US retail sales rose 3.1% this holiday season — sharp drop from 7.6% last year: report

Published

6 months ago

January 3, 2024

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Inflation-battered shoppers cut back on their holiday spending this year — opening their wallets mainly for “big deals,” according to industry experts and newly released figures.

US retail sales rose just 3.1% year-over-year between Nov. 1 and Dec. 24 — well short of analyst forecasts of 3.7% and less than half of the 7.6% spike recorded last year, according to Mastercard.

Amazon and Walmart ramped up promotions through November to entice bargain-hunting shoppers, but analysts said the discounts were not as deep as the prior year when retailers were saddled with excess stock after the pandemic.

Arun Sundaram, an analyst at CRFA Research, said many shoppers waited for Black Friday and Cyber Monday to make holiday purchases and finished the final sprint during Super Saturday — the last shopping day before Christmas.

“Consumers are still spending, but they’re still price conscious and want to stretch their budgets,” Sundaram said.

He said the weeks between Cyber Monday and Super Saturday were a “soft period” for spending, but shoppers used the final weekend before Christmas to look for “big deals.”

Online shopping accounted for a large chunk of this year’s holiday spending. According to the Mastercard report, online retail sales jumped by 6.3% year-over-year, while in-store sales rose just 2.2%.

Apparel sales jumped 2.4%, while in-person dining at restaurants soared by 7.8%, according to the report.

There were declines in sales of jewelry (2%) and electronics (0.4%).

Ultimately, it was about getting the most bang for your buck as consumers spent on a variety of goods and services, resurfacing spending trends from before the pandemic, Mastercard senior adviser Steve Sadove said.

Americans have been saddled with soaring prices in recent years though there have been signs inflation is beginning to cool.

The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation — the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (PCE) — rose less than expected in November.

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.1% compared to October.

That was lower than the 0.2% rise forecast by economists polled by Reuters. The year-over-year increase was 3.2%, lower than Octobers 3.4% gain.

The figures signal that the Fed is winning a nearly two-year battle against inflation and further increase the odds for lower interest rates in the new year.

The Federal Reserve has signaled that it intends to slash interest rates which are currently between 5.25% and 5.5% by as much as 75 basis points in 2024.

Projections from all 19 policymakers that showed near unanimity that borrowing costs would fall next year, many of them by a substantial margin following their latest policy meeting earlier this month, when borrowing costs held steady at their 22-year high.

Technology

Activist Starboard amasses Autodesk stake, weighs suit over delayed probe disclosure

Published

3 hours ago

June 17, 2024

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Activist Starboard amasses Autodesk stake, weighs suit over delayed probe disclosure

Jeffrey Smith, CEO and chief investment officer at Starboard Value LP.

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Starboard Value, the activist fund run by Jeff Smith, has taken a sizable stake in graphics-design firm Autodesk and has spoken with the company’s board in recent weeks over a number of serious concerns involving its disclosures around an internal investigation that led to the ouster of its chief financial officer.

Starboard’s stake is valued at roughly $500 million, according to people familiar with the matter. The activist, which has a long track record of investing in the technology sector, is particularly concerned about the timing of Autodesk’s disclosure of an internal investigation which revealed that executives misled investors around the company’s free cash flow metrics and operating margins, said the people, who requested anonymity to discuss confidential information freely.

The results of that probe led to the ouster of Autodesk’s then-CFO, Deborah Clifford, who was moved to a different executive role within Autodesk. The probe found that executives manipulated reporting tied to company’s contract billing structure, as Autodesk shifted back to upfront payments from annualized payments, to improve those metrics.

Autodesk first disclosed in April that it had begun an internal investigation into disclosure issues around those metrics, almost a month after it had first begun the investigation and had informed the Securities and Exchange Commission that it was probing its financial reports. Autodesk shares slid 20% over the next few weeks. The company’s market cap now sits slightly below $50 billion.

The delayed disclosure came a little more than a week after the deadline to nominate directors closed. The tight window and timing of the disclosure has raised significant concerns inside Starboard, the people said, that Autodesk’s board deliberately chose not to inform shareholders ahead of its annual meeting. Such a delay would potentially limit a shareholder’s ability to nominate its own candidates in a contested fight.

