Europe has record gas stocks for this winter — but consumers still face historically higher bills
A worker heats the seal of a joint between two segments of pipe during construction of a section of an interconnector gas pipeline, linking the gas networks of Bulgaria and Serbia, on the outskirts of Sofia, Bulgaria, on Friday, Feb.24, 2023. Bulgaria has begun work on a new pipeline to neighboring Serbia that will enable gas supplies from other countries to reduce dependence on Russian flows. Photographer: Oliver Bunic/Bloomberg via Getty Images
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A feared European winter gas shortage has yet to materialize for the second year in a row — but consumers are set to stay stuck paying significantly higher rates than they used to.
A crisis situation was averted last winter, following a scramble to find new suppliers, reopen old storage facilities and roll out initiatives to reduce consumption in some energy-intensive areas, as flows from Russia dried up in the wake of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
According to research published by Moody’s this month, the EU had record high gas stocks of around 97.5% at the end November 2023, meaning both very low risk of energy shortages this winter and a strong position for the next cold season, analysts found.
“Europe’s improved energy reserves going into this winter are the result of the effectiveness of government actions on the supply and demand side, and consistent energy savings by both households and companies,” the Moody’s report stated, citing greater supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2023, a higher availability of nuclear and hydropower plants and a mild winter as improving the situation.
Lower consumption has also been helped by economic stagnation in the continent, the report said.
Moody’s expects gas storage to be higher than previously anticipated at 55% at the end of March 2024.
Household and business bills
Yet, “European gas prices will remain high and volatile,” the report finds.
Energy has been one of the strongest forces pulling down inflation in recent months, after being a chief driver in hikes in consumer prices suffered in the immediate wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Annual headline inflation was 2.4% in November in the euro zone, with energy showing disinflation of 11.5% year-on-year, even as the extent of price rises simply moderated in all other sectors.
In the U.K., gas price inflation has plunged by 31% in the year to November, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed.
But all that is a fall off the back of a very large spike.
Using Factset data, Moody’s found that European gas prices are well above their 2015-2019 average — and sees them remaining above this level until at least 2031. In 2020 and 2021, prices were below the average.
“The tariffs paid by households and industries are still historically very high,” James Waddell, head of European gas and global LNG at Energy Aspects, told CNBC by email.
“Movements in these prices generally follow movements in the wholesale gas market with a lag of several months, because of supplier hedging. So the fall in European wholesale gas prices from last year has not fully been passed through yet.”
Wholesale prices are overall around four times lower than they averaged over 2022, but still more than double what they were historically, Waddell said.
“This means that there are still price pressures on households and industries and in the case of the latter, increasingly we see interest in these firms relocating production outside of Europe.”
He also said that, despite healthy supply in the short term, concerns remain about the ability for European gas storage capacity to set itself up for the years ahead, since “stocks can be drawn down quickly in the event of cold weather.” That can also be the case if an increase in Asian demand pulls a lot of LNG away from Europe, he said.
Moody’s says gas prices will stay volatile primarily because of “increased geopolitical risks, which reflect their intrinsic vulnerability to supply disruptions.”
It cites various downside risks to its gas market outlook, including a further cut in Russian pipeline supply and episodes of supply disruption, as seen in the strikes at Australian LNG facilities earlier this year.
Additional volatility has arisen following the Israel-Hamas war, which has lifted risk premiums and driven spot gas prices higher despite Europe’s relative distance from the conflict, researchers say.
According to Moody’s, “Under the unlikely adverse scenario where the conflict could escalate to the broader region with the direct involvement of Iran, European gas prices could spike to similar levels seen following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This scenario would hurt economic activity and add further challenges for energy-intensive sectors.”
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Trails of Iranian ballistic missiles light up the night sky as seen from Gaza City during renewed missile strikes launched by Iran in retaliation against Israel on June 15, 2025.
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Tehran will “pay the price” for its fresh missile onslaught against Israel, the Jewish state’s defense minister warned Monday, as markets braced for a fourth day of ramped-up conflict between the regional powers.
Fire exchanges have continued since Israel’s Friday attack against Iran, with Iranian media reporting Tehran’s latest strikes hit Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Haifa, home to a major refinery. CNBC has reached out to operator Bazan for comment on the state of operations at the Haifa plant, amid reports of damage to Israel’s energy infrastructure.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said overnight it deployed “innovative methods” that “disrupted the enemy’s multi-layered defense systems, to the point that the Zionist air defense systems engaged in targeting each other,” according to a statement obtained by NBC News.
