Sean Bell: The West is now embroiled in widening Middle East conflict – but is it winnable?
Warfare is a brutal and unforgiving undertaking.
However, the primary responsibility of any government is the protection of its people and its national interests, so military capability is a cornerstone of national capability.
But, military forces provide options and are a means to an end – not an end in itself – and when all other diplomatic and political options have been exhausted, the military create the security conditions in which political objectives can be realised.
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However, without clear political direction, the carnage and devastation that military forces incur lacks purpose. The consequences, as are flowing from Israel’s continued ground assault of Gaza, are profound.
On that fateful day – 7 October 2023 – when Hamas forces killed over 1,200 Israelis and took 240 hostages, the US and UK resolutely supported Israel’s right to self-defence.
The resulting Israeli military response was immediate and intensive, starting with aerial bombardments followed by a continuing ground offensive.
With Palestinian deaths now exceeding 24,000 and over 60,000 injuries, according to Gaza’s health ministry – two-thirds of those believed to be children – the Israel Defence Forces claims that its military response seeks to defeat Hamas and ensure the long-term security of Israel.
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However, despite most of the international community believing that the only long-term solution for regional stability is a two-state solution, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has now made clear that “Israel must have security control over all the territory west of the Jordan”. In essence, a one-state solution with Israel in control.
It remains unclear how such an arrangement would work in practice without subjugation of the Palestinian people. And that does not appear to be the foundations of a lasting peace.
Israel expects its military action to continue for months to come, but where is the political strategy to underpin it?
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Political ambiguity is not unique to Israel. The UK and US governments are also struggling to maintain a coherent response to the crisis in Gaza.
Hamas is no match militarily for the IDF, and, although the “Gaza Metro” – the labyrinth of Hamas tunnels underneath Gaza – will slow IDF progress, given time the IDF will prevail.
This is why the US vetoed the recent UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate end to hostilities, ostensibly to allow time for Israel to achieve its objectives.
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But in the same way the US and the UK support Israel, so Iran supports Hamas. By supporting the Houthi attacks on the Red Sea merchant shipping, Iran is increasing pressure on the US to stop the war in Gaza.
This is an inconvenient truth for the US and UK governments.
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Indeed, the UK prime minister said the US/UK strikes on Houthi military capability were “completely unrelated” to the Israel-Gaza conflict, rather “a direct response to the Houthis’ attacks on international shipping” and that “we shouldn’t fall for their malign narrative”.
Yet hours later Lord Cameron met Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on Wednesday at the World Economic Forum where the Iranian position was made clear: stop the war in Gaza and the Houthi attacks will cease.
Directing UK military forces to attack Houthi targets is a serious escalation – the use of military force to achieve a political objective.
The stated UK political “end-state” is to ensure freedom of passage for maritime vessels in the Red Sea, but the only way to achieve that objective is to tackle the cause, not the symptom.
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Although some form of military action against the Houthis was probably inevitable, it was also unlikely to “solve the problem”.
Indeed, the continued Houthi assaults bear testament to the fact that military action is unlikely to stop the attacks.
It seems very unlikely that the West could countenance a one-state, Israel-led, solution to the Gaza war, yet by providing unequivocal political support to Israel, and its intended political ambitions, the West has found itself embroiled in military action and a widening regional conflict.
And one that, in the case of the Houthis, most military experts predict is unwinnable.
Where is the grand-strategic political leadership? A solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will not be achievable by the main protagonists – the scars run too deep for compromise.
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Analysis of Houthi attack on US-owned ship
However, unless international political leadership engages to create the foundations for a lasting two-state solution, the West risks being an enabler for Israel to impose its own ambitions, which will almost certainly prove untenable in the long term.
Meanwhile, the West is now part of a wider regional confrontation without clear political objectives beyond deterring the Houthis, which appears at best a naive ambition.
Where is the international diplomacy and political gravitas for which the UK was once famous? The instrument of last resort has now been unleashed, but to what end?
Pro-Western candidate Nicusor Dan has unexpectedly beaten hard-right populist George Simion in the Romanian presidential election.
Mr Simion, 38, and his rival – a centrist who’s mayor of Bucharest – faced off in the second round of the contest.
According to the official tally, Mr Dan was leading by nearly nine percentage points with more than 98% of the votes counted.
Pic: Reuters
Mr Dan and his supporters celebrated the exit polls. Pic: Reuters
After exit polls suggested he wasn’t going to win, Trump-supporting Mr Simion rejected the result and said estimates put him 400,000 votes ahead.
Speaking after voting ended, Mr Simion said his election was “clear” as he posted on Facebook: “I won!!! I am the new President of Romania and I am giving back the power to the Romanians!”
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Romania’s last election was annulled after its highest court ruled the leading candidate, nationalist Calin Georgescu, should be disqualified due to claims of electoral interference by Russia.
The result is surprising because in the first round, 38-year-old Mr Simion, founder of the right-wing Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), took 40.96% of the vote – almost 20 points ahead.
George Simion rejected the polls but official counting saw him slip behind. Pic: Reuters
Supporters of Mr Dan celebrated on the streets of the capital Bucharest. Pic: AP
An opinion poll on Friday had it much closer, but still suggested the two men were virtually tied.
Mr Dan, a 55-year-old mathematician, is running as an independent and has pledged to clamp down on corruption.
He is also staunchly pro-EU and NATO, and has said Romania’s support for Ukraine is vital for its own security.
When voting closed at 9pm local time, 11.6 million people – about 64% of eligible voters – had cast ballots. About 1.64 million Romanians living abroad also took part.
About 11.6 million people – 64% of eligible voters – cast ballots. Pic: AP
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The election is being closely watched across Europe amid a rise of support for President Donald Trump.
