Rishi Sunak has kicked off 2024’s political season with a hint at when the next general election will be – saying it’s his “working assumption” it will happen in the second half of the year.
UK general elections have to be held no more than five years apart, so the next one must take place by 28 January 2025 at the latest.
This is five years from the day the current parliament first met (17 December 2019), plus the time required to run an election campaign.
The phrase “working assumption”does give Mr Sunak wriggle room should circumstances change, and he has not ruled out a spring election.
Sky News spoke to pollsters about the factors the prime minister will be weighing up in making his decision – and when they think the election should be.
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1:29
When will the next general election be?
“I am absolutely clear it will and should be the autumn,” Conservative peer and pollster Lord Robert Hayward told us.
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He said the National Insurance tax cut announced by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt in November will “take time to filter through”, as will the “perception inflation is really on its way down”.
He added that the Conservatives are “still carrying the burden of the events of 2020 to 2022, and they need to put them as far away as possible”.
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Lord Hayward predicts the Tory party conference in October will be the “launchpad for the election”, meaning voters will be casting their ballots “probably on 14 November or around that date”.
With a US election set for 5 November, that would mean the campaigns on each side of the Atlantic colliding – a scenario that has not happened in decades.
Officials in Whitehall are said to have warned Downing Street against this because of “security risks”.
However, Lord Hayward said while the US election may be of “slight concern” he doesn’t believe it will be a “deciding factor” in when we go to the polls.
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8:12
Sunak ‘squatting’ in No 10
PM ‘may copy Thatcher’s wait-and-see strategy’
Sky’s election analyst Professor Michael Thrasher has predicted a slightly earlier date of late September or early October – though he says Mr Sunak may “wait and see” how the first half of the year plays out.
He said: “The Conservatives trail Labour by 18 points in the latest polling, a swing sufficient to give Sir Keir Starmer a healthy majority at the coming election.
“A series of record-breaking by-election defeats this parliament confirm the Tory predicament. Clawing back the deficit, and recovering trust among electors is going to take time.”
Prof Thrasher said the outcome of the May local elections could affect the timing of when the prime minister sends voters to the polls.
“Sunak may copy Margaret Thatcher’s wait-and-see strategy,” Prof Thrasher said.
“The May local election results in both 1983 and 1987 were favourable, and she went for general elections a month later.
“But Labour’s lead over the Conservatives is so large that this option might not be available. This suggests a contest in autumn 2024, late September/early October, is favourite.”
The bleak assessments are a remarkable turnaround for a party that just four years ago won a thumping 80-seat majority under Boris Johnson.
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But the scandals that led to his downfall, and the economic chaos unleashed by the Liz Truss mini-budget – all against the backdrop of rising NHS waiting lists and a cost of living crisis – is why some strategists believe a Tory defeat at the next general election is all but inevitable.
PM ‘may call election for 14 November’
Or, as polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice put it: “Frankly, they are heading for crucifixion.”
He said that, despite the noise from Conservatives about immigration, the economy “is the most important issue for voters”, followed by the NHS, and the government needs time to make progress in these areas.
Like Lord Hayward, he believes Mr Sunak may fire the starting gun for the election in his speech to close the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham on 2 October, which “could mean an election on 14 November”.
He said all parties are holding their conferences earlier than usual this autumn, with the Tory one happening last – perhaps giving an insight into the prime minister’s thinking.
He was never convinced by the May election rumours – saying it is unlikely Mr Sunak “would risk” cutting a two-year term to 18 months for an election he is expected to lose.
“At the moment, there is no good reason for them to do anything other than play it long.”
So where did the May rumours come from?
Spring election ‘could minimise Tory losses’
There have been signs recently the government is at least keeping the door open for the possibility of a spring election.
The National Insurance cut announced in the autumn statement is coming into effect in January, rather the start of the new tax year in April, while the spring budget is being held earlier than usual – prompting speculation of a May election off the back of tax giveaways to boost the Tories’ chances of victory.