Israel has widely depended on its highly efficient Iron Dome missile defense system to fend off attacks throughout regional conflicts — but even it can be overwhelmed if a large number of projectiles are fired.
The fresh hostilities are front-of-mind for investors, who have been weighing the odds of further escalation in the conflict and spillover into the broader oil-rich Middle East, amid concerns over crude supplies and the key shipping lane through the Strait of Hormuz connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
Oil prices retained the gains of recent days and at 09:19 a.m. London time, Ice Brent futures with August delivery were trading at $73.81 per barrel, down 0.57% from the previous trading session. The Nymex WTI contract with July expiry was at $72.7 per barrel, 0.38% lower.
Elsewhere, however, markets showed initial signs of shrugging off the latest hostilities early on Monday.
Spot prices for key safe-haven asset gold retreated early morning, down 0.42% to $3,417.83 per ounce after nearly notching a two-year-high earlier in the session, with U.S. gold futures also down 0.65% to $ 3,430.5
Tel Aviv share indices pointed higher, with the blue-chip TA-35 up 0.99% and the wider TA-125 up 1.33%.
European stock markets opened higher Monday, meanwhile, and U.S. stock futures were also in the green.
Luis Costa, global head of EM sovereign credit at Citigroup Global Markets, signaled the muted reaction could be, in part, attributed to hopes of a brisk resolution to the conflict.
“So markets are obviously, you know, bearing in mind all potential scenarios. There are obviously potentially very bad scenarios in this story,” he told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” on Monday. “But there is still a way out in terms of, you know, a faster resolution and bringing Iran to the table, or a short continuation here, of a very surgical and intense strike by the Israeli army.”
U.S. response in focus
As of Monday morning, Israel’s national emergency service Magen David Adom reported four dead and 87 injured following rocket strikes at four sites in “central Israel,” reporting collapsed buildings, fire and people trapped under debris.
Accusing Tehran of targeting civilians in Israel to prevent the Israel Defense Forces from “continuing the attack that is collapsing its capabilities,” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, a close longtime ally of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said in a Google-translated social media update that “the residents of Tehran will pay the price, and soon.”
The IDF on Sunday said it had in turn “completed a wide-scale wave of strikes on numerous weapon production sites belonging to the Quds Force, the IRGC and the Iranian military, in Tehran.”
CNBC could not independently verify developments on the ground.
The U.S.’ response is now in focus, given its close support and arms provision to Israel, the unexpected cancellation of Washington’s latest nuclear deal talks with Iran, and President Donald Trump’s historically hard-hitting stance against Tehran during his first term.
Trump, who has been pushing Iran for a deal over its nuclear program, has weighed in on the conflict, opposing an Israeli proposal to kill Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to NBC News.
Discussions about the conflict are expected to take place during the ongoing meeting of the G7, encapsulating Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S., along with the European Union.
— CNBC’s Katrina Bishop contributed to this report.
A Tesla Model 3 got stuck on a train track and was hit, albeit slightly, by a train in Sinking Spring, PA. The driver claimed it was in “self-driving mode.”
According to the fire alerts in Berks County, a Tesla Model 3 drove around a train track barrier near South Hull Street and Columbia Avenue and got stuck in the tracks.
The driver was able to exit the vehicle, but a train hit the car, reportedly snapping off the side mirror.
The fire commissioner ordered to stop all train traffic as the emergency services worked to get the Model 3 off the tracks using a crane.
Spitlers Garage & Towing, performed the recovery and shared a few pictures on Facebook:
The Tesla driver reportedly claimed that the vehicle was in “self-driving mode” leading up to getting stuck on the train tracks.
Tesla claims that all its vehicles built since 2016 will be capable of unsupervised self-driving with software updates; however, this has yet to occur.
Instead, Tesla has been selling a “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) package for up to $15,000 that requires the driver to constantly supervise the vehicle, with the driver remaining responsible for the car at all times.
Electrek’s Take
There have been instances of Tesla drivers engaging in reckless behavior and then attributing it to the Full Self-Driving (FSD) features.
I’m not saying it’s the case here, but it’s a possibility.
On the other side, I’ve seen FSD try to navigate around construction barriers. It’s possible that it tried to do that in this case, here and then got caught on the tracks.
We would need more data.
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