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Cryptocurrency bulls say bitcoin could surge to more than $100,000 this year after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission made a pivotal step to approve the first-ever U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund.

Several crypto investors CNBC spoke with said they see the world’s top cryptocurrency rising in 2024, as the effects of approval of a bitcoin ETF, which would diversify the range of investors that can gain exposure to the cryptocurrency, begin to become more apparent.

Bitcoin’s price hasn’t moved a great deal since the news of the SEC ETF approval came in, which saw the agency give 11 products the green light.

The regulator approved rule changes to allow the creation of the ETFs, but stressed that this move “should in no way signal the Commission’s willingness to approve listing standards for crypto asset securities.”

Prices reacted to that substantially since the SEC’s move Wednesday. Bitcoin’s price was trading at $46,118 apiece Friday, down around 0.4%.

It briefly topped $49,000 to levels not seen since December 2021.

Over time, though, ETFs, coupled with other developments in the crypto world, are expected to drive major upward movements in bitcoin.

What’s a bitcoin ETF?

ETFs allow more retail investors to hold bitcoin indirectly via a share traded on a stock exchange. Investors expect acceptance of the token could begin to become more mainstream with more and more institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity, and others offering these products.

Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, said he’s been increasing his exposure to bitcoin, ethereum, solana and other cryptocurrencies over the past year.

Scaramucci says 2023 was best year for his crypto funds, will buy bitcoin ETF

“I think this is a really big breakthrough for bitcoin as a digital asset, it’s a much broader story for digital property in general,” Scaramucci told CNBC’s Arjun Kharpal at the CfC conference in St Moritz.
“I think bitcoin will probably see its all-time high at the end of the year, and is likely to go through its all-time high by the end of the year.”

As for what price Scaramucci expects for bitcoin, the noted investor said he sees the cryptocurrency hitting $100,000 over the next year.

“Could bitcoin be $100,000, which is more or a little bit more than a double over the next year? I do believe that.”

But he made a caveat: “I have been wrong so many times before.”

‘Digital gold’

He compared the token’s ETF approval to the 2004 green lighting of the first spot gold ETF. That development took years to translate into major price gains, but gold eventually skyrocketed in value.

The precious metal is now worth around $1,592.76, up around 556% since 2004 when the SPDR Gold Shares ETF began trading. Crypto bulls expect a similar direction of travel for bitcoin — except it’ll be much quicker this time around.

“We see it as digital gold,” Scaramucci told CNBC. “If you look at the market cap of gold, $13 trillion, there’s no reason why bitcoin couldn’t be 50% or 60% of that market capitalization. So that implies a 10x price over then next decade.”

Many crypto investors have compared bitcoin with gold in the past. But it’s worth noting that, while backers believe they have similar qualities — like a finite supply and immunity to external economic and geopolitical headwinds — bitcoin hasn’t exactly passed the mark as “digital gold.”

Past price performance over the past few years has shown bitcoin trades in correlation with stocks, in particular the tech-heavy Nasdaq, rather than gold.

Bitcoin did massively outperform the Nasdaq in 2023, many other risk-assets, and gold in 2023.

But the cryptocurrency primarily got a boost from speculation that the Federal Reserve would dial back its aggressive interest rate rises, which would be supportive for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

Vijay Ayyar, vice president of international for Indian crypto exchange CoinDCX, said ETF approvals had been “priced in for some time now.”

Bitcoin’s already gone from about $25,000 to nearly $47,000 since October.

“The next leg up is when we start seeing Bitcoin purchases for the ETF itself,” Ayyar said. That could happen in the next week or two.”

“If sentiment is to be believed, we are potentially looking at an accelerated move to new all-time highs some time this year, given we also have the Bitcoin halving coming up in April this year,” Ayyar added.

2023 was bitcoin’s turnaround year

If bitcoin were to reach those levels, it would mark a turnaround for an industry that’s been in the doldrums since the collapse of FTX, the once $32 billion crypto exchange, in 2022. FTX’s founder Sam Bankman-Fried was found guilty of all seven criminal counts brought against him by federal prosecutors in the U.S. last year.

