2023 was world’s hottest year on record – and 2024 could be worse

Published

1 year ago

January 9, 2024

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Last year was the hottest on record, new data has confirmed, as scientists warn 2024 could be worse.

The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service today confirmed 2023 was indeed the warmest year since 1850 – a trend widely predicted before the year was out because it had been so exceptionally hot.

The global average air surface temperature in 2023 was 14.98C – beating the previous record set in 2016 by a “large margin” of 0.17C.

Copernicus found 2023 was on average 1.48C warmer than levels before industrial times, when humans began burning fossil fuels at scale.

Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus, called it a “dramatic testimony of how far we now are from the climate in which our civilisation developed”.

But Met Office scientists believe this record could be broken again very soon, with their forecasts suggesting 2024 could be even hotter, bringing more of the extreme weather suffered last year.

Copernicus said it is “likely” the 12-month period ending in January or February this year will exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

The smashed record last year is a sign the world is inching closer to reaching 1.5C of warming – the level countries agreed to aim for under the Paris Agreement, and after which point climate impacts become even harder to adapt to.

Previous reports had already blamed the rising heat for worsening the wildfires in eastern Canada, drought in the Horn of Africa and intense rain and heatwaves in the UK.

For the UK, “flooding from greater storm intensity is the main impact from hotter temperatures to worry about”, said Professor Piers Forster, interim chair of the UK’s Climate Change Committee (CCC) and physical climate change professor.

The country is also “not immune to more severe impacts around the world, especially those that affect food supplies, migration, conflict, energy security and trade,” he said.

“We cannot let these impacts become the new normal, and nor do we have to,” he added.

We can also limit future warming by “acting urgently to reduce emissions”, added Prof Forster.

Cutting down on coal and limiting methane from fossil fuels and farming could halve the rate of global warming, he said.

Why was 2023 so hot?

The Met Office’s Professor Richard Betts said humans are rapidly heating the planet “by building up greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from fossil fuel burning and deforestation”.

Last year also saw a transition to a warming weather pattern called El Nino, when heat from the ocean, particularly the central-east equatorial Pacific, releases into the atmosphere.

His colleague Dr Nick Dunstone said: “We expect the strong El Nino in the Pacific to impact the global temperature through 2024. For this reason we are forecasting 2024 to be another record-breaking year, with the possibility of temporarily exceeding 1.5C for the first time.”

Last year was record-breakingly warm in the oceans and polar regions, too.

Copernicus said Antarctic sea ice reached record lows for the time of year in eight of the 12 months, while global average sea surface temperatures reached record levels for the time of year from April until the end of the year.

The ‘good news’, solutions and a warning

Climate scientists said acting quickly would help curb further warming.

Dr Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London, said: “Every tenth of a degree matters.

“Even if we end up at 1.6C instead [of 1.5C], it will be so much better than giving up and not trying, and ending up close to 3C, which is where current policies would bring us to.”

Professor John Marsham, an expert in atmospheric science at Leeds University, said: “We desperately need to rapidly cut fossil fuel use and reach net zero to preserve the liveable climate that we all depend on.

“The good news is not only do the public support more action on climate, but that it is often win-win, e.g. UK renewables are both cheap and improve energy security.”

Ed Hawkins, professor of climate science at the University of Reading, said the “devastating extreme weather events of 2023 are a warning that such events will continue to get worse until we transition away from fossil fuels and reach net zero emissions”.

He added: “It’s a warning that we will continue to suffer the consequences of our inactions today for generations. A warning that we will regret not acting faster when the technologies to reduce emissions are so readily available.”

World

Pakistan launches ‘military operation’ against India

Published

4 hours ago

May 10, 2025

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Pakistan launches 'military operation' against India

Pakistan has launched attacks on “multiple targets” across India, according to the media wing of Pakistan’s military.

Pakistan said in a statement that retaliatory attacks are underway in response to what it called “continuous provocation” by India, which fired missiles at three air bases inside Pakistan.

“Multiple targets in this operation are being engaged all across India,” the statement from Pakistan Armed Forces (PAF) said.

Pakistan’s military said it used medium-range Fateh missiles to strike more than 25 military sites, including airbases and weapons depots in the Indian states of Gujarat, Punjab and Rajasthan, as well as locations in India-administered Kashmir.

Pakistan’s military posted footage on X showing missiles being fired from what appeared to be a mobile launcher.

The AP news agency also said loud explosions have been heard in India-administered Kashmir, in the disputed region’s two big cities of Srinagar and Jammu, and the garrison town of Udhampur.

Meanwhile, an Indian military source told Reuters that India has launched air operations in Pakistan, although no further details were given.

The operations mark the latest escalation in a conflict between the two nuclear-armed rivals, triggered by a deadly attack last month in India-administered Kashmir.

