Are Israel and Hezbollah heading for war?
Are Israel and Hezbollah heading for war?
An Israeli drone strike killing a Hamas operative in Hezbollah’s urban stronghold certainly gives that impression.
And we are hearing more and more from Israeli officials and their mouthpieces in the Western media suggesting a bigger war is increasingly likely.
The 7 October attacks changed the rules for Israel, we are being told. The decades-long policy of living with threats and managing them has ended in the worst massacre of Jews since World War II. Something has to give.
So, Israel must deal with its two closest enemies, Hamas to the south and Hezbollah to the north, or so goes the logic.
We heard that message from the early days of this war. Yoav Gallant, Israel’s minister for defence, reportedly advocated attacking both, but was said to be talked out of it by more moderate ministers and the Americans.
How much of all this is bluster, chutzpah and how much calculated tactics is not clear.
The Beirut airstrike achieved a number of objectives. It killed a sworn foe and sent a message to others, no one is safe. Israel is battling to restore the power of its deterrence and the fear of its enemies after the bloody debacle of 7 October.
Hezbollah fighters stand atop a truck. Pic: AP
It also sent a clear message to Hezbollah. For months the Shia militia organisation has been threatening Israel and attacking it over the border but never going all out. “You want to dance?” Israel is saying to its leadership, “well we can dance and we are serious about it”.
The bellicose rhetoric from officials and friendly journalists serves the same purpose. It warns Hezbollah from starting anything it may come to regret.
But it is important to see beyond the bluster. Some key fundamentals remain unchanged.
Hezbollah has an arsenal of 150,000 missiles hidden in the hills of southern Lebanon pointing at Israel. They are primarily for Iran’s benefit, most analysts agree.
The ayatollahs paid for them and supplied them as insurance against attack in another war, when Israel, possibly with American backing, strikes Iran’s nuclear weapons project. Tehran will not want to play that card prematurely whatever Israel’s provocations in the skies over Beirut.
An Israeli soldier and a Hezbollah flag. Pic: AP
Hezbollah also knows a war would be ruinous for a Lebanon already on its knees economically. It would do nothing to improve the organisation’s political standing.
So if Iran and Hezbollah do not want outright war with Israel, does Israel?
A war with Hezbollah would be devastating for Israel too. Their conflict in 2006 was destructive enough but its enemies now have 10 times as many missiles and they are thought to be more advanced than the arsenal let loose back then. The range of Hezbollah’s rockets is thought to stretch across Israel now and with improved targeting technology. Nowhere would be safe from attack.
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Senior Hamas official killed in explosion
When Israel went into Lebanon on the ground in 2006 its military’s performance was deemed lacklustre by military experts. How much better could it expect to fare now, its resources stretched by a war on its southern border that is three months old?
Israel would far rather Hezbollah is weakened through diplomatic pressure. It is calling on the international community to force Hezbollah to withdraw its forces north of the Litani River, as required under agreements in 2006. Israel hopes predictions of war will galvanise diplomacy towards achieving that aim.
So there are good reasons why war is not as likely as it looks. But it may still come. Israel is still working out its new posture post-7 October. Hawks may still win the day and lead their country into a far wider conflict in the belief that is the only way to keep Israel safe.
And mistakes, miscalculation and escalation could start another war in the Middle East as they have in the past. The danger of this war expanding remains very real.
A new aid system has opened its first distribution centres in Gaza, according to a US-backed organisation dealing with supplies.
The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) began its operations in the territory on Monday, following the resignation of its director, Jake Wood, over its independence.
Gaza’s 2.3m population has been pushed towards famine by Israel’s almost three-month blockade.
Boxes of aid to be distributed across Rafah. Pic: Reuters.
The GHF said lorryloads of food – it did not say how many – had been delivered to its hubs, and distribution to Palestinians had begun.
“More trucks with aid will be delivered tomorrow, with the flow of aid increasing each day,” it said in a statement.
The controversial group, backed by Israel and the United States, has been rejected by the United Nations and other aid groups.
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People line up for food in Gaza
UN agencies and major aid groups have refused to cooperate with the GHF.
They claim Israel is weaponising food, and the new distribution system will be ineffective and lead to further displacement of Palestinians.
They also argue the GHF will fail to meet local needs, and violates humanitarian principles that prohibit a warring party from controlling humanitarian assistance.
