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Monitors display Coinbase signage during the company’s initial public offering at the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York on April 14, 2021.

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

For crypto bulls, the most lucrative bets in 2023 were in the stock market.

While bitcoin rallied over 150% for the year, shares of Coinbase, MicroStrategy and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which are all tied closely to the digital currency, did substantially better, rising more than 300% in value. Bitcoin miner Marathon Digital soared 688%.

Not only have those stocks outperformed the primary cryptocurrency, but they’ve been among the biggest gainers across the whole U.S. market. In the universe of publicly traded U.S. businesses with a market value of at least $5 billion, the four bitcoin-tied stocks were among the eight best performers, according to FactSet.

The crypto boom represents a major bounce back from 2022, when coin prices plummeted, taking related equities down with them. A year highlighted by hedge fund collapses, crypto lender failures and crippling losses at miners was punctuated in November 2022, when crypto exchange FTX spiraled into bankruptcy, leading to the arrest of founder Sam Bankman-Fried on fraud charges.

Last month, a jury in New York convicted Bankman-Fried on seven criminal counts, setting the 31-year-old former billionaire up for a possible life behind bars. Weeks later, Changpeng Zhao, founder of crypto exchange Binance, pleaded guilty and stepped down as the company’s CEO as part of a $4.3 billion settlement with the Department of Justice. He faces a possible prison sentence of 18 months or longer.

By the time of Bankman-Fried’s conviction and Zhao’s plea deal, the damage to the broader crypto market had mostly been realized, and investors were looking to the future. One of the biggest drivers for bitcoin this year was an easing of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, which created a more attractive case for riskier assets.

Prices were also bolstered by the upcoming bitcoin halving, which takes place every four years and is scheduled for May 2024. In the halving process, the reward for mining is cut in half, capping the supply of bitcoin.

Additional buying was sparked by the potential for a flurry of bitcoin exchange-traded funds popping up in the new year.

“It’s just more fuel for a fire,” said Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz, in an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” last week. “Crypto stocks are trading almost like a mania.”

Crypto stocks are trading 'almost like a mania', says Galaxy Digital's Michael Novogratz

Bitcoin has climbed to $42,683 as of Tuesday, a massive win for investors who got in at the beginning of the year, when the price was around $16,500. But the leading cryptocurrency is still 38% below its record high of nearly $69,000 in November 2021.

Among companies closely tied to bitcoin and valued at $5 billion or more, the best-performing stock this year was Marathon, a mining firm that just eclipsed that market cap level last week thanks to a 125% surge in December as of Tuesday’s close. On Wednesday, the shares surged another 15%.

Last year at this time, Marathon was hanging on by a thread. The company was in the midst of a quarter that ended with a loss of almost $400 million on sales of just $28.4 million because of tumbling bitcoin prices, a power outage at its facility in Montana and Marathon’s financial exposure to bankrupt miner Compute North.

“It was pretty dire times,” Marathon CEO Fred Thiel said in an interview last week.

Bitcoin mining is an expensive operation because of the high energy costs required to operate the supercomputers. A drop in bitcoin prices means a sharp reduction in the money producers make selling the coins they mine, even as their energy bills get little relief.

Thiel said the company was able to sell equity and was in the fortunate position of not having debt other than a convertible note.

The picture has brightened dramatically in 2023. Last month, Marathon reported third-quarter net income of $64.1 million, as revenue jumped from a year earlier to $97.8 million. Now the company is in expansion mode, and last week announced the purchase of its first two fully owned bitcoin mining sites — one in Texas and one in Nebraska — for $178.6 million.

The acquisitions increased the size of Marathon’s mining portfolio by 56% to 910 megawatts of capacity.

“By vertically integrating, we take the profit margin for the third party out and we can run the site the way we want to run it,” Thiel said. Much of the technology Marathon has been developing, he said, is focused on increased efficiency, “which in an up market people will ignore” because high prices lead to high margins.

Thiel is trying to make sure the company is on sound financial footing the next time there’s a downturn in bitcoin prices. That means bringing down production costs and creating more ways to sell energy back to the grid. He’s also optimistic that through energy harvesting — taking methane gas and converting it to sellable electricity — Marathon will eventually have much more diverse revenue streams.

One of the company’s goals by 2028, Thiel said, is to bring bitcoin mining down to 50% of revenue.

Brian Armstrong, co-founder and chief executive officer of Coinbase Inc., speaks during the Singapore Fintech Festival, in Singapore, Nov. 4, 2022.

Bryan van der Beek | Bloomberg | Getty Images

‘Multiple sources of revenue’

Outside of the mining universe, the best-performing crypto stock in the U.S. this year is Coinbase, which has soared 386% as of Tuesday’s close. It rose 7.7% on Wednesday.

As the only major publicly traded crypto exchange in the U.S., Coinbase has long been a popular way to buy and trade cryptocurrencies in its home market. But with the struggles at Binance, the largest exchange in the world, Coinbase picked up market share during non-U.S. trading hours, according to a report from research firm Kaiko in late November.

Shortly after Zhao’s plea deal, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong told CNBC that the news amounted to “a vindication of the long-term strategy that we’ve taken to focus on compliance, make sure we were building a trusted company.”

Coinbase’s revenue and stock price are still way below where they were during the heyday of crypto trading in 2021, when retail investors were jumping into the market to buy all sorts of digital currencies, including gimmicks like Dogecoin. But the business has stabilized following drastic cost-cutting measures starting last year and extending into early 2023.

Coinbase also offers investors a bit of diversity outside of bitcoin. In the third quarter, bitcoin accounted for only 37% of transaction revenue at Coinbase, while ethereum made up 18% and other crypto assets amounted to 46%. Additionally, the combination of interest income and stablecoin revenue (earned through USDC reserves) more than doubled in the latest quarter to $212 million due to higher interest rates.

Transaction revenue now accounts for less than half of Coinbase’s net revenue, down from 96% at the time of the company’s public market debut in 2021.

“We made a big effort around the time we went public to start diversifying our revenue,” Armstrong said in an interview last week with CNBC. “Now we have multiple sources of revenue, some of them in a high interest rate environment go up, some of them in a low interest environment go up. That means revenue has started to become more predictable.”

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The other top stock performers in crypto are much more closely tied to bitcoin.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is up 330% this year. GBTC hit the over-the-counter market in 2015 as the first publicly traded bitcoin fund in the U.S., offering investors a way to passively own bitcoin. The challenge for investors in the past has been that GBTC is a closed-end fund, which makes it less liquid than an ETF.

Late last year, in the darkest days of crypto, GBTC’s discount to its net asset value approached 50%, meaning its market cap was about half the value of the bitcoin it owned. As of Dec. 22, that discount had narrowed to 5.6%, the lowest since early 2021. The fund currently owns about $26.6 billion worth of bitcoin and has a market cap of $24.7 billion.

In addition to the rally in bitcoin this year, GBTC is getting a boost from the prospects that it will get regulatory clearance next year to convert to an ETF, a move that would allow it to trade through a traditional stock exchange and gain liquidity measures that would bring its market value more in alignment with its NAV.

Grayscale said in a regulatory filing Tuesday that Barry Silbert, CEO of parent company Digital Currency Group, is resigning as chairman of Grayscale Investments and exiting the board, effective Jan. 1. No reason for his departure was provided. He’s being succeeded as chairman by Mark Shifke, DCG’s finance chief.

Big investors join the party

The Securities and Exchange Commission met with Grayscale in November and has been formally engaging with other asset managers about the issuance of bitcoin ETFs.

Those meetings began after an appeals court sided in August with Grayscale in a lawsuit against the regulator, which had opposed the firm’s efforts on concern that investors would lack sufficient protections. Other large money managers, such as BlackRock, Fidelity Investments and Invesco, have taken steps to create their own funds.

Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” last week that the “hopeful approval” for ETFs will bring in new participants, most notably investment advisors who oversee roughly $30 trillion in the U.S. but have restrictions on what they can buy.

“When my team had our court victory, I think that certainly unlocked a lot of optimism amongst investors about GBTC and the prospects for it to uplist as a spot bitcoin ETF,” Sonnenshein said. “As we turn the corner into the new year, I know there’s a lot of focus on that from the investment community.”

There's a lot of market optimism for Bitcoin into next year, says Grayscale CEO

In the absence of an accessible ETF to date, many investors have flocked to MicroStrategy as a way to buy bitcoin.

Founded in 1989 as a business intelligence software company, MicroStrategy now gets the vast majority of its value from the 174,530 bitcoins it owned as of the end of November, currently worth $7.4 billion. The stock’s 327% jump this year has lifted the company’s market cap to $8.3 billion. Its software and services business generated about $130 million in sales in the third quarter.

The company said in a regulatory filing on Wednesday that it purchased an addition 14,620 bitcoins from Nov. 30 to Dec. 26 for $615.7 million, bringing its total to 189,150 bitcoins. The stock jumped 11%.

MicroStrategy announced its plan to invest in bitcoin in mid-2020, disclosing in an earnings call that it would commit $250 million over the next 12 months to “one or more alternative assets,” which could include digital currencies like bitcoin. At the time, the company’s market cap was about $1.1 billion.

In the third quarter of 2020, MicroStrategy acquired 38,250 bitcoins for a total of $425 million.

Phong Le, who was elevated to CEO from CFO last year, said on the October 2020 earnings call that MicroStrategy’s investment in bitcoin allowed it to “tap into the passion of the broader crypto market,” adding that, “We’ve seen a notable and unexpected benefit from our investment in bitcoin in elevating the profile of the company.”

Since then, MicroStrategy has come to be known as a bitcoin proxy. Co-founder and ex-CEO Michael Saylor is one of the cryptocurrency’s principal evangelists, even co-authoring a book on the subject last year called “What is Money?”

“The one thing that we can count on is that bitcoin goes forward in the year 2024 and a strategy built around bitcoin is generally a pretty safe one for institutions,” Saylor said in an interview Dec. 18 on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.” “Education makes a difference. Institutional adoption makes a difference. The spot ETF news is good news. Loosening of monetary policy is good news.”

Bitcoin will continue to move forward in 2024, says MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor

Saylor is also optimistic about a mark-to-market accounting rule set to go into effect in 2025 (though companies can choose to adopt it earlier) that changes how companies record crypto assets. Instead of being classified as intangible assets that have to be marked down if the value drops below the purchase price, crypto will be in a separate category and companies will mark it up or down based on where it’s trading.

Saylor says the new measure provides an incentive for companies with billions of dollars of cash sitting on their balance sheets to put some of that money to work in bitcoin.

As good of a year as it’s been for the bitcoin bulls, it’s been equally painful for the bears.

Short sellers, or investors who bet on a drop in stock prices, have lost a combined $6.3 billion on their positions against Coinbase, MicroStrategy and Marathon, according to data supplied by S3 Partners last week. In the first three quarters of the year, crypto shorts spent $2.19 billion buying the stocks to reduce their exposure, the firm said.

There’s still a hefty dose of skepticism. More than 23% of Marathon’s shares available for trading are sold short, while MicroStrategy’s short interest-to-float ratio is about 21% and Coinbase’s sits at 14%. The average among U.S. stocks is 5%, according to S3.

Dimon vs. the evangelists

But risk remains for the bitcoin believers.

While enthusiasts like Saylor are betting on the long-term appreciation of the asset as a hedge against inflation and as a store of value, new investors are jumping into a historically volatile market.

