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Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, arrived in Turkey on Friday for his fourth visit to the region since Hamas launched its attacks on Israel last year.

This flurry of visits reflects the growing international concern that the war in Gaza risks escalating into a wider regional conflict.

The US vetoed the most recent UN Security Council resolutions to bring the conflict to an end to provide time for Israel to achieve its political objectives.

The international community overwhelmingly believes that a two-state solution is the only way to bring peace to the region, but it has become increasingly apparent that such an end-state is not supported by Israel.

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Israel outlines Gaza post-war plan

Although Israel’s defence minister Yoav Gallant has started to elaborate on what the “day after” the war ends might look like, it is very vague, lacks detail, and appears to be an Israeli solution rather than an international, including Palestinian, collaboration.

And, although the US had hoped that the conflict might be drawing to an end by Christmas last year, Israel has reiterated the war will only end once Hamas has been destroyed.

The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) believes it has killed or captured 9,000 Hamas fighters out of a pre-war total thought to be around 30,000.

This leaves well over two-thirds of Hamas fighters still at large, which probably explains why Israel believes the conflict could go on for at least another year.

Israel says there are still around 130 Israeli hostages being held captive in Gaza, who were seized in the 7 October raids by Hamas, in which around 1,200 people were killed and 240 taken hostage.

Since then, more than 22,400 people have been killed by the Israeli response, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry.

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Doctor: ‘5%’ of Gaza people casualties

Risks of escalation in Lebanon, Yemen and the Red Sea

Hamas is no match for the IDF militarily, but if the conflict did escalate into a regional war, pressure would increase on the US to bring their influence to bear to bring the war to an end.

Iran funds Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels in Yemen, and it is this influence that is being exploited to ratchet up pressure on the US.

The Israeli border with Lebanon has seen regular exchanges of fire between the IDF and Hezbollah.

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Hezbollah leader warns Israel

However, following the claimed assassination of Hamas deputy military leader Saleh al Arouri on 2 January in southern Beirut, the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah vowed to avenge the attack.

Earlier on Saturday, Hezbollah fired 62 rockets at an Israeli observation point, prompting an Israeli fighter jet to respond with an attack on what the IDF claims was a Hezbollah command post.

In the Red Sea, Iranian-backed Houthis have been disrupting global shipping.

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Red Sea crisis hits high street brands

On Friday, huge crowds gathered in the Yemen capital Sana’a to mark the deaths of 10 Houthi fighters who were attacking a Maersk merchant ship when a US military helicopter intervened.

US forces stationed in the Middle East to prevent the resurgence of Islamic State have also come under more frequent attack – the US has 900 based in Syria and 2,500 in Iraq.

The conflict in Gaza has also distracted world attention, and support, for Ukraine in its war with Russia.

All this increases pressure on the US to find a way to bring the Israel-Hamas war to an end to stop the steady escalation in the region.

Blinken faces struggle to find a solution for all sides

The longer the war in Gaza continues, the greater the risk of a wider conflict.

But, it is not clear what the desired end-state is for Israel.

Rumours abound that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet cannot agree on a future governance model for the region, and if not a two-state solution, then what is the solution?

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with some members of his cabinet. Pic: AP
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with some members of his cabinet. Pic: AP

An Israeli-imposed model would be unlikely to secure international support, and thus lack credibility.

Nobody expects negotiations to be simple, but any agreement has to be mindful of Palestinian concerns, involve the international community, enable peaceful co-existence (eventually) for both Israelis and Palestinians, and create prosperity for Palestinians to replace decades of despair with hope.

This will not be simple to resolve, but failure means perpetuating the endless cycle of violence and devastation that has defined the region over the past eight decades.

A huge weight of responsibility lies on the shoulders of US Secretary of State Blinken.

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Russia hits Ukraine with massive missile and drone attack amid peace talks

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Russia hits Ukraine with massive missile and drone attack amid peace talks

Russia launched a massive missile and drone attack on Ukraine overnight, after US and Ukrainian officials said they would meet for a third day of talks aimed at bringing the war to an end.

The two sides said they had made progress on a security framework for post-war Ukraine, but that any “real progress toward any agreement” will depend “on Russia’s readiness to show serious commitment to long-term peace.”

Russia launched 653 drones and 51 missiles in its attack on Ukraine, triggering air raid alerts across the country, Ukraine’s air force said.

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Giving up territory ‘unacceptable’ – Ukraine’s military chief

Ukrainian forces shot down and neutralised 585 drones and 30 missiles, the air force said, adding that 29 locations were struck.

At least eight people were wounded in the attacks, Ukraine’s minister of internal affairs Ihor Klymenko said.

Russia conducted a “massive missile-drone attack” on power stations and other energy infrastructure in several regions, Ukraine’s national energy operator Ukrenergo said on Instagram.

Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant temporarily lost all off-site power overnight, the International Atomic Energy Agency said.

The plant is in an area that has been under Russian control since early in Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. It is not in service, but needs reliable power to cool its six shutdown reactors and spent fuel in order to avoid any catastrophic nuclear incidents.

Read more from Sky News:
Young Germans fear return to conscription
Giving up territory would be ‘unjust’, says Kyiv armed forces chief

Russia struke a train station in the city of Fastiv. Pics: Reuters
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Russia struke a train station in the city of Fastiv. Pics: Reuters

Zelenskyy condemns ‘meaningless’ strikes

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the strikes as “meaningless” from a military point of view.

He said energy facilities were the main targets, but a drone strike had “burned down” a train station in the city of Fastiv, in the Kyiv region.

“The Russians’ goal is to hurt millions of Ukrainians, and they have sunk so low that they are launching missiles at peaceful cities on St. Nicholas Day,” he said.

