Angola’s OPEC exit highlights group tensions – but is unlikely to rattle the market
Angola’s announcement on Thursday that it will quit the oil producers’ Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) brings to a head longstanding tensions within the powerful group, but market impact is likely to be limited, according to analysts.
The move “did not come as a surprise, [as] the writing was on the wall already last month,” Clay Seigle, director of the global oil service at Rapidan Energy Group, told CNBC’s “Last Call” Thursday.
A meeting of the extended OPEC+ group in November was dominated by a deep disagreement on production baselines — the levels that determine quotas and compliance — with oil-reliant Angola and Nigeria both opposing efforts to deepen their baselines as they seek to boost their declining outputs. Angola’s oil minister said Thursday that OPEC membership no longer served the country’s interests.
Angola’s exit leaves OPEC with 12 members, with crude oil production of about 27 million bpd, or around 27% of the world oil market, according to Reuters. Angola accounted for less than 4% of OPEC production, Scotiabank analysts said.
Angola follows on the footsteps of Ecuador and Qatar, which left the organization in 2020 and 2018, respectively.
“We think it’s really a one and done move between Angola and OPEC,” Seigle told CNBC’s Brian Sullivan.
“The market should not get complacent, thinking that OPEC cohesion is falling apart and there’s going to be some kind of domino effect.”
Giovanni Staunovo, commodities analyst at UBS, noted that oil prices had already rebounded from a dip on Thursday.
“The explanation is that from an oil market supply perspective, the impact is minimal as oil production in Angola was on a downward trend over the last years,” he said in emailed comments Friday.
“No one expects that the departure of Angola from OPEC is likely to result in more barrels hitting the market, as higher production would first require higher investments.”
The market has concerns about unity, but there is no indication at present that heavyweights within the alliance intend to follow Angola’s path, Staunovo added.
Rising tension
Analysts at Scotiabank said in a note on Thursday that, while there would be no impact on global oil supply due to Angola already maximizing its production, the latest OPEC departure was “another example of the rising tension” in the group.
“We won’t be surprised if other more marginal players such as Congo, [Equatorial Guinea], Gabon, etc. revisit their OPEC membership,” they wrote.
The analysts therefore expect a slightly negative impact on energy shares in the near-term, since the move “provides a fresh excuse for the players to extend their negative bias in the oil market.”
More significant than Angola’s departure is the upcoming introduction of Brazil to OPEC+ — which reunites OPEC members and allies including Russia — and the fact that U.S. crude output is currently at record highs, Rapidan’s Clay Seigle said.
“[Those producers] are really moving the needle on global supply-demand balances and in a way presenting a bit of a challenge for the members of OPEC+ to manage a pretty well-supplied market, relative to demand, not just in the coming year 2024 but in the next several years.”
“That’s going to be the challenge they face, in trying to send the right signals to the market that they have the capability and the cohesion to continue that balance,” Seigle added.
Brazil has yet to accept a production quota, and its energy minister said in November that the country must still review the document that underpins the OPEC+ partnership.
Fancy German-made mid-drives are often considered the premier option for electric bikes, offering higher precision engineering and an overall more sophisticated experience. But they’ve also been quite pricey, at least until Ride1Up began running an incredible sale on its normally $2,195 Prodigy XC electric mountain bike, marked down to just $1,295.
I reviewed the urban version of this bike back when it was at full price, and it was a great buy even at its MSRP. But now with this killer Black Friday price, this is a deal that is unlikely to ever be seen again.
The Class 3 electric bicycle can hit speeds of up to 28 mph (45 km/h), and comes with all the benefits of that nice Brose TF Sprinter mid-drive motor. That means you get the smooth and refined torque sensor-based pedal assist, the color screen, and the higher-end ride quality.
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At this price, Ride1Up is almost certainly selling the bike at below cost, meaning you’re getting it for less than it costs the company to build these highly-acclaimed e-bikes.
Why would they do that? Because this is the previous generation of the bike, which was eclipsed by the second-generation Prodigy V2. But hey, if this bike was good enough when it came out a year before the V2 (and it was), then it still a great bike today. For those who don’t need the nicest and newest version of a piece of tech, this is an incredible steal of a deal.