When bitcoin fell by more than 60% in 2022, Coinbase, GBTC and MicroStrategy each dropped by at least 74%. Marathon lost 90% of its value and some of its peers went out of business.

Even with a more stable environment in 2023, crypto still has high-profile detractors like JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who told the Senate Banking Committee earlier this month that, “The only true use case for it is criminals, drug traffickers … money laundering, tax avoidance.”

“If I was the government, I’d close it down,” he said.

But that prospect is looking less likely than ever as more institutional money flows into bitcoin as an investment vehicle. In mid-December, analysts at BTIG lifted their price target on MicroStrategy to $690 from $560, citing improving sentiment and the approaching bitcoin halving.

“Our expectation is that the approval of a spot BTC ETF would increase regulatory clarity around bitcoin, which should give large institutional investors, such as insurance companies, greater comfort investing in bitcoin,” the analysts wrote.

Galaxy Digital’s Novogratz says that “broadly we’re still in bull market phase,” noting that there’s a constant and inherent scarcity of bitcoin supply. Novogratz expects bitcoin to eclipse its record high next year, and says that among respected investors, “I can give you 50 of them on the other side of the table from Jamie Dimon.”

In the near term, Novogratz cautions that with so much momentum coming from crypto traders, the tide could turn and cause a correction.

“I’m a little nervous because it feels so good,” he said.

— CNBC’s MacKenzie Sigalos contributed to this report

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X rival Bluesky gains 1.25 million users following U.S. election

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X rival Bluesky gains 1.25 million users following U.S. election

In this photo illustration, the Bluesky Social logo is displayed on a cell phone in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on September 4, 2024. 

Mauro Pimentel | AFP | Getty Images

Micro-blogging startup Bluesky has gained over 1.25 million new users in the past week, indicating some social media users are changing their habits following the U.S. presidential election. 

Bluesky’s influx of users shows that the app has been able to pitch itself as an alternative to X, formerly Twitter, which is owned by Elon Musk, as well as Meta’s Threads. The bulk of the new users are coming from the U.S., Canada and the United Kingdom, the company said Wednesday. 

“We’re excited to welcome everyone looking for a better social media experience,” Bluesky CEO Jay Graber told CNBC in a statement.

Despite the surge of users, Bluesky’s total base remains a fraction of its rivals’. The Seattle startup claims 15.2 million total users. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg in October said Threads had nearly 275 million monthly users. Musk in May claimed that X had 600 million monthly users, but market intelligence firm Sensor Tower pegged X’s monthly base at 318 million users in October.

Created in 2019 as a project inside Twitter, when Jack Dorsey was still CEO, Bluesky doesn’t show ads and has yet to develop a business model. It became an independent company in 2021. Dorsey said in May of this year that he’s no longer a member of Bluesky’s board.

“Journalists, politicians, and news junkies have also been talking up Bluesky as a better X alternative than Threads,” wrote Similarweb, the internet traffic and monitoring service, in a Tuesday blog.

Some users with new Bluesky accounts posted that they had moved to the service due to Musk and his support for President-elect Donald Trump. 

“It’s appalling that Elon Musk has transformed Twitter into a Trump propaganda machine, rife with disinformation and misinformation,” one user posted on Bluesky. 

This is Bluesky’s second notable surge in the last couple of months. 

Bluesky said it picked up 2 million new users in September after the Brazilian Supreme Court suspended X in the country for failing to comply with regional content moderation policies and not appointing a local representative.

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Cisco reports fourth straight quarter of declining revenue

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Cisco reports fourth straight quarter of declining revenue

Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins speaks at The Wall Street Journal’s Future of Everything Festival in New York on May 21, 2024.

Dia Dipasupil | Getty Images

Cisco reported a fourth straight quarter of declining revenue even as results topped analysts’ estimates. The stock slipped 2.5% in extended trading.

