Last year, in the inaugural season of the 12-team College Football Playoff, eight of the teams that qualified had two losses.

Five of the seven at-large teams had two losses, and three of the five conference champions had at least two losses. Keep that in mind as more contenders fall each week and the playoff picture changes — this system is more forgiving.

Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into five groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. Teams listed as On the cusp are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. A team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now. And a team that is Out will have to wait until next year.

The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to-date.

Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

SEC

Spotlight: Vanderbilt. The Commodores probably have more work to do in the selection committee meeting room than with the AP Poll voters. As good as the win against LSU was, it was Vandy’s first win against a Power 4 opponent with a winning record. Both Virginia Tech and South Carolina are sub-.500 teams right now, and wins against FCS Charleston Southern, a 1-6 Sun Belt team in Georgia State and a three-loss Utah State team aren’t enough to make the CFP. Vandy has enough opportunities, though, to change that, starting Saturday. If Vandy beats Mizzou, its chances of reaching the CFP will climb to 49%. A loss, though, would drop that to 14%. Vanderbilt’s toughest remaining games are against Missouri, at Texas and at Tennessee in the regular-season finale. If the Commodores lose one more game and finish 10-2, they’ve still got a chance, but how that résumé stacks up with other 10-2 teams leaves the door open for debate.

Enigma: Missouri. The Tigers are in a similar spot to Vanderbilt, with a loss to Alabama and even less to compensate for it. Missouri’s best win might have been Saturday’s double overtime win at now four-loss Auburn. It also has an FCS win against 2-4 Central Arkansas, a win against a 2-5 Sun Belt team in Louisiana and a win against a 0-7 MAC team, Massachusetts. Both Kansas and South Carolina are unranked and sub-.500. A win at Vanderbilt on Saturday would give Missouri its first ranked win AND its first win against ANY opponent with a winning record. A loss would put the Tigers in a must-win situation in November, needing to beat Texas A&M and win at Oklahoma on Nov. 22. Missouri has found ways to win against lesser competition, but it needs the second half of the season to show the committee it can do it against more elite teams, too.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

On the cusp: Vanderbilt

Work to do: LSU, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas

Would be out: Mississippi State

Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, South Carolina, Florida

Big Ten

Spotlight: USC. Many were quick to dismiss the two-loss Trojans following their road loss to rival Notre Dame, but it was a nonconference game and USC still has a chance to change the Big Ten’s playoff picture. If USC can run the table, that would include a Nov. 22 win at Oregon (another team that could fall under the enigma category, given what has happened to Penn State). That head-to-head result would be critical because in that scenario, both teams would have two losses, and it’s one of the committee’s tiebreakers when teams are comparable. That’s currently the only game left on USC’s schedule that it’s not projected to win, as ESPN Analytics favors the Ducks (72.3%). That’s why USC currently has the fourth-best chance in the Big Ten to reach the playoff (15%) behind Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon.

Enigma: Iowa. The Hawkeyes have quietly won four of their past five games, that lone loss coming Sept. 27 to Indiana — by a whopping five points. Is that really the gap between Iowa and the nation’s No. 2 team? Iowa has a chance to prove it in the second half of the season with back-to-back games against Oregon and at USC. Iowa would have to run the table and finish 10-2 to have a chance — and ESPN Analytics gives the Hawkeyes a less than 1% chance to do that. In addition to the loss to the Hoosiers, Iowa also lost at rival Iowa State, and the selection committee would consider that it was a close loss on the road early in the season to an in-state rival. It’s not a dagger — nor is a close loss to Indiana — but the Hawkeyes still have a lot to prove, and it won’t be easy. Iowa has less than a 50% chance to beat Oregon, USC and Nebraska.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon

On the cusp: None

Work to do: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, USC

Would be out: Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Washington

Out: Maryland, Michigan State, Penn State, Rutgers, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin

ACC

Spotlight: Virginia. Following Miami’s loss to Louisville, the two teams with the highest chance to reach the ACC championship game are now Georgia Tech (62.3%) and Virginia (39.4%). The Cavaliers’ 30-27 overtime win at Louisville looks even better after the Cardinals knocked off Miami. The Sept. 6 loss at NC State will be a sticking point in the committee meeting room if the Cavaliers don’t win the ACC, though, or finish as a two-loss runner-up. Virginia isn’t likely to play a ranked CFP opponent in the second half of the season, but that also means running the table is a realistic scenario. According to ESPN Analytics, the only remaining game Virginia isn’t favored to win is Nov. 15 at Duke.

