How a hockey player quit the sport — and became a professional bull riding champion
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Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
IT’S AN UNAVOIDABLE TOPIC for Nick Tetz when he’s hanging out at a bar.
He’s a professional bull rider. That’s a mechanical bull in the corner. How long can he last before flying off?
“It’s kind of like telling someone you’re a UFC fighter and having someone say, ‘Oh really? Go fight that guy.’ And you’re like, ‘Well no, I’m not going to go do that,'” said Tetz, a rising star in Professional Bull Riding PBR who competed in last year’s PBR World Finals.
To set the record straight: He could hang on a mechanical bull “probably for quite a while.”
Depending on his, ahem, mindset at the time.
“It depends on how many wobbly pops I’ve had that night,” he said. “I’ve been on a few of them. It’s a different vibe than riding a real animal. I usually stay on until my head starts spinning,”
Tetz’s head was spinning for a different reason about a decade ago. He was being pulled in different directions. One moment, he was a hockey player growing up in Calgary, seeing a path forward to juniors and then perhaps a pro career beyond that. The next moment he was hanging onto a steer at amateur rodeo tournaments around Alberta.
Eventually, he chose bucks over pucks.
“When I got to the age where I started to get on steers and bulls, it just kind of took over,” he told ESPN, days before a PBR tour stop in New York City. “I thought about the bull riding more than I thought about hockey. It switched directions completely.”
The 2018 PBR Canada Rookie of the Year and 2022 PBR Canada champion, Tetz said his hockey past has directly led to his current success in rodeo — as an athlete, as a teammate, and as someone who learned it’s the passion that ultimately makes or breaks a champion.
TETZ GREW UP in Calgary. He considers himself a Flames fan, but he grew up rooting for the Edmonton Oilers. He felt like he had to, as Ryan Smyth, a 15-year veteran of the team, was his cousin.
Sort of.
“My auntie married his uncle, so not by blood or anything. Maybe a second or third cousin? I got to meet him a couple times and hang out with him. So I still like to brag about it,” he said, laughing.
Being an Oilers fan in Calgary wasn’t as uncomfortable as one might imagine.
“Honestly, it’s harder being a Flames fan. Oilers fans are pretty crazy, and they’re all over the place,” he said. “It seems like home-ice advantage isn’t a thing at Calgary games, that’s for sure, because there are so many Oilers fans all over the place. It doesn’t matter how bad the team is. They ride or die.”
Like many Canadian kids, Tetz was surrounded by hockey players. Friends. Extended family members who played Junior A hockey and had a chance to advance to the Western Hockey League.
Tetz was skating before he was 2 years old. He was constantly playing hockey. “It was my first love. I wanted to make the NHL,” he said.
He went to a private school, Tanbridge Academy, where hockey wasn’t just a focus but was literally one of his courses. “We weren’t a big enough school to have a hockey team, so we just did practice sessions on the ice,” he said.
Tetz estimates that between school and his youth hockey teams, he was on the ice nine times a week.
He played high-level youth hockey, including the Circle K Classic tournament in Calgary. His Elite Prospects page shows four seasons of the sport, culminating with the Calgary Royals U18 AAA in 2016-17. He said he played against players such as Peyton Krebs of the Buffalo Sabres and Kirby Dach of the Montreal Canadiens back in their youth days.
Tetz’s teammates were aware of his affinity for rodeo. “But I don’t think any of them really knew how invested I truly was into it,” he said.
His love for riding was first sparked on a ranch in Arrowwood, Alberta. Duane and Judy Ashbacher were Tetz’s godparents, local stock contractors who own a family ranch and helped produce local rodeo events. Tetz would go there in the summer to work.
“The older I get, the more I can see what [my dad] was doing: I think he kind of thought I was starting to become a spoiled hockey kid and he figured I needed to learn how to work,” he said.
Tetz was around 12 years old, baling hay and learning to drive around the ranch. When his dad arrived to pick him up, he asked Tetz whether he wanted to get on a steer and ride it for the first time.
“I was scared to do it, honestly. But my dad seemed really excited about it, so I didn’t want to disappoint him,” he said. “Two years later, I was going to pro rodeos. A couple of years after that, I had made my first Canadian finals and just kept rolling from there.”
