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Rishi Sunak’s flagship Rwanda legislation has been approved by MPs, but getting deportation flights off the ground remains far from a done deal.

Speaking the day after he saw off a rebellion from his own MPs over the bill – who wanted it to be more hardline – he has thrown down the gauntlet to the House of Lords to get the “emergency” law passed.

But what exactly happens next, can the bill be changed – and could it even be stopped from becoming law?

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What did Rishi Sunak say?

Speaking from a lectern in Downing Street, Mr Sunak made clear he plans to heap political pressure on the upper chamber of parliament.

He said: “It’s now time for the Lords to pass this Bill. This is an urgent national priority.

“The treaty with Rwanda is signed and the legislation which deems Rwanda a safe country has been passed unamended in our elected chamber.

“There is now only one question. Will the opposition in the appointed House of Lords try and frustrate the will of the people as expressed by the elected House? Or will they get on board and do the right thing?”

He added: “Will the House of Lords understand the country’s frustration, see the will of the elected House and move as quickly as we have to support this legislation so we can get it on the statute books and then get flights up and running?”

What next?

After passing its third reading in the Commons, the bill has to go through the exact same processes in the House of Lords.

This includes an initial vote – and then if it passes, peers can propose amendments. These would then be debated and voted on.

Due to the Lords regulating itself, the restrictions on the amount of time that can be taken to debate are looser, and so things can move slightly slower than in the Commons.

Unlike in the Commons, the Lords is not bound in the same way by government restrictions on what can be discussed or how long for.

After the House votes on what substantial amendments it wants to make, members “tidy-up” the bill to make sure there are no loopholes.

It is at this point that “ping pong” begins; the bill will bounce between the Commons and Lords, with each house voting on whether to accept the other’s amendments.

There is a potential that the Lords could delay the bill until the next general election – but that is something which will be covered in a later section.

It is worth noting the government does not have a majority in the Lords – with 270 of 785 peers belonging to the Conservative Party.

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‘Is your country safe?’

Read more:
Rwanda vote is a win for Sunak, but it has come at a cost

What is the Rwanda plan and why is it controversial?
Sunak denies doubting Rwanda scheme when chancellor

Over what timeline could this proceed?

Another question is when the Lords will start considering the bill, and when voting will take place.

As with many things to do with the Westminster parliamentary process, very little is set in stone and the best we can do is take an educated guess.

One Labour source set out their expectation of how the next few months will go.

They said the earliest the Lords could have a debate and a vote is in the week starting 29 January.

Members of the House of Lords await the start of the State Opening of Parliament, in the House of Lords at the Palace of Westminster in London. Picture date: Tuesday November 7, 2023.
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The House of Lords – seen here during the King’s speech – could block the law

The next step – when the upper chamber debates the bill and any potential changes – could take place between 12 February and 14 February, when the Commons is in recess.

The next set of voting in the Lords would likely take place towards the end of February or the start of March.

Ping pong would likely begin in the second week of March. If the government gets the bill passed, then it is likely to take a few months for things to be put in place for flights to Rwanda to take off.

Could the Lords block the bill?

In short, yes.

In the first instance, members could simply vote down the legislation, although that is quite unlikely.

Labour has also indicated it plans to abide by the convention of not blocking laws passed in the Commons.

It could also be held up during the ping pong stage.

This would see the two houses adding and removing each other’s amendments on repeated occasions.

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The Lords’ ability to hold up legislation is normally balanced by the fact that a government can reintroduce a bill in a subsequent parliamentary session – which would mean after a King’s Speech – and pass it without the Lords’ consent.

But this step – included in the Parliament Act – also requires a minimum of a year between the first Commons vote on the legislation, and it passing the same House in the subsequent parliament.

Because an election needs to be called in December this year at the latest, it is possible for the Lords to wait out the clock until then – preventing the use of the Parliament Act.

In what may prove a difficult development for the government, a committee set up to evaluate international treaties on behalf of the Lords has recommended the treaty upon which the Safety of Rwanda Bill is based should not be ratified.

The International Agreements Committee said ratification “should wait until parliament is satisfied that the protections it provides have been fully implemented since parliament is being asked to make a judgement, based on the treaty, about whether Rwanda is safe“.

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Coinbase crypto lobby urges Congress to back major crypto bill

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Coinbase crypto lobby urges Congress to back major crypto bill

Coinbase crypto lobby urges Congress to back major crypto bill

US House lawmakers have been urged by 65 crypto organizations to pass the CLARITY Act, which would hand most policing of crypto to the CFTC.

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Reform UK poses ‘very serious threat’ to Labour, Welsh first minister warns

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Reform UK poses 'very serious threat' to Labour, Welsh first minister warns

The threat from Reform in Wales is “very serious”, the country’s Labour leader said as exclusive polling revealed Nigel Farage’s party is the first choice for Welsh voters.

Speaking to Beth Rigby on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast, Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan said: “We think the threat from Reform is a very serious threat.

“I think it is important people recognise that things that we see every day in our lives in Wales may be snatched away from us, and the kind of stability that we’ve had for a long time.”