Enigma: Louisville. Any team that has a chance to win its conference has a chance to make the 12-team CFP, and Louisville has a 19.5% chance to reach the ACC title game and a 16% chance to win out. The Cardinals could be a CFP top 25 team if they continue to play like they did in their win at Miami. Their lone loss was in overtime to Virginia, and they now have a statement win against a CFP contender in Miami. Their problem is the rest of their résumé, but a nonconference win against James Madison is respectable, considering the Dukes are 6-1 in the Sun Belt with an outside chance at the playoff. The win against Pitt is decent, as the Panthers are over .500, but Louisville needs to look the part down the stretch, as only Cal and SMU are over .500 and nobody is ranked. The only game left on the Cardinals’ schedule they’re not favored to win is Nov. 22 at SMU, according to ESPN Analytics.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Miami, Georgia Tech

On the cusp: Virginia

Work to do: Louisville

Would be out: Cal, Duke, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Wake Forest

Out: Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Syracuse, Virginia Tech

Big 12

Spotlight: Texas Tech. The close loss at Arizona State knocked the Red Raiders out of the top 12 projection and onto the bubble. If Texas Tech wins the Big 12 but finishes outside the selection committee’s top 12, it would still lock up a spot in the playoff as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. The Red Raiders are still on track to do that and have the best chance (61%) of any team in the Big 12 to reach the conference championship, followed by undefeated BYU (59.1%). Those teams play each other on Nov. 8, and Texas Tech will have home-field advantage. The two can face each other again in the Big 12 title game. Where it gets tricky is if Texas Tech finishes as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up. Some of it would depend on how the Red Raiders lost in the title game and how ASU fares down the stretch. Texas Tech has the seventh-best chance in the country to win out (23.2%), according to ESPN Analytics.

Enigma: Cincinnati. The Bearcats are undefeated in Big 12 play and 6-1 overall, with their lone loss in the season opener to Nebraska. The question is if they can sustain their success against the No. 26 most difficult remaining schedule in the second half of the season. They have the third-best chance to reach the conference championship behind Texas Tech and BYU — two teams that still have to play each other. Cincy doesn’t play the Red Raiders, but it will face BYU on Nov. 22 at home. November road trips to Utah and TCU also won’t be easy, as ESPN Analytics gives Cincinnati a less than 50% chance to win each of those games.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: BYU

On the cusp: Texas Tech

Work to do: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Houston

Would be out: Arizona, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, UCF, Utah

Out: Colorado, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia

Independent

On the cusp: Notre Dame. With the win against USC, the Irish climbed to No. 12 in this week’s CFP projection — quite a turnaround from the 0-2 start. But they would still be out if the playoff were today because the fifth highest-ranked conference champion, which this week is again projected to be South Florida, is outside of the committee’s top 12. That means the No. 12-ranked team gets excluded to include the Bulls. Notre Dame is in must-win mode for the rest of the season but still has the best chance of any team in the country (69.2%) to win out. If undefeated Navy can keep winning, the Irish might have another ranked opponent on their schedule to add to the USC win.

Group of 5

Spotlight: South Florida. No Group of 5 team has a better chance to reach the playoff right now than the Bulls (45.9%), according to ESPN Analytics — well above the second-best teams, North Texas (14.7%) and Tulane (14%). The American has separated itself from the other Group of 5 conferences because of the winning records, but also because of the strong nonconference opponents. South Florida’s wins against Boise State and Florida give it a significant boost over other contenders, and the lone loss — while lopsided — was on the road against a Miami team that still looks like a playoff contender. South Florida’s 63-36 drubbing of North Texas on the road was also significant. The American’s best teams, though, still have to play each other, and South Florida will travel to Memphis, Navy and UAB, which just beat Memphis.

Enigma: Tulane. Like South Florida, Tulane also played a respectable nonconference lineup that includes wins against Northwestern and Duke — both Power 4 teams that are above .500. The Green Wave’s only loss was a 45-10 drubbing at Ole Miss, but the Rebels are one of the top playoff contenders. Tulane and South Florida don’t play during the regular season, but they could face each other in the conference championship game. Tulane has the third-best chance to reach it (14%), just a hair behind North Texas (14.7%). The toughest game left on the Green Wave’s schedule is Nov. 7 at Memphis. ESPN Analytics gives Memphis a 66.2% chance to win.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: South Florida

Work to do: Boise State, James Madison, Memphis, Navy, North Texas, Tulane, UNLV

Bracket

Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas A&M

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 BYU (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 10 Georgia Tech at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 BYU/No. 6 Miami winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 Georgia Tech/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Oklahoma/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State

BOSTON — On the day of the 2025 NHL trade deadline, one of the most transformative days for the Boston Bruins in recent memory, Charlie McAvoy was stuck on his couch.

