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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 29: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on the last day of trading for the year on December 29, 2023 in New York City. The Dow was up slightly in morning trading in what has been a strong year for the stock market despite many economists predictions that the American economy would experience a recession. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty Images

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

What you need to know today

First and last trading day
Asia-Pacific markets kicked off 2024 mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite dipped 0.21% as official data showed the country’s manufacturing activity contracted in December. Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.5%. On Friday, the last trading day of the year, U.S. stocks disappointed investors who were hoping the S&P 500 would close the year on a record high. Still, it was a mighty good year for major indexes.

Bright spots in Asia
The outlook for Asian markets in 2024 is “relatively promising,” according to Pinebridge Investments, which said China and India — Asia’s two biggest economies — can’t be overlooked. Their view is supported by the International Monetary Fund, which projects a higher growth rate for Asia compared with the global rate. Here’s what to pay attention to for the region in 2024.

Bullish on bitcoin
Bitcoin rallied about 152% in 2023 despite high-profile criminal cases against cryptocurrency exchanges FTX and Binance. Bitcoin was last trading above $45,300 — and many industry executives think the cryptocurrency’s poised for a new bull run, thanks to an event known as “halving” and the potential approval of a bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the U.S.

BYD set to beat Tesla
BYD said it produced more than 3 million new EVs in 2023, putting the Chinese electric vehicle maker on track to surpass Tesla, in terms of production, for a second straight year. Tesla is due to release its full-year figures later on Tuesday. But according to a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing, Elon Musk’s EV company produced 1.35 million vehicles during the first three quarters of 2023.

[PRO] Alternative assets?
Interest in alternative assets — which include anything outside public market assets like stocks, bonds, commodities and cash — looks to be growing. It’s no surprise for some analysts, who think there’s “incredible value in private markets.” But others aren’t so sure. Read what the pros say on navigating the private market.

The bottom line

Instead of ending the year with a bang by surpassing its all-time high, the S&P 500 let out a whimper — to paraphrase the poet T.S. Eliot’s famous lines — and fell 0.28% on the last trading day of 2023.

Other major indexes lost momentum and retreated too. The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched down 0.05% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.56%.

As with any market move, it’s hard to attribute any definitive reason to it. I think, however, the S&P’s December rally was too reliant on the Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot. Without further positive news, and with the optimism priced in already, the S&P didn’t have a concrete reason to rise further.

Moreover, several analysts have pointed out that stocks are already priced above their fair valuation; that is, the price of a stock may be too high relative to its earnings per share.

“Arguably, the bull market is overbought, and there are too many bulls,” Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research wrote. Echoing that sentiment, Sarat Sethi, managing partner at DCLA, told CNBC he thinks “valuations are stretched.”

Still, let’s not throw away the baby with the bathwater. Friday’s disappointing session aside, 2023 has been a banner year for a huge swathe of the market. Here are, in my book, the biggest winners and losers of last year:

Winners

  • U.S. indexes: For 2023, the S&P jumped 24.23%, the Dow gained 13.8% and the Nasdaq rocketed 43.42%.
  • Bitcoin: Shrugging off the high-profile criminal cases against FTX and Binance, bitcoin surged around 152%.
  • Gold: The precious metal recorded its first annual gain since 2020 of 13%, as geopolitical risks and peak interest rates made gold shinier to investors.

Losers

Although part of financial journalism necessarily involves making predictions, a quick glance at that list shows how difficult it is to do so. Going into 2023, many thought a recession was in the cards. Instead, markets were dealt a winning hand. Here’s hoping 2024 thwarts all the negative predictions and delivers positive surprises too.

Happy 2024!

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What are these hidden vehicles in Rivian’s shareholder letter?

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What are these hidden vehicles in Rivian's shareholder letter?

On top of Rivian’s big VW partnership news today, we also got a look at what some of Rivian’s future plans might include – including some vehicles that we haven’t heard anything about before.

To recap the news, VW will invest up to $5 billion into Rivian and form a joint venture giving VW access to much of Rivian’s electrical and electronic architecture expertise. This will help Rivian with much-needed liquidity as it tries to get costs down and start generating cash flow from vehicle sales, and will help VW with the software issues it has been having in ramping up its EV projects.

To explain the news, Rivian posted a shareholder letter on its website, which is mostly filled with the basic financial details that we saw earlier in press releases.

But it also includes a graphic demonstrating the scalability of Rivian’s software across its platforms, meant to show how Rivian is unifying and simplifying its vehicle control software.

And that graphic has something very interesting – some hidden vehicles that we haven’t heard anything about yet. Have a look:

The obvious ones here are the already-released vehicles, Rivian’s RCV, R1T and R1S. The R1T and R1S are then repeated in column 2, in reference to the newly-released “Gen 2” architecture. This architecture led to a big upgrade in Rivian’s EVs for this model year, cutting lots of cost and complexity.

