Angola’s OPEC exit highlights group tensions – but is unlikely to rattle the market
Angola’s announcement on Thursday that it will quit the oil producers’ Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) brings to a head longstanding tensions within the powerful group, but market impact is likely to be limited, according to analysts.
The move “did not come as a surprise, [as] the writing was on the wall already last month,” Clay Seigle, director of the global oil service at Rapidan Energy Group, told CNBC’s “Last Call” Thursday.
A meeting of the extended OPEC+ group in November was dominated by a deep disagreement on production baselines — the levels that determine quotas and compliance — with oil-reliant Angola and Nigeria both opposing efforts to deepen their baselines as they seek to boost their declining outputs. Angola’s oil minister said Thursday that OPEC membership no longer served the country’s interests.
Angola’s exit leaves OPEC with 12 members, with crude oil production of about 27 million bpd, or around 27% of the world oil market, according to Reuters. Angola accounted for less than 4% of OPEC production, Scotiabank analysts said.
Angola follows on the footsteps of Ecuador and Qatar, which left the organization in 2020 and 2018, respectively.
“We think it’s really a one and done move between Angola and OPEC,” Seigle told CNBC’s Brian Sullivan.
“The market should not get complacent, thinking that OPEC cohesion is falling apart and there’s going to be some kind of domino effect.”
Giovanni Staunovo, commodities analyst at UBS, noted that oil prices had already rebounded from a dip on Thursday.
“The explanation is that from an oil market supply perspective, the impact is minimal as oil production in Angola was on a downward trend over the last years,” he said in emailed comments Friday.
“No one expects that the departure of Angola from OPEC is likely to result in more barrels hitting the market, as higher production would first require higher investments.”
The market has concerns about unity, but there is no indication at present that heavyweights within the alliance intend to follow Angola’s path, Staunovo added.
Rising tension
Analysts at Scotiabank said in a note on Thursday that, while there would be no impact on global oil supply due to Angola already maximizing its production, the latest OPEC departure was “another example of the rising tension” in the group.
“We won’t be surprised if other more marginal players such as Congo, [Equatorial Guinea], Gabon, etc. revisit their OPEC membership,” they wrote.
The analysts therefore expect a slightly negative impact on energy shares in the near-term, since the move “provides a fresh excuse for the players to extend their negative bias in the oil market.”
More significant than Angola’s departure is the upcoming introduction of Brazil to OPEC+ — which reunites OPEC members and allies including Russia — and the fact that U.S. crude output is currently at record highs, Rapidan’s Clay Seigle said.
“[Those producers] are really moving the needle on global supply-demand balances and in a way presenting a bit of a challenge for the members of OPEC+ to manage a pretty well-supplied market, relative to demand, not just in the coming year 2024 but in the next several years.”
“That’s going to be the challenge they face, in trying to send the right signals to the market that they have the capability and the cohesion to continue that balance,” Seigle added.
Brazil has yet to accept a production quota, and its energy minister said in November that the country must still review the document that underpins the OPEC+ partnership.
Elon Musk is starting to realize, or at least admit, that Trump and the GOP are going to hurt Tesla greatly by removing battery and solar incentives without removing incentives for fossil fuels.
Many people were shocked when Elon Musk decided to back Donald Trump and the Republican Party, considering they have consistently attacked clean energy and electric vehicles, which are Tesla’s main products.
The GOP has been undermining renewable energy for years, and it doesn’t look like Musk’s $300 million donation to Trump and influence on the GOP were able to change that, as the latest budget to pass the GOP controlled-Congress undoes a lot of progress made by the Biden administration on clean energy and electric vehicle adoption.
The budget removes the $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles, which is a big part of Tesla’s success in the US. It also kills incentives to build batteries in the US – another incentive that greatly benefited Tesla.
It also removes 30% tax credit on battery storage and solar, which greatly helped Tesla’s energy division.
Yesterday, Tesla issued a statement calling for the Trump government to gradually phase out those incentives rather than removing them altogether:
Abruptly ending the energy tax credits would threaten America’s energy independence and the reliability of our grid – we urge the senate to enact legislation with a sensible wind down of 25D and 48e. This will ensure continued speedy deployment of over 60 GW capacity per year to support AI and domestic manufacturing growth.
Musk shared the statement and then added that while the government that he helped elect is removing incentives for electric vehicles and clean energy, it is not removing those for oil and gas:
The US is incentivizing the oil and gas industry at a rate of hundreds of billions of dollars per year.
Before backing Trump and the Republican Party, Musk had stated that he would be for the removal of EV and clean energy incentives if incentives for fossil fuels were also removed.
Musk has officially exited the Trump administration this week.
Electrek’s Take
It’s interesting to see Musk finally speaking out, albeit weakly, against some of Trump’s policies for the first time. He did note that the budget bill would increase the deficit, and now this.
A quick reminder that Musk said that Trump was the “only one who could save the Western world” and that if he is not elected, the US is basically done.
His stated goals with Trump were to “kill the woke mind virus” and get the deficit and debt under control.
The US has never been more divided, and Trump is pushing a budget that would add about $4 trillion to the US debt over the next few years. His backing of Trump hasn’t achieved anything meaningful toward those goals. Of course, Musk’s real goal in backing Trump was likely to get federal regulators and agencies that were closing in on him and his businesses off his back.
He was successful in doing that, but at what cost?
