Iowa caucuses: It might take more than a winter storm to knock Trump off course as Republicans choose their candidate for president
The main street in Des Moines, leading to the State Capitol building, is covered by a thick layer of snow, as icicles dangle from signs welcoming visitors to the home of the famous Iowa caucuses.
One woman is waiting for the bus and a man is shovelling snow from the pavement in front of his shop but it is, otherwise, a ghost town.
Months of campaigning lead to the Iowa caucuses, the state’s version of a primary election, which kicks off the race to the White House, where Republicans vote for their preferred candidate to be president.
But nobody could have prepared for this once-in-a-decade storm. On Monday evening, when caucusgoers cast their vote, it is forecast to feel like -40C with wind chill – cold so extreme it can cause frostbite in a matter of minutes.
Travelling on Iowa’s roads for a couple of hours, I saw at least a dozen lorries and cars that had crashed or skidded off the tarmac entirely.
The treacherous conditions will undoubtedly affect voter turnout, but it’s difficult to say for certain which of the candidates will be most impacted.
Many Donald Trump voters are elderly and live rurally so may have to travel further to the closest voting station, but his fan base also tends to be more fervent, which the former president hopes will be telling.
“You have the worst weather, I guess, in recorded history,” he said, “But maybe that’s good because our people are more committed than anybody else.”
Read more:
What are caucuses and why is the first one in Iowa so important?
Who is Nikki Haley? The woman vying for the Republican nomination
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What happens at the Iowa caucus?
The Iowa State Capitol building
Regardless of the weather, if recent polls come to bear, it’s unlikely any of the other candidates will come close to beating Mr Trump.
A final poll from NBC puts Mr Trump’s voter share at 48%.
Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina who served as ambassador to the UN in Mr Trump’s administration, is his closest competition with 20% of the vote.
Donald Trump in Iowa for the caucuses
Nikki Haley, centre, is seen in Iowa ahead of the voting
The current Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, characterised by some as a Mr Trump tribute act, has 16% of the vote, according to the poll.
In Urbandale, a suburb of Des Moines, Jill Cameron, an evangelical Christian, is helping her husband clear snow from their neighbour’s driveway.
More than half of Iowa’s evangelical population support Mr Trump, and Mrs Cameron is proud to be among them.
“I’m really into pro-life and pro-country,” she says, “I think we need to shut our borders because we’re being invaded, and we’re losing lots of rights. Our country is a mess.”
Ron DeSantis is trailing Donald Trump and Nikki Haley
I ask how being such a committed Christian tallies with what Mr Trump has said in the past, about grabbing women by the genitals and, more recently, about immigrants “poisoning the blood” of America.
“Course, nobody likes to hear people speak so disrespectfully,” Mrs Cameron says. “But I also liked what he did and where our country was when he was in office.”
The momentum in the chasing pack is with Ms Haley, thanks to a strong performance in recent debates and a laser focus on foreign policy, including unwavering support for Ukraine and Israel.
A billboard by the Democratic National Committee criticises Trump’s record ahead of the Iowa vote
But many of the would-be Haley voters I speak to like her because they believe she presents a more moderate alternative to Mr Trump.
Polls show that if she was selected as the Republican nominee, she would likely prevail over President Biden in a general election, as things stand.
“I think she’s probably got the best chance of winning against Biden from what the polls say,” Tyler Sparks, who I also meet on a residential street in Urbandale, says. “Maybe we can kind of close the gap between both sides of the parties and actually make the country better, rather than just spinning our wheels, ploughing snow.”
Ms Haley has made some notable missteps on the campaign trail in the last few weeks, including mistaking the name of one of Iowa’s most celebrated basketball stars, not a sin easily forgiven here.
Even with the polls showing a commanding lead, Team Trump is managing expectations.
“Don’t go raising the bar,” Mr Trump’s long-standing advisor Jason Miller, tells me,
“I’m happy with the win. A win is a win and we’ll be comfortable with that.” Mr Miller knows a thumbs up in Iowa is disproportionately important.
If a candidate does well here, momentum can carry them to victory in other states.
The question is – whose supporters and how many of them – will brave the deep freeze to reach the ballot box.
The King has written to former US president Joe Biden after he was diagnosed with an aggressive form of prostate cancer, Buckingham Palace said
The monarch, who is undergoing his own treatment for an undisclosed cancer, hosted the 82-year-old for tea and talks at Windsor in July 2023.
Mr Biden was diagnosed on Friday, with tests revealing the cancer had spread to his bones.
The former president posted an image of himself and his wife Jill on X on Monday and wrote: “Cancer touches us all. Like so many of you, Jill and I have learned that we are strongest in the broken places. Thank you for lifting us up with love and support.”