Then, in column 3, we have the R2 and R3 which Rivian unveiled in March. These will both be built on an architecture Rivian is calling “MSP.”

But despite that we’ve seen these next-gen R1 and MSP vehicles, both columns 2 and 3 have placeholder vehicles under covers.

While these are definitely just placeholder images and could be anything, they are notably a different size/shape than each other, suggesting that the unreleased gen 2 vehicle will be larger than the MSP vehicle.

The gen 2 vehicle could be an upgraded RCV, with more simplified electronics for cost-cutting, but the silhouette doesn’t look right. However, that might be an attempt by Rivian to obfuscate the car’s form, as a van silhouette would be quite obvious.

The unreleased gen 3 vehicle, then, does look lower and smaller than the gen 2. It could indeed be the R3X, but we’ve already seen that one, so it wouldn’t make a lot of sense to put it back under a cover. That said, Rivian was a little more secretive about showing us the interior of the R3X, as compared to the amount of info it gave us about the R2, so it could be the R3X… but wouldn’t it be more fun if it wasn’t?

For one thing, it could potentially be an R2T, a more affordable and smaller truck. While we knew the R2 would come in SUV format, many assumed that Rivian might mention an R2 truck alongside the R2 SUV, given that the company started with a truck to begin with. We didn’t see an R2T at the unveiling, but maybe they’re still working on that. The silhouette under the cover doesn’t look like a truck – but again, that would be a dead giveaway, so it makes sense they’d just use a default image.

Finally, we reach the last column: “affordable mass market.” This, too, is new, and includes three separate vehicle forms. While we’ve already learned not to trust the placeholder images, note that the images are all different, suggesting that there might be a large, medium and small-size vehicle on this eventual platform.

When R2 and R3 were unveiled, many figured that the R3 would likely be lower price than the R2, which Rivian confirmed – but didn’t go any further than that to state a price range. We assumed it would probably be somewhere around the price level of the Volvo EX30 or Chevy Equinox – somewhere in the mid-30s. We figured this was the next step towards mass-market, as it would be lower in price than the R2.

Another category of “affordable mass market” vehicles suggests either that the R3 will be higher in price than we had thought, leaving room in the low-to-mid 30s for a 4th-gen platform, or it suggests that Rivian is working on a ~$25k vehicle to be in the truly affordable mass market range, among the lowest price level offered for new vehicles by most major manufacturers (and in the future dreams of EV makers, like VW’s ~$22k 2027 offering or the fabled $25k Tesla Model 2).

We also don’t know what size those vehicles will be. They may all be “crossover-like” vehicles like those Rivian currently makes and has announced (the R3 sits somewhere between crossover and hot hatch), and the vehicles under the sheets (which, again, we can’t trust) do look to have “Rivian DNA” and may just be photos of the R1, R2 and R3. But perhaps the use of 3 different vehicle sizes suggests that Rivian might be working on a sedan, a compact, a sporty small car, or something along those lines. The company’s first-ever project was a sportscar, after all.

Or maybe it’s nothing at all. We reached out to Rivian about this and were told “it just demonstrates how our software can scale across platforms.”

But if that’s the case, why not use photos of VW vehicles, or why use vehicles that are clearly Rivian-styled rather than generic lumps? Why have a covered vehicle under the Gen 2 column, which presumably wouldn’t be the architecture used by any partnerships (as MSP would likely be ready by the time this VW partnership bears fruit)? So, we still think there’s something here.

A final note is that, while we did know the R2 was coming and saw several leaks in advance of its unveiling, everyone was blindsided by the R3. Similarly, when Rivian first unveiled its R1T in 2018, it was a complete surprise to everyone despite that the automaker had been founded in 2009 and had been working in “stealth mode” since then. So, Rivian does know how to keep secrets, apparently, and your guess is as good as ours as to what’s under those covers.

What do you think Rivian is hiding? Or is it nothing at all? Let us know in the comments.

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Cybertruck recalls, Tesla vs. Camry, Polestar upgrades, and electric flight gets real

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Cybertruck recalls, Tesla vs. Camry, Polestar upgrades, and electric flight gets real

We gave the Tesla Cybertruck a lot of heat yesterday, and today we’re back for more as every single example of the controversial electric pickup built so far has been recalled. Meanwhile a Model 3 is cheaper than a Camry now, Polestar 2 gets an upgrade, and electric flight takes off. All this and more on today’s energizing episode of Quick Charge!

I also want to draw attention to yesterday’s Quick Charge episode and say that I didn’t mean for the call for better signage to be a criticism of the signage at Wrigley Field. As many of you pointed out in the comments, the last thing we need as drivers is more signs and more distractions. That said, I stand by the assertion that big signs build confidence in the ICE-driving normies, but the best answer might be something more nuanced than a 60′ EV charging sign.