Shadow frontbencher Emily Thornberry even told Sky News recently that a May election was “Westminster’s worst kept secret”.
That may no longer be the case, but some strategists believe it may be in the Tory party’s best interests to go early in order to stem losses.
Lord Daniel Finkelstein, a former adviser to Sir John Major, warned there are costs of holding onto power.
“When I look back on the 1997 election, I think one thing we could have done to mitigate the size of our defeat is to have gone slightly earlier,” he told Sky News.
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8:42
UK is ‘desperate for an election’
Lord Finkelstein said while he can “understand the temptation” for Mr Sunak to wait it out in the hope of turning things around, that “serendipitous occasion” may not occur and things could even get worse.
He pointed to potentially bruising local election results in May and the fact that Channel crossings are likely to rise over the summer, while the mortgage crisis may deepen as more people face the end of their current fixed rates.
This would be damaging going into an election where opposition parties will be making the case for change, and the Tories’ best bet is to argue “the country is on the right track, and we are turning things around”.
He said: “It’s very hard for any prime minister to call an election which they are quite likely to lose. While the temptation to go on will be strong, putting it off will make things more difficult if more problems arise.
“The timing of the election will not be the predeterminer of the outcome. It will be the fact that Boris Johnson and Liz Truss let down the country and it will be very difficult to turn that around.”
‘Spring election rumours keeping Labour on their toes’
Labour have accused Mr Sunak of “squatting in Downing Street” by refusing to call an election earlier.
They have been preparing for office for some time and have factored in the possibility of a spring election.
“Our job is to be ready whenever it comes, and we will be,” said one Labour source.
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However, Sir John believes the leaks of a spring election were designed purely “to keep the Opposition on their toes… creating uncertainty around campaign plans and policy announcements”.
“If the Labour lead is halved to eight or nine points, then there may be an argument to say ‘let’s go early, we might lose, but we will keep some seats, there could even be the possibility of a hung parliament’. But the Tories are at rock bottom”, he said.
So does this mean Mr Sunak could even wait until January 2025 to go to the polls?
“There is a risk the economy will get even worse by November,” Sir John said. “I think October is as long as they will have before having to admit the game is up.”
“Return hubs” that would see Britain send failed asylum seekers to another country have been endorsed by the UN’s refugee agency.
There have been reports that Sir Keir Starmer’s government is looking into deporting illegal migrants to the Balkans.
According to The Times, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper met the UN’s high commissioner for refugees last month to discuss the idea.
It would see the government pay countries in the Balkans to take failed asylum seekers – a prospect ministers hope might discourage people from crossing the Channel in small boats.
A total of 9,099 migrants have made that journey so far this year, including more than 700 on Tuesday this week – the highest number on a single day in 2025.
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2:11
One dead in Channel crossing
The UN’s refugee agency has set out how such hubs could work while meeting its legal standards in a document published earlier this week.
It recommended monitoring the hubs to make sure human rights standards are “reliably met”.
The country hosting the return hub would need to grant temporary legal status for migrants, and the country sending the failed asylum seekers would need to support it to make sure there are “adequate accommodation and reception arrangements”.
A UK government source said it was a helpful intervention that could make the legal pathway to some form of return hub model smoother.
It comes after the EU Commission proposed allowing EU members to set up so-called “return hubs” abroad, with member state Italy having already started sending illegal migrants abroad.
It sends people with no right to remain to Italian-run detention centres in Albania, something Sir Keir has taken an interest in since coming to power.
With Reform UK leading Labour in several opinion polls this year, the prime minister has been talking tough on immigration – but the figures around Channel crossings have made for difficult reading.
Lib Dems don’t tend to listen to right-wing podcasts.
But if they did, they may be heartened by some of what they hear.
Take the interview Kemi Badenoch gave to the TRIGGERnometry show in February.
Ten minutes into the episode, one of the hosts recounts a conversation with a Tory MP who said the party lost the last election to the Lib Dems because they went too far to the right.
Everyone laughs.
Then in March, in a conversation with the Canadian psychologist Jordan Peterson, the Tory leader was asked to describe a Liberal Democrat.
