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Labour faces an even tougher challenge to win the next general election after changes to the UK’s constituency boundaries.

The party was already aiming at a record swing of 12 percentage points from the Conservatives, better than Tony Blair achieved in 1997, to secure a majority.

Now, calculations by election experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher for Sky News, PA, BBC News and ITV News suggest that when the public heads to the ballot box later this year, the target swing will be one of 12.7.

Rallings and Thrasher, who produced equivalent estimates for the 1997 and 2010 boundary reviews, estimated what the 2019 general election result would have been if it had been fought in the new constituencies.

Their findings, which will form the notional starting point for the next contest, increase the Conservative majority from 80 seats to 94. The Conservatives will defend 372 seats, up from 365, while Labour’s tally reduces from 203 to 201 seats.

The other parties to lose seats are the Liberal Democrats who drop from 11 to just 8 seats, matching their lowest total from 2015, and Plaid Cymru, which loses two of its four seats.

Those three Lib Dem losses are among a group of five constituencies to retain the same name but switch to a different party under the estimated results. It means former Lib Dem leader Tim Farron becomes the challenger, as well as the current MP, in Westmorland and Lonsdale.

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Boundary changes: How the electoral impact of the new political battlegrounds are calculated

What effect will this have on the election?

The increased Conservative advantage makes the hill steeper to climb for Labour.

The key figure is 326 – that is the number of seats needed for a majority.

That means a net loss of 47 seats for the Tories – up from 40 pre-boundary changes – would oust them from Number 10, and a net gain of 125 seats would deliver Labour an overall majority of two.

If voters across the country behaved in the same way, switching from Conservative to Labour, then Buckingham and Bletchley in the South East of England would be the seat necessary to fall to give Sir Keir Starmer the keys to Number 10.

If that happens, Labour would have achieved a record swing of 12.7 – larger than the 10.2 point swing from the Tories that Tony Blair achieved with his landslide victory in 1997, and more than double the swing achieved at any other election since 1945.

A 4.2 point swing to Labour would see the Conservatives lose their overall majority – with the key seat of Wrexham in North Wales being the one Sir Keir would have to take in order to achieve that.

The boundary changes also raise the benchmark for Labour to become the largest party in a hung parliament. That swing is now 8.3 points from Conservative to Labour, rather than 7. The pivotal seat in this scenario is Chelsea and Fulham.

Read more:
When could the next general election be?

What about the other parties?

Of course, it will not just be Labour versus Conservatives on the night, and the performance of other parties could play a significant role in who comes out on top.

A key factor for Labour’s success will be in its battles against the SNP in Scotland, as wins here would lower the gains needed from the Tories.

In total, ten of the SNP’s 48 seats have majorities of less than 10%. Labour is second in just two of these – Lothian East and Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy.

Those would require a 5 point swing from SNP to Labour. But current polling suggests a swing of 12 points, which could see Labour gain as many as 23 seats from the SNP.

To put that in context, not since the 1950s has Labour formed a government at Westminster with less than 40 of its MPs elected in Scotland. To achieve that under the new boundaries would require a massive 25.1 swing from SNP to Labour.

Lib Dem gains from the Conservatives could also ease Labour’s path to Downing Street. The new estimates mean they start second to the Tories in 85 constituencies, with 40 of those in the South East and a further 25 in the South West of England.

The most marginal of the 85 seats is Carshalton and Wallington in London.

Which MPs are at risk?

Arguably the most high-profile Conservative in Lib Dem sights is Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who would lose Godalming and Ash in the South East – if there was a swing of at least 9.6 points to the Lib Dems.

Sir Ed Davey’s party requires smaller swings to defeat the justice secretary, Alex Chalk, in Cheltenham (1.2 points) and the health minster Maria Caufield in Lewes (3.7 points).

If Levelling Up Secretary Michal Gove stands in Surrey Heath then a 14.9 point swing to the Liberal Democrats would see him lose the seat.

Several former and current Conservative ministers also have a tough task against Labour to stay in parliament.

For example, a swing of just 1.5 points in Chingford and Woodford Green would see former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith lose his notional 1,604 majority to Labour.

If Northern Ireland minister and leading Brexiteer Steve Baker chooses to defend the adjusted Wycombe seat, the 1,494 notional majority would be wiped out by a 1.6 point swing to Labour.

And a swing of 3.6 points to Labour in Chipping Barnet would oust former minister Theresa Villiers, despite her majority of over 4,000 votes.

