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Maybe my perspective is skewed, overconsumption of global events perhaps, but it feels to me unnervingly like we’re nearing a perfect storm right now. 

Out of a chaotic global pandemic, humanity seems to have lurched into deeply uncertain times.

We tend to struggle to focus on more than one crisis at a time, but we are facing them on multiple fronts.

While headlines have focused on the Middle East these past few months, war in Ukraine has been grinding on, our climate continues to warm at alarming rates, AI has been coming on leaps and bounds, and behind all that, democratic structures we have taken for granted are being tested to their limits.

That’s mentioning just a few of the discombobulating challenges swirling around.

The pessimists (or are they realists?) have tended to attach an ‘existential’ tag to the most dominant crisis of the moment. And in 2023 the tag has been attached to all the challenges above.

That’s not to say similar storms haven’t been experienced before. But memories are short, experience doesn’t tend to cross generations and history has a knack of repeating itself.

Politics has caused and shaped these crises. And in turn they are now shaping the political map ahead.

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Is Trump barred from 2024 run?

Buckle up

As we head into 2024, a year when 75% of the world’s democracies will hold elections, it feels to me that it’s a year to buckle up.

My focus over the year ahead will be the United States where surely the world’s most important election will take place. I hesitate to make predictions a year out – so much could yet change.

There may well be an upset of some sort – a bombshell court verdict, an illness or something else entirely – but for now it looks set to be Biden versus Trump, again.

The fact that most Americans yearn for a young, fresh face – whether they be Democratic or Republican – but are probably stuck with two elderly men each flawed in their own way, suggests that the mechanics of American democracy are broken.

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‘I’m not the only one who can defeat Trump’

More than that though – the polls suggest there is, across America, an anti-Trump majority – all Democrats plus a proportion of Republicans. Yet, the same flawed mechanics still give Trump a path to the White House.

As I said, it would be foolish to make any predictions about Donald Trump’s chances.

But we can say this: as he tries to win again, with a powerful base of support, the structures of American democracy and the constitution itself are being put under almighty, perhaps unprecedented, stress.

The nine justices of the nation’s Supreme Court will be asked to wrestle with and untangle huge constitutional challenges. Their position demands that they do so objectively, putting aside political affiliations, but in a deeply divided nation, that will be subjected to huge scrutiny.

A Trumpian return

We can also predict, with the benefit of hindsight, what a second Trump term might look like.

Were he to win in November, expect a mountain of ‘executive orders’ on hour one after the inauguration, undoing all of Biden’s work.

The great disrupter would surround himself with his very closest allies; people who will not stand in his way.

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What will decide the US election?

Remember, during his last presidency, when he rattled the world, a cast of characters did stand in his way.

The people he appointed – among them HR McMaster, Bill Barr, John Bolton and his own Vice-President Mike Pence – provided the internal checks and balances. They blocked his most radical ideas from becoming a reality.

This time, should he find himself back in the White House, he will be Trump the avenger; ‘a dictator for one day’, in his own words. His team will be rock-solid loyalists.

We know what he would be like because he spells it out at every rally.

Expect the return of the 2016-era policies but this time with the chances of completion much higher.

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Trump: ‘We’re close to being in WW3’

His focus would be America-first to the delight of many Americans who wonder why their country busies itself with faraway wars like Ukraine, but to the horror of globalists who still believe in the merits of American leadership.

The western alliance would be tested once again, but this time would Donald Trump follow through on threats like leaving the NATO alliance?

Those close to him suggest it may just be a threat to get other member nations to pay more again. They point out that it worked before, to an extent.

How would a resurrection of his Abraham Accords play out? Stewarding the reset between Israel and some gulf Arab nations was, he’d say, his landmark foreign policy achievement.

Could ‘the disrupter’, whose foreign policy lieutenants will not be establishment folk, cast a masterstroke even in wake of the Middle East crisis right now?

What about Ukraine? He says he would find peace in 24 hours. But would that require a capitulation to Putin, ceding him Ukrainian land in the east?

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Putin: Trump is being ‘persecuted’

Of course, all of this talk of ‘Trump 2.0’ is getting way ahead of many hugely uncertain months for America.

But the issues above – Ukraine, the Middle East, America’s place in the world – will be directly impacted as America chooses its direction this coming year.

Global events shaped by small-town America

In real-time, we will watch US geo-political policy decisions being framed by domestic American politics over the next 11 months.