“Somebody who is good at fixing their church roof,” said Ms Badenoch.
She meant it as a negative.
Lib Dems now mention it every time you go near any of them with a TV camera.
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4:12
‘It’s a two-horse race!’
The pitch is clear, the stunts are naff
At times, party figures seem somewhat astonished the Tories don’t view them as more of a threat, given they were beaten by them in swathes of their traditional heartlands last year.
Going forward, the pitch is clear.
Sir Ed Davey wants to replace the Tories as the party of middle England.
Image: Sir Ed rides on a rollercoaster. Pic: PA
One way he’s trying to do that is through somewhat naff and very much twee campaign stunts.
To open this local election race, the Lib Dem leader straddled a hobbyhorse and galloped through a blue fence.
More recently, he’s brandished a sausage, hopped aboard a rollercoaster and planted wildflowers.
Senior Lib Dems say they are “constantly asking” whether this is the correct strategy, especially given the hardship being faced by many in the country.
They maintain it is helping get their message out though, according to the evidence they have.
“I think you can take the issues that matter to voters seriously while not taking yourself too seriously, and I also think it’s a way of engaging people who are turned off by politics,” said Sir Ed.
Image: Sir Ed on a hobby horse during the launch of the party’s local election campaign in the Walled Garden of Badgemore Park in Henley-on-Thames. Pic: PA
Pic: PA
‘What if people don’t want grown-ups?’
In that way, the Lib Dems are fishing in a similar pool of voters to Reform UK, albeit from the other side of the water’s edge.
Indeed, talk to Lib Dem MPs, and they say while some Reform supporters they meet would never vote for a party with the word “liberal” in its name, others are motivated more by generalised anger than any traditional political ideology.
These people, the MPs say, can be persuaded.
But this group also shows a broader risk to the Lib Dem approach.
Put simply, are they simply too nice for the fractured times we live in?
“The Lib Dems want to be the grown-ups in the room,” says Joe Twyman, director of Delta Poll.
“We like to think that the grown-ups in the room will be rewarded… but what if people don’t want grown-ups in the room, what if people want kids shitting on the floor.”
Image: Sir Ed canoeing in the River Severn in Shrewsbury, Shropshire. Pic: PA
A plan that looks different to the status quo
The party’s answer to this is that they are alive to the trap Lib Dems have walked into in the past of adopting a technocratic tone and blandly telling the public every issue is a “bit more complicated” than it seems.
One senior figure says the Lib Dems are trying to do something quite unusual for a progressive centre-left party in making a broader emotional argument about why the public should pick them.
This source says that approach runs through the stunts but also through the focus on care and the party leader’s personal connection to the issue.
Presenting a plan that looks different to the status quo is another way to try to stand apart.
It’s why there has been a focus on attacking Donald Trump and talking up the EU recently, two areas left unoccupied by the main parties.
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1:09
‘A snivelling cretin’: Your response?
The focus on local campaigning
But beyond the national strategy, Lib Dems believe it’s their local campaigning that really reaps rewards.
In the run-up to the last election, several more regional press officers were recruited.
Many stories pumped out by the media office now have a focus on data that can be broken down to a constituency level and given to local news outlets.
Party sources say there has also been a concerted attempt to get away from the cliche of the Lib Dems constantly calling for parliament to be recalled.
“They beat us to it,” said one staffer of the recent recall to debate British Steel.
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1:08
Steel might have been ‘under orders’ from China
‘Gail’s bakery rule’
This focus on the local is helped by the fact many Lib Dem constituencies now look somewhat similar.
That was evidenced by the apparent “Gail’s bakery rule” last year, in which any constituency with a branch of the upmarket pastry purveyor had activists heaped on it.
The similarities have helped the Lib Dems get away from another cliche – that of the somewhat opportunist targeting of different areas with very different messages.
“There is a certain consistency in where we won that helps explain that higher vote retention,” said Lib Dem president Lord Pack.
