Brexit has cost the UK £140bn so far, according to new analysis, and could see the nation £311bn worse off by the middle of the next decade, according to a new report.
Economists and analysts at Cambridge Econometrics – commissioned by London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan – have modelled how the UK’s economy would have acted were it still in the European Union.
This was compared to data published by the Office for Budget of Responsibility in March 2023, and forecasts based on those data. Those official forecasts have since been downgraded as of November last year.
The headline findings from the report include lower growth, lower employment, strong negative impacts on investment, imports falling more than exports, and a growing gap between London and the rest of the UK.
The report analysed the gross value added – GVA – which is a measure of how much value is added by an area through the production of goods and the actions of services.
Cambridge Econometrics says it found UK GVA was £2,207bn in 2023 under current circumstances, and will be £2,771bn by 2035.
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But without Brexit, the organisation states the UK would have had a GVA of £2,347bn in 2023, and it would have reached £3,082bn by 2035.
This equates to GVA being 6% lower in 2023 than it would have been without Brexit, and 10.1% lower in 2035.
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They found that, by 2035, the UK is anticipated to have three million fewer jobs, 32% lower investment, 5% lower exports and 16% lower imports, than it would have had if the UK had not left the EU.
Cambridge Econometrics also found Brexit is expected to cause the productivity gap between London and the rest of the UK to widen further.
The scenario which included the UK in the EU used an E3ME model, which is used transnationally for forecasting. It includes data from UN, OECD, World Bank, IMF, the ONS and Eurostat.
The report says it tried to “isolate and subtract” the “Brexit effect” from factors like trade and investment in the main scenario – which it says is “effectively modelling a scenario in which other factors (eg, the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine) took place but Brexit did not”.
Image: Mr Khan will use the study to argue for a closer relationship with the EU
Shyamoli Patel, principal economist at Cambridge Econometrics, said: “Our study reveals that London’s economy would have grown faster if Brexit hadn’t taken place. Looking ahead, we project that Brexit will continue to have an impact on the UK and London economies in the medium term.”
Mr Khan is set to use the report to make the case for a closer relationship with Europe on Thursday evening at Mansion House.
The London mayor will say that it is “now obvious that Brexit isn’t working” – blaming the “hard-line Brexit we’ve ended up with”.
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Mr Khan will add: “The cost of Brexit crisis can only be solved if we take a mature approach and if we are open to improving our trading arrangements with our European neighbours.
“I agree with the shadow foreign secretary [David Lammy], who has said we urgently need to build a closer relationship with the EU.”
With a general election looming, Brexit will be an issue used to attack Labour and its leader Sir Keir Starmer, who backed a second referendum.
A coroner has concluded that an 11-year-old girl was unlawfully killed after she drowned at a waterpark in Berkshire in 2022.
Kyra Hill died after getting into difficulty in a designated swimming area at Liquid Leisure near Windsor while attending a birthday party on 6 August 2022.
Senior coroner Heidi Connor ruled there were gross breaches of health and safety measures at the park which contributed to her death.
The breaches related to the depth and visibility of the water and the absence of an emergency plan and risk assessment, she found.
An inquest at Berkshire Coroner’s Court heard how the schoolgirl was found more than an hour after emergency services were alerted and was taken to hospital, where she was pronounced dead.
Image: Liquid Leisure. Pic: PA
The inquest heard there were no signs warning of deep water at the leisure park.
Despite various sharp drops of up to 4.5m (14.7ft) within the swimming zone, the only signs relating to depth said “danger shallow water”.
The lake where Kyra was seen going under was 2.68m (8.8ft) deep, a report carried out after the incident found.
A 17-year-old lifeguard managed to reach the point where Kyra disappeared but staff at the centre are only qualified to perform “surface-water rescues” – not underwater ones.
The inquest heard evidence of how there was a 10-minute gap between the first and second searches for the youngster in that part of the lake.
Although a manager attended rapidly, 37 minutes passed between Kyra struggling and 999 being called.
The frantic search was likened to a “nightmare” by a mother attending the birthday party, while a police officer described it as a “chaotic scene” due to “conflicting” information being fed to the emergency crews.
The diver who eventually found Kyra told the inquest the lake had “almost zero visibility”.
Ms Connor noted parents and carers were not advised to attend with children in a ratio of one to four, and young children were permitted to swim without buoyancy aids.
There was also no emergency plan or risk assessment that took those factors into account, and no control measures were identified and put in place to “take account of these clear risks”, she said.
A post-mortem examination confirmed Kyra’s cause of death as “drowning”.
Giving her conclusions, Ms Connor said: “Members of the family, at no point have I forgotten that this was about your 11-year-old, Kyra, and I am so very sorry that you are here today.
“It must have been incredibly difficult to sit in court and hear some of the evidence that we’ve heard. I offer all of you my heartfelt condolences.”
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August 2022: ‘This has ripped my family to pieces’
Speaking outside court on Tuesday, Leonard Hill said: “Summer should be a time of joy in creating happy memories with family and friends.
“It should never end in tragedy. It should never mark the day we mourn our children’s lives, lost in places where they should have been safe.
“The terrible reality is that without urgent reform, more families will face these devastating goodbyes.”
Mr Hill described Kyra’s life as a “shining example of resilience and strength”.