What is DeFi, and could it upend finance as we know it?

In 2022, bitcoin was already falling sharply, with sky-high inflation and higher interest rates knocking prices of digital currencies across the board.

But FTX’s collapse caused deep distrust in the crypto industry among consumers, business players in the industry and regulators, as one of the largest names in the field was exposed for using assets it held on behalf of customers to make risky trades in other crypto assets and risky crypto-linked derivatives.

The crypto market saw a little over $2 trillion erased from its market capitalization, as investors got cold feet and abandoned digital tokens en masse.

In 2023, however, it was a different story. Bitcoin’s price rose more than doubled for the year, with the token’s price climbing some 152%. Other digital tokens also saw price gains. Ether roughly doubled in price, and XRP, solana, and ada also made strong gains.

“2022 was the worst year for us [but] 2023 happened to be the best year for us. So it’s been the best and worst of times,” Scaramucci said.

Also in 2023, Binance CEO and founder Changpeng Zhao pleaded guilty to criminal charges and stepped down as the company’s CEO as part of a $4.3 billion settlement with the Department of Justice. Many crypto investors see this as a chance to move forward and draw a line under bad behavior in the industry.

Industry executives are calling the start of another bull run. They say that, on top of the approval of a bitcoin ETF, the bitcoin “halving” is a factor that will drive gains in 2024.

The halving, which happens every four years, is an event written in bitcoin’s code. The rewards so-called miners get for mining bitcoin is cut in half. This keeps a cap on the supply of bitcoin, of which there will only ever be 21 million. In previous price cycles, halving preceded a rise in the price of bitcoin.

$250,000 by July?

Tim Draper, founder of Draper Associates, believes the bitcoin halving — along with other factors — could spur the price of bitcoin to hit $250,000 by July.

The billionaire investor said he sees increased bitcoin adoption among mainstream investors and the token’s much-anticipated halving event driving it to a new all-time high.

Bitcoin's price will be above six figures by end of 2024, CoinShares strategy head says

“The halvening, more usage of a currency that is decentralized, trusted, global, [and that] stores value from anywhere,” are all factors that are supportive of bitcoin at the moment, Draper told CNBC.

A major part of Draper’s thesis is that women will drive the adoption of bitcoin in 2024 and beyond.

The investor told CNBC that women “will start to see the need to have at least some bitcoin in case of a run on dollars.”

It’s worth noting Draper, who first invested in bitcoin in 2014, has been wrong about the token’s price trajectory.

He told CNBC in late 2022 that he thought bitcoin would reach $250,000 by June 2023. Draper then said in July 2023 that investors will have to wait “a little longer (maybe 2 years) for bitcoin to hit his $250,000 target.

And despite successful bets on Tesla, Baidu and Skype, Draper’s broader venture investing track record hasn’t been pristine.

The investor once backed Theranos, the controversial blood-testing startup that collapsed after its founder Elizabeth Holmes was accused of defrauding investors. Rather than call her out, Draper doubled down on his support for the entrepreneur, saying he believed critics had “taken down another icon.”

But Draper isn’t the only investor bullish on bitcoin. Tom Lee, managing partner at Fundstrat Global Advisors, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday that bitcoin could hit $150,000 in the next 12 months, and as much as $500,000 in five years.

And Meltem Demirors, chief strategy officer of CoinShares, told CNBC’s Arjun Kharpal she thinks bitcoin can reach the $100,000 mark — she made that comment before the ETF approval, in response to a question on a hack that led to the SEC falsely posting that it had approved the ETFs late Tuesday.

“I think we are going over six figures by the end of the year,” Demirors said, highlighting two key reasons: a bitcoin ETF approval and the so-called upcoming “halving” event.