Most of the 26 civilians killed were Hindu Indian tourists. India blames Pakistan for backing the assault, an accusation Islamabad rejects.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has called a meeting of the National Command Authority, the body which takes security decisions, including those related to the country’s nuclear arsenal.

State-run Pakistan television said three air bases were struck by India on Friday, although Pakistan insisted most of the missiles had been intercepted.

Despite the military offensive, PAF also posted a message on X in what appeared to represent an opportunity to de-escalate the situation.

“Now that a response has been given we hope the neighbour [India] will move to dialogue and diplomacy like Civilized Nations,” it said.

In recent days, both countries have launched a series of missile and drone strikes, although the scale and impact have been consistently questioned by each other.

On Wednesday, India conducted airstrikes on several sites in Pakistani territory. Pakistan said it shot down five Indian fighter jets.

On Thursday, India claimed to have repelled drone and missile attacks at military targets in more than a dozen cities and towns, including Jammu in India-administered Kashmir. Meanwhile, India claimed it struck Pakistan’s air defence systems and radars close to the city of Lahore.

The Indian army said on Friday that Pakistan fired about 300 to 400 drones, targeting military installations along the western borders – a claim strongly denied by Pakistan.

The G7 group of advanced economies, which includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the US and Britain, urged maximum restraint from both India and Pakistan.

“We call for immediate de-escalation and encourage both countries to engage in direct dialogue towards a peaceful outcome,” a statement issued on Friday said.

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World

European leaders to meet in Ukraine for ‘coalition of the willing’ talks – and issue call to Russia

Published

4 hours ago

May 10, 2025

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European leaders to meet in Ukraine for 'coalition of the willing' talks - and issue call to Russia

Sir Keir Starmer will join other European leaders in Kyiv on Saturday for talks on the “coalition of the willing”.

The prime minister is attending the event alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, recently-elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

It will be the first time the leaders of the four countries will travel to Ukraine at the same time – on board a train to Kyiv – with their meeting hosted by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Follow latest updates on the Ukraine war

Military officers from around 30 countries have been involved in drawing up plans for the coalition, which would provide a peacekeeping force in the event of a ceasefire being agreed between Russia and Ukraine.

Ahead of the meeting on Saturday, Sir Keir, Mr Macron, Mr Tusk and Mr Merz released a joint statement voicing support for Ukraine and calling on Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire.

“We reiterate our backing for President Trump’s calls for a peace deal and call on Russia to stop obstructing efforts to secure an enduring peace,” they said.

“Alongside the US, we call on Russia to agree a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire to create the space for talks on a just and lasting peace.”

The leaders said they were “ready to support peace talks as soon as possible”.

But they warned that they would continue to “ratchet up pressure on Russia’s war machine” until Moscow agrees to a lasting ceasefire.

“We are clear the bloodshed must end, Russia must stop its illegal invasion, and Ukraine must be able to prosper as a safe, secure and sovereign nation within its internationally recognised borders for generations to come,” their statement added.

“We will continue to increase our support for Ukraine.”

The European leaders are set to visit the Maidan, a central square in Ukraine’s capital where flags represent those who died in the war.

They are also expected to host a virtual meeting for other leaders in the “coalition of the willing” to update them on progress towards a peacekeeping force.

This force “would help regenerate Ukraine’s armed forces after any peace deal and strengthen confidence in any future peace”, according to Number 10.

World

Ten explosions near international airport in India-administered part of Kashmir, officials say

Published

10 hours ago

May 9, 2025

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Ten explosions have been heard near Srinagar International Airport in India-administered parts of Kashmir, officials have told Reuters news agency.

The blasts followed blackouts caused by multiple projectiles, which were seen in the sky above the city of Jammu earlier on Friday.

Explosions were also heard in the Sikh holy city of Amritsar, in the neighbouring Punjab state, according to Reuters.

An Indian military official told the agency that “drones have been sighted” and “they are being engaged”.

It comes as tensions between India and Pakistan across the line of control around the region of Kashmir have boiled over this week, leading to fears of a wider conflict.

On Wednesday morning, India carried out missile strikes in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered parts of the disputed region.

The retaliation came weeks after 26 people, mainly Indian tourists, were shot dead by gunmen in an India-administered part of Kashmir last month.

The government in India said it hit nine “terrorist infrastructure” sites, while Pakistan said it was not involved in the April attack and the sites were not militant bases.

Around 48 people have been killed since Wednesday, according to casualty estimates on both sides – which have not been independently verified.

India also suspended its top cricket tournament, the Indian Premier League, as a result of rising tensions, while the Pakistan Super League moved the remainder of its season to the United Arab Emirates.

Meanwhile, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a conference on Friday that the US is in constant contact with both India and Pakistan.