The Boston defenseman was still recovering from an injury he sustained at the 4 Nations Face-Off that landed him in the hospital. The Bruins were in Tampa on a two-game trip.

McAvoy and his wife watched the minutes tick down to the 3 p.m. ET deadline and breathed a sigh of relief. Despite rumors his team might tear it all down, the damage wasn’t as bad as they had feared.

“And then things started coming in after the deadline, 3:10, 3:15,” McAvoy recalls. “And it’s just tough. It’s the nature of hockey. It’s the business of the game. But there’s human beings behind it all, great friends, great friends of my wife’s. And it’s sad. It’s never easy seeing your friends move on and go to different places.”

The Bruins were one of the busiest teams on March 7, trading five veteran players. The deepest dagger: saying goodbye to captain Brad Marchand. It wasn’t just that the Bruins parted with a player they drafted in the third round nearly 20 years ago, a feisty winger who helped them win a Stanley Cup in 2011 and a leader who matured under their watch and continued to establish the team culture. The destination was equally stunning: Florida. The Panthers shocked the historically dominant Bruins in 2023 by knocking them out in the first round of the playoffs, then won their first Stanley Cup the following season. They were the team with which Marchand had helped brew a new rivalry. And the team that catapulted above Boston atop the hockey world.

In the seven months since the trade, Marchand helped the Panthers win another Stanley Cup, scoring six goals (and two game winners) in the Final against Edmonton. Marchand continued to taunt opponents, became beloved in the Panthers’ locker room, and seemed to be having more fun than ever embracing Florida’s culture.

“Brad is an honest man, and that’s why he fits in our group,” Florida coach Paul Maurice said in June. “He loves the game, loves the people around him, is very open, very gregarious, so just fits right in. He’s completely accepted.”

Marchand re-signed in Florida this summer on a six-year, $31.5 million deal — which one rival front office executive called “sticker shock for a 37-year-old.” Meanwhile, the Bruins embraced a hard reset, recalibrating short-term expectations while injecting the roster with younger players.

On Tuesday, Marchand will return to TD Garden ice for the first time as an opponent of the Bruins (7:30 ET, ESPN).

“I’m excited for this one. I mean, it’ll be fun to compete against guys I played with for a long time and be on the other side of it,” Marchand said Monday. “I’m sure it will be a pretty intense game. It will be fun to play in front of the Bruins fans again.”

Everyone is bracing for emotion.

“I’m sure that we’ll have a very neat tribute for him and all the blood, sweat, and tears that he gave for the Bruins — one of the best Bruins to ever play,” McAvoy said. “I think he’ll get an amazing ovation from the crowd. And then he’ll probably get booed right after.”

“I’m sure it’s going to be tough for some people,” Marchand said. “They won’t be able to cheer because they don’t like the Panthers very much. Maybe they’ll like me enough to give a little ‘Yay’ or something.”

IT WAS ALWAYS Marchand’s intention to be a life-long Bruin. It was the Bruins’ design to contend for a Stanley Cup last season. It all derailed with a disastrous start, which cost coach Jim Montgomery his job 20 games into the season.

“Last year was a seismic shift in terms of how we’ve been,” Bruins GM Don Sweeney told ESPN. “We had to take a cold, hard look in the mirror and understand where we were. We weren’t anywhere close to the level we had been the last six, seven years, and we had to make some really hard decisions professionally, and really hard decisions personally.”

Marchand, who was named Bruins captain in September 2023, was in the final year of an eight-year $49 million contract. While he and the Bruins were engaged in contract talks for several months, the negotiations stalled, even with the pressure point of the trade deadline looming. Marchand wanted security and to be paid his value. The Bruins had other parameters.

“I was never going to take a one or two-year deal. Not even a three-year deal. That just wasn’t in the cards,” Marchand told reporters ahead of this season. “I want to play as long as I can. That’s the main reason why it didn’t work out in Boston. I want to play until I get kicked out of the league.”

Marchand was injured at the time of the deadline; it was looking like a timeframe of four to six weeks. Sweeney said his management group determined that because of the team’s place in the standings, the deadline would mark a “directional shift,” with a focus on adding to the team’s depleted prospect pool. Veterans Charlie Coyle, Brandon Carlo, Trent Frederic and Justin Brazeau were also traded as the Bruins acquired six draft picks (including two first-round picks and two second-round picks), two prospects (notably 21-year-old center Fraser Minten, who is already contributing) and several under-30 roster players, including Casey Mittelstadt, Marat Khusnutdinov and Henri Jokiharju.