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How Elon Musk’s plan to slash government agencies and regulation may benefit his empire

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How Elon Musk’s plan to slash government agencies and regulation may benefit his empire

Elon Musk’s business empire is sprawling. It includes electric vehicle maker Tesla, social media company X, artificial intelligence startup xAI, computer interface company Neuralink, tunneling venture Boring Company and aerospace firm SpaceX. 

Some of his ventures already benefit tremendously from federal contracts. SpaceX has received more than $19 billion from contracts with the federal government, according to research from FedScout. Under a second Trump presidency, more lucrative contracts could come its way. SpaceX is on track to take in billions of dollars annually from prime contracts with the federal government for years to come, according to FedScout CEO Geoff Orazem.

Musk, who has frequently blamed the government for stifling innovation, could also push for less regulation of his businesses. Earlier this month, Musk and former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy were tapped by Trump to lead a government efficiency group called the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE.

In a recent commentary piece in the Wall Street Journal, Musk and Ramaswamy wrote that DOGE will “pursue three major kinds of reform: regulatory rescissions, administrative reductions and cost savings.” They went on to say that many existing federal regulations were never passed by Congress and should therefore be nullified, which President-elect Trump could accomplish through executive action. Musk and Ramaswamy also championed the large-scale auditing of agencies, calling out the Pentagon for failing its seventh consecutive audit. 

“The number one way Elon Musk and his companies would benefit from a Trump administration is through deregulation and defanging, you know, giving fewer resources to federal agencies tasked with oversight of him and his businesses,” says CNBC technology reporter Lora Kolodny.

To learn how else Elon Musk and his companies may benefit from having the ear of the president-elect watch the video.

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Why X’s new terms of service are driving some users to leave Elon Musk’s platform

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Why X's new terms of service are driving some users to leave Elon Musk's platform

Elon Musk attends the America First Policy Institute gala at Mar-A-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, Nov. 14, 2024.

Carlos Barria | Reuters

X’s new terms of service, which took effect Nov. 15, are driving some users off Elon Musk’s microblogging platform. 

The new terms include expansive permissions requiring users to allow the company to use their data to train X’s artificial intelligence models while also making users liable for as much as $15,000 in damages if they use the platform too much. 

The terms are prompting some longtime users of the service, both celebrities and everyday people, to post that they are taking their content to other platforms. 

“With the recent and upcoming changes to the terms of service — and the return of volatile figures — I find myself at a crossroads, facing a direction I can no longer fully support,” actress Gabrielle Union posted on X the same day the new terms took effect, while announcing she would be leaving the platform.

“I’m going to start winding down my Twitter account,” a user with the handle @mplsFietser said in a post. “The changes to the terms of service are the final nail in the coffin for me.”

It’s unclear just how many users have left X due specifically to the company’s new terms of service, but since the start of November, many social media users have flocked to Bluesky, a microblogging startup whose origins stem from Twitter, the former name for X. Some users with new Bluesky accounts have posted that they moved to the service due to Musk and his support for President-elect Donald Trump.

Bluesky’s U.S. mobile app downloads have skyrocketed 651% since the start of November, according to estimates from Sensor Tower. In the same period, X and Meta’s Threads are up 20% and 42%, respectively. 

X and Threads have much larger monthly user bases. Although Musk said in May that X has 600 million monthly users, market intelligence firm Sensor Tower estimates X had 318 million monthly users as of October. That same month, Meta said Threads had nearly 275 million monthly users. Bluesky told CNBC on Thursday it had reached 21 million total users this week.

Here are some of the noteworthy changes in X’s new service terms and how they compare with those of rivals Bluesky and Threads.

Artificial intelligence training

X has come under heightened scrutiny because of its new terms, which say that any content on the service can be used royalty-free to train the company’s artificial intelligence large language models, including its Grok chatbot.

“You agree that this license includes the right for us to (i) provide, promote, and improve the Services, including, for example, for use with and training of our machine learning and artificial intelligence models, whether generative or another type,” X’s terms say.

Additionally, any “user interactions, inputs and results” shared with Grok can be used for what it calls “training and fine-tuning purposes,” according to the Grok section of the X app and website. This specific function, though, can be turned off manually. 