Starboard is weighing legal action in Delaware Chancery court to compel the reopening of Autodesk’s nominating window and the delay of Autodesk’s annual meeting, the people said. Autodesk’s shareholder meeting is currently scheduled for July 16.

The activist also believes that the company can drive actual margin improvement and improve investor communications to help bolster Autodesk’s stock, the people said.

Starboard has built stakes in other major technology companies, including Marc Benioff’s Salesforce and Splunk, which was sold to Cisco in 2023 for $28 billion.

News of Starboard’s stake and plans was reported earlier by the Wall Street Journal.

Autodesk has faced activist scrutiny before. In 2016, it settled with two activist investors at Sachem Head Capital Management and Eminence Capital to stave off a proxy contest.

Autodesk disclosed earlier this year that it is facing Justice Department and SEC probes. A representative for the company did not immediately return a request for comment.

Politics

SEC shoots down Ripple’s argument for a lower penalty

Published

3 hours ago

June 17, 2024

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SEC shoots down Ripple’s argument for a lower penalty

The SEC argued Ripple’s proposed lower civil penalty wouldn’t be enough, and there’s no comparison to its settlement with Terraform Labs.

US

Who will Donald Trump choose as his running mate?

Published

4 hours ago

June 17, 2024

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Who will Donald Trump choose as his running mate?

Donald Trump needs to choose a running mate for the 2024 election, and rumour has it he’s treating it like his old TV show: The Apprentice.

After a rather high-profile falling out with Mike Pence, the Republican nominee is deciding who could be his next vice president.

He is expected to reveal his choice at the Republican National Convention next month.

Let’s take a look at who the candidates are… and why each of one might hear those famous words: “You’re hired!”.

Doug Burgum

North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum hoped his small-town values would appeal to Republican voters enough to choose him as the presidential nominee. It didn’t work, but does it make him an appealing pick for VP?

The 67-year-old former software company executive has stressed his humble origins and previously said the next US president should be “someone who’s held jobs where you shower at the end of the day, not at the beginning”.

You’re hired: Burgum might be a safe pair of hands due to his experience in the worlds of politics and business, and his independent wealth (north of $100m) could be useful campaign funds.

You’re fired: North Dakota is as red as they come, so picking Burgum doesn’t come with the advantage of moving the dial in a swing state.

Marco Rubio

One of Florida’s two Republican senators, Marco Rubio is the son of Cuban immigrants who fled to Miami during the Batista dictatorship.

He ran for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016 but dropped out after losing the Florida primary to Trump, who relentlessly mocked him as “Little Marco”.

You’re hired: He brings strong foreign policy credentials, having served on the Senate Foreign Relations and Intelligence committees, and has a track record of attracting Latino voters.

You’re fired: Rubio has drawn criticism from the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement in the past for his immigration reform legislation which could pose a problem for him, even though he has since renounced his own deal. There’s also the wrinkle that the US constitution appears to possibly prohibit Electoral College electors from voting for inhabitants of their states for both president and vice president.

JD Vance

A US Marines veteran, JD Vance rose to become senator for Ohio after growing up in poverty.

He once described himself as a “never Trumper” but has since U-turned into being a reliable supporter of The Donald, even attending court in New York to support him at his hush money trial.

You’re hired: Vance aligns with Trump’s populist mindset and would likely be palatable to the MAGA base – perhaps even as a potential successor one day.

You’re fired: Ohio hasn’t voted Democrat since 2012 so appointing Vance likely doesn’t give Trump a second-in-command pick who could help get him over the line in a swing state.

Tim Scott

The only black Republican US senator, Tim Scott launched a bid to become the Republican presidential nominee but later withdrew from the race.

He has since been name-dropped by Trump himself as a possible vice presidential pick.

Scott has accused President Joe Biden and “the radical left” of “attacking every rung of the ladder that helped me climb”.

You’re hired: Scott is seen as a potential asset to Trump both on a policy front and in helping to cut Democratic margins, particularly with Black and Hispanic male voters.

