Brexit has cost the UK £140bn so far, according to new analysis, and could see the nation £311bn worse off by the middle of the next decade, according to a new report.
Economists and analysts at Cambridge Econometrics – commissioned by London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan – have modelled how the UK’s economy would have acted were it still in the European Union.
This was compared to data published by the Office for Budget of Responsibility in March 2023, and forecasts based on those data. Those official forecasts have since been downgraded as of November last year.
The headline findings from the report include lower growth, lower employment, strong negative impacts on investment, imports falling more than exports, and a growing gap between London and the rest of the UK.
The report analysed the gross value added – GVA – which is a measure of how much value is added by an area through the production of goods and the actions of services.
Cambridge Econometrics says it found UK GVA was £2,207bn in 2023 under current circumstances, and will be £2,771bn by 2035.
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But without Brexit, the organisation states the UK would have had a GVA of £2,347bn in 2023, and it would have reached £3,082bn by 2035.
This equates to GVA being 6% lower in 2023 than it would have been without Brexit, and 10.1% lower in 2035.
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They found that, by 2035, the UK is anticipated to have three million fewer jobs, 32% lower investment, 5% lower exports and 16% lower imports, than it would have had if the UK had not left the EU.
Cambridge Econometrics also found Brexit is expected to cause the productivity gap between London and the rest of the UK to widen further.
The scenario which included the UK in the EU used an E3ME model, which is used transnationally for forecasting. It includes data from UN, OECD, World Bank, IMF, the ONS and Eurostat.
The report says it tried to “isolate and subtract” the “Brexit effect” from factors like trade and investment in the main scenario – which it says is “effectively modelling a scenario in which other factors (eg, the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine) took place but Brexit did not”.
Image: Mr Khan will use the study to argue for a closer relationship with the EU
Shyamoli Patel, principal economist at Cambridge Econometrics, said: “Our study reveals that London’s economy would have grown faster if Brexit hadn’t taken place. Looking ahead, we project that Brexit will continue to have an impact on the UK and London economies in the medium term.”
Mr Khan is set to use the report to make the case for a closer relationship with Europe on Thursday evening at Mansion House.
The London mayor will say that it is “now obvious that Brexit isn’t working” – blaming the “hard-line Brexit we’ve ended up with”.
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Mr Khan will add: “The cost of Brexit crisis can only be solved if we take a mature approach and if we are open to improving our trading arrangements with our European neighbours.
“I agree with the shadow foreign secretary [David Lammy], who has said we urgently need to build a closer relationship with the EU.”
With a general election looming, Brexit will be an issue used to attack Labour and its leader Sir Keir Starmer, who backed a second referendum.
Sir Keir Starmer has backed his under-fire safeguarding minister to continue leading the government’s efforts to set up a national inquiry into grooming gangs after four survivors demanded her resignation.
The prime minister said on Thursday that Jess Phillips has “devoted vast parts of her life and career” to tackling violence against women and girls, and has “confidence in her”, despite the turmoil that has beset the process.
All four survivors who quit the government’s grooming gangs inquiry panel said they will consider returning to the process if Ms Phillips resigns.
However, five other survivors on the panel have written to Sir Keir to say they will only stay if Ms Phillips remains.
They said she had remained impartial, had listened to feedback and her previous experience to reduce violence against women and girls and her “clear passion and commitment is important to us”.
In contrast to the four who have quit, who accused Ms Phillips of trying to expand the inquiry’s scope beyond grooming gangs, the five said it needs to be widened to focus on child sexual exploitation as a whole to ensure survivors who do not fit “the generalised stereotype” are not excluded.
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In response to the demand for Ms Phillips to quit, Sir Keir said: “The safeguarding minister has huge experience in issues relating to violence against women and girls. She’s devoted vast parts of her life and career to that, and so I do have confidence in her and Louise Casey in leading this project.”
Speaking to ITV Meridian, the prime minister also sought to reassure the victims of grooming, saying: “It’s really important that the national inquiry gets to the truth. All survivors deserve answers to their questions.”
“It is very important that I say to all survivors that I give my personal assurance that this inquiry will go wherever it needs to go, the scope will not be changed.”
It is understood Downing Street has reached out to the four survivors who quit the government’s process this week.
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2:14
Starmer defended Phillips at PMQs on Wednesday
Samantha, one of the survivors who wrote the letter saying they would only stay if Ms Phillips remains, told Sky News: “We shouldn’t be falling apart right now, we should be working together.
“Jess has only ever been fair and honest with us, she’s told us as much as she possibly can within her capacity.
“She’s provided a lot of support over the phone and in-person to a lot of us survivors behind the scenes, which people don’t see about Jess.
“So I do still want her to be part of this inquiry up until the end.”
A government source told Sky News the government will be talking to all survivors on the panel about their concerns and opinions on the type of person they want to chair the inquiry, after the leading candidate dropped out following concerns from survivors over his background as a police officer.
The government will move as fast as possible, they said, but it will likely take months to appoint the right chair.
Why four survivors quit the inquiry
The four women who resigned this week expressed concerns about how the process of selecting a chair and setting the terms of reference of the national inquiry into grooming gangs is being run.
They wrote on Wednesday to Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, calling for Ms Phillips to step down and all survivors to be consulted on appointing a senior judge as chair with no major conflicts of interest.
Ms Phillips told parliament on Tuesday that suggestions that the scope of the inquiry was to be expanded from just grooming gangs were “categorically untrue”.
But leaked consultation documents and texts between the safeguarding minister and survivor Fiona Goddard show the survivors’ concerns that the scope would be expanded were valid.
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10:14
Shadow Housing Secretary Sir James Cleverly told Sky News that he can’t see how Jess Phillips can stay in post
The survivors’ letter says: “Being publicly contradicted and dismissed by a government minister when you are a survivor telling the truth takes you right back to that feeling of not being believed all over again.
“It is a betrayal that has destroyed what little trust remained.”
They have demanded that the scope of the inquiry remain “laser-focused” on grooming gangs and called for victims to be free to speak to support networks without fear of reprisal.
Image: Fiona Goddard and Kemi Badenoch speaking during a press conference earlier this year
Pic PA
The letter to Ms Mahmood says: “Her [Ms Phillips’] conduct over the last week has shown she is unfit to oversee a process that requires survivors to trust the government. Her departure would signal you are serious about accountability and changing direction.”
The survivors describe their demands as “the absolute bare minimum for survivors to trust that this inquiry will be different from every other process that has let us down”.
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7:02
Minister for Children and Families, Josh MacAlister told Sky News Jess Phillips will not be resigning
Frontrunner quits over ‘toxicity’
The letter was sent hours after one of the frontrunners to become chair of the inquiry withdrew, blaming “vested interests” and “political opportunism and point-scoring”.
Ex-police chief and child protection specialist Jim Gamble told the home secretary in a letter there was a “highly charged and toxic environment” around the appointment process and victims “deserve better”.
The other, Annie Hudson, a former social worker, said earlier this week she no longer wanted to be considered after intense media coverage.
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18:19
‘Everyone should park their interests’
The prime minister launched the inquiry into grooming gangs after an audit by Baroness Louise Casey showed the scale of the problem.
It is understood that the government is exploring a range of other candidates and will provide an update in due course.
A Home Office spokesperson said: “The grooming gang scandal was one of the darkest moments in this country’s history.
“That is why this government is committed to a full, statutory, national inquiry to uncover the truth. It is the very least that the victims of these hideous crimes deserve.
“We are disappointed that candidates to chair that inquiry have withdrawn. This is an extremely sensitive topic, and we have to take the time to appoint the best person suitable for the role.
“The home secretary has been clear – there will be no hiding place for those who abused the most vulnerable in our society.”