The EV tax credit is a significant factor in maintaining Tesla’s demand in the US, which is essentially its last primary market where it sells vehicles at a profit.
The removal of the 30% ITC for solar and energy storage would significantly slow down Tesla’s energy storage business, which has been its only growing business for the last two years.
In short, the budget would greatly weaken Tesla’s business in the US, which was its last remaining market that wasn’t doing too badly. Canada is gone. Europe is gone, and Tesla is facing tremendous pressure from competition in China.
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The GV90 is set to raise the bar as the most luxurious Genesis SUV. If you thought the GV80 was impressive, wait until you see this larger, three-row electric flagship. After it was recently spotted in the US, we are getting our first glimpse of the ultra-luxe Genesis GV90’s interior.
First look at the Genesis GV90 interior in the US
Genesis previewed the flagship SUV at the NY Auto Show last March with the Neolun concept, which the brand refers to as its “ultra-luxe vision of luxury SUVs.”
It’s not only stunning on the outside, but the full-size SUV will introduce advanced new tech and upscale design features for “a whole new level of luxury.”
Drawing inspiration from Korean aesthetics, the interior is fit for royalty. The concept featured a “Royal Indigo” cashmere and a vintage-like “Purple Silk” leather. Genesis topped it off with dark-colored wood accents for an even more luxurious feel.
After it was spotted in public in California, it looks like the interior of the Genesis GV90 will retain some elements from the concept.
The new photos, courtesy of The Korean Car Blog, offer a sneak peek at what we can expect when it arrives in production form.
You’ll notice that the color scheme remains largely the same, with purple accents on the door trim, seats, and other interior elements.
The GV90 will serve as the luxury brand’s tech beacon, featuring Hyundai Motor’s latest technology and software. A 24″ infotainment system will sit at the center with navigation and voice command recognition.
It will also feature a 3D audio experience with tweeters, midrange speakers, woofers, and subwoofers strategically placed, creating an immersive audio experience. The iconic Crystal Sphere is not only a centerpiece, but it will also serve as a hi-fi tweeter speaker.
According to Luc Donckerwolke, Genesis’ chief creative officer, the concept is “the epitome of timeless design and sophisticated craftsmanship.” Do you agree?
With GV90 models now in public testing, Genesis appears to be on track to launch the flagship SUV in mid-2026. Earlier this month, we got a closer look at the exterior after it was caught testing at the Nürburgring with less camo.
More details, including prices and final specs, will be revealed closer to launch. However, it is expected to ride on Hyundai’s new eM platform, which will replace its current E-GMP.
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Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images
The SEC has formally dropped its lawsuit against Binance and founder Changpeng Zhao, bringing an end to one of the last remaining crypto enforcement actions brought by the agency.
In a Thursday filing in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, lawyers for the SEC and Binance jointly moved to dismiss the case, which was first brought in June 2023.
The original complaint accused the crypto exchange of violations including illegally serving U.S. users, inflating trading volumes, and commingling customer funds. The agency also claimed that Binance unlawfully enabled trading in crypto assets it viewed as unregistered securities, an argument that was also used against Coinbase, Kraken, and others under prior SEC leadership.
The dismissal marks a symbolic end to one of the most aggressive crypto crackdowns in U.S. history, and comes as the Trump administration makes a concerted effort to prove that it’s an ally to the industry. The Justice Department has already shut down its crypto enforcement team, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is now set to be led by a venture capitalist with close ties to crypto.
Binance is the largest digital assets exchange in the world by volume. It recently forged ties with World Liberty Financial, a project that aspires to be a crypto bank and funnels 75% of profits to entities linked to the Trump family. Binance is taking a $2 billion investment from the Emirati state fund MGX entirely in USD1, a stablecoin newly launched by the World Liberty team.
Binance and World Liberty are also deepening their footprint in Pakistan, where WLF co-founder Zack Witkoff, the son of U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, recently struck a deal with the government. Around the same time, Zhao was appointed as an adviser to Pakistan’s newly formed Crypto Council, a state-backed body tasked with shaping national digital asset policy.
The SEC was the last major regulator still pursuing Binance after a $4.3 billion settlement with the U.S. government last year that saw Zhao plead guilty and step down as CEO, while avoiding jail time and retaining much of his wealth.
The agency’s motion to dismiss was granted with prejudice, meaning the SEC can’t refile the same claims.
Under the SEC’s new leadership, the agency has shifted away from enforcement and toward engagement and regulatory rollback. It’s held a series of roundtables led by Commissioner Hester Peirce and newly appointed Chair Paul Atkins.
The SEC has also begun dismantling key rules that once kept Wall Street on the sidelines. In January, it scrapped Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 — a controversial directive issued under former Chair Gary Gensler that forced banks to count crypto holdings as liabilities on their balance sheets. Peirce celebrated the reversal on X, posting, “Bye, bye SAB 121! It’s not been fun.”
In February, the agency followed up with new guidance indicating that it doesn’t view most meme coins as securities under federal law, providing a boon to the Trump family.
President Trump and several of his family members are closely tied to crypto ventures, including the $TRUMP token, which launched just before his January inauguration. The coin currently boasts a market cap of about $2.4 billion, with its website claiming that 80% of the supply is held by the Trump Organization and affiliated entities.
WATCH: President Trump holds controversial private dinner for top investors in his meme coin
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