After polls closed, Mr Dan said “elections are not about politicians” but about communities and that in the latest vote “a community of Romanians has won, a community that wants a profound change in Romania”.
“When Romania goes through difficult times, let us remember the strength of this Romanian society,” he said.
“There is also a community that lost today’s elections. A community that is rightly outraged by the way politics has been conducted in Romania up to now.”
Israel has said it will allow a “basic quantity of food” into the besieged enclave of Gaza to avoid a “starvation crisis” following a near three-month blockade.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said the decision was “based on the operational need to enable the expansion of the military operation to defeat Hamas”.
Gaza, where local authorities say more than 53,000 people have died in Israel’s 19-month campaign, has been under a complete blockade on humanitarian aid since 2 March.
It comes as global food security experts warn of famine across the territory and after a UN-backed report issued last Monday which warned one in five people in Gaza were facing starvation.
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The statement from the prime minister’s office said it would “allow a basic quantity of food to be brought in for the population in order to make certain that no starvation crisis develops in the Gaza Strip”.
“Such a crisis would endanger the continuation of Operation ‘Gideon’s Chariots’ to defeat Hamas,” it added.
“Israel will act to deny Hamas’s ability to take control of the distribution of humanitarian assistance in order to ensure that the assistance does not reach the Hamas terrorists.”
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Gaza is ‘a slaughterhouse’ says surgeon
It comes after a British surgeon working in Gaza said in a video to Sky News the enclave is now “a slaughterhouse” amid Israeli bombardment.
Israel has just ramped up its offensive in Gaza, with Palestinian health officials reporting at least 130 people were killed overnight into Sunday.
Israel Defence Forces (IDF) confirmed troops had begun “extensive ground operations throughout the northern and southern Gaza Strip”.
The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza said 464 people had died in Israeli military strikes in the week to Sunday.
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In a statement on Sunday, IDF said its air force struck “over 670 Hamas terror targets throughout the Gaza Strip to disrupt enemy preparations and support ground operations” over the past week.
Israel has launched an escalation to increase pressure on Hamas, seize territory, displace Palestinians to the south and take greater control over the distribution of aid.
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A British surgeon working in southern Gaza has compared the region to a “slaughterhouse” because of the daily bombardment from Israeli forces.
Dr Tom Potokar, who is based at the European Hospital near Khan Younis in southern Gaza, offered his assessment of Israel’s military offensive after Palestinian health officials reported at least 130 people were killed overnight into Sunday.
Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have confirmed their troops have begun “extensive ground operations throughout the northern and southern Gaza Strip”.
In a video, Dr Potokar said it was “another day of devastation here in Gaza”, adding: “The stories coming from the north… absolutely horrific… particularly around the Indonesian Hospital.”
“I mean, it’s difficult to describe in words what’s happening here… [with the] constant sound of bombardment jets overhead.
“If Cambodia was the killing fields, then Gaza now is the slaughterhouse.”
Mourners at a funeral of Palestinians killed in Israeli strikes, at Al Shifa hospital, in Gaza. Pic: Reuters
His reference to Cambodia’s killing fields refers to when more than a million people were murdered in mass executions and buried by the extreme communist guerrilla group, the Khmer Rouge, under Pol Pot, between 1975 and 1979.
The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza said 464 people had died in Israeli military strikes in the week to Sunday.
In a statement on Sunday, IDF said its air force struck “over 670 Hamas terror targets throughout the Gaza Strip to disrupt enemy preparations and support ground operations” over the past week.
A family in grief at a funeral on Sunday in Deir al Balah, central Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Dr Potokar described the impact on those on the ground, saying: “We’ve been operating all morning so far and [treating] awful explosive injuries… [including] one young woman with leg fracture and shoulder fracture and a large wound on her buttock, who came in yesterday and is not yet aware that everyone in our family was killed in the onslaught.”
Israel has launched an escalation of its war in Gaza to ramp up pressure on Hamas, seize territory, displace Palestinians to the south and take greater control over the distribution of aid.
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Israel ramps up bombing in Gaza
On Sunday, it announced and launched “extensive” new ground operations in Gaza.
It came after airstrikes killed more than 100 people, including dozens of children, overnight and into Sunday, hospitals and medics said, and forced northern Gaza’s main hospital to close.
A spokesperson for the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza said: “Complete families were wiped off the civil registration record by Israeli bombardment”.
The ministry also said the bombardment had forced the closure of the Indonesian Hospital, the main hospital serving people in northern Gaza.
Nasser hospital, in the southern city of Khan Younis, said more than 48 people – mostly women and children – were killed in the area which includes tents sheltering displaced people.
In Deir al Balah, in central Gaza, at least 12 people were killed in three separate strikes, according to Al Aqsa Martyrs Hospital and the Nuseirat camp’s Awda Hospital.
Meanwhile, the Gaza health ministry and the Palestinian Civil Defence – which operates under the Hamas-run government – reported that 19 people were killed in several strikes in Jabalia in northern Gaza.
The Israeli military had no immediate comment on the strikes.
Read more from Sky News:
How Israel has escalated Gaza bombing campaign
Ceasefire talks are taking place in Qatar this weekend – with Israel saying they involve discussions on ending the war as well as a truce and hostage deal.
A statement from the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said any lasting truce must include the demilitarisation of Gaza as well as the exile of Hamas militants.
But a senior Israeli official added there had been little progress so far during talks in Qatar’s capital Doha.
Sky News Arabia reported Hamas had proposed freeing about half its Israeli hostages in exchange for a two-month ceasefire and the release of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
A Palestinian official close to the discussions said: “Hamas is flexible about the number of hostages it can free, but the problem has always been over Israel’s commitment to end the war.”
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