You’re fired: Scott has been outspoken about his support for a federal abortion ban in the aftermath of the fall of Roe v Wade, whereas Trump has said the decision should be left to individual states.

Byron Donalds

In terms of having a similar name to Trump, Byron Donalds certainly has the edge over the other potential VP candidates.

Donalds, 45, is a congressman from Florida who has been a supporter of the former president since he entered Congress. He voted against the certification of electors from Arizona and Pennsylvania and is a 2020 election denier.

You’re hired: Donalds is a strong debater with experience on TV who could help the Trump campaign reach out to black voters.

You’re fired: Donalds has a limited national profile and could face a similar constitutional predicament as Marco Rubio as he also lives in Florida.

Elise Stefanik

A Republican congresswoman from New York, Elise Stefanik’s profile has been on the rise in the GOP (Grand Old Party) for years.

She shot to fame after her questioning of university presidents about antisemitism led to a huge outcry and fallout. In May, she addressed the Knesset in Israel and lambasted the Biden administration’s approach to its ally.

You’re hired: One of the few women thought to be on the VP shortlist, Stefanik could help shore up Trump’s support among female and suburban voters as well as bring youth to the ticket.

You’re fired: Stefanik hails from New York, a solidly blue state, so her inclusion on the ticket is unlikely to help bring more Electoral College votes to Trump’s side.

Ben Carson

Ben Carson, 72, served in Trump’s administration last time around as secretary for housing and urban development.

His time in government came after he briefly ran for the Republican nomination in 2016 before eventually pulling out of the race and endorsing Trump.

You’re hired: Carson hails from Michigan, a battleground state that is likely to be among the most crucial races to watch on election night.

You’re fired: Though well-known, if Trump is looking for an attack dog VP then Carson might not be the right candidate. He’s not considered to be the most outspoken or charismatic pick.

Less likely – Marjorie Taylor-Greene

A Republican congresswoman known for her embrace of conspiracy theories and fierce support for Trump, Marjorie Taylor-Greene nonetheless could make sense as a running mate for her political hero.

However, she is not believed to be on the list of candidates being vetted by the Trump campaign.

She was elected to Congress in 2020 and quickly became a powerful – and vocal – player in the Republican Party.

If he’s still in post after a hypothetical Trump/MTG win, it would be an awkward appointment for the UK foreign secretary, Lord Cameron, whom Taylor-Greene had choice words for…

You’re hired: Taylor-Greene is staunchly loyal to Trump and popular among the MAGA right-wing of the Republican Party.

You’re fired: She’s a divisive figure nationwide and has been criticised for her – sometimes bizarre – outbursts, including talk of “Jewish space lasers”.

Less likely – Kristi Noem

The current governor of South Dakota, Kristi Noem also has experience as a former member of Congress.

Her profile grew during the COVID-19 pandemic when she declined to close businesses and public spaces in her state to limit the spread of the virus. But it was in 2024 when she became even more well-known… after describing an incident of killing her dog in her own memoir.

As time has gone on she appears to be an increasingly unlikely choice for VP.

You’re hired: Noem brings experience as a state governor and fits in with Trump’s MAGA crowd.

You’re fired: She has been a supporter of the abortion restrictions in her state, where there is a near-total ban except when necessary to save the life of the mother. This hardline stance could make her a liability in a general election where public support for abortion access is high.

Already ruled out – Nikki Haley

Nikki Haley ran against Trump in the contest to secure the Republican nomination earlier this year. She weathered a string of defeats in various states before eventually suspending her campaign.

Nonetheless, she demonstrated that a significant proportion of Republican voters prefer her to Trump’s band of MAGA politics, perhaps setting the stage for a return in 2028 and beyond.

Trump has already ruled her out, and she’d be unlikely to accept even if he hadn’t. But just for fun:

You’re hired: She’s a strong politician with a track record of winning elections, and appeals to more moderate Republicans who might be nervous about another Trump presidency. But…

You’re fired: Haley is a critic of Trump, who she described as “unhinged” and too chaotic and divisive to be an effective president.