Some issues will become paralysed with no incentive for momentum. On other issues, like perhaps Ukraine, there will be great incentive.

Team Biden will want to find a resolution for the Ukraine war. There is chatter already in Washington of a shift in White House policy – pressure on Ukraine to find a settlement with Russia.

Such is the power of America, still, that the direction of global events will be driven by issues tangible to American voters; issues much closer to home.

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Ukraine’s war ‘forgotten’ in US

The US economy is booming but it’s not trickling down to voters who feel that times are tough. Migration is seemingly out of control. Inner city drug and crime epidemics are agitating many voters. Culture wars are driving wedges deep into American society.

America’s shifting global influence, clear already, is wholly dependent on its domestic political twists. All politics is local.

Of one thing we can be sure: this US election is less of a fork in the road, more of a T-junction – two entirely different directions.

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Donald Trump says tariffs will be cut after ‘amazing’ meeting with Xi Jinping

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Donald Trump says tariffs will be cut after 'amazing' meeting with Xi Jinping

Donald Trump has described crucial trade talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping as “amazing” – and says he will visit Beijing in April.

The leaders of the world’s two biggest economies met in South Korea as they tried to defuse growing tensions – with both countries imposing aggressive tariffs on exports since the president’s second term began.

Catch up on Trump-Xi meeting

Aboard Air Force One, Mr Trump confirmed tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the US will be reduced, which could prove much-needed relief to consumers.

It was also agreed that Beijing will work “hard” to stop fentanyl flowing into the US.

Semiconductor chips were another issue raised during their 100-minute meeting, but the president admitted certain issues weren’t discussed.

“On a scale of one to 10, the meeting with Xi was 12,” he told reporters en route back to the US.

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‘Their handshake was almost a bit awkward’

Xi a ‘tough negotiator’, says Trump

The talks conclude a whirlwind visit across Asia – with Mr Trump saying he was “too busy” to see Kim Jong Un.

However, the president said he would be willing to fly back to see the North Korean leader, with a view to discussing denuclearisation.

Mr Trump had predicted negotiations with his Chinese counterpart would last for three or four hours – but their meeting ended in less than two.

The pair shook hands before the summit, with the US president quipping: “He’s a tough negotiator – and that’s not good!”

It marks the first face-to-face meeting between both men since 2019 – back in Mr Trump’s first term.

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Pic: AP
Image:
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Pic: AP

There were signs that Beijing had extended an olive branch to Washington ahead of the talks, with confirmation China will start buying US soybeans again.

American farmers have been feeling the pinch since China stopped making purchases earlier this year – not least because the country was their biggest overseas market.

Chinese stocks reached a 10-year high early on Thursday as investors digested their meeting, with the yuan rallying to a one-year high against the US dollar.

Analysis: A fascinating power play

Sky News Asia correspondent Helen-Ann Smith – who is in Busan where the talks took place – said it was fascinating to see the power play between both world leaders.

She said: “Trump moved quickly to dominate the space – leaning in, doing all the talking, even responding very briefly to a few thrown questions.

“That didn’t draw so much as an eyebrow raise from his counterpart, who was totally inscrutable. Xi does not like or respond well to unscripted moments, Trump lives for them.”

Read more from Sky News:
US cuts interest rates as inflation fears ease
Is Trump preparing for war with Venezuela?

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Will Trump really run for a third term?

On Truth Social, Mr Trump had described the summit as a gathering of the “G2” – a nod to America and China’s status as the world’s two biggest economies.

While en route to see President Xi, he also revealed that the US “Department of War” has now been ordered to start testing nuclear weapons for the first time since 1992.

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Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta results overshadowed by growing fears of AI bubble

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Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta results overshadowed by growing fears of AI bubble

Some of the world’s biggest tech giants reported quarterly earnings on Wednesday – with a mixed bag of results as fears grow that a bubble is forming in artificial intelligence.

Microsoft revealed that its spending on AI infrastructure hit almost $35bn (£26.5bn) in the three months to the end of September, a sharp rise compared with the year before.

Despite revenue jumping 18% and net income rising 12%, shares plunged by close to 4% in after-hours trading, with investors concerned about the mounting costs of sustaining the boom.

Microsoft is now a $4trn company thanks to its stake in ChatGPT maker OpenAI. AP file pic
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Microsoft is now a $4trn company thanks to its stake in ChatGPT maker OpenAI. AP file pic

Microsoft’s vice president of investor relations Jonathan Neilson said: “We continue to see demand which exceeds the capacity we have available.