X’s terms do not specify whether users’ private messages can be used to train its AI models, and the company did not respond to a request for comment.

“You should only provide Content that you are comfortable sharing with others,” read a portion of X’s terms of service agreement.

Though X’s new terms may be expansive, Meta’s policies aren’t that different. 

The maker of Threads uses “information shared on Meta’s Products and services” to get its training data, according to the company’s Privacy Center. This includes “posts or photos and their captions.” There is also no direct way for users outside of the European Union to opt out of Meta’s AI training. Meta keeps training data “for as long as we need it on a case-by-case basis to ensure an AI model is operating appropriately, safely and efficiently,” according to its Privacy Center. 

Under Meta’s policy, private messages with friends or family aren’t used to train AI unless one of the users in a chat chooses to share it with the models, which can include Meta AI and AI Studio.

Bluesky, which has seen a user growth surge since Election Day, doesn’t do any generative AI training. 

“We do not use any of your content to train generative AI, and have no intention of doing so,” Bluesky said in a post on its platform Friday, confirming the same to CNBC as well.

Liquidated damages

Bluesky CEO: Our platform is 'radically different' from anything else in social media

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The Pentagon’s battle inside the U.S. for control of a new Cyber Force

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The Pentagon's battle inside the U.S. for control of a new Cyber Force

A recent Chinese cyber-espionage attack inside the nation’s major telecom networks that may have reached as high as the communications of President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect J.D. Vance was designated this week by one U.S. senator as “far and away the most serious telecom hack in our history.”

The U.S. has yet to figure out the full scope of what China accomplished, and whether or not its spies are still inside U.S. communication networks.

“The barn door is still wide open, or mostly open,” Senator Mark Warner of Virginia and chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee told the New York Times on Thursday.

The revelations highlight the rising cyberthreats tied to geopolitics and nation-state actor rivals of the U.S., but inside the federal government, there’s disagreement on how to fight back, with some advocates calling for the creation of an independent federal U.S. Cyber Force. In September, the Department of Defense formally appealed to Congress, urging lawmakers to reject that approach.

Among one of the most prominent voices advocating for the new branch is the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a national security think tank, but the issue extends far beyond any single group. In June, defense committees in both the House and Senate approved measures calling for independent evaluations of the feasibility to create a separate cyber branch, as part of the annual defense policy deliberations.

Drawing on insights from more than 75 active-duty and retired military officers experienced in cyber operations, the FDD’s 40-page report highlights what it says are chronic structural issues within the U.S. Cyber Command (CYBERCOM), including fragmented recruitment and training practices across the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marines.

“America’s cyber force generation system is clearly broken,” the FDD wrote, citing comments made in 2023 by then-leader of U.S. Cyber Command, Army General Paul Nakasone, who took over the role in 2018 and described current U.S. military cyber organization as unsustainable: “All options are on the table, except the status quo,” Nakasone had said.

Concern with Congress and a changing White House

The FDD analysis points to “deep concerns” that have existed within Congress for a decade — among members of both parties — about the military being able to staff up to successfully defend cyberspace. Talent shortages, inconsistent training, and misaligned missions, are undermining CYBERCOM’s capacity to respond effectively to complex cyber threats, it says. Creating a dedicated branch, proponents argue, would better position the U.S. in cyberspace. The Pentagon, however, warns that such a move could disrupt coordination, increase fragmentation, and ultimately weaken U.S. cyber readiness.

As the Pentagon doubles down on its resistance to establishment of a separate U.S. Cyber Force, the incoming Trump administration could play a significant role in shaping whether America leans toward a centralized cyber strategy or reinforces the current integrated framework that emphasizes cross-branch coordination.

