The UK’s stats watchdog has launched an investigation into the government’s claim that it cleared the legacy backlog of asylum claims in 2023.
Rishi Sunak and his administration faced criticism on Tuesday for saying they had cleared all the applications to remain in the UK by asylum seekers made before 28 June 2022.
In total, 4,537 claims from the backlog still needed a decision as of Tuesday – but Mr Sunak’s spokesman said since these had been reviewed, the government considers them “cleared”.
Now, the Office for Statistics Regulation has launched an investigation into the announcement.
In total, the government had 92,000 claims to address from before June 2022 to meet the pledge made by Mr Sunak.
Numbers published by the Home Office showed that, in total, 112,138 initial asylum decisions were made between 1 January and 28 December, compared with 31,766 in all of 2022.
Some 86,800 of these decisions were for legacy cases, while, 25,338 were for non-legacy cases.
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In total, 51,469 asylum applications were granted, while 25,550 were refused – meaning 67% were accepted. But it also means that 35,119 “non-substantive” decisions were made.
According to the Home Office, this is where the government withdraws the claim, it is paused, declared void or the applicant failed to complete a part of the application.
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The 35,119 figure is more than two and a half times the 13,093 examples of non-substantive claims recorded in 2022.
The government has said that the remaining 4,537 more complex cases typically involve “asylum seekers presenting as children – where age verification is taking place; those with serious medical issues; or those with suspected past convictions, where checks may reveal criminality that would bar asylum”.
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Govt accused of misleading public
Sky News understands the OSR probe was launched as a result of a complaint, and the initial investigations will take a number of weeks.
While the OSR can ask for additional information from the Home Office, it does not have the power to compel data to be provided. However, it could rescind its kitemark from the Home Office’s releases.
The OSR has been engaging with the Home Office over the long-term about how they use data.
In a letter responding to a complaint last year, Ed Humpherson, the director general for regulation at the OSR, said officials at the Home Office had “actively engaged” with the watchdog about the department’s data practices.
He did, however, note that while “positive developments” were made at the official level, the OSR was still “concerned that the continued misuse of these data by ministers” could “undermine public trust” in the department.
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The prime minister was also rebuked in December 2023 for claiming “debt is falling” by Sir Robert Chote, the chair of the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA).
Number 10 argued Mr Sunak was speaking about a projection which showed debt would fall as a proportion of GDP by 2028.
Sir Robert said “the average person in the street” would have interpreted the comment to mean “debt was already falling or that the government’s policy decisions had lowered it at fiscal events – neither of which is the case”.
He added: “This has clearly been a source of confusion and may have undermined trust in the government’s use of statistics and quantitative analysis in this area.”
Nigel Farage has said Reform UK could cut the minimum wage for young people, saying there is “an argument” that it is currently “too high”.
Speaking at a news conference, he also said his manifesto promises at the last general election to bring in sweeping tax cuts were “only ever aspirations”, and “substantial tax cuts” are “not realistic”.
In a broader defence of his insurgent party, Mr Farage insisted Reform UK is “not a one-man band”, and he is building a team with expertise across a wide range of policy areas.
The Reform UK leader made the comments in a speech and news conference with journalists in the City of London in which he pledged the party would be “the most pro-business, the most pro-entrepreneurship government that has been seen in this country in modern times”.
Asked in the news conference afterwards if he believes the minimum wage is too high, Mr Farage replied: “There’s an argument that minimum wage is too high for younger workers, particularly given that we’ve lowered the level at which NIC [employers’ national insurance] is paid to £5,000 a year.”
This is a reference to Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s decision at the last budget to reduce the threshold at which employers start paying national insurance contributions from £9,100 per year in salary to £5,000.
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Sky’s Deputy Political Editor Sam Coates asks Nigel Farage why we should trust Reform UK’s economic plans.
Making the argument that the change puts too much of a tax burden on businesses, stifling growth, Mr Farage told the chancellor to “do one or the other, do one or the other – either lift the cap at which NI is due, or lower the minimum wage for younger workers”.
The current hourly national minimum wage for apprentices and people under 18 is £7.55, for 18-20 year olds is £10, and for aged 21 and over is £12.21.
But Mr Farage is also being accused of U-turning on the tax cuts he pledged in Reform UK’s 2024 general election manifesto, which was called “Our Contract With You”.
Key measures in the document included raising the minimum threshold of income tax to £20,000, raising the higher rate threshold from £50,271 to £70,000, abolishing stamp duty for properties below £750,000, and abolishing taxes on inheritances below £2m.
But speaking on Monday, the Reform UK leader said: “We want to cut taxes. Of course, we do. But we understand – substantial tax cuts, given the dire state of debt and our finances, are not realistic at this current moment in time.”
He said he would make “some relatively modest changes” immediately, which included scrapping the inheritance tax imposed on family farms, as well as family-run business, and “raise the thresholds at which people start to pay tax” – although he was not specific about the level at which he would put the thresholds.
Challenged by a journalist on whether he is breaking his promises in order to join the mainstream of economic thinking, the Reform UK leader insisted the promises included in the party’s 2024 manifesto “were only ever aspirations”, and the changes made today are about the party “being realistic about the state of the economy”.
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28:21
Watch in full: Nigel Farage outlines Reform UK’s economic policies.
‘It’s not a one-man band’
Mr Farage also insisted that the Reform UK project is not his alone, saying they will be announcing new people to cover various different policy areas in the coming weeks.
He said: “What I’ve tried to do really hard this year is to get away from this idea, this criticism, that somehow it’s a one-man band. It’s not a one-man band.
“There’s a broadening team. They’re sitting there in front of you on the front row – from David Bull, to Lee Anderson, to Richard Tice, to Danny Kruger, and indeed Zia Yusuf as well. And there are others, and there’ll be more.”
He also explained he is not yet ready to say who his chancellor might be, or who would fill the top cabinet roles in a potential future Reform government.
Image: Nigel Farage says Reform UK is expanding its bench of talent. Pic: PA
Reform UK is ‘in chaos’
In response to the speech, a Labour Party spokesperson said: “Nigel Farage has promised a return to damaging austerity, taking an axe to public services, with no cuts off the table. He complained the minimum wage is too high for young workers, while doubling down on his golden giveaway to foreign billionaires.
“Reform would slash the NHS, schools, and pensions – and cancel Labour’s investment in local roads, rail, and clean energy, putting millions of jobs at risk and wreaking havoc on family finances.
“Only this Labour government is fixing the long-term damage to our economy to renew Britain.
And the Conservative shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride said Mr Farage “left the public with far more questions than answers” by not specifying which parts of his manifesto his party stands by.
He added Reform could not be taken seriously on the economy “when their promises disintegrate after five minutes, and they remain committed to extra welfare spending and a huge expansion of the state”.
“After this rambling, incoherent speech, it is clear Reform’s economy policy is in chaos,” Sir Mel said.
“Farage might claim he’s not a ‘one-man band’, but he can’t even tell us who his chancellor would be. This is not serious, it is just more announcements without a plan.”
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