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It’s a week since Donald Trump stormