The election year dawns – and small boats are a key battle line

Published

1 year ago

January 2, 2024

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Rishi Sunak himself declared that 2024 will be an election year – at the least discreet location possible: a Christmas party for political journalists.

This year that election will be looming in the background of every issue, whether politicians intend it to or not.

The Conservatives – who were last ahead in the polls more than two years ago – are trying to defy the odds to win a historic fifth term in office in the teeth of a cost-of-living squeeze.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is trying to convince voters that his party has changed after their worst result in more than 80 years.

The route to a Starmer victory would need to run through Scotland – where Labour are increasingly confident of winning seats from the SNP.

And the Liberal Democrats, decimated by their coalition with the Conservatives from 2010-2015, could play a key role in ousting them in their former heartlands.

Sunak has another challenge: the Reform party, whose support will be tested in by-elections looming in the coming weeks in heavily Brexit-supporting seats. They can chip away at the Conservative vote in key seats.

All of these dynamics help to explain why the government is celebrating its progress towards one of Sunak’s five priorities set out a year ago – to “stop the boats”.

He initially promised to “pass new laws to stop small boats, making sure that if you come to this country illegally, you are detained and swiftly removed”.

But it has been received as stopping crossings altogether, not least because Sunak keeps saying it and standing in front of the slogan which simply reads “stop the boats”.

Like “get Brexit done”, it’s an incredibly complex policy boiled down to three words – and it’s by no means clear ministers will come close to achieving it.

The number of migrants crossing the Channel is going in the right direction.

The 2023 total was 29,432, a drop of 36% on the previous year when it reached a record high of 45,477. But it’s still the second-highest number on record.

A new law was indeed passed – the Illegal Migration Act – but amid loud criticism from within the party, and the Rwanda policy was eventually ruled unlawful by the UK’s highest court.

Downing Street insists the fall in migrant crossings is down to government policies such as the returns agreement with Albania, which has seen the numbers of Albanians crossing the Channel plummet.

The Immigration Services Union, representing border staff, is planning for a rise in numbers this year. Many come from the world’s most unstable places – such as Afghanistan, Sudan and Syria.

How much will all of this count for in an election?

Small boats are a key dividing line with Labour, who oppose the Rwanda policy, which the prime minister is still determined to get off the ground in the coming months – via another law.

More voters tell pollsters that while they agree with Rwanda, most believe it is unworkable. Labour is the party currently more trusted on immigration.

Immigration polls well below the NHS and cost of living in terms of issues voters say are important for them, says Joe Twyman of Deltapoll.

“Immigration is by no means strong ground for the Conservatives to compete on,” he told Sky News.

“There are a lot of people out there who stopped voting Conservative because their mortgage rates went up and energy bills soared, but there are very few who will say ‘I’m back voting Conservative because of small boats’.”

The start of the year will see more announcements on cutting numbers of both irregular and legal migration – with new rules to prevent international students and health and care workers bringing family members with them to the UK.

But there are now just months to go to demonstrate success – or at least the road to it, and plenty of risks along the way.

Politics

Polymarket bets on Mark Carney win as Canadians head to the polls

Published

2 hours ago

April 28, 2025

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Polymarket bets on Mark Carney win as Canadians head to the polls

Crypto users betting on the outcome of the snap election to determine the next Prime Minister of Canada appear to be favoring a Liberal Party victory as residents head to cast their votes.

As of April 28, cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket gave current Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party candidate Mark Carney a 79% chance of defeating Conservative Party candidate Pierre Poilievre in the race for the country’s next PM. Data from the platform showed users had poured more than $75 million into bets surrounding the race, predicting a Poilievre or Carney victory.

Canada, Betting, Voting, Elections — *Polymarket chances favor the Liberal Party’s Mark Carney over the Conservative Party’s Pierre Poilievre to be the next Canadian Prime Minister. Source:* *Polymarket*

The odds suggested by the platform, as well as those from many polls, show a nearly complete reversal of fortunes between the two candidates after former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned in January. Trudeau and, by association, many in the Liberal Party, faced criticism over the handling of Canada’s housing crisis and questions about how he would face US President Donald Trump’s then-proposed tariffs.

Following Trudeau’s resignation, Trump stepped up rhetoric disparaging Canada, repeatedly referring to the country as the US’s “51st state” and Trudeau as its “governor.” The US President also imposed a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada in March. The policies seem to have led to increasing anti-Trump sentiment in Canada, with many residents booing the US national anthem at hockey games and making comparisons between the president and Poilievre.

This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.

Politics

Small boat crossings pass 10,000 at earliest point in year since records began, Sky News understands

Published

3 hours ago

April 28, 2025

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Small boat crossings pass 10,000 at earliest point in year since records began, Sky News understands

Small boat crossings have passed 10,000 in 2025 at the earliest point in a year since records began, Sky News understands.

Analysis of previous Home Office numbers and footage of people arriving today show the number of people crossing the Channel continuing to rise.

The issue has become a lodestone for political parties across the spectrum, with Rishi Sunak’s pledge to “Stop The Boats” falling well short.