Here’s how the company did in comparison with LSEG consensus:

  • Earnings per share: 91 cents adjusted vs. 87 cents expected
  • Revenue: $13.84 billion vs. $13.77 billion expected

Cisco’s revenue dropped 6% in the quarter ended Oct. 26, from $14.7 billion a year earlier, according to a statement. Net income fell to $2.71 billion, or 68 cents per share, from $3.64 billion, or 89 cents per share, in the same quarter a year ago.

Networking revenue plunged 23% to $6.75 billion, slightly below the $6.8 billion consensus of analysts surveyed by StreetAccount.

Security revenue doubled to $2.02 billion, topping the StreetAccount consensus of $1.93 billion. Cisco’s revenue from collaboration was $1.09 billion, a bit below the $1.04 billion consensus estimate.

Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins said on the earnings call on Wednesday that orders from large-scale clients for artificial intelligence infrastructure exceeded $300 million in the quarter. Server makers such as Dell and HPE have also focused on sales of hardware that can help clients implement generative AI.

“We have earned more design wins and remain confident that we will exceed our target of $1 billion of AI orders this fiscal year from web-scale customers,” Robbins said.

Cisco has announced hardware containing Nvidia’s graphics processing units, which are widely used for training AI models, Robbins said.

“Over time, you’ll see us support other GPUs as the market demands,” he said. “But that partnership is still going fine. It’s still early. And I think 2025 is when we’ll start to see enterprise real deployment of some of these technologies.”

For now, enterprises are updating data center infrastructure to prepare for AI and the widespread deployment of AI applications, Robbins said.

U.S. government agencies have delayed deals with Cisco, rather than scrapping them altogether. The Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023, which became law in June of last year, has limited U.S. government spending, said Scott Herren, Cisco’s finance chief.

Herren said that with Republicans poised to control the White House and both houses of Congress, he expects “to get a budget in place relatively soon.”

During the quarter, Cisco acquired security startups DeepFactor and Robust Intelligence.

Cisco lifted its full-year guidance to $3.60 to $3.66 in adjusted earnings per share on $55.3 billion to $56.3 billion in revenue, up from a prior forecast of $3.52 to $3.58 in EPS and $55 billion to $56.2 billion in revenue. Guidance would indicate projected revenue growth of 3.3% at the middle of the range.

Analysts expected adjusted earnings for the year of $3.58 per share on $55.89 billion in revenue.

As of Wednesday’s close, Cisco’s stock was up 17% year to date, while the S&P 500 index is up around 26% over that stretch.

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Trump victory may provide TikTok a lifeline to remain in the U.S.

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Trump victory may provide TikTok a lifeline to remain in the U.S.

Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump, (C) greets attendees during a campaign stop to address Pennsylvanians who are concerned about the threat of Communist China to U.S. agriculture at the Smith Family Farm September 23, 2024 in Smithton, Pennsylvania. 

Win Mcnamee | Getty Images

After Donald Trump won the U.S. presidency last week, tech CEOs including Apple‘s Tim Cook, Meta‘s Mark Zuckerberg and Amazon‘s Jeff Bezos publicly praised the president-elect.

One name was conspicuously missing: TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew.

His absence was notable considering that of all the top tech companies, TikTok faces the most immediate and existential threat from the U.S. government. In April, President Joe Biden signed a law that requires China’s ByteDance to sell TikTok by Jan. 19. If ByteDance fails to comply, internet hosting companies and app store owners such as Apple and Google will be prohibited from supporting TikTok, effectively banning it in the U.S.

Trump’s return to the White House, though, may provide a lifeline for Chew and TikTok. 

Although both Republicans and Democrats supported the Biden TikTok ban in April, Trump voiced opposition to the ban during his candidacy. Trump acknowledged the national security and data privacy concerns with TikTok in a March interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” but he also said “there’s a lot of good and there’s a lot of bad” with the app.

Trump also leveraged TikTok’s shaky future in the U.S. as a reason for people to vote against Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris.