Even if Labour doesn’t reach the magic 12.7 point swing for a majority, other key Tory figures could fall as a result of a much smaller one, including ex-justice secretary Sir Robert Buckland, deputy chairman Lee Anderson and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, if he contests Welwyn Hatfield.

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While current polling suggests a sizeable Labour parliamentary group, there are some tight contests for that party’s figures too.

A total of nine seats would fall to the Conservatives on a swing of less than one percentage point from Labour.

A swing of just 1.3 points to the Tories in Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley would defeat shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper, while a 2.9 point swing would see shadow policing minister Alex Norris lose Nottingham North and Kimberley to the Tories.

Some Labour MPs, including Chris Elmore (Bridgend) and Emma Hardy (Hull West and Hessle), also find themselves challenging in what are now notionally Conservative seats.

All the above is based on estimates and it is impossible to know precisely how these new constituencies voted in 2019. It is also tricky to determine the impact of the decision by the Brexit party not to contest most Conservative seats in 2019.

A full methodology of the notional results estimates used by Rallings and Thrasher can be accessed here. The underlying data on all of the new vote estimates for each constituency can be downloaded as a spreadsheet.

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Abusive boyfriend whose partner Kiena Dawes blamed him for her death in suicide note jailed

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Abusive boyfriend whose partner Kiena Dawes blamed him for her death in suicide note jailed

An abusive boyfriend whose girlfriend blamed him for her death in a suicide note – after he subjected her to years of violence – has been jailed for six-and-a-half years for controlling and coercive behaviour and assault.

Ryan Wellings, 30, was found guilty of the offences but was cleared of Kiena Dawes’s manslaughter by a jury at Preston Crown Court on Monday.

He was the first defendant in England to face trial for the unlawful killing of his partner after her suicide following domestic violence.

Shortly after Ms Dawes wrote her note on her phone, in which she described Wellings as a “monster”, the 23-year-old hairdresser left it with a friend before she took her own life on 22 July 2022.

Prosecuting, Paul Greaney KC cited the suicide note at Wellings’s trial. In it, Ms Dawes said he had “killed [her]”.

“He ruined every bit of strength I had left,” the note said. “I had dreams. I had a future at one point. That was taken away from me.”

Ryan Wellings. Pic Lancashire Police
Image:
Ryan Wellings. Pic: Lancashire Police

Wellings denied the allegations against him and told jurors “I’m not a monster”.

While a jury cleared Wellings of Kiena’s manslaughter, Mr Greaney invited the court to sentence the defendant “on the basis that [the offending of which he was convicted] formed the background to and set the scene for her death”.

He said the abuse was “both regular and routine across the relationship”.

On one occasion, the court heard the defendant “held a drill to Kiena’s face, switched the drill on and threatened to drill out her teeth”.

‘Breaks my heart’

In a personal statement read out on her behalf in court, Angela Dawes, Kiena’s mother, said: “It breaks my heart that [Kiena’s] beautiful baby doesn’t have her mummy here because of that monster.”

“I truly hope that no other young lady or child has to go through what he did to my daughter and her baby,” she added.

Kiena Dawes took her own life. Pic: Lancashire Police
Image:
Kiena Dawes took her own life. Pic: Lancashire Police

Kiena’s grandmother, Irene Ball, said she had noticed at times during Kiena’s relationship with Wellings that her smile was “false” but recalled her granddaughter “tried to reassure [her]”.

“It was extremely shocking to see my granddaughter hurt and with injuries to her beautiful face,” she said.

“I told Kiena that he would really badly hurt her one day and I pleaded with her not to go back to him.”

Kynan Dawes, Kiena’s brother, said: “I introduced Kiena to this monster and I will regret that for the rest of my life.”

Mr Dawes said he felt “justice [had] been served” as “the world now knows what a monster he is”.

Addressing those who’d been following Kiena’s case online, he added: “I want people to see that domestic violence is not OK and men should respect their partners.”

He also urged anyone experiencing domestic violence to “go to the police”, adding “if you don’t feel like you can do this, speak to family or friends”.

‘Friendly and kind young woman’

In sentencing, Judge Robert Altham said Ms Dawes was “a popular, vivacious, friendly and kind young woman”.

“She pleaded with you to stop hitting her, but you just carried on. You tried to persuade her that it was her fault for upsetting you,” he added.

Ms Dawes had attempted suicide in the past, before her relationship with Wellings, and lawyers for Wellings told the court her death was because of “multiple factors”.

The judge said the defendant was aware of Ms Dawes’s history of mental health issues, he “called her names connected with her illness” and “repeatedly told her that she may as well kill herself”.

