Rishi Sunak has kicked off 2024’s political season with a hint at when the next general election will be – saying it’s his “working assumption” it will happen in the second half of the year.

Speculation has been rife for months about when the prime minister will choose to go to the polls, with some pundits believing he would call one in May to coincide with the local elections.

UK general elections have to be held no more than five years apart, so the next one must take place by 28 January 2025 at the latest.

This is five years from the day the current parliament first met (17 December 2019), plus the time required to run an election campaign.

The phrase “working assumption” does give Mr Sunak wriggle room should circumstances change, and he has not ruled out a spring election.

Sky News spoke to pollsters about the factors the prime minister will be weighing up in making his decision – and when they think the election should be.

“I am absolutely clear it will and should be the autumn,” Conservative peer and pollster Lord Robert Hayward told us.

He said the National Insurance tax cut announced by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt in November will “take time to filter through”, as will the “perception inflation is really on its way down”.

He added that the Conservatives are “still carrying the burden of the events of 2020 to 2022, and they need to put them as far away as possible”.

Lord Hayward predicts the Tory party conference in October will be the “launchpad for the election”, meaning voters will be casting their ballots “probably on 14 November or around that date”.

With a US election set for 5 November, that would mean the campaigns on each side of the Atlantic colliding – a scenario that has not happened in decades.

Officials in Whitehall are said to have warned Downing Street against this because of “security risks”.

However, Lord Hayward said while the US election may be of “slight concern” he doesn’t believe it will be a “deciding factor” in when we go to the polls.

PM ‘may copy Thatcher’s wait-and-see strategy’

Sky’s election analyst Professor Michael Thrasher has predicted a slightly earlier date of late September or early October – though he says Mr Sunak may “wait and see” how the first half of the year plays out.

He said: “The Conservatives trail Labour by 18 points in the latest polling, a swing sufficient to give Sir Keir Starmer a healthy majority at the coming election.

“A series of record-breaking by-election defeats this parliament confirm the Tory predicament. Clawing back the deficit, and recovering trust among electors is going to take time.”

Prof Thrasher said the outcome of the May local elections could affect the timing of when the prime minister sends voters to the polls.

“Sunak may copy Margaret Thatcher’s wait-and-see strategy,” Prof Thrasher said.

“The May local election results in both 1983 and 1987 were favourable, and she went for general elections a month later.

“But Labour’s lead over the Conservatives is so large that this option might not be available. This suggests a contest in autumn 2024, late September/early October, is favourite.”

The bleak assessments are a remarkable turnaround for a party that just four years ago won a thumping 80-seat majority under Boris Johnson.

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But the scandals that led to his downfall, and the economic chaos unleashed by the Liz Truss mini-budget – all against the backdrop of rising NHS waiting lists and a cost of living crisis – is why some strategists believe a Tory defeat at the next general election is all but inevitable.

PM ‘may call election for 14 November’

Or, as polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice put it: “Frankly, they are heading for crucifixion.”

He said that, despite the noise from Conservatives about immigration, the economy “is the most important issue for voters”, followed by the NHS, and the government needs time to make progress in these areas.

Like Lord Hayward, he believes Mr Sunak may fire the starting gun for the election in his speech to close the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham on 2 October, which “could mean an election on 14 November”.

He said all parties are holding their conferences earlier than usual this autumn, with the Tory one happening last – perhaps giving an insight into the prime minister’s thinking.

He was never convinced by the May election rumours – saying it is unlikely Mr Sunak “would risk” cutting a two-year term to 18 months for an election he is expected to lose.

“At the moment, there is no good reason for them to do anything other than play it long.”

So where did the May rumours come from?

Spring election ‘could minimise Tory losses’

There have been signs recently the government is at least keeping the door open for the possibility of a spring election.

The National Insurance cut announced in the autumn statement is coming into effect in January, rather the start of the new tax year in April, while the spring budget is being held earlier than usual – prompting speculation of a May election off the back of tax giveaways to boost the Tories’ chances of victory.

Shadow frontbencher Emily Thornberry even told Sky News recently that a May election was “Westminster’s worst kept secret”.

That may no longer be the case, but some strategists believe it may be in the Tory party’s best interests to go early in order to stem losses.

Lord Daniel Finkelstein, a former adviser to Sir John Major, warned there are costs of holding onto power.

“When I look back on the 1997 election, I think one thing we could have done to mitigate the size of our defeat is to have gone slightly earlier,” he told Sky News.

Lord Finkelstein said while he can “understand the temptation” for Mr Sunak to wait it out in the hope of turning things around, that “serendipitous occasion” may not occur and things could even get worse.

He pointed to potentially bruising local election results in May and the fact that Channel crossings are likely to rise over the summer, while the mortgage crisis may deepen as more people face the end of their current fixed rates.

This would be damaging going into an election where opposition parties will be making the case for change, and the Tories’ best bet is to argue “the country is on the right track, and we are turning things around”.

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He said: “It’s very hard for any prime minister to call an election which they are quite likely to lose. While the temptation to go on will be strong, putting it off will make things more difficult if more problems arise.

“The timing of the election will not be the predeterminer of the outcome. It will be the fact that Boris Johnson and Liz Truss let down the country and it will be very difficult to turn that around.”

‘Spring election rumours keeping Labour on their toes’

Labour have accused Mr Sunak of “squatting in Downing Street” by refusing to call an election earlier.

They have been preparing for office for some time and have factored in the possibility of a spring election.

“Our job is to be ready whenever it comes, and we will be,” said one Labour source.

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However, Sir John believes the leaks of a spring election were designed purely “to keep the Opposition on their toes… creating uncertainty around campaign plans and policy announcements”.

“If the Labour lead is halved to eight or nine points, then there may be an argument to say ‘let’s go early, we might lose, but we will keep some seats, there could even be the possibility of a hung parliament’. But the Tories are at rock bottom”, he said.

So does this mean Mr Sunak could even wait until January 2025 to go to the polls?

“There is a risk the economy will get even worse by November,” Sir John said. “I think October is as long as they will have before having to admit the game is up.”