The King and Joe Biden at Windsor Castle in July 2023. Pic: Reuters
The King’s letter comes after British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said he was “very sorry to hear President Biden has prostate cancer”.
“All the very best to Joe, his wife Jill and their family, and wishing the President swift and successful treatment,” he added.
Meanwhile US President Donald Trump said he was “saddened” by the news, adding: “We extend our warmest and best wishes to Jill and the family, and we wish Joe a fast and successful recovery.”
Former US president Barack Obama said: “Michelle and I are thinking of the entire Biden family.
“Nobody has done more to find breakthrough treatments for cancer in all its forms than Joe, and I am certain he will fight this challenge with his trademark resolve and grace. We pray for a fast and full recovery.”
Read more: Biden diagnosed with ‘aggressive’ form of prostate cancer
Barack Obama (right) with Joe Biden at a campaign event in 2022. File pic: Reuters
After a poor debate performance against Mr Trump and amid escalating concerns around his age and fitness to serve, Mr Biden withdrew from the 2024 presidential election race and endorsed his vice president Kamala Harris.
Ms Harris wrote on X after his diagnosis: “We are keeping him, Dr. Biden, and their entire family in our hearts and prayers during this time.
“Joe is a fighter – and I know he will face this challenge with the same strength, resilience, and optimism that have always defined his life and leadership. We are hopeful for a full and speedy recovery.”
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Mr Biden’s diagnosis: What we know
Former US president Bill Clinton wrote on social media: “My friend Joe Biden’s always been a fighter. Hillary and I are rooting for him and are keeping him, Jill, and the entire family in our thoughts.”
Hillary Clinton, who unsuccessfully ran for president in 2016, said she was “thinking of the Bidens as they take on cancer, a disease they’ve done so much to try to spare other families from”.
Speaker of the US House of Representatives Mike Johnson said it was “sad news” and his family “will be joining the countless others who are praying” for Mr Biden.
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Former House speaker Nancy Pelosi described Mr Biden as a “great American patriot” and said she was “praying for him to have strength and a swift recovery”.
Mr Trump’s secretary of state, Marco Rubio, wrote on social media that he and his wife were “united in prayer for the Biden Family during this difficult time”.
Politicians have sent messages of support to Joe Biden, who has been diagnosed with prostate cancer.
The 82-year-old, who is the oldest person to ever serve as US president, was described as a “fighter” with people wishing him a “fast and full recovery”.
US President Donald Trump said he was “saddened” by the news, adding: “We extend our warmest and best wishes to Jill and the family, and we wish Joe a fast and successful recovery.”
Former US president Barack Obama said: “Michelle and I are thinking of the entire Biden family.
“Nobody has done more to find breakthrough treatments for cancer in all its forms than Joe, and I am certain he will fight this challenge with his trademark resolve and grace. We pray for a fast and full recovery.”
Read more: Biden diagnosed with ‘aggressive’ form of prostate cancer
Barack Obama (right) with Joe Biden at a campaign event in 2022. File pic: Reuters
British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said he was “very sorry to hear President Biden has prostate cancer”.
“All the very best to Joe, his wife Jill and their family, and wishing the President swift and successful treatment,” he added.
After a poor debate performance against Mr Trump and amid escalating concerns for his health, Mr Biden withdrew from the 2024 election and endorsed his vice president Kamala Harris.
Ms Harris wrote on X: “We are keeping him, Dr. Biden, and their entire family in our hearts and prayers during this time.
“Joe is a fighter – and I know he will face this challenge with the same strength, resilience, and optimism that have always defined his life and leadership. We are hopeful for a full and speedy recovery.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Mr Biden’s diagnosis: What we know
Former US president Bill Clinton wrote on social media: “My friend Joe Biden’s always been a fighter. Hillary and I are rooting for him and are keeping him, Jill, and the entire family in our thoughts.”
Hillary Clinton, who unsuccessfully ran for president in 2016, said she was “thinking of the Bidens as they take on cancer, a disease they’ve done so much to try to spare other families from”.
Speaker of the US House Of Representatives Mike Johnson said it was “sad news” and his family “will be joining the countless others who are praying” for Mr Biden.
Read more from Sky News:
UK and EU sign reset deal – live updates
Gary Lineker to leave BBC next week
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
Former House speaker Nancy Pelosi described Mr Biden as a “great American patriot” and said she was “praying for him to have strength and a swift recovery”.
Mr Trump’s secretary of state, Marco Rubio, wrote on social media he and his wife were “united in prayer for the Biden Family during this difficult time”.
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