“We’re not doing anything with TikTok, but the other side is going to close it up, so if you like TikTok, go out and vote for Trump,” the president-elect said in a September post on his Truth Social service.

Since his election, Trump hasn’t publicly discussed his plans for TikTok, but Trump-Vance transition spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told CNBC that the president-elect “will deliver.”

“The American people re-elected President Trump by a resounding margin giving him a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail,” Leavitt said in a statement. 

Trump’s rhetoric on TikTok began to turn after the president-elect met in February with billionaire Jeff Yass, a Republican megadonor and a major investor in the Chinese-owned social media app.

Yass’s trading firm Susquehanna International Group owns a 15% stake in ByteDance while Yass maintains a 7% stake in the company, equating to about $21 billion, NBC and CNBC reported in March. That month it was also reported that Yass was a part owner of the business that merged with the parent company of Trump’s Truth Social.

TikTok’s CEO Shou Zi Chew testifies during the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on online child sexual exploitation, at the U.S. Capitol, in Washington, U.S., January 31, 2024. 

Nathan Howard | Reuters

If ByteDance doesn’t sell TikTok by the January deadline, Trump could potentially call on Congress to repeal the law or he can introduce a more “selective enforcement” of the law that would essentially allow TikTok to continue operating in the U.S. without facing penalties, said Sarah Kreps, a Cornell University professor of government. “Selective enforcement” would be akin to police officers not always enforcing every single instance of jaywalking, she said.

At TikTok, meanwhile, Chew has remained quiet since Trump’s victory, just as he had been in the lead-up to Election Day. 

The Chinese-owned company may be taking a neutral approach and a wait-and-see strategy for now, said Long Le, a China business expert and Santa Clara University associate teaching professor.

Le said it’s hard to foresee what Trump will do. 

“He’s also a contrarian; that’s what makes him unpredictable,” Le said. “He can say one thing, and the next year he’ll change his mind.”

TikTok didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee at the Dirksen Senate Office Building on January 31, 2024 in Washington, DC.

Alex Wong | Getty Images

‘Facebook has been very bad for our country’

When it comes to social media apps, Trump’s campaign comments suggest he’s more concerned with TikTok rival Meta. 

In his March interview with “Squawk Box,” Trump said Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram, posed a much bigger problem than TikTok. He also said a TikTok ban would only benefit Meta, which he labeled “an enemy of the people.”

“Facebook has been very bad for our country, especially when it comes to elections,” Trump said.

But Trump’s negative views on Meta may have changed after comments by CEO Mark Zuckerberg over the past few months, Cornell’s Kreps said. 

Zuckerberg described the photo of Trump raising his fist following a failed assassination attempt in July as “one of the most badass things I’ve ever seen in my life.” And after Trump’s win, Zuckerberg congratulated him, saying he was looking forward to working with the president-elect and his administration.

“My sense as an armchair psychologist of Trump is that he really likes people who sing his praises, and so his view on Zuckerberg and Meta, I would imagine, has changed,” Kreps said. “He might then just revert to his American economic nationalism here and say, ‘Let’s protect American industry and continue with the Chinese ban.'”

Meta didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Maintaining support of the TikTok ban could also win Trump political favor with lawmakers concerned about China’s global political and business influence, said Milton Mueller, a professor at Georgia Tech’s School of Public Policy.

“I don’t see him scoring big points politically by standing up for TikTok,” Mueller said, noting that few lawmakers, like Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., have opposed the ban.

Even if Trump does provide a lifeline for TikTok, it’s unclear how much damage that would do to his administration since many politicians are reluctant to publicly criticize him, Le said.

“They’re not going to challenge him because he just got so much power,” Le said. 

Since launching his TikTok account in June, Trump has amassed over 14 million followers. Given his social media savvy, Trump may not want to make a decision that results in him losing the public attention and influence he’s gained on TikTok, Le said.

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