No small boats have crossed the Channel for 25 days – the longest break since 2020
No migrants have been detected crossing the English Channel in the past 25 days – the longest break since February 2020.
Home Office figures show that the last boat to arrive on British shores was a single vessel carrying 55 people on 16 December.
The day before, seven boats with a total of 292 migrants were found.
By this time last year, 44 migrants on small boats had already been detected. The gap marks the longest break in arrivals since a period spanning February and March 2020.
The pause in attempts to cross to British shores comes as cold and snowy weather has battered many parts of the UK.
Storm Henk, which arrived on 2 January, saw 94mph winds pummel South Wales and southern areas of England.
Amid the adverse weather, Condor Ferries – which operates between Poole, Portsmouth, the Channel Islands and France – cancelled services, while ferry company DFDS called off some Dover-Calais and Dover-Dunkirk sailings.
Storm Henk’s arrival came less than a week after Storm Gerrit, which forced Condor to cancel all passenger sailings for three days.
The 25-day period of no small boats includes Christmas 2023 – which was the first without any migrant crossings in five years.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has made stopping the boats a priority, but he was dealt a blow last week when leaked figures revealed the number of migrants crossing the Channel could rise to 35,000 this year.
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The leaked Border Force documents revealed that 35,000 crossings is the medium-case scenario considered most likely, while the highest projection is 50,000.
A source close to James Cleverly, the home secretary, tried to downplay the projections.
This leak was swiftly followed by the release of a French report that claimed the UK isn’t cooperating with efforts to stop the boats.
The document, published by the French Court of Accounts, said “that the British don’t provide usable information on the departures of small boats, and give very general, first-level information that has not been counter-checked”.
The Home Office claimed the report “is based on out-of-date information and does not accurately reflect our current working relationship” with France.
Many Labour MPs have been left shellshocked after the chaotic political self-sabotage of the past week.
Bafflement, anger, disappointment, and sheer frustration are all on relatively open display at the circular firing squad which seems to have surrounded the prime minister.
The botched effort to flush out backroom plotters and force Wes Streeting to declare his loyalty ahead of the budget has instead led even previously loyal Starmerites to predict the PM could be forced out of office before the local elections in May.
“We have so many councillors coming up for election across the country,” one says, “and at the moment it looks like they’re going to be wiped out. That’s our base – we just can’t afford to lose them. I like Keir [Starmer] but there’s only a limited window left to turn things around. There’s a real question of urgency.”
Another criticised a “boys club” at No 10 who they claimed have “undermined” the prime minister and “forgotten they’re meant to be serving the British people.”
There’s clearly widespread muttering about what to do next – and even a degree of enviousness at the lack of a regicidal 1922 committee mechanism, as enjoyed by the Tories.
“Leadership speculation is destabilising,” one said. “But there’s really no obvious strategy. Andy Burnham isn’t even an MP. You’d need a stalking horse candidate and we don’t have one. There’s no 1922. It’s very messy.”
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Starmer’s faithfuls are ‘losing faith’
Others are gunning for the chancellor after months of careful pitch-rolling for manifesto-breaching tax rises in the budget were ripped up overnight.
“Her career is toast,” one told me. “Rachel has just lost all credibility. She screwed up on the manifesto. She screwed up on the last two fiscal events, costing the party huge amounts of support and leaving the economy stagnating.
“Having now walked everyone up the mountain of tax rises and made us vote to support them on the opposition day debate two days ago, she’s now worried her job is at risk and has bottled it.
“Talk to any major business or investor and they are holding off investing in the UK until it is clear what the UK’s tax policy is going to be, putting us in a situation where the chancellor is going to have to go through this all over again in six months – which just means no real economic growth for another six months.”
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Why is the economy flatlining?
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After less than 18 months in office, the government is stuck in a political morass largely of its own making.
Treasury sources have belatedly argued that the chancellor’s pre-budget change of heart on income tax is down to better-than-expected economic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility.
That should be a cause of celebration. The question is whether she and the PM are now too damaged to make that case to the country – and rescue their benighted prospects.
People granted asylum in the UK will only be allowed to stay in the country temporarily, in sweeping reforms expected to be announced on Monday.
Modelled on the Danish system, the aim is to make the UK less attractive for illegal immigrants and make it easier to deport them.
Planned changes mean that refugee status will become temporary and subject to regular review, with refugees removed as soon as their home countries are deemed safe.
Under current UK rules, those granted refugee status have it for five years and can then apply for indefinite leave to remain and get on a route to citizenship.
In a social media video trailing her announcement, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said: “We will always be a country that gives sanctuary to people who are fleeing danger, but we must restore order and control.”
She called it “the most significant changes to our asylum system in modern times”.
An ally of the home secretary said: “Today, becoming a refugee equals a lifetime of protection in Britain.
“Mahmood will change that, making refugee status temporary and subject to regular review. The moment your home country is safe to return to, you will be removed.
“While this might seem like a small technical shift, this new settlement marks the most significant shift in the treatment of refugees since the Second World War.”
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UK looks to Denmark for tougher immigration policy
Time and money ‘wasted’ on Rwanda scheme
While the number of asylum claims across Europe has fallen, numbers in Britain have risen.
Ms Mahmood said the previous government had had “years to tackle this problem” but had “wasted” time and money on the £700m Rwanda scheme.
Read more: Could Danish model save Labour’s bacon?
Some 39,075 people have arrived in the UK after making the journey across the Channel so far this year, according to the latest Home Office figures.
That is an increase of 19% on the same point in 2024 and up 43% on 2023, but remains 5% lower than at the equivalent point in 2022, which remains the peak year for crossings.
Other changes expected to be announced on Monday include requiring judges to prioritise public safety over migrants’ rights to a family life, or the risk that they will face “inhuman” treatment if returned to their home country, the Telegraph has reported.
Denmark’s tighter rules on family reunions are also being looked at.
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Pic: Reuters
Changes will prevent refugees from ‘integrating into British life’
While some research has suggested that deterrence policies have little impact on asylum seekers’ choice of destination, but a 2017 study said Denmark’s “negative nation branding” had proved effective in limiting asylum applications.
The number of successful asylum claims has fallen to a 40-year low in Denmark, with 95% of failed asylum seekers deported from the country.
But some believe the changes could damage future generations seeking a haven from war, persecution and violence.
Enver Solomon, chief executive of Refugee Council, said: “These sweeping changes will not deter people from making dangerous crossings, but they will unfairly prevent men, women and children from putting down roots and integrating into British life.
“Refugee status represents safety from the conflict and persecution that people have fled.
“When refugees are not stuck in limbo, they feel a greater sense of belonging, as full members of their new communities with a stable future for themselves, their children and generations to come.
“We urge the government to rethink these highly impractical plans, which will also add to the backlog and chaos that the Home Office is tackling.
“Instead, they should ensure that refugees who work hard and contribute to Britain can build secure, settled lives and give back to their communities.”
Shabana Mahmood will be appearing on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips from 8.30am tomorrow.
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