With voters, he is struggling to build any sort of coalition, still bumping along 18 or so points behind Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour after 15 months in office, while this week he finds himself battling 60 of his own MPs convinced his flagship Rwanda plan won’t work.
The message from the Tory right is clear: sort out illegal migration or face electoral oblivion.
To that end, rebel MPs are pressing the prime minister to toughen up his Rwanda bill.
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Calls to ‘strengthen’ Rwanda bill
For now, Number 10 seem to be standing its ground – after all, amendments which the right argues strengthen the bill could provoke a rebellion on the One Nation centrist wing of the party, or even the Rwandan government, which has warned London the bill must stay within international law.
There is going to be a lot of rows, noise, and tension over the coming 48 hours, but even on the rebel side, there is a sense MPs won’t torpedo the entire bill should the government refuse to accept the amendments laid by former immigration minister Robert Jenrick, which aim to tighten the bill around getting planes off the ground in the face of injunctions from the European Court of Human Rights, or asylum seekers being allowed to make individual claims.
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As one senior rebel put it to me the other day, it’s one thing to abstain, or vote for rebel amendments, and another to collapse the whole bill entirely.
So far, only Suella Braverman has come out to say she will vote down the bill if it’s not amended.
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PM ‘will not hesitate’ to protect security
The bigger problem for the PM is the rot. Even if he manages to pass the bill, the can is only kicked down the road.
His government will face individual court battles and perhaps a tussle with the court in Strasbourg. He might win in the Commons this week, but if the policy doesn’t work, he’ll face the wrath not just of many of his MPs but many former Conservative voters too.
Last December, after much drama, Mr Sunak headed off a Conservative revolt over his flagship bill, when – despite all the noise – the government won the vote with a majority of 44, with 37 MPs either abstaining or absent and not one voting against.
But even if the prime minister can carry his plan through the Commons this week, the question on all the minds of MPs – amplified by the polling out today – is whether it can even dent Labour’s lead.
As a senior minister lamented to me last December during those Tory rows over Rwanda: “This is the week our hopes of 1992 turned into 1997.”
In other words, even if Mr Sunak can win the battles with his rebel MPs, he has lost the war with a party irreconcilably divided and a public that’s tuned out.
His best hope is that steady progress – on the boats, the economy, NHS waiting lists – can slowly turn the tide.
A temporary injunction that would have blocked asylum seekers from being housed at the Bell Hotel in Essex has been overturned at the Court of Appeal.
The Home Office and Somani Hotels, which owns the Bell Hotel in Epping, have successfully challenged a High Court ruling. Today’s hearing saw both parties win the right to appeal, before also winning the appeals themselves.
Lord Justice Bean, sitting with Lady Justice Nicola Davies and Lord Justice Cobb, quashed an earlier injunction granted to Epping Forest District Council, saying: “We allow the appeals and we set aside the injunction imposed on 19 August 2025.”
This means asylum seekers will stay in the accommodation in Essex past 12 September. There are currently 138 asylum seekers being housed at the hotel.
Image: Lord Justice Bean delivering the ruling. Pic: PA
Last week, the initial court ruling centred on the change in use of the premises without consent from the local authority.
But after the Home Office argued its case – which involved stating it had the right to appeal – judges have backed the government’s side.
The decision avoids a precedent for other councils to appeal against asylum hotels in their areas.
Council ‘will continue the fight’
A councillor for Epping said the “battle is not over” after the Court of Appeal ruling and vowed the council would “continue the fight”.
Image: Councillor Ken Williamson. Pic: PA
Speaking outside the London court, Ken Williamson, said: “We are deeply disappointed by the outcome of today’s hearing.
“The concern and motivation of Epping Forest District Council throughout has been the wellbeing of our local residents, where we had clarity and resolution, we now have doubt and confusion.”
The council could still be granted an injunction following a full hearing of the legal claim, which is due to be heard in October.
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Reform UK’s deputy leader Richard Tice: Epping residents should feel ‘angry and frustrated’
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage also criticised the ruling, claiming that “illegal migrants have more rights than the British people under (Keir) Starmer”.
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch echoed this in her own statement, saying: “Keir Starmer has shown that he puts the rights of illegal immigrants above the rights of British people who just want to feel safe in their towns and communities.”
She also urged Conservative councillors seeking similar injunctions against asylum hotels to “keep going” despite the ruling.
Focal point of protests
Epping Forest District Council had asked for the injunction after the Bell Hotel became the focal point of several protests and counter-protests. It claimed its owner, Somani Hotels, had breached planning rules.
Lord Justice Stephen Eyre, who gave the original High Court decision, had said that while the council had not “definitively established” that the company had breached planning rules, “the strength of the claimant’s case is such that it weighs in favour” of granting the injunction.
Image: Anti-migration protesters in Epping in July
Regular protests have been held outside the Bell Hotel since an asylum seeker housed there was accused of sexually assaulting a 14-year-old girl in July.
Hadush Gerberslasie Kebatu, 38, denies two counts of sexual assault, one count of attempted sexual assault, one count of inciting a girl to engage in sexual activity, and one count of harassment without violence.
Image: A view of an England flag outside the Bell Hotel in Epping, Essex, after a temporary injunction that would have blocked asylum seekers from being housed at the Bell Hotel in Epping, Essex, was overturned at the Court of Appeal. Picture date: Friday A
After the Court of Appeal ruling, a small number of protesters gathered outside the Bell Hotel carrying England and Union flags, with police officers guarding the entrance to the hotel, which is gated off with metal fencing.
An England flag has been attached to a drainpipe outside the hotel, while England flags have also been painted onto signs and a speed camera outside the hotel.
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