Tetz was about 15 years old when he decided bull riding was his passion. When he did, a funny thing happened on the ice.
“I was still playing hockey competitively. As soon as I realized that I didn’t really care as much about hockey as I did bull riding, all of a sudden I never really had a bad game,” he said.
He ended up earning first-pairing minutes as a defenseman, despite knowing that hockey was no longer his sport of choice.
“I never really had a bad shift after that,” he said. “I was like, ‘Oh man, I should have just stopped caring a long time ago. That would have saved me and my dad a lot of arguments while driving home from the game.'”
His father, Bruce, loves hockey. He loved watching Tetz play and was invested in his son’s burgeoning career. He traveled for his job, and he would book his trips around Nick’s games — always making sure he was home on Tuesday night and again on Saturday.
Eventually, Tetz and his teammates aged out of the Royals association, which meant it was time to make the jump to Canadian junior hockey. Some of his friends moved on, including a few who would play in the NCAA instead. Tetz had his own chance to make the jump to juniors, but his heart was elsewhere.
“An amateur rodeo I had entered had its finals at the same time as the junior team’s main camp,” he said. “All I really had to do at the camp was show up and not suck [to make it].”
When his father talked about signing him up for that junior main camp, Tetz had to inform him that he had entered the Lakeland rodeo finals on the same weekend.
“I think I’m going to go to that instead,” Tetz said.
He still remembers his father getting upset in that moment.
“It was because he didn’t really know where I was at. I didn’t … I didn’t really tell him or anything,” Tetz recalled. “I’m sure at some point he kind of thought it was kind of a waste having done all of this hockey. But him and my mom always raised me to understand that if you’re going to do something, you need to be all-in and try the best you can at it. That’s what hockey was like for me [until rodeo].”
THAT “HOCKEY IS LIFE” approach was something Tetz applied to riding. He considers it a main factor behind his success.
“A lot of people don’t take it to the next level. They think it’s cool to be the bull rider, to go to the bar and brag about how you were out there,” he said. “The guys that truly love it, you don’t ever hear them talking about that kind of stuff unless somebody asks them. It’s because you gotta truly love doing it. It’s so dangerous that if you don’t love it, it’s not worth doing. You’re almost stupid for doing it if you don’t love it.”
Tetz sees the embodiment of that vibe in a current NHL player: Chicago Blackhawks rookie sensation Connor Bedard.
“That kid’s unreal. He just truly loves playing hockey. Broken wrist, shooting pucks with one hand, you know? That’s why he’s got such a good release now,” he said. “It’s just going that extra step compared to other people. Because you truly love what you do.”
Tetz said that hockey gave him the foundation he needed as a young athlete. It helped him catch up as a rider.
“I started the sport a little bit later than a lot of guys. I was always busy playing hockey and couldn’t afford to get hurt, so I was playing catch-up most rodeo seasons,” he said. “What kept me competing around everyone was my athletic ability that I had gotten from playing hockey.”
Unfortunately, hockey also gave him something else a little less beneficial to his main sport.
“When you’re a bull rider, you want to stay a little bit smaller. But I’ve got hockey player legs,” he said. “I’ve lost them a little bit, but there’s a lot of Western-style jeans that I can’t fit into because my thighs are a little bit bigger than everybody else’s.”
Casey Lane, general manager of the Arizona Ridge Riders, said Tetz’s history with hockey helped him understand the importance of preparation.
“What it means to stick to a plan, to go to the gym, to listen to what your coaches are saying,” Lane said. “To work his own individual success plan on a daily basis is something, again, is not something that’s engrained in Western sports athletes, who generally come up on their own with no coaches, no plans. They just sort of do it until they are good enough to become professional, and then they become professional.”
The PBR Team Series debuted in 2023 with eight teams. The Arizona Ridge Riders picked Tetz up as a free agent early last year.
“Nick was the diamond in the rough for me. I soon realized that he was our secret weapon,” said Colby Yates, the Ridge Riders’ head coach. “His talent speaks for itself, but Nick has an ability to maintain confidence in not only in himself but with the whole. He is a coach’s dream and the ultimate team player.”
