World

Are Israel and Hezbollah heading for war?

Published

11 months ago

January 3, 2024

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Are Israel and Hezbollah heading for war?

An Israeli drone strike killing a Hamas operative in Hezbollah’s urban stronghold certainly gives that impression.

And we are hearing more and more from Israeli officials and their mouthpieces in the Western media suggesting a bigger war is increasingly likely.

The 7 October attacks changed the rules for Israel, we are being told. The decades-long policy of living with threats and managing them has ended in the worst massacre of Jews since World War II. Something has to give.

So, Israel must deal with its two closest enemies, Hamas to the south and Hezbollah to the north, or so goes the logic.

We heard that message from the early days of this war. Yoav Gallant, Israel’s minister for defence, reportedly advocated attacking both, but was said to be talked out of it by more moderate ministers and the Americans.

How much of all this is bluster, chutzpah and how much calculated tactics is not clear.

The Beirut airstrike achieved a number of objectives. It killed a sworn foe and sent a message to others, no one is safe. Israel is battling to restore the power of its deterrence and the fear of its enemies after the bloody debacle of 7 October.

It also sent a clear message to Hezbollah. For months the Shia militia organisation has been threatening Israel and attacking it over the border but never going all out. “You want to dance?” Israel is saying to its leadership, “well we can dance and we are serious about it”.

The bellicose rhetoric from officials and friendly journalists serves the same purpose. It warns Hezbollah from starting anything it may come to regret.

But it is important to see beyond the bluster. Some key fundamentals remain unchanged.

Hezbollah has an arsenal of 150,000 missiles hidden in the hills of southern Lebanon pointing at Israel. They are primarily for Iran’s benefit, most analysts agree.

The ayatollahs paid for them and supplied them as insurance against attack in another war, when Israel, possibly with American backing, strikes Iran’s nuclear weapons project. Tehran will not want to play that card prematurely whatever Israel’s provocations in the skies over Beirut.

Hezbollah also knows a war would be ruinous for a Lebanon already on its knees economically. It would do nothing to improve the organisation’s political standing.

So if Iran and Hezbollah do not want outright war with Israel, does Israel?

A war with Hezbollah would be devastating for Israel too. Their conflict in 2006 was destructive enough but its enemies now have 10 times as many missiles and they are thought to be more advanced than the arsenal let loose back then. The range of Hezbollah’s rockets is thought to stretch across Israel now and with improved targeting technology. Nowhere would be safe from attack.

When Israel went into Lebanon on the ground in 2006 its military’s performance was deemed lacklustre by military experts. How much better could it expect to fare now, its resources stretched by a war on its southern border that is three months old?

Israel would far rather Hezbollah is weakened through diplomatic pressure. It is calling on the international community to force Hezbollah to withdraw its forces north of the Litani River, as required under agreements in 2006. Israel hopes predictions of war will galvanise diplomacy towards achieving that aim.

So there are good reasons why war is not as likely as it looks. But it may still come. Israel is still working out its new posture post-7 October. Hawks may still win the day and lead their country into a far wider conflict in the belief that is the only way to keep Israel safe.

And mistakes, miscalculation and escalation could start another war in the Middle East as they have in the past. The danger of this war expanding remains very real.

World

Body pulled from mine after police cut off supplies to ‘smoke out’ thousands of illegal miners

Published

59 mins ago

November 14, 2024

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Body pulled from mine after police cut off supplies to 'smoke out' thousands of illegal miners

A body has been recovered from a South African mine after police cut off basic supplies in an effort to force around 4,000 illegal miners to resurface.

The body has emerged from the closed gold mine in the northwest town of Stilfontein a day after South Africa’s government said it would not help the illegal miners.

Around 20 people have surfaced from the mineshaft this week as police wait nearby to arrest all those appearing from underground.

It comes a day after a cabinet minister said the government was trying to “smoke them [the miners] out”.

The move is part of the police’s “Close the Hole” operation, whereby officers cut off supplies of food, water and other basic necessities to get those who have entered illegally to come out.

Local reports suggest the supply routes were cut off at the mine around two months ago, with relatives of the miners seen in the area as the stand-off continues.

A decomposed body was brought up on Thursday, with pathologists on the scene, police spokesperson Athlenda Mathe said.

It comes after South African cabinet minister Khumbudzo Ntshavheni told reporters on Wednesday that the government would not send any help to the illegal miners, known in the country as zama zamas, because they are involved in a criminal act.

“We are not sending help to criminals. We are going to smoke them out. They will come out. Criminals are not to be helped; criminals are to be prosecuted. We didn’t send them there,” Ms Ntshavheni said.

Senior police and defence officials are expected to visit the area on Friday to “reinforce the government’s commitment to bringing this operation to a safe and lawful conclusion”, according to a media advisory from the police.

In the last few weeks, over 1,000 miners have surfaced at various mines in South Africa’s North West province, where police have cut off supplies.

Many of the miners were reported to be weak, hungry and sickly after going for weeks without basic supplies.

Illegal mining remains common in South Africa’s old gold-mining areas, with miners going into closed shafts to dig for any possible remaining deposits.

The illegal miners are often from neighbouring countries, and police say the illegal operations involve larger syndicates that employ the miners.

Their presence in closed mines has also created problems with nearby communities, which complain that the illegal miners commit crimes ranging from robberies to rape.

Illegal mining groups are known to be heavily armed and disputes between rival groups sometimes result in fatal confrontations.