Politics latest: PM warns of Tory-Reform pact ‘disaster’

Sir Keir Starmer promised to clear the backlog of asylum applications and “Smash The Gangs” of people smugglers upstream, but critics say he has failed to do this almost a year into his stint in Number Ten.

Reform’s Nigel Farage has made the issue key to his party’s pitch to voters.

The 10,000 figure is understood to have been passed on 28 April. Official figures only go until 27 April at the time of writing, with 9,885 people detected crossing the Channel by the UK government at this point

This compares to 7,167 by the same date in 2024, 5,745 in 2023, 5,352 in 2022, and 1,796 in 2021. Data only started to get collected in 2018, and for the first three years fewer than 1,000 people were observed crossing the Channel before 28 April.

Fine weather conditions are known to lead to an increase in people crossing the Channel, with some efforts earlier this year stymied by heavy winds.

Sir Keir scrapped the Conservative’s Rwanda deportation plan when entering office. In March, the prime minister said his government had “returned” 24,000 people who had no right to be in the UK.

Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, said: “Britain’s borders are being torn apart under Labour. This year is already the worst on record for small boat crossings after over 10,000 illegal immigrants arrived in Britain, but Labour just sit on their hands.

“Labour scrapped our deterrent before it even started, flung open the door to extremists and criminals, and handed the bill to hardworking taxpayers.

“Under new Conservative leadership, we are serious about tackling this crisis with deliverable reforms, but Labour continue to block these at every turn. Labour’s open-door chaos is a betrayal of the British people, and we will not let them get away with it.”

Mr Philp was part of previous Conservative governments, which also failed to reduce crossings.

Speaking to broadcasters, Mr Farage said: “If this carries on at this rate, by the end of this Labour government another quarter of a million people will have come into this country, many of whom frankly don’t fit our culture or cost us a fortune.”

He claimed that Reform is “the only party” saying that “unless you deport those that come illegally, they will just continue to come”.

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A Home Office spokesperson said: “We all want to end dangerous small boat crossings, which threaten lives and undermine our border security.

“The people-smuggling gangs do not care if the vulnerable people they exploit live or die, as long as they pay and we will stop at nothing to dismantle their business models and bring them to justice.

“That is why this government has put together a serious plan to take down these networks at every stage.

“Through international intelligence sharing under our Border Security Command, enhanced enforcement operations in Northern France and tougher legislation in the Border Security and Asylum Bill, we are strengthening international partnerships and boosting our ability to identify, disrupt, and dismantle criminal gangs whilst strengthening the security of our borders.”

Politics

Stacks Asia expands Bitcoin initiatives with Abu Dhabi partnership

Published

8 hours ago

April 28, 2025

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Stacks Asia expands Bitcoin initiatives with Abu Dhabi partnership

The Stacks Asia DLT Foundation has become the first Bitcoin-based organization to establish an official presence in the Middle East, aiming to promote institutional Bitcoin adoption through expanded educational initiatives.

Stacks Asia has partnered with the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) — one of the world’s fastest-growing financial centers — in a move that could boost the adoption of its Bitcoin (BTC) layer-2 (L2) solution in the Middle East and Asia.

The new partnership will play a “pivotal role” in shaping the future of Bitcoin’s “programmability and adoption” in these regions through educational programs and support for Bitcoin builders, according to an April 28 announcement shared with Cointelegraph.

Through the collaboration, Stacks and the ADGM aim to make it easier for institutions and investors to participate in the growing Bitcoin economy and help set “new standards for regulatory clarity and technical growth” for the rising global Bitcoin capital, according to Kyle Ellicott, executive director at Stacks Asia DLT Foundation.

“Stacks and ADGM are a powerful combination for accelerating Bitcoin adoption across the Middle East and Asia,” Ellicott told Cointelegraph, adding:

“ADGM has established itself as a world-class global financial hub at the heart of the United Arab Emirates, known as the ‘Capitol of Capital,’ where capital and innovation are brought together to shape the future financial landscape.”

“We’ll be working to enable the launch of educational programs, regional developer communities, and create opportunities for the real-world adoption of Bitcoin-powered applications,” he said.

Starting in May, the foundation will host a series of live and virtual events to “empower institutions” with the knowledge to integrate Bitcoin into their operations and learn about the “opportunity of productive Bitcoin capital,” Ellicott added.

Stacks Foundation pushing for a “progressive” regulatory environment worldwide

As the leading Bitcoin scalability solution, Stacks is also pushing for progressive global regulations that will cement Bitcoin’s role in the future of the financial landscape.

“We’re not just focused locally — our team is engaged in global conversations, advocating for frameworks that balance decentralization, security, innovation, and compliance surrounding the unlocking of Bitcoin capital,” Ellicott said.

A key part of the strategy involves knowledge sharing with local regulatory bodies to build understanding among government officials about Bitcoin’s characteristics and potential economic impact.

The foundation is also developing the Bitcoin Capital Activation Framework, described as a comprehensive policy blueprint to help regulators enable Bitcoin utility in their jurisdictions.

The Stacks Foundation will also launch the Bitcoin Policy Bridge in May, a working group uniting regulators from all key jurisdictions across the Middle East and Asia.

In February, ADGM signed a memorandum of understanding with the Solana Foundation to advance the development of distributed ledger technology.