Hockey also helped him understand his role in the locker room. Tetz quickly reverted back to his normal role.
“I wasn’t sure what my role was going to be [in PBR], but coming from hockey, I was always the energy guy. I kept the room light, messed around, let’s keep the vibes high,” he said. “The guy who high-fives everyone before we went out. Keeping the morale up.”
The “energy guys” in hockey can set the tone early with an effective shift. Tetz transferred that mindset to rodeo: In many events, he was the first one on his team to get on a bull.
“I liked it because whether I did good or bad, I still could contribute to the team. If I was the first guy out and I did great, I got the ball rolling for us. If I didn’t, I could come back and help motivate the other guy,” he said. “It reminded me a little bit of hockey. That brotherhood going into the arena, stuff like that.”
Lane said the Ridge Riders moved Tetz up the order because his team sports background helped him understand momentum.
“Regardless of whether he rode or bucked off, he still understood how important it was to get back in the dugout with the team, pump the next guy up, pulling ropes, slapping backs, really creating an energy there that helped us create a winning culture regardless of how the momentum of the game was going,” Lane said.
The Ridge Raiders finished third in the PBR team standings in 2023. One of Tetz’s career highlights came one year earlier, when he was crowned 2022 PBR Canada champion. He received a $50,000 bonus, which was quickly cycled into home renovations for him and his fiancée. Perhaps just as importantly for a bull rider, he also won a belt buckle.
“It was the first buckle I got that had my name on it,” Tetz said. “That win was pretty special for me because it gave me a lot of opportunities that I don’t think I would have gotten.”
It was the kind of accomplishment that he dreamed about as a young athlete. Only, at the time, he didn’t think it was going to be in rodeo.
“When I was a kid, it was all about getting to the NHL and winning the Stanley Cup. What’s crazy is that I’m at the NHL level for bull riding,” he said.
“The job’s not finished. But it’s cool to look back and realize what you’ve accomplished and where you came from. It’s pretty unreal.”
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David Hale
The first College Football Playoff rankings came out five weeks ago. They looked a lot like tonight’s rankings.
We’ve had precious little movement at the top, with a few teams jockeying up or down a slot, but effectively no seismic shifts in the landscape. BYU and Texas are the only two teams that were projected in the field in the committee’s first ranking that aren’t now — and they’re just barely on the outside with reasonable arguments for inclusion.
Teams ranked in the top 18 by the committee this year are a combined 55-9, with six of those losses coming to other teams ranked in the top 18. All three outliers are courtesy of — you guessed it — the ACC (Louisville to Cal, Virginia to Wake and Georgia Tech to Pitt).
That’s a massive anomaly. Last year, top-18 teams at this point had lost 19 games, including 14 to teams outside their own grouping. Top-10 teams are 33-4 this year. In the first 11 years of the playoff, top-10 teams had lost an average of nine games by this point in the season.
The two words that best describe this year’s playoff push are “status quo.”
That, of course, has been bad news for all the teams on the outside looking in — from those with valid cases such as Miami, BYU and Vanderbilt, to underdogs such as USC, Utah or Arizona that might’ve had a shot in a more chaotic year.
But the real loser in this copy and paste rankings season is all the fans who just want to see things get weird. It’s a sad state of affairs when we’re left to rely on MACtion and the ACC to do all the heavy lifting when it comes to college football drama. The power players need to step up — or, perhaps, ratchet down — their game to add a bit more drama.
The good news is, the committee’s ad hoc reasoning, mushmouthed explanations and mind-boggling about-faces still leave plenty to argue about, even if the big picture hasn’t changed all that much.
Here’s this week’s biggest slights, snubs and shenanigans.
It’s not entirely clear how this committee values wins. For the past month, the priority has certainly appeared to be about which team has the better losses (unless, of course, you’re Alabama).
That seems a foolish way to prioritize playoff teams, since the goal of the playoff isn’t to lose to good teams but to win games.
Does Texas have a bad loss? Yes. A 29-21 defeat to woeful Florida — even if the Gators also played Georgia and Ole Miss close and just walloped a team that beat Alabama head-to-head — is problematic.