The youngster was a Manchester United fan and dreamed of becoming a professional footballer, with a back-up plan to pursue law.
Mr Hill added: “Her memory demands that we demand safer standards now. No parent should endure this pain and no child’s life should be sacrificed so recklessly.
“We must act today for Kyra and for every family that visits these leisure parks tomorrow.
“The time for words has passed. Now is the moment for action.”
An illegal immigrant who was involved in smuggling more than 3,000 others into Europe has been sentenced to 25 years in jail.
Egyptian national Ahmed Ramadan Mohamad Ebid, who arrived in the UK in a small boat in October 2022, worked with people smuggling networks in North Africa to bring hundreds of migrants at a time from Libya to Italy.
The National Crime Agency (NCA) believes the 42-year-old’s case is the first time someone has been convicted for organising migrant crossings of the Mediterranean from the UK.
Image: Ahmed Ramadan Mohamad Ebid being arrested by plain clothes officers. Pic: NCA
Ebid had a “significant managerial role within an organised crime group” and his “primary motivation was to make money out of human trafficking”, Judge Adam Hiddleston said.
He told Ebid the “conspiracy that you were a part of generated millions of pounds” and he must have been a “beneficiary” of “a significant amount”.
He said the “truly staggering” amount of money came from the “hard-earned savings of desperate individuals”, who were “ruthlessly and cynically exploited” by Ebid and the crime group.
Image: Ahmed Ramadan Mohamad Ebid. Pic: NCA
Details of the case emerged during a rare Newton hearing– a trial within a trial that takes place when the prosecution and defence disagree about facts of a case.
Ebid was living in Isleworth, west London, at the time of his arrest in June 2023.
He later admitted to being involved in enabling seven fishing boats to make the dangerous crossing to Europe, with a total of 3,781 migrants on board. He said he only played a minor role in the operation but a judge rejected this claim in March.
Image: Pictures of small boats used for crossings were found on Ebid’s phone. Pics: NCA
Ebid, who had worked as a fisherman in the Mediterranean, helped two boats carrying hundreds of migrants cross the sea in a convoy just three weeks after he arrived in the UK.
Once the boats were in Italian waters, a satellite phone on board one vessel was used to call the Italian coastguard, who rescued everyone and brought them ashore.
Image: A boat used by Ebid for an illegal crossing. Pic: PA/NCA
Ebid’s mobile phone had been in contact with the satellite phone 34 times over two days, the prosecution told the Newton hearing.
He used the same method to help five more boats make the crossing in the next six months, it added.
Each migrant was charged an average of around £3,200, bringing the criminals involved more than £12m, the NCA said.
Investigators found pictures of boats, conversations about the possible purchase of vessels, videos of migrants making the journey and screenshots of money transfers on a phone seized from him.
In a conversation with an associate which was recorded via a listening device planted by NCA officers, Ebid said migrants were not to carry phones with them on boats, adding: “Tell them guys anyone caught with a phone will be killed, threw in the sea.”
Ebid was sentenced to 25 years after pleading guilty to conspiracy to assist unlawful immigration.
Tim Burton, specialist prosecutor for the Crown Prosecution Service, said Ebid “played a leading role” in an operation “which breached immigration laws and endangered lives, for his own and others’ financial gain”.
Jacque Beer, of the NCA, said: “Ebid was part of a crime network who preyed upon the desperation of migrants to ship them across the Mediterranean in death trap boats.
“The cruel nature of his business was demonstrated by the callous way he spoke of throwing migrants into the sea if they didn’t follow his rules.”
A second man has appeared in court charged in connection with a series of fires linked to Sir Keir Starmer.
Romanian national Stanislav Carpiuc was remanded in custody after a hearing at Westminster Magistrates’ Court on Tuesday accused of arson with intent to endanger life.
He has been charged with conspiring with Roman Lavrynovych, 21, and others unknown to “damage by fire property belonging to another, intending to damage the property, and intending to endanger the life of another or being reckless as to whether the life of another would thereby be endangered”.
The 26-year-old, from Romford, east London, was arrested by counter-terrorism officers at Luton Airport on Saturday as he tried to travel to Romania, the court heard.
With the help of a Russian interpreter, Carpiuc, who was born in Ukraine, spoke only to confirm his identity in a short hearing.
The charge relates to three fires.
Two of the fires took place in Kentish Town, north London. One occurred during the early hours of 12 May at the home where Sir Keir lived before he became prime minister and moved into Downing Street.
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A car was set alight in the same street four days earlier on 8 May.
The other fire took place on 11 May at the front door of a house converted into flats in Islington.
Image: A forensics officer outside the house in Kentish Town. Pic: PA
Image: Pic: PA
Prosecutor Sarah Przybylska said: “At this stage, the alleged offending is unexplained.”
The court heard Carpiuc gave a no comment interview to police.
Defending, Jay Nutkins said his client has lived in the UK for nine years and is currently waiting for his degree results having studied business at Canterbury Christ Church University in Kent.
He denies being present at the scene of any of the fires, the court was told.
Carpiuc, who was supported by his father in court, was said to work in construction.
He will next appear at the Old Bailey on 6 June.
Lavrynovych, a Ukrainian national from Sydenham in southeast London, has already been charged with three counts of arson with intent to endanger life in connection with the fires.