See? I do pay attention to the comments! (Totally doubling down on that whole “picking on the Cybertruck” thing, though.) Enjoy!

Prefer listening to your podcasts? Audio-only versions of Quick Charge are now available on Apple PodcastsSpotifyTuneIn, and our RSS feed for Overcast and other podcast players.

New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded Monday through Thursday (that’s the plan, anyway). We’ll be posting bonus audio content there as well, so be sure to follow and subscribe so you don’t miss a minute of Electrek’s high-voltage daily news!

Got news? Let us know!
Drop us a line at tips@electrek.co. You can also rate us on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, or recommend us in Overcast to help more people discover the show!

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VW will invest up to $5B into Rivian to form joint venture for next-gen EVs

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VW will invest up to B into Rivian to form joint venture for next-gen EVs

VW and Rivian have just announced that the two companies will form a joint venture, bringing Rivian’s software expertise to VW’s products and providing an initial $1 billion, and potentially up to an eventual $5 billion, in capital for Rivian to get through its push to deliver its upcoming R2 vehicle.

Rivian is currently working hard to get costs down in its quest for profitability. While the company has large cash reserves, it’s running through them at relatively rapid rate. The financials get a little bit better each quarter, but there is still a lot of work to be done.

Recently, Rivian announced that it would delay building its plant in Georgia in order to save over $2 billion in the short term, helping reduce pressure on its near-term financials.

Now, today, the company has had another pressure valve released, as VW and Rivian have announced they will form a joint venture to bring Rivian’s software to VW’s EVs, with VW offering an initial $1 billion in capital and potentially up to $5 billion by 2026.

“Our customers benefit from the targeted partnership with Rivian to create a leading technology architecture. Through our cooperation, we will bring the best solutions to our vehicles faster and at lower cost. We are also acting in the best interest of our strong brands, which will inspire with their iconic products. The partnership fits seamlessly with our existing software strategy, our products, and partnerships. We are strengthening our technology profile and our competitiveness.”

Oliver Blume, CEO of Volkswagen Group

The partnership is valuable for VW as well, as software has been its biggest issue recently. VW’s previous CEO, Herbert Diess, stepped down in 2022, and it’s thought that software issues were the main reason for his departure. In 2023, VW hired a former Rivian exec to help with software. It must have liked what it got, as the companies are deepening their relationship now.

The partnership begins with VW offering a $1 billion convertible note to Rivian, which will convert into an equity holding around the end of this year.

In addition, the two companies will establish a 50/50 joint venture around “next generation electrical/electronic architecture.” This will give VW immediate access to Rivian’s software architecture, which has been seen as one of the major strengths of the company.

“We’re very excited to be partnering with Volkswagen Group. Since the earliest days of Rivian, we have been focused on developing highly differentiated technology, and it’s exciting that one of the world’s largest and most respected automotive companies has recognized this. Not only is this partnership expected to bring our software and associated zonal architecture to an even broader market through Volkswagen Group’s global reach, but this partnership also is expected to help secure our capital needs for substantial growth. Rivian was created to help the world to transition away from fossil fuels through compelling products and services, and this partnership is beautifully aligned with that mission.”

RJ Scaringe, Founder and CEO of Rivian

After the establishment of this joint venture, VW says it will invest an additional $4 billion into Rivian, in $1 billion tranches in 2025 and 2026, contingent on Rivian meeting “certain milestones.”

After the announcement, RIVN stock is trading up more than 40% in after hours trading. It had already risen 8% during today’s trading session after an analyst upgrade. Rivian will hold an investor call at 3pm Pacific, 6pm eastern here.

Electrek’s Take

This is great news for Rivian, and great news for VW as well.

However, Rivian has had a number of past partnerships that didn’t turn out.

Rivian had previously partnered with Ford to build Ford/Lincoln EVs and also with Mercedes to build electric vans. Both of those fell through, with the Mercedes deal including a joint venture and the Ford deal including a big investment which Ford later trimmed.

Rivian has also partnered with Amazon to deliver 100,000 delivery vans. That partnership is going well with over 10,000 vehicles delivered, but the exclusivity portion of the contract recently ran out, and now Rivian is looking for more purchasers.

In this case, though, I can see a direct reason for Voltswagen to need Rivian’s help. While their software is a lot better now than it used to be, software has been the achilles heel of traditional auto companies in general, and VW specifically. And with VW’s yearly revenue ($335 billion in 2023), they can spare a little change to fix one of their major problems.

One other interesting note: VW recently spun off its classic Scout brand into a Rivian-like adventure EV. That was seen as an attempt to compete in a market that Rivian is currently the best offering in. We wonder if this partnership will include using Rivian’s expertise for the Scout? Stay tuned.

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