Rishi Sunak kicked off the election year trying to sell to voters that his five pledges were on track, and they should vote for him to finish the job rather than “going back to square one”.
But look at his record, and it’s a pretty flimsy argument:
• NHS waiting lists are almost 500,000 higher than in January 2023;
• Boat crossings stood at just under 30,000 people in 2023, with 28,000 making the journey;
• National debt rose to 88.3% of GDP from 85.1% in December 2022. A promise he has delivered is halving inflation – although it’s true real household disposable income has continued to fall – while the economy looks on track to grow.
When he made those pledges, Mr Sunak told his audience “people don’t want politicians who promise the Earth and fail to deliver”.
But when it comes to the two key election issues beyond the economy – NHS waiting lists and stopping the boats – that is exactly where he looks like landing this side of an election.
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Sunak on Post Office scandal
A good number of his own MPs are fearful that failing to tackle illegal migration in particular will cost them their seats.
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That’s why the furore over whether the PM tried to water down the Rwanda scheme when he was chancellor matters.
As my colleague Rob Powell reported over the weekend, the leaked documents he saw showing the PM had doubts about the scheme when chancellor back in March 2002 raise concerns among MPs that his heart isn’t really in it.
That for all the rhetoric, this is a PM who isn’t really willing to do “whatever it takes” to put the policy into action.
Meanwhile, today I have been told by a Sunak campaign insider that when the PM was running to be Conservative leader in July 2022, he “wanted to scrap the scheme” and had “no serious interest” in illegal or legal migration “until he was persuaded otherwise during the campaign”.
When asked about this on a trip to the marginal seat of Hyndburn in Lancashire, the prime minister was prickly, saying it was “completely false” to suggest he had said during that leadership bid he was “going to scrap it”.
The eagle-eyed among you will note that what the PM denied was that he said he was going to scrap it, not that he wanted to.
And that matters, because it speaks to his commitment to getting Rwanda off the ground amid deep, irreconcilable divisions in his party over how far he should go to succeed.
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Leaks suggest PM had Rwanda doubts
For voters, it perhaps also leaves a bad taste in the mouth that this is a prime minister who isn’t really straight with them – not only when it comes to make big pledges and following them through, but about what he stands for as a PM.
He likes to call Sir Keir Starmer a flip-flopper who plays politics, but his approach to Rwanda suggests he perhaps does the same.
What Mr Sunak would say in reply is he is pushing ahead with the Rwanda bill and getting boat crossings down. He would probably ask people to judge him on his actions not words.
So far, the judgment on his first 15 months in the job has been dire, with the polls failing to budge whatever he does.
He will hope if his economic pledges come good, voters will follow. But he doesn’t have much time left to turn the tide.
In an interview with Cointelegraph, economist Peter Schiff warns that Bitcoin’s gains are built on political and Wall Street support that may not last.
Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out breaking her manifesto pledge not to raise certain taxes, as she lays the groundwork ahead of the budget later this month.
Asked directly by our political editor Beth Rigby if she stands by her promises not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, the chancellor declined to do so.
She told Rigby: “Your viewers can see the challenges that we face, the challenges that are on [sic] a global nature. And they can also see the challenges in the long-term performance of our economy.”
She went on: “As chancellor, I have to face the world as it is, not the world as I want it to be. And when challenges come our way, the only question is how to respond to them, not whether to respond or not.
“As I respond at the budget on 26 November, my focus will be on getting NHS waiting lists down, getting the cost of living down and also getting the national debt down.”
‘Each of us must do our bit’
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Ms Reeves’s comments to Rigby came after a highly unusual pre-budget speech in Downing Street in which she set out the scale of the international and domestic “challenges” facing the government.
What did Labour promise in their manifesto?
Rachel Reeves has refused to say whether she will hike taxes, but what exactly was her manifesto commitment last year?
She said: “We will ensure taxes on working people are kept as low as possible.
“Labour will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase national insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of income tax, or VAT.”
She also hinted at tax rises, saying: “If we are to build the future of Britain together, each of us must do our bit for the security of our country and the brightness of its future.”
Despite her promise that last year’s budget – which was the biggest tax-raising fiscal event since 1993 – was a “once in a parliament event,” the chancellor said that in the past year, “the world has thrown even more challenges our way,” pointing to “the continual threat of tariffs” from the United States, inflation that has been “too slow to come down,” “volatile” supply chains leading to higher prices, and the high cost of government borrowing.
She also put the blame squarely on previous Tory governments, accusing them of “years of economic mismanagement” that has “limited our country’s potential,” and said past administrations prioritised “political convenience” over “economic imperative”.
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Sky’s Beth Rigby said there will be ‘almighty backlash’ after budget, as chancellor failed to rule out breaking tax pledges.
Ms Reeves painted a picture of devastation following the years of austerity in the wake of the financial crisis, “instability and indecision” after that, and then the consequences of what she called “a rushed and ill-conceived Brexit”.
“This isn’t about re-litigating old choices – it’s about being honest with the people, about the consequences that those choices have had,” she said.
‘I don’t expect anyone to be satisfied with growth so far’
The chancellor defended her personal record in office so far, saying interest rates and NHS waiting lists have fallen, while investment in the UK is rising, and added: “Our growth was the fastest in the G7 in the first half of this year. I don’t expect anyone to be satisfied with growth of 1%. I am not, and I know that there is more to do.”
Amid that backdrop, Ms Reeves set out her three priorities for the budget: “Protecting our NHS, reducing our national debt, and improving the cost of living.”
Cutting inflation will also be a key aim in her announcements later this month, and “creating the conditions that [see] interest rate cuts to support economic growth and improve the cost of living”.
She rejected calls from some Labour MPs to relax her fiscal rules, reiterating that they are “ironclad,” and arguing that the national debt – which stands at £2.6trn, or 94% of GDP – must come down in order to reduce the cost of government borrowing and spend less public money on interest payments to invest in “the public services essential to both a decent society and a strong economy”.
She also put them on notice that cuts to welfare remain on the government’s agenda, despite its humiliating U-turn on cuts to personal independence payments for disabled people earlier this year, saying: “There is nothing progressive about refusing to reform a system that is leaving one in eight young people out of education or employment.”
Image: Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered a highly unusual pre-budget speech from Downing Street. Pic: PA
And the chancellor had a few words for her political opponents, saying the Tories’ plan for £47bn in cuts would have “devastating consequences for our public services,” and mocked the Reform UK leadership of Kent County Council for exploring local tax rises instead of cuts, as promised.
Concluding her speech, Ms Reeves vowed not to “repeat those mistakes” of the past by backtracking on investments, and said: “We were elected to break with the cycle of decline, and this government is determined to see that through.”
‘Reeves made all the wrong choices’
In response to her speech, Conservative shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride wrote on X that “all she’s done is confirm the fears of households and businesses – that tax rises are coming”.
He wrote: “The chancellor claims she fixed the public finances last year. If that was true, she would not be rolling the pitch for more tax rises and broken promises. The reality is, she fiddled the fiscal rules so she could borrow hundreds of billions more.
“Every time the numbers don’t add up, Reeves blames someone else. But this is about choices – and she made all the wrong ones. If Rachel Reeves had the backbone to get control of government spending – including the welfare bill – she wouldn’t need to raise taxes.”