But look who Texas has beaten: No. 7 Texas A&M by 10, No. 8 Oklahoma by 17 and No. 14 Vandy by three (in a game they led by 24 in the fourth quarter). That’s the résumé of a team capable of winning a national championship — even if the Horns were also capable of losing to a second-rate SEC team.
Are we trying to find teams with the most upside or give participation trophies to the ones which have not lost an ugly one? (Except, again, Alabama.)
And it’s not as if the committee believes an extra loss is disqualifying. Oklahoma, Alabama, Notre Dame and Miami all have two losses and are ranked ahead of one-loss BYU (more on that in a moment), so what’s the harm of moving a three-loss Texas ahead of a two-loss team that has accomplished less?
This all comes back to the most frequent and justified criticism of the committee: The same rules aren’t applied evenly. In some cases, record matters. In some cases, best wins matter. In some cases, better losses matter. The standard varies based on the team being considered. But if the committee is going to err in favor of any team, it should probably do so for one that’s proved — not once, not twice, but three times — that it can beat an elite opponent.
Oh, and moving Texas up ahead of, say, Notre Dame would also have the added bonus of allowing the committee to sidestep another tricky situation. Which leads us to…
We’re putting these two teams together because we’ve already lamented the committee’s utterly disingenuous evaluation of them repeatedly, so it feels redundant to keep going down the same rabbit hole. But, for the sake of two programs being astonishingly misevaluated, let’s do one more round.
For Miami, the logic is obvious: The Canes beat Notre Dame head-to-head.
But let’s keep going. Miami’s two losses — SMU and Louisville — would rank as the fourth- and fifth-toughest games on Notre Dame’s schedule, had the Irish played them. Instead, Notre Dame has cruised through an essentially listless slate. Six of Notre Dame’s 10 wins came against teams that beat zero or one other Power 4 opponent. Stanford — seriously, Stanford! — is Notre Dame’s fourth-best win (by record). Yes, Notre Dame played well enough in losses to two very good teams, but one of those teams has the same record and is somehow ranked lower! Even if this is strictly about the “eye test,” there’s little argument for ignoring the head-to-head outcome. Notre Dame’s strength of record is 13th. Miami’s is 14th. Notre Dame’s game control is fifth. Miami’s is sixth. If all else is the same, how is head-to-head not the deciding factor?
Yet, here’s a little more salt in the wound for the Canes: Had Florida State finished 6-2 instead of 2-6 in ACC play, Miami would’ve won the (fifth) tiebreaker for a spot in the ACC title game and could’ve locked up its place in the playoff by simply beating Virginia. Instead, the Canes will sit at home and watch and hope and, at this point, probably get left out. Chess, not checkers, by rival FSU.
As for BYU, the committee’s desire to overlook the Cougars makes no sense. Let’s take a look at a blind résumé, shall we? (Note: Best wins and composite top 40 based on an average of SP+, FPI and Sagarin ratings.)
Team A: No. 6 strength of record, No. 14 game control, best win vs. No. 11, next vs. No. 28, loss to No. 5, four wins vs. composite top 40, five wins vs. teams that finished 7-5 or better
Team B: No. 7 strength of record, No. 10 game control, best win vs. No. 13, next vs. No. 27, loss to No. 7, three wins vs. composite top-40, two wins vs. teams that finished 7-5 or better
Now, just based on that information, Team A would seem the obvious choice. Now what if I told you Team B just lost its head coach, too?
That’s right, Team A is BYU and Team B is Ole Miss. Every bit of data here suggests the Cougars are, at worst, on even footing with the Rebels or ahead, and yet the committee has Ole Miss ranked five spots higher.
This is, arguably, the second year in a row in which BYU was clearly the most overlooked team in the country.
A week ago, Notre Dame was ranked one spot ahead of Alabama.
Then on Saturday, the Irish beat 4-8 Stanford by 29 (in a game they at one point led 42-3), while Alabama beat 5-7 Auburn by seven (in a game the Tigers had a chance to tie before fumbling in Tide territory late).
The committee looked at those two results and said, “You know what, we like what we saw from the Tide! Move ’em up!”