“Look at leaflets in different constituencies [last year] and they were much more consistent than previous elections… the messages are fundamentally the same in a way that was not always the case in the past.”
Image: Sir Ed in a swan pedalo on Bude Canal in Cornwall. Pic: PA
A bottom-up campaign machine
New MPs have also been tasked with demonstrating delivery and focusing doggedly on the issues that matter to their constituents.
One Home Counties MP says he wants to be able to send out leaflets by 2027, saying “everyone in this constituency knows someone who has been helped by their local Lib Dem”.
In the run-up to last year’s vote, strategists gave the example of the Lib Dem candidate who was invited to a local ribbon-cutting ceremony in place of the sitting Tory MP as proof of how the party can ingratiate itself into communities.
With that in mind, the aim for these local elections is to pick up councillors in the places the party now has new MPs, allowing them to dig in further and keep building a bottom-up campaign machine.
‘Anyone but Labour or Conservative’
But what of the next general election?
Senior Lib Dems are confident of holding their current 72 seats.
They also point to the fact 20 of their 27 second-place finishes currently have a Conservative MP.
Those will be the main focus, along with the 43 seats in which they finished third.
There’s also an acronym brewing to describe the approach – ABLOC or “Anyone but Labour or Conservative”.
Image: Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch aren’t exactly flying high in the opinion polls
9% swing could make Sir Ed leader of the opposition
The hope is for the political forces to align and Reform UK to continue splitting the Tory vote while unpopularity with the Labour government and Conservative opposition triggers some to jump ship.
A recent pamphlet by Lord Pack showed if the Tories did not make progress against the other parties, just 25 gains from them by the Lib Dems – the equivalent of a 9% swing – would be enough to make Sir Ed leader of the opposition.
What’s more, a majority of these seats would be in the South East and South West, where the party has already picked up big wins.
As for the overall aim of all this, Lord Pack is candid the Lib Dems shouldn’t view a hung parliament as the best way to achieve the big prize of electoral reform because they almost always end badly for the smaller party.
Instead, the Lib Dem president suggests the potential fragmentation of politics could bring electoral reform closer in a more natural way.
“What percentage share of the vote is the most popular party going to get at the next general election, it’s quite plausible that that will be under 30%. Our political system can’t cope with that sort of world,” he said.
Whether Ms Badenoch will still be laughing then remains to be seen.
This is part of a series of local election previews with the five major parties. All five have been invited to take part.
It would be “foolish” to stop engaging with China, the chancellor has said, as Sir Keir Starmer held his first call with Donald Trump since he put 10% tariffs on goods imported from the UK.
Rachel Reeves will hold talks with the US next week amid efforts to establish a trade deal, which the government hopes will take the sting out of the president’s tariffs.
There has been speculation Washington may press the government to limit its dealings with China as part of that deal, having launched a tit-for-tat trade war with its economic rival.
But Ms Reeves told The Daily Telegraph:”China is the second-biggest economy in the world, and it would be, I think, very foolish, to not engage.
“That’s the approach of this government.”
She suggested she would back the fast fashion firm Shein launching an initial public offering (IPO) in the UK, saying the London Stock Exchange and Financial Conduct Authority have “very strict standards” and “we do want to welcome new listings”.
Shein, which was founded in China but is now based in Singapore, has faced several obstacles to its efforts to float, including UK political pressure over alleged supply chain and labour abuses.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer and Donald Trump met in February. Pic: PA
‘Productive discussions’
When it comes to a UK-US deal, The Daily Telegraph has reported officials in Washington believe an agreement could be weeks away.
But on Thursday, Mr Trump said he was in “no rush” to reach any deals because of the revenues his new tariffs are generating.
During Sir Keir’s call with the US president on Friday, the two leaders talked about the “ongoing and productive discussions” on trade between the two nations, according to a Downing Street spokesperson.
“The prime minister reiterated his commitment to free and open trade and the importance of protecting the national interest,” Number 10 said.
As well as the 10% levy on all goods imported to America from the UK, Mr Trump enacted a 25% levy on car imports.