The most difficult file was Marchand. According to sources, the Bruins had a deal in place with the Los Angeles Kings but honored Marchand’s desire to stay in the East for family reasons. Florida, unbeknownst to the public, was his top destination. He believed he might have only one more opportunity to win a Stanley Cup, and the Panthers were loading up for their back-to-back bid.

Even after that trade, the Bruins never saw the door as fully closed with Marchand. But they never got the opportunity to formally discuss a contract again, as he re-signed with the Panthers before reaching free agency on July 1.

“We certainly had discussions about it, where he would fit in long term,” Sweeney said. “Upon the opportunity to talk to Brad after the trade, he focused on the fact that he was going to get a long-term deal. That wasn’t going to change between what he accomplished of winning a Stanley Cup and if he were able to get to July 1. We didn’t get the opportunity to cross that bridge [because he re-signed with the Panthers], but we certainly would’ve entertained having Brad back if he had decided that, within the parameters that we could do.”

That closed the chapter on Marchand’s tenure with the Bruins, one that included 976 points over 1,090 games, and endless memories.

“Ultimately what he always wants is to be in the playoffs and to win, and that’s what he was able to accomplish last year,” Sweeney said. “So we’re proud of him for that, but unfortunately it wasn’t with us.”

MARCHAND HAS MAINTAINED his deep ties to Boston. He says his favorite part of the city is the fans, unequivocally.

“The city is incredible, but the fans make it awesome. They’re just very unique,” Marchand said. “It’s as simple as, every time I go get a coffee — I have the same routine, same coffee shop every day — there was a message on my cup, if I had a good game or bad game the night before. It would be like, ‘Tough one for you last night.’ All the way down, they bleed black and gold. It’s part of why there’s so much pressure on the team to have success and why they focus on it so much. You can’t slip. You don’t have the ability to slip in this city, or you’re going to hear about it. We wanted to produce and be good for the fans and live up to that reputation, so it makes it special to play here.”

The Panthers arrived in town early on the final leg of a five-game trip. On Sunday night, Marchand went to dinner with a group that included several former teammates: Patrice Bergeron, Zdeno Chara, Tuukka Rask and Adam McQuaid. On who fronted the bill, Marchand quipped: “They bullied me. I did.”

Marchand’s more recent teammates, such as McAvoy, were dialed in to his playoff run with the Panthers. McAvoy is superstitious, so because he didn’t text Marchand early in the playoffs, he held off reaching out until the series was over.

“We were able to connect right away after they won, and I told him it was just really inspiring watching him play,” McAvoy said. “He’s just a big-time player. It’s so fun to see a guy who has been with you, and to see the fire he still has. It allowed me to sort of reset in my head a little bit, and find that fire again.”

The Bruins have a new coach in Marco Sturm and, according to Sweeney, have put a heavy emphasis on being harder to play against. Everyone must earn their ice time. The culture is also continuing to evolve. The team has not yet named a captain, after the role had been filled consecutively by Chara, Bergeron and then Marchand.

McAvoy said he and David Pastrnak are learning how to take on a bigger role, while still staying authentic to themselves and the tradition before them. It’s one of the ways Marchand’s legacy still lives with the team.

“For a long time in Boston, you had Bergy, Z, and Marshy, and they were this perfect triangle of guys that leaned on each other, that each had different personalities,” McAvoy said. “You can talk forever about how amazing they are as individuals, how big their hearts are, how much they care for everyone around them. That’s certainly one of the pillars: caring for your teammate, and going above and beyond for them. Those three guys put that on display every day, making it fun to come to the rink. That was something they fostered there — that made it great to be a Bruin.”

CALGARY, Alberta — Jonathan Toews is on the board with his hometown Winnipeg Jets.

Toews scored a tying power-play goal in the third period of Monday night’s 2-1 win at Calgary. It was the first goal for the three-time Stanley Cup champion since April 13, 2023 — a span of 2 years, 189 days.

Toews is making a comeback with Winnipeg after missing the past two seasons because of the effects of chronic immune response syndrome and COVID-19.

He began his career with Chicago, captaining the Blackhawks to titles in 2010, 2013 and 2015. He won the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP during the franchise’s first championship run since 1961.

Winnipeg trailed Calgary 1-0 before Toews redirected Neal Pionk‘s shot past Flames goaltender Dustin Wolf at 2:41. It was career goal No. 373 for the No. 3 overall pick in the 2006 NHL draft.

Toews became the third Winnipeg native to score for the Jets since the 2011-12 season, joining Eric Fehr and Cody Eakin.

At 37 years, 174 days, he also became the fifth-oldest player at the time of his first goal with the Jets/Thrashers franchise.