World

Ukrainian frontline commander warns: ‘The world is scared of Russia and losing is not only our problem’

Published

4 hours ago

November 14, 2024

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Ukrainian frontline commander warns: 'The world is scared of Russia and losing is not only our problem'

In the courtyard of a farmhouse now home to soldiers of the Ukrainian army’s 47th mechanised brigade, I’m introduced to a weary-looking unit by their commander Captain Oleksandr “Sasha” Shyrshyn.

We are about 10km from the border with Russia, and beyond it lies the Kursk region Ukraine invaded in the summer – and where this battalion is now fighting.

The 47th is a crack fighting assault unit.

They’ve been brought to this area from the fierce battles in the country’s eastern Donbas region to bolster Ukrainian forces already here.

War latest: Russia ready to carry out ‘massive attack’

Captain Shyrshyn explains that among the many shortages the military has to deal with, the lack of infantry is becoming a critical problem.

Sasha is just 30 years old, but he is worldly-wise. He used to run an organisation helping children in the country’s east before donning his uniform and going to war.

He is famous in Ukraine and is regarded as one of the country’s top field commanders, who isn’t afraid to express his views on the war and how it’s being waged.

His nom de guerre is ‘Genius’, a nickname given to him by his men.

‘Don’t worry, it’s not a minefield’

Sasha invited me to see one of the American Bradley fighting vehicles his unit uses.

We walk down a muddy lane before he says it’s best to go cross-country.

“We can go that way, don’t worry it’s not a minefield,” he jokes.

He leads us across a muddy field and into a forest where the vehicle is hidden from Russian surveillance drones that try to hunt both American vehicles and commanders.

Sasha shows me a picture of the house they had been staying in only days before – it was now completely destroyed after a missile strike.

Fortunately, neither he, nor any of his men, were there at the time.

“They target commanders,” he says with a smirk.

‘The world is scared of Russia’

It takes me a moment or two to realise we are only a few steps away from the Bradley, dug in and well hidden beneath the trees.

Sasha tells me the Bradley is the finest vehicle he has ever used.

A vehicle so good, he says, it’s keeping the Ukrainian army going in the face of Russia’s overwhelming numbers of soldiers.

He explains: “Almost all our work on the battlefield is cooperation infantry with the Bradley. So we use it for evacuations, for moving people from one place to another, as well as for fire-covering.

“This vehicle is very safe and has very good characteristics.”

Billions of dollars in military aid has been given to Ukraine by the United States, and this vehicle is one of the most valuable assets the US has provided.

Ukraine is running low on men to fight, and the weaponry it has is not enough, especially if it can’t fire long-range missiles into Russia itself – which it is currently not allowed to do.

If President-elect Donald Trump cuts the supply of military aid, the Ukrainians will lose – it’s that simple.

Sasha says: “We have a lack of weapons, we have a lack of artillery, we have a lack of infantry, and as the world doesn’t care about justice, and they don’t want to finish the war by our win, they are afraid of Russia.

“I’m sorry but they’re scared, they’re scared, and it’s not the right way.”

Like pretty much everyone in Ukraine, Sasha is waiting to see what the US election result will mean for his country.

He is sceptical about a deal with Russia.

“Our enemy only understands the language of power. And you cannot finish the war in 24 hours, or during the year without hard decisions, without a fight, so it’s impossible. It’s just talking without results,” he tells me.

‘Losing will be not only our problem’

These men expect the fierce battles inside Kursk to intensify in the coming days.

Indeed, alongside the main supply route into Kursk, workers are already building new defensive positions – unfurling miles of razor wire and digging bunkers for the Ukrainian army if it finds itself in retreat.

Sasha and his men are realistic about support fatigue from the outside world but will keep fighting to the last if they have to.

“I understand this is only our problem, it’s only our issue, and we have to fight this battle, like we have to defend ourselves, it’s our responsibility,” Sasha said.

But he points out everyone should realise just how critical this moment in time is.

“If we look at it widely, we have to understand that us losing will be not only our problem, but it will be for all the world.”

Stuart Ramsay reports from northeastern Ukraine with camera operator Toby Nash, and producers Dominique Van Heerden, Azad Safarov, and Nick Davenport.

World

Spain flooding: New weather warnings issued – as country counts flooding cost

Published

4 hours ago

November 14, 2024

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Spain flooding: New weather warnings issued - as country counts flooding cost

A weather warning has been issued for parts of Spain, as the country counts the cost of recent flooding.

The orange warnings are in place for parts of southwestern Spain – the area around Seville down towards Gibraltar.

Up to 8cm (3ins) of rain could fall within 12 hours, but the weekend looks much more settled in the country.

The latest warnings come just two weeks after flash flooding in Valencia and other parts of the country killed more than 200 people.

Malaga saw 14.2cm (5.6ins) of rainfall on Wednesday – Spain’s highest of the day – most of which fell in six hours.

All train services were halted in Malaga. Some flights have now resumed after the initial disruption.

Emergency services in the province have moved 3,000 people from homes at risk of flooding close to the Guadalhorce River in the west of the city.

Jamie Marchant, 29, from Caerphilly in South Wales travelled to Malaga last Wednesday.

He told Sky News that “debris” had been left behind by the recent rainfall in the region.

“Everyone is pitching in to clean up and some shops are opening as usual,” he added.

Orange warnings for the Valencia region in eastern Spain expired earlier on Thursday.

The adverse weather could lead to total insured losses of more than €4bn (£3.33bn), according to credit rating agency Morningstar DBRS.

Much of the claims are expected to be covered by the Spanish government’s insurance pool, the agency said, but insurance premiums are likely to increase.