However, he said his sentence was based on the jury’s conclusion that the defendant had “no criminal responsibility” for Kiena’s death.

In mitigation, John Jones KC told the court the relationship between Ms Dawes and Wellings, a landscape gardener from Bispham who had a previous conviction for battering an ex-partner, was “inconsistent” throughout its two-and-a-half years.

“It would be wrong to say that that coercive relationship was in existence throughout,” he said.

The court heard the abuse of Ms Dawes included regular slapping and “ragging” by her hair, and threats to use a drill to take out her teeth and throw acid in her face.

After she became pregnant, Wellings gave her a black eye and began criticising her weight, calling her “fat” while contacting escorts and prostitutes online.

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Police were called more than once, but Wellings threatened Ms Dawes that their daughter would be taken from them if she told them what was happening, so she declined to help prosecute him.

But she did report Wellings following an attack which left her needing hospital treatment and he was arrested.

He broke his bail conditions but was not locked up, leaving Ms Dawes feeling let down by police. Four days later, she killed herself.

Wellings’ sentences, to run consecutively, were for controlling or coercive behaviour in an intimate relationship and for assault occasioning actual bodily harm.

A further count of assault on the defendant’s former friend Scott Fletcher was also included as part of the sentence, an offence to which he had previously pleaded guilty.

Wellings will serve half of the sentence in prison before he is released on licence.

Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.

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Elianne Andam: Teenager who stabbed 15-year-old to death in Croydon guilty of murder

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Elianne Andam: Teenager who stabbed 15-year-old to death in Croydon guilty of murder

The teenager who stabbed 15-year-old Elianne Andam to death in a row over a teddy bear has been found guilty of murder.

Hassan Sentamu, 18, attacked Elianne with a kitchen knife in “white-hot anger at having been disrespected” after she stood up for his ex-girlfriend, the Old Bailey heard.

He had been due to return items including a teddy bear to Elianne’s friend following their break-up but instead came armed, wearing two pairs of gloves and a facemask.

Elianne collapsed outside the Whitgift Centre in central Croydon, south London, after being stabbed four times in what police described as a “frenzied” attack, which was caught on CCTV, on 27 September 2023.

Body worn footage of Hassan Sentamu being arrested following the fatal stabbing of Elianne Andam. Pic: Met Police
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Sentamu was arrested within 90 minutes. Pic: Met Police

Her friend compared Sentamu to a character from the Netflix crime drama Top Boy and said Elianne had her hand out begging him to “stop”.

He threw his gloves and mask in a bin and hid the knife in a garden but was arrested within 90 minutes after police stopped a bus near his home in New Addington.

Sentamu, who was 17 at the time, admitted manslaughter but denied murder on the basis of “loss of control” because he has autism.

There were sobs in the public as he was found guilty by a majority verdict of 10 to two, while he stood propping himself up with both arms in the dock and crying.

He was also found guilty on a charge of having a blade. Sentamu had also denied this charge – claiming he had a lawful reason for carrying it.

Grime artist Stormzy was among thousands of mourners who gathered at a candlelit vigil after Elianne – who went to the private Old Palace of John Whitgift School – was killed, and there is now a memorial to her at the scene.

Stormzy
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Stormzy among mourners. Pic: PA

‘I’ll do it again’

The month after Elianne’s death, Sentamu got into a row with a fellow inmate in youth custody and when he was accused of killing girls, said: “I’ll do it again,” the court heard.

“I’ll do it to your mum,” he said. “Do you want to end up like her, six feet under? I’ll do the same again.”

Sentamu, who came to the UK aged five with his mother and three sisters, had a history of violent and aggressive behaviour, as well as making repeated threats to take his own life.

He was given a police caution after pulling a knife out in class and telling a teacher he wanted to kill himself when he was just 12 years old.

Sentamu was expelled from one school after threatening another child with a knife and in other incidents put girls in headlocks and threatened to stab a student with a pair of scissors.

While in foster care he threatened to harm a cat or chop off its tail, the court heard.

Elianne with her friends. Pic: Met Police/PA
Image:
Elianne with her friends. Pic: Met Police/PA

‘I can’t let this slide’

Weeks before he killed Elianne, who wanted to become a human rights lawyer, Sentamu said: “The real me is evil, dark and miserable” in a message to a friend.

The day before the attack, he had met Elianne and her friend, who had recently split up with him, at the Whitgift Centre, where the girls “teased” him and his ex-girlfriend splashed him with water.