What could possibly be the logic for shifting opinions on these two teams? The only other team that jumped another winning team was Texas, and the Longhorns beat the No. 3 team in the country emphatically, not a second-tier team that fired its head coach a month ago.
Oh, and hasn’t the committee made it pretty clear losses are supposed to matter? Well, Notre Dame has two losses to teams ranked in the top 12. Alabama got beat by a Florida State team that finished 5-7.
Even by the eye test, this makes little sense. Notre Dame has proved to be one of the most complete, dominant teams in the country, with a secondary that’s near impossible to throw on, a rookie quarterback who has been nearly flawless and a running back who might well be the best player in the country. Alabama, on the other hand, has a one-note offense that can’t run the football.
We’re not believers in using advanced metrics as a ranking of accomplishment, but if this is simply a “who’s better” debate…
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SP+ ranks Notre Dame fifth and Alabama 12th.
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FPI ranks Notre Dame third and Alabama sixth.
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Sagarin ranks Notre Dame second and Alabama seventh.
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FEI ranks Notre Dame fourth and Alabama ninth.
So, again, we ask: Why would the committee possibly make this change?
We’d wager you know the answer. That sticky Canes vs. Irish head-to-head debate is a real headache for the committee. But if Notre Dame’s currently the last team in and something unexpected happens this weekend (hello, BYU over Texas Tech), then the committee can do as it did in 2014 and wash its hands of a tough choice and keep both Notre Dame and Miami out.
(It’s also interesting that a seven-point win over a team with a losing record is enough to jump Notre Dame, but a 31-point win over a ranked Pitt did nothing for Miami’s relative placement with the Irish despite — and we’re not sure anyone has mentioned this yet — a head-to-head win!)
But, speaking of Alabama…
4. Championship game participants
Step into the time machine with us for a moment, all the way back to championship week 2024. Here’s the state of play: Alabama, at 9-3, is ranked No. 11, the first team out of the playoff and also out of the SEC title game. Still, the Tide and the SEC hope there’s a pathway to salvation because SMU — 11-1 and ranked eighth — still has a game to play against Clemson in the ACC championship. If the Mustangs were to lose, couldn’t the committee then justify slotting SMU behind Alabama based on another data point, even though the Tide were simply sitting at home watching the action?
This was the case being made throughout the run up to the ACC championship last season. SMU, which should’ve been celebrating a miraculously successful first season in the Power 4, spent hours upon hours defending itself against criticism that it didn’t belong in the same conversation with big, bad Bama. Rhett Lashlee hinted he thought the committee’s vote was rigged, SMU players lamented their status on the chopping block despite a ranking that should’ve put them safely in the playoff field, and SEC commissioner Greg Sankey made the rounds arguing that Alabama’s (and Ole Miss’ and South Carolina’s) strength of schedule ought to put them ahead of SMU (and others).
OK, back to the present day. Here we are with Alabama sitting perilously on the dividing line between in the field and out — a week ago, it would have been the last team in, but of course the committee had other ideas this time around — with a game to play against Georgia in the SEC championship. An ACC team (Miami) sits just a tick behind the Tide in the rankings, but it will be off this week.
So, what happens if Alabama loses?
The comparison to last year’s SMU isn’t even a particularly fair one. The Mustangs were at No. 8 before the ACC title game. Alabama is at No. 9 (and probably should be a spot or two lower). SMU’s game against Clemson was new territory. A loss to Georgia will actually undermine Alabama’s best argument for inclusion — the three-point win in Athens in September. And while SMU did make the playoff field last year, a last-second loss on a 56-yard field goal still dropped the Mustangs from No. 8 to No. 10 in the rankings.
Play this scenario out now: Alabama, ranked at No. 9, plays a team that currently counts as the Tide’s best win. Imagine if Georgia wins the rematch and does so convincingly. The committee docked SMU two spots for a last-second loss, so surely it will do at least that much to Alabama for a more convincing defeat, right? And here’s the other thing: Even with the ACC title game loss last year, SMU was 11-2 — one less loss than Alabama had. A Tide loss in the SEC title game will be defeat No. 3 — one more than Notre Dame or Miami or (presumably) BYU.