Ride1Up is all but certain to be moving these Prodigy XCs at such a low price to clear up shelf space in their warehouse, so when these are gone, they’re gone for good. And this isn’t only a Black Friday price – the company has been moving these bikes for several months at this crazy sale price. That further underscores that this is a clear-out-the-previous-version sale that will be gone for good when the bikes are gone.
At this price, there’s simply no other German-made mid-drive e-bike out there with the bang-for-buck offered by the $1,295 Prodigy XC right now, that’s for sure.
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Working oil pumps against a sunset sky.
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Higher fuel prices could be in the cards if President-elect Donald Trump follows through with his tariff threats on Canada, according to industry experts, who are skeptical on whether the new levies will ever be implemented.
Trump on Monday pledged to implement additional tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico on day one of his presidency, according to his posts on social media platform Truth Social. He said he would sign an executive order on Jan. 20 imposing a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico, a move that may breach the terms of a regional free trade agreement.
Goldman Sachs’ Co-Head of Global Commodities Research Daan Struyven said that if a 25% levy hit Canadian crude exports to the U.S. “that could, in theory, lead to some pretty significant consequences for three groups.”
U.S. refiners who rely on Canadian oil barrels could face lower profit margins, and consumers may potentially face higher prices, surmised Struyven. Lastly, Canadian producers may suffer revenue losses if they are unable to reroute their barrels that would have otherwise gone to the U.S.
America’s imports of Canadian crude oil hit a record of 4.3 million barrels per day in July 2024 after the expansion of Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline, according to the most recent data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
If we were to see a 25% tariff on Canadian energy exports, I think it could have some very significant ramifications for trade flows.
Daan Struyven
Goldman Sachs
Additionally, refiners in the Midwest, which are more adapted to process Canada’s heavy sour crude rather than the low sulfur sweet crude produced domestically, could also have problems switching should the Canadian imports be interrupted, Struyven told journalists at an online conference.
“If we were to see a 25% tariff on Canadian energy exports, I think it could have some very significant ramifications for trade flows,” Struyven said.
Mexico and especially Canada have “notable tightly integrated linkages” with the U.S. when it comes to the oil, natural gas and auto industries, Citigroup wrote in a note following Trump’s announcements this week.
“Absent carve-outs, this would increase costs for U.S. refiners and U.S. consumers,” said the bank’s research team led by Energy Strategist Eric Lee.
However, Goldman highlighted that it is unlikely that the tariffs will be implemented as announced, on the premise that the Trump administration is focused on reducing energy costs.
Trump cannot allow inflation to get out of control in the 15 months before the midterm election season, Viktor Shvets, global strategist at Macquarie Capital, told CNBC. Shvets believes that tariffs are used as a negotiating tool to achieve certain objectives such as strengthening the border.
“I do not believe for a second that there will be a massive increase in overall tariffs because that will represent a tax on U.S. domestic manufacturers. That will also represent a tax on U.S. exporters,” said Shvets.
Canada’s trade bodies have shared their concerns, too.
“As Canadians, we need to be eyes-wide-open on the President-elect’s promise for across-the-board tariffs,” the CEO of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, Lisa Baiton, reportedly said.
Danielle Smith, the premier of Alberta which accounts for the largest production of crude in Canada, said that the Trump administration has “valid concerns related to illegal activities at our shared border,” and urged the federal government to resolve said issues immediately to avoid any “unnecessary tariffs” on Canadian exports.
On today’s fact-checking episode of Quick Charge, we’ve got a showdown brewing between California Governor Gavin Newsom and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, an updated 650 hp Kia EV6 GT that’s ready to take on the world, and some sweet deals on battery-powered goodies.
We’ve also got new electric buses at UCLA that are powered by inductive current in the road itself, and a massive new solar project on a site more famous for coal than clean. All this and a little bit of fact-checking on some fresh musky nonsense – enjoy!
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Read more: E-quipment highlight | Palfinger FLS 25 eDRIVE truck mounted forklift.
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