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Attack caught on CCTV

Sentamu, who was studying sports science at Croydon College, later sent what police called a “chilling” message to a friend saying: “I can’t let this slide bro.”

He met Elianne, his ex-girlfriend and another of their friends the following day to swap belongings.

The girl handed him a plastic bag of his clothes, but he did not have her teddy bear as arranged, and Eliane snatched the bag back.

compile of screengrabs from court-released video linked to the trial of Hassan Sentamu accused of fatally stabbing 15-year-old Elianne Andam in Croydon
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Pics: Met Police

Sentamu stabbed Elianne with kitchen knife. Pic: Met Police/PA
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Sentamu stabbed Elianne with a kitchen knife. Pic: Met Police/PA

A Snapchat video shows Elianne smiling and laughing before her expression turned to “abject terror,” jurors were told.

Sentamu pulled the kitchen knife from his trousers and repeatedly stabbed her, plunging the blade 12cm into her neck.

‘He exacted vengeance on a girl running away’

Prosecutor Alex Chalk KC earlier told jurors Sentamu was “angry… having brooded on the insult and he took the knife to the scene to reassert dominance”.

“He exacted vengeance on a young girl clearly running away from him and posing no threat,” he said.

Sentamu, who was diagnosed with autism in 2020, did not give evidence.

His barrister Pavlos Panayi KC said it was not disputed the killing was a “grotesque overreaction” but the “central issue” in the case was Sentamu’s autism history and symptoms.

Metropolitan Police Detective Chief Inspector Becky Woodsford said it was a “violent, aggressive and frenzied knife attack on a young girl”.

“Elianne was doing what was right, she was standing up for her friend,” she added.

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Russian drone shot down near presidential palace during Starmer’s Ukraine visit

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Russian drone shot down near presidential palace during Starmer's Ukraine visit

Sir Keir Starmer’s visit to the presidential palace in Kyiv was met with a message from Russia when a drone was blasted out of the sky above.

The prime minister was meeting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss the next steps for Ukraine, on Sir Keir’s first visit to Kyiv since his election victory last July.

The sound of anti-aircraft gunfire was audible in the palace courtyard as air sirens warned of possible drone attacks. While air sirens blaring are a daily occurrence in Ukraine, it’s rare for drones to be shot out of the sky over the presidential palace.

One drone was shot down, although eyewitnesses think there were at least two drones operating and suspect they were probably surveillance drones, as the one taken out didn’t explode on impact.

President Zelenskyy gave his Russian enemies short shrift, saying when the drone was detected: “We will say hello to them too.”

Politics latest: UK to give Ukraine new air defence system

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Starmer and Zelenskyy lay flowers at memorial

An audacious move by Moscow, Sir Keir said the drone threat was “a reminder of what Ukraine is facing every day” and that the war was brought about by “Russian aggression”.

The PM reiterated his support for Ukraine’s eventual accession to NATO, and noted the discussion at the NATO summit in Washington last year – when its allies put Ukraine on an “irreversible path” to NATO membership.

However, President Zelenskyy, perhaps with an eye on the incoming Trump administration, was more forthright in his response to the question of Western allies supporting Ukraine’s membership. He told reporters the US, Slovakia, Germany and Hungary “cannot see us in NATO”.

President Trump has recently acknowledged Moscow’s longstanding opposition to Ukraine’s ambition to join NATO, given it would mean, as the president-elect said: “Russia has somebody right on their doorstep, and I can understand their feeling about that.”

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Starmer visits burns victims

‘Nothing is off the table’

This was a news conference big on symbolism as Sir Keir vowed to stand by Ukraine for as long as it takes and put Kyiv in the strongest possible position for negotiations with Russia.

He pledged to work with Ukraine in the months ahead to ensure security guarantees for the country in any ceasefire deal, while also opening the door to possible troop deployments in training or a peacekeeping capacity, saying “nothing is off the table”.

“We must be totally clear – a just and lasting peace comes through strength,” said Sir Keir.

Keir Starmer poses for photos with staff members at a hospital in Kyiv.
Pic: PA
Image:
Keir Starmer poses for photos with staff members at a hospital in Kyiv. Pic: PA

The PM also pledged to send 1,540 artillery barrels to Ukraine as President Zelenskyy called for more weapons, blaming Russia’s advance in the eastern part of Ukraine on the slow supply of weapons.

A new mobile defence system and a ramping up in the training of troops were also promised by Sir Keir.

President Zelenskyy also acknowledged in the news conference that much is uncertain around this conflict and what security guarantees Ukraine might get from its allies ahead of conversations with Trump.

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