It’s hard not to see a conspiracy here given the committee’s inexplicable flip-flop between Alabama and Notre Dame. It’s hard not to see brand bias in how the Tide’s championship week narrative diverges from SMU’s a year ago. It’s not at all hard to envision a scenario where Alabama loses to Georgia, gets in as the last team anyway, and it’s all explained away as a completely reasonable decision.
Well, the committee finally weighed in on more than one team outside the Power 4 — mostly because it was just impossible to find enough Power 4 teams worth ranking — and the news isn’t good for JMU. With the committee deciding already that North Texas is the higher ranked team, the Dukes’ only hope for the playoff would seem to be a Duke win in the ACC title game.
But what exactly has the committee seen to warrant that decision? Check out the numbers.
Best win (by average FPI, SP+ and Sagarin ranking)
JMU: No. 54 Old Dominion
UNT: No. 62 Washington State
Next best
JMU: No. 62 Washington State
UNT: No. 68 Navy
Loss
JMU: No. 29 Louisville
UNT: No. 24 USF
Wins vs. bowl-eligible
JMU: six
UNT: five
Strength of record
JMU: 18th
UNT: 22nd
FPI
JMU: 28th
UNT: 37th
There are certainly some check marks in North Texas’ favor, including a more impressive win over common opponent Washington State and a slightly better SP+ ranking, but on the whole, James Madison has had the tougher path here. That can change should UNT beat Tulane, but the committee should’ve waited for that to happen. Instead, it has made it clear JMU isn’t sniffing the playoff unless it comes at the expense of the ACC.
Also angry this week: Vanderbilt Commodores (10-2, No. 14); The ACC leadership who voted on its tiebreaker policies; Manny Diaz, who has to try to make a coherent argument for his five-loss Duke Blue Devils getting in ahead of a one-loss JMU; Every 8-4 team with a markedly better résumé than 9-3 Houston, which isn’t ranked this week; and Lane Kiffin’s yoga instructor and Juice Kiffin’s dog walker.
Welcome to the party, James Madison.
With the inclusion of JMU at No. 25 in the selection committee’s penultimate ranking — its first appearance all season — the possibility of the ACC being excluded from the playoff entirely just got real. Five-loss Duke is nowhere to be found in the ranking.
If Duke beats Virginia in the ACC championship game, it’s not guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. It could open the door for two Group of 5 conference champions to compete for a national title, and if the playoff were today, it would be Tulane out of the American and JMU from the Sun Belt. The ACC’s best team, Miami, is still on the outside.
At No. 12, the Hurricanes still need some help, but Alabama increased its chances of earning a spot as the SEC runner-up with a small promotion to No. 9. The conference championship games can still alter the picture, but hope on the bubble is dwindling.
Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are looking good after the committee’s fifth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Still in the mix. Teams that are Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the selection committee’s latest ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M. Right now, the Crimson Tide are the last SEC at-large team in the field. Alabama will face Georgia in the SEC championship game, but the committee could have a difficult decision if Alabama loses and finishes as a three-loss runner-up. The Tide would have defeated Georgia during the regular season but lost to the Bulldogs in the championship game. Even in moving up a spot to No. 9 this week — ahead of Notre Dame — it still seems as if they have a little more margin for error, but how the SEC title game unfolds could matter. And how far Alabama drops could determine if the SEC gets four or five teams in the field. Alabama could finish as the committee’s highest-ranked three-loss team and still be excluded from the playoff to make room for a conference champion — as they were last year.
A Georgia win should lock up a first-round bye and a top-four finish for the Bulldogs, while a loss should still put them in position to host a first-round game. Georgia beat Ole Miss, so it would be surprising to see the Bulldogs drop below the Rebels with a loss, even though the Bulldogs would have one more defeat. With a 35-10 drubbing of Texas also on its résumé, Georgia would still have a strong enough case to finish as the committee’s top two-loss team.
At No. 6, the selection committee moved the Rebels up one spot, so clearly the departure of coach Lane Kiffin to LSU didn’t hurt Ole Miss or its chances of hosting a first-round home game. The bigger reasoning was a promotion after winning the Egg Bowl combined with Texas A&M losing to Texas.