“That is why additional pressure is needed. Sanctions must work, and so must our air defence, which means we must continue to support those who defend our lives.”

Ukraine strikes oil refinery

Meanwhile, Russia’s defence ministry said its air defences had shot down 116 Ukrainian drones over Russian territory overnight.

The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said Ukrainian forces had struck Russia’s Ryazan Oil Refinery, while Russian Telegram news channel Astra shared footage appearing to show a fire breaking out and plumes of smoke rising above the refinery.

Over the last few months, Ukraine has used long-range drones to target Russian refineries in an attempt to deprive Moscow of the oil export revenue it needs to continue the war.

Meanwhile, Kyiv and its Western allies say Russia is trying to cripple Ukraine’s power grid and deny civilians access to heat, light and running water in winter, which Ukrainian officials call “weaponising” the cold.

On Monday, Mr Zelenskyy will meet Sir Keir Starmer in London to discuss the ongoing negotiations mediated by the US, along with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

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Gaza ceasefire negotiations at ‘critical moment’, says Qatar PM

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Gaza ceasefire negotiations at 'critical moment', says Qatar PM

Negotiations on a lasting ceasefire deal for Gaza are at a “critical moment”, the prime minister of Qatar, which has played a key role in brokering the deal, has said.

Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman said a definitive ceasefire could only happen with a full withdrawal of Israeli troops from the besieged enclave.

The first stage of a ceasefire deal was agreed in October, but violence in Gaza has not stopped. On Saturday alone, seven people were reportedly killed.

Palestinian local health authorities said the victims were from Beit Lahiya, Jabalia and Zeitoun in northern Gaza and included a 70-year-old woman who was killed by a drone strike.

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What is the UN-approved Trump peace plan for Gaza?

The Israeli military said that in two separate incidents on Saturday, forces deployed in northern Gaza behind the so-called yellow line of withdrawal agreed in the ceasefire had fired on Palestinian militants who crossed the line, killing three.

The military was unaware of any drone strike, a spokesperson said.

The long-sought ceasefire – and the second one after a first deal fell apart earlier this year – began on 11 October after Israel and Hamas agreed to the first phase of Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan.

More on Gaza

Despite accusations by both sides of violations, talks on the next phase of the ceasefire deal began almost two weeks ago, with Turkish, Qatari and Egyptian officials meeting in Cairo to discuss the second part of the agreement, including deploying a stabilisation force and body to govern Gaza and oversee reconstruction.

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Fragile Gaza ceasefire persists as anti-Hamas leader killed

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Gaza child has vital operation

“We are at a critical moment. It’s not yet there. So what we have just done is a pause,” PM al-Thani said during a panel discussion at the Doha Forum conference in Qatar.

“We cannot consider it yet a ceasefire. A ceasefire cannot be completed unless there is a full withdrawal of the Israeli forces – (until) there is stability back in Gaza, people can go in and out – which is not the case today.”

On Thursday, an Israeli delegation held talks in Cairo with mediators on the return of the body of the last hostage held in Gaza, which would complete an initial part of Mr Trump’s plan to bring an end to the two-year war.

Since the truce started, Hamas has returned all 20 living hostages and 27 bodies in exchange for around 2,000 Palestinian detainees and convicted prisoners.

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Paramilitary drone attack in southern Sudan kills at least 50 people, including 33 children

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Paramilitary drone attack in southern Sudan kills at least 50 people, including 33 children

At least 50 people, including 33 children, have been killed in southern Sudan after a drone attack by paramilitary forces hit a nursery in South Kordofan state.

Sudan Doctors’ Network says paramedics on the scene in the town of Kalogi were also targeted by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in a “second unexpected attack”.

Rights group Emergency Lawyers reported a “third civilian site” near the previous two attacks was also targeted.

The death toll is expected to be higher, but communication blackouts have made it difficult to confirm the full number of casualties.

Emergency Lawyers says the strikes are a “flagrant violation of international humanitarian law, including the protection of civilians, especially children, and vital civilian infrastructure.”

UNICEF has urged both parties to stop the attacks immediately and allow safe access for humanitarian aid.

“Killing children in their school is a horrific violation of children’s rights,” said UNICEF representative for Sudan Sheldon Yett.

“Children should never pay the price of conflict.”

Read more from Sky News
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The attack on the nursery is among the latest in the two-year conflict between the RSF and Sudan’s military, where the focus has recently shifted to the oil-rich Kordofan states.

A photo released by UNICEF shows displaced children and families from al-Fashir. (Mohammed Jammal/UNICEF via AP)
Image:
A photo released by UNICEF shows displaced children and families from al-Fashir. (Mohammed Jammal/UNICEF via AP)

Hundreds of civilians have been killed in the last few weeks as fighting shifted from Darfur, following the RSF’s violent takeover of the city of Al Fashir, which was marked with civilians being executed, rapes, sexual assaults and other atrocities.

Thousands managed to escape the violence, but thousands more are trapped or feared killed.

Grab from RSF social media channels in Al Fashir, Sudan
Image:
Grab from RSF social media channels in Al Fashir, Sudan

Meanwhile, Sudanese military aerial strikes last weekend killed at least 48 people, mostly civilians, in South Kordofan.

The RSF has also accused the military of carrying out a drone strike on the border with Chad, posting a video showing billowing black smoke.

The Associated Press has been unable to verify the video or whether there were any casualties, while Sudan’s military also hasn’t commented.

The RSF and the Sudanese military have been fighting for power over the country since 2023, which has seen more than 40,000 people killed, according to the World Health Organisation, although the real death toll is expected to be higher. 12 million people have been displaced.

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