Eluned Morgan
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Eluned Morgan spoke to Beth Rigby on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast

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Ms Morgan admitted “we’ve got a lot of work to do to get voters back” ahead of the May 2026 Senedd (Welsh parliament) elections – something backed up by exclusive polling that reveals Reform is beating Welsh Labour, who have been in power in the Senedd since 1999.

A More in Common poll for Sky News found 28% of people in Wales would vote for Reform if an election for the Senedd was called tomorrow.

That was followed closely by nationalist party Plaid Cymru on 26%, Labour with 23%, the Conservatives on 10%, Lib Dems with 7%, the Green Party with 4% and 2% for other parties or independent candidates.

Eluned Morgan said she would never go into a coalition with Reform
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Eluned Morgan said she would never go into a coalition with Reform

Of those who voted for Labour at last year’s general election, less than half (48%) would vote for them again, while 15% would go to Plaid Cymru and 11% to Reform – although 13% were undecided.

A total of 883 people representative of the Welsh population were asked from 18 June to 3 July.

Last month, Mr Farage told an event in the steel town of Port Talbot, he would reopen Welsh coal mines to provide fuel for blast furnaces.

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Beth Rigby spoke to Welsh First Minister and Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan
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Beth Rigby spoke to Welsh First Minister and Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan

Ms Morgan said she will not be “chasing Reform down a path… because those aren’t my values”.

“What we’ll be doing is offering a very clear alternative, which is about bringing communities together,” she said.

“I think it’s really important that we’re authentic and we’re clear with people about what we stand for.

“I think we’ve got to lead with our values so we’re about bringing communities together not dividing them and I do think that’s what reform is interested in is dividing people and people do need to make choices on things like that.”

She admitted “there is a possibility” Reform could be the largest party in the Senedd “and that is really concerning”.

Nigel Farage
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Nigel Farage in Wales

However, she said the way voting in Wales works means it would be “difficult for them to rule by themselves”.

Would she go into coalition with Reform?

“I wouldn’t touch Reform with a barge pole,” she said.

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‘A threat to national security’: Fears drones could be used to lift inmates out of prisons

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Drones are sending 'overwhelming amounts' of drugs into prisons - and could help inmates escape, report warns

Sophisticated drones sending “overwhelming amounts” of drugs and weapons into prisons represent a threat to national security, according to an annual inspection report by the prisons watchdog.

HMP chief inspector of prisons Charlie Taylor has warned criminal gangs are targeting jails and making huge profits selling contraband to a “vulnerable and bored” prison population.

The watchdog boss reiterated his concerns about drones making regular deliveries to two Category A jails, HMP Long Lartin and HMP Manchester, which hold “the most dangerous men in the country”, including terrorists.

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Ex-convict: Prison is ‘birthing bigger criminals’

Mr Taylor said “the police and prison service have in effect ceded the airspace” above these two high-security prisons, which he said was compromising the “safety of staff, prisoners, and ultimately that of the public”.

“The possibility now whereby we’re seeing packages of up to 10kg brought in by serious organised crime means that in some prisons there is now a menu of drugs available,” he said. “Anything from steroids to cannabis, to things like spice and cocaine.”

“Drone technology is moving fast… there is a level of risk that’s posed by drones that I think is different from what we’ve seen in the past,” warned the chief inspector – who also said there’s a “theoretical risk” that a prisoner could escape by being carried out of a jail by a drone.

He urged the prison service to “get a grip” of the issue, stating: “We’d like to see the government, security services, coming together, using technology, using intelligence, so that this risk doesn’t materialise.”

The report highlights disrepair at prisons around the country
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The report highlights disrepair at prisons around the country

The report makes clear that physical security – such as netting, windows and CCTV – is “inadequate” in some jails, including Manchester, with “inexperienced staff” being “manipulated”.

Mr Taylor said there are “basic” measures which could help prevent the use of drones, such as mowing the lawn, “so we don’t get packages disguised as things like astro turf”.

Responding to the report, the Prison Advice and Care Trust (PACT) said: “The ready access to drugs is deeply worrying and is undermining efforts to create places of rehabilitation.”

Mr Taylor’s report found that overcrowding continues to be what he described as a “major issue”, with increasing levels of violence against staff and between prisoners, combined with a lack of purposeful activity.

Some 20% of adult men responding to prisoner surveys said they felt unsafe at the time of the inspection, increasing to 30% in the high security estate.

Andrea Coomber, chief executive of the Howard League for Penal Reform, said: “This report is a checklist for all the reasons the government must prioritise reducing prison numbers, urgently.

“Sentencing reform is essential, and sensible steps to reduce the prison population would save lives.”

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May: Male prison capacity running at 99%

The report comes after the government pledged to accept most of the recommendations proposed in the independent review of sentencing policy, with the aim of freeing up around 9,500 spaces.

Those measures won’t come into effect until spring 2026.

Prisons Minister Lord Timpson said Mr Taylor’s findings show “the scale of the crisis” the government “inherited”, with “prisons dangerously full, rife with drugs and violence”.

He said: “After just 500 prison places added in 14 years, we’re building 14,000 extra – with 2,400 already delivered – and reforming sentencing to ensure we never run out of space again.

“We’re also investing £40m to bolster security, alongside stepping up cooperation with police to combat drones and stop the contraband which fuels violence behind bars.”

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