Still in the mix: Texas. The Longhorns moved up to No. 13, but the win against Texas A&M wasn’t enough to put them into the field after the fifth ranking. Texas is stuck behind Miami in part because of its loss to Florida, which Miami beat. Even if BYU and Alabama were knocked out with title game losses, that still probably won’t be enough for Texas to get into the field because the bracket has to make room for conference champions.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon. Both Indiana and Ohio State are CFP locks — even if they lose in the conference title game — and the runner-up will still have a strong case for a top-four finish and a first-round bye. The loser’s only loss will be to a top-two team, but it could fall behind Georgia in the top four if the Bulldogs win the SEC, and/or Texas Tech if it wins the Big 12.
The Ducks punctuated their résumé with a respectable win at Washington and should be secure in their playoff position, probably hosting a first-round game. Oregon received a small boost to No. 5 after Texas A&M lost to Texas.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders will play BYU in the Big 12 title game and have a great case to be in the playoff regardless of the outcome. It’s highly unlikely the selection committee would drop the Red Raiders out of the field as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up — especially considering they would have a regular-season win against the eventual conference champion. It’s also possible Texas Tech earns a first-round bye as a top-four seed if the Red Raiders win the Big 12. The committee moved them into the top four Tuesday night following Texas A&M’s loss during Rivalry Week.
Still in the mix: BYU. If BYU doesn’t win the Big 12, it’s unlikely to earn an at-large bid as the conference runner-up because the Cougars are already on the bubble and would be eliminated during the seeding process if the playoff were today. It’s not impossible, though. If Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up, it could at least open the door for debate. BYU would have lost to Texas Tech twice, and Alabama would have defeated Georgia, the eventual SEC champ once — and it was on the road. If BYU wins the Big 12, it’s the ideal scenario for the conference because it would have two teams in the playoff.
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, Utah, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: TBD. The ACC championship game will feature Virginia and Duke, and if five-loss Duke wins, it’s possible the ACC is excluded from the playoff since Duke is not part of the CFP rankings. If Virginia wins, it will represent the league in the playoff, as the two-loss Cavaliers are ranked in the top 20. And no, Miami did not play Duke or Virginia during the regular season. Duke lost to Tulane, which is the top Group of 5 playoff contender and will reach the playoff if it wins the American. Duke also lost to UConn. And it has already lost to Virginia 34-17 on Nov. 15.
Still in the mix: Miami. The Canes are still the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team, but they would be excluded if the playoff were today to make room for a conference champion. That means the ACC winner could knock the league’s best team out of the playoff. The committee isn’t ignoring Miami’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame, but it also isn’t comparing the Canes only to the Irish. Miami also needs to earn an edge against BYU — which the committee has deemed better than Miami to this point. Miami inched closer to Notre Dame because Bama moved up Tuesday, but with neither team playing in a conference championship game, would the committee flip them on Selection Day with a BYU loss?
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish have done everything right since their 0-2 start, running the table and doing it with consistent dominance regardless of opponent. At No.10, Notre Dame is in a precarious position. If BYU wins the Big 12 and enters the field, that could bump out the Irish. If BYU wins the Big 12, both BYU and Texas Tech are highly likely to make the playoff, which means someone currently in the top 10 would have to be excluded.
Group of 5
Would be in: Tulane. If the Green Wave win the American, they will represent the Group of 5 in the playoff. Tulane is currently the highest ranked Group of 5 team, but if North Texas beats Tulane on Friday, the Mean Green would be the most likely team to reach the CFP, given the overall strength of the American Conference this season.
Still in the mix: James Madison, North Texas. JMU (11-1) has clinched the East Division and a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship game, where it will face Troy (8-4) on Friday. North Texas will face Tulane in the American, and if it wins, it’s more likely to represent the Group of 5 in the playoff than JMU because of its schedule strength. JMU could still be considered, though, if Duke wins the ACC, giving the Group of 5 two playoff teams in the 12-team field. With JMU earning a spot in the top 25 this week, the situation became more probable.
Bracket
Based on the committee’s fifth ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Alabama/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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