In the meantime, scores of Palestinians in Gaza, like Islam Abu Taima, have resorted to searching through rubbish to find food.
Palestinians are having to search through rubbish to find food
She found a small pile of cooked rice, scraps of bread, and a box with a few pieces of cheese inside it – which she said she will serve to her five children.
“We’re dying of hunger,” she told the Associated Press news agency.
“If we don’t eat, we’ll die.”
Islam Abu Taeima finds a piece of bread in a pile of rubbish in Gaza City. Pic: AP.
It is unclear how many of the GHF’s aid trucks will enter Gaza.
It claims it will reach one million Palestinians by the end of the week.
There are questions, however, over who is funding it and how it will work.
Trucks transporting aid for Palestinians in Rafah. Pic: Reuters.
It has been set up as part of an Israeli plan – rather than a UN distribution effort.
Israel, which suggested a similar plan earlier this year, has said it will not be involved in distributing the aid but supported the plan and would provide security.
It says aid deliveries into Gaza are taken by Hamas instead of going to civilians.
Aid groups, however, say there is no evidence of this happening on a systemic basis.
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Israel began to allow a limited amount of food into Gaza last week – after a blockade that prevented food, medicine, fuel and other goods from entering the Palestinian enclave.
A letter has been signed by hundreds of judges and lawyers calling on the UK government to impose trade sanctions on Israel.
It also calls for Israeli ministers to be sanctioned and the suspension of Israel from the UN over “serious breaches of international law”.
“Genocide is being perpetrated in Gaza or that, at a minimum, there is a serious risk of genocide,” the letter says.
The Israeli government has repeatedly dismissed allegations of genocide in Gaza.
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At least 31 dead after school attack
More than 52,000 Palestinians have been killed since Israel launched its ground invasion of Gaza, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, following the deadly attacks by the militant group on Israel, which killed 1,200 people and saw around 250 people taken hostage.
The health ministry’s figures do not differentiate between civilians and fighters in Gaza.
King Charles and Queen Camilla are being urged to use their visit to Canada to seek an apology for the abuse of British children.
Campaigners have called on them to pursue an apology for the “dire circumstances” suffered by so-called “Home Children” over decades.
More than 100,000 were shipped from orphan homes in the UK to Canada between 1869 and 1948 with many used as cheap labour, typically as farm workers and domestic servants. Many were subject to mistreatment and abuse.
Canada has resisted calls to follow the UK and Australia in apologising for its involvement in child migrant schemes.
King Charles and Mark Carney on Monday. Pic: PA
Campaigners for the Home Children say the royal visit presents a “great opportunity” for a change of heart.
“I would ask that King Charles uses his trip to request an apology,” John Jefkins told Sky News.
John’s father Bert was one of 115,000 British Home Children transported to Canada, arriving in 1914 with his brother Reggie.
“It’s really important for the Home Children themselves and for their descendants,” John said.
“It’s something we deserve and it’s really important for the healing process, as well as building awareness of the experience of the Home Children.
“They were treated very, very badly by the Canadian government at the time. A lot of them were abused, they were treated horribly. They were second-class citizens, lepers in a way.”
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John Jefkins
John added: “I think the King’s visit provides a great opportunity to reinforce our campaign and to pursue an apology because we’re part of the Commonwealth and King Charles is a new Head of the Commonwealth meeting a new Canadian prime minister. It’s a chance, for both, to look at the situation with a fresh eye.
“There’s much about this visit that looks on our sovereignty and who we are as Canadians, rightly so.
“I think it’s also right that in contemplating the country we built, we focus on the people who built it, many in the most trying of circumstances.”
The issue was addressed by the then Prince of Wales during a tour of Canada in May 2022. He said at the time: “We must find new ways to come to terms with the darker and more difficult aspects of the past.”
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King Charles and Queen Camilla are on a two-day visit to Canada.
On Tuesday, the King will deliver the Speech from the Throne to open the 45th session of Canada’s parliament.
Camilla was made Patron of Barnardo’s in 2016. The organisation sent tens of thousands of Home Children to Canada. She took on the role, having served as president since 2007.
Buckingham Palace has been contacted for comment.
A spokesperson for the Canadian government said: “The government of Canada is committed to keeping the memory of the British Home Children alive.
“Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada deeply regrets this unjust and discriminatory policy, which was in place from 1869 to 1948. Such an approach would have no place in modern Canada, and we must learn from past mistakes.”
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