“Our capital expenditure strategy remains unchanged in that we build against the demand signal we’re seeing.”

Big Tech is facing increasing pressure to show returns on the massive AI investments they’re making, against a backdrop of soaring valuations and limited evidence of productivity gains.

Microsoft became the world’s second most valuable company this week thanks to its 27% stake in OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT.

Its market capitalisation surged beyond $4trn (£3trn) at one point, but that psychologically significant threshold is now in doubt because of recent selloffs.

iStock file pic
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iStock file pic

Alphabet makes history

Last night’s results weren’t all doom and gloom – with shares in Google’s parent company surging by 6% in after-hours trading.

Alphabet has also set out aggressive spending ambitions, but placated investors thanks to an impressive set of results that surpassed analysts’ expectations.

Total revenue for the quarter stood at a staggering $102.35bn (£77bn), with the search giant’s advertising unit remaining robust despite growing competition.

But concerns linger that Alphabet’s dominance in search could be undermined by AI startups, with OpenAI recently unveiling a browser designed to rival Google Chrome.

Hargreaves Lansdown’s senior equity analyst Matt Britzman shrugged off this threat – and believes the company is “gearing up for long-term AI leadership”.

He said: “Alphabet just delivered its first-ever $100bn quarter, silencing the doubters with standout performances in both Search and Cloud.

“AI Overviews and AI Mode are clearly resonating with users, helping to ease fears that Google’s core search business is under threat from generative AI.

“With ChatGPT’s recent browser demo falling short of a game-changer, Google looks well-placed to put up a strong defence as gatekeeper to the internet.”

Read more from Sky News:
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates
Microsoft Azure outage hits thousands

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Browser could ‘change the way we use the internet’

Meta faces a mauling

Meta – the parent company of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp – saw its shares tumble by as much as 10% in after-hours trading.

Mark Zuckerberg’s tech empire anticipates “notably larger” capital expenses next year as it ramps up investments in AI and goes on a hiring spree for top talent.

Net income in the third quarter stood at $2.7bn (£2bn) and suffered an eye-watering $16bn (£12bn) hit because of Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill”.

Meta was late to the party on AI but has now doubled down on this still-nascent technology – setting an ambition to achieve superintelligence, a milestone where machines could theoretically outthink humans.

The social networking giant continues to benefit from its massive user base, and expects fourth-quarter revenues of up to $59bn (£44bn).

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US interest rates cut as concerns over Trump tariff inflation ease

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US interest rates cut as concerns over Trump tariff inflation ease

The US central bank has cut interest rates for the second time this year in a move consistently sought by President Trump.

Rates were brought down by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.75%-4%. Unlike the UK, the US interest rate is a range to guide lenders rather than a single percentage.

The Federal Reserve, known as the Fed, has opted for the cut despite the absence of economic announcements due to the government shutdown.

Latest employment figures were not published, as all non-essential functions of government are frozen over the inability of Republican and Democratic legislators to agree on a spending package.

The absence of these figures makes it trickier for the Fed to assess the state of the economy and meet its dual mandate to keep inflation steady and maintain maximum employment.

Data on price rises, however, showed inflation hit 3% in September, one percentage point above the Fed’s 2% target but lower than anticipated by economists.

The fact that concerns over spiralling inflation, fuelled by Mr Trump’s tariff-induced trade war, have not materialised, has facilitated the cut.

More on Interest Rates

Interest rates had been held amid warnings from Fed chair Jerome Powell that the US economy would grow less and goods would become more expensive due to hiked taxes on imports and the associated disruption in supply.

Mr Powell and the Fed in general have, as a result, been the subject of Mr Trump’s ire. The president sparked a crisis over the Fed’s independence when he moved to remove rate-setter Lisa Cook from her post at the Federal Reserve on alleged mortgage fraud grounds, which she denied.

Before the first interest rate drop of his term, in September, Mr Trump had threatened to remove Mr Powell, calling him a “stupid person” and saying he “should be ashamed”. The animosity comes despite Mr Trump appointing Mr Powell during his first presidential term.

What next?

The prospect of an interest rate cut was one of the factors boosting US and European stock markets in the days running up to the vote, with major stock indexes reaching record highs. Further increases are likely to be seen due to the decision.

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