Known for his assertive national security measures, Trump’s 2018 National Cyber Strategy emphasized embedding cyber capabilities across all elements of national power and focusing on cross-departmental coordination and public-private partnerships rather than creating a standalone cyber entity. At that time, the Trump’s administration emphasized centralizing civilian cybersecurity efforts under the Department of Homeland Security while tasking the Department of Defense with addressing more complex, defense-specific cyber threats. Trump’s pick for Secretary of Homeland Security, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, has talked up her, and her state’s, focus on cybersecurity.

Former Trump officials believe that a second Trump administration will take an aggressive stance on national security, fill gaps at the Energy Department, and reduce regulatory burdens on the private sector. They anticipate a stronger focus on offensive cyber operations, tailored threat vulnerability protection, and greater coordination between state and local governments. Changes will be coming at the top of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, which was created during Trump’s first term and where current director Jen Easterly has announced she will leave once Trump is inaugurated.

Cyber Command 2.0 and the U.S. military

John Cohen, executive director of the Program for Countering Hybrid Threats at the Center for Internet Security, is among those who share the Pentagon’s concerns. “We can no longer afford to operate in stovepipes,” Cohen said, warning that a separate cyber branch could worsen existing silos and further isolate cyber operations from other critical military efforts.

Cohen emphasized that adversaries like China and Russia employ cyber tactics as part of broader, integrated strategies that include economic, physical, and psychological components. To counter such threats, he argued, the U.S. needs a cohesive approach across its military branches. “Confronting that requires our military to adapt to the changing battlespace in a consistent way,” he said.

In 2018, CYBERCOM certified its Cyber Mission Force teams as fully staffed, but concerns have been expressed by the FDD and others that personnel were shifted between teams to meet staffing goals — a move they say masked deeper structural problems. Nakasone has called for a CYBERCOM 2.0, saying in comments early this year “How do we think about training differently? How do we think about personnel differently?” and adding that a major issue has been the approach to military staffing within the command.

Austin Berglas, a former head of the FBI’s cyber program in New York who worked on consolidation efforts inside the Bureau, believes a separate cyber force could enhance U.S. capabilities by centralizing resources and priorities. “When I first took over the [FBI] cyber program … the assets were scattered,” said Berglas, who is now the global head of professional services at supply chain cyber defense company BlueVoyant. Centralization brought focus and efficiency to the FBI’s cyber efforts, he said, and it’s a model he believes would benefit the military’s cyber efforts as well. “Cyber is a different beast,” Berglas said, emphasizing the need for specialized training, advancement, and resource allocation that isn’t diluted by competing military priorities.

Berglas also pointed to the ongoing “cyber arms race” with adversaries like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. He warned that without a dedicated force, the U.S. risks falling behind as these nations expand their offensive cyber capabilities and exploit vulnerabilities across critical infrastructure.

Nakasone said in his comments earlier this year that a lot has changed since 2013 when U.S. Cyber Command began building out its Cyber Mission Force to combat issues like counterterrorism and financial cybercrime coming from Iran. “Completely different world in which we live in today,” he said, citing the threats from China and Russia.

Brandon Wales, a former executive director of the CISA, said there is the need to bolster U.S. cyber capabilities, but he cautions against major structural changes during a period of heightened global threats.

“A reorganization of this scale is obviously going to be disruptive and will take time,” said Wales, who is now vice president of cybersecurity strategy at SentinelOne.

He cited China’s preparations for a potential conflict over Taiwan as a reason the U.S. military needs to maintain readiness. Rather than creating a new branch, Wales supports initiatives like Cyber Command 2.0 and its aim to enhance coordination and capabilities within the existing structure. “Large reorganizations should always be the last resort because of how disruptive they are,” he said.

Wales says it’s important to ensure any structural changes do not undermine integration across military branches and recognize that coordination across existing branches is critical to addressing the complex, multidomain threats posed by U.S. adversaries. “You should not always assume that centralization solves all of your problems,” he said. “We need to enhance our capabilities, both defensively and offensively. This isn’t about one solution; it’s about ensuring we can quickly see, stop, disrupt, and prevent threats from hitting our critical infrastructure and systems,” he added.

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