for breaching an anti-social behaviour order (ASBO).
She feels even short prison sentences can ruin lives, and says: “You take women who’s robbed a block of cheese to feed the child.
“They put them in prison for 28 days. They take the home, take the kids, they lose the family, and they get out with nothing. You just create a criminal right there.
“You’ve just created a woman who’s got nothing to lose. You’re also releasing them with a sleeping bag in a tent and telling them to go and sleep in the woods.”
Alternatives to custody
The government recognises that prison isn’t working for many of the women who end up there.
It’s why, with women being mostly non-violent offenders and serving short sentences, the government is setting up a Women’s Justice Board to look at reducing the number who go into prison with alternatives such as community sentences and intervention projects tackling the root causes of re-offending.
The Lord Chancellor and Justice Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, told Sky News: “For many women, prison isn’t working. Most women in prisons are victims themselves. Over half are mothers, with a prison sentence separating parent and child.
“That’s why I am establishing a new Women’s Justice Board, tasked with reducing the number of women in prison by exploring alternatives to custody for female offenders.”
Chief Executive of Recycling Lives, Alasdair Jackson says: “There are certain things we all need as human beings: One is a place to live, one is a job to be able to pay for that place to live and then a support network.
“But there are a lot more factors that women have to contend with; there’s children, there is maybe domestic abuse, there’s everything that goes on around that, but when you give people a chance, when you give people the skills that they need, it is life-changing.
“And when you change a woman’s life, you are often changing the family’s life and the children’s life.”
Prison is supposed to be part punishment, part repair job. But there are limited programmes like Recycling Lives, and for many women entering jail currently, the only recycling is back into criminality.
The world’s oldest man has died at the age of 112, the Guinness World Records has announced.
John Tinniswood was born in Liverpool on 26 August 1912, the year the Titanic sank. He was a lifelong Liverpool FC fan, born just 20 years after the club was founded.
He died on Monday at a care home in Southport, Guinness World Records said.
In a statement, his family said: “His last day was surrounded by music and love.
“John always liked to say thank you. So on his behalf, thanks to all those who cared for him over the years, including his carers at the Hollies Care Home, his GPs, district nurses, occupational therapist and other NHS staff.”
In April 2024, aged 111, he became the world’s oldest living man, following the death of 114-year-old Juan Vicente Perez from Venezuela.
Mr Tinniswood’s key advice for staying healthy was to practice moderation. “If you drink too much or you eat too much or you walk too much; if you do too much of anything, you’re going to suffer eventually.”
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But when asked the secret to his longevity after turning 112 in August, Mr Tinniswood put it all down to “just luck”.
“I can’t think of any special secrets I have,” he said. “I was quite active as a youngster, I did a lot of walking.
“Whether that had something to do with it, I don’t know. But to me, I’m no different [to anyone]. No different at all.
“I just take it in my stride like anything else, why I’ve lived that long I have no idea at all.”
Apart from a portion of battered fish and chips every Friday, Mr Tinniswood did not follow any particular diet, and said earlier this year he felt “no different” turning 112.
“I don’t feel that age, I don’t get excited over it. That’s probably why I’ve reached it.
“I just take it in my stride like anything else, why I’ve lived that long I have no idea at all.”
He lived through both world wars and was a Second World War veteran – having worked in an administrative role for the Army Pay Corps.
In addition to accounts and auditing, his work involved logistical tasks such as locating stranded soldiers and organising food supplies. He went on to work as an accountant for Shell and BP before retiring in 1972.
He met his wife, Blodwen, at a dance in Liverpool. They were together for 44 years before Blodwen died in 1986.
Mr Tinniswood is survived by his daughter Susan, four grandchildren and three great-grandchildren, and lived to be the fourth-oldest British man in recorded history.
His family added: “John had many fine qualities. He was intelligent, decisive, brave, calm in any crisis, talented at maths and a great conversationalist.
“John moved to the Hollies rest home just before his 100th birthday and his kindness and enthusiasm for life were an inspiration to the care home staff and his fellow residents.”
The oldest ever man was Jiroemon Kimura from Japan, who lived to the age of 116 years 54 days and died in 2013.
The world’s oldest living woman, and oldest living person, is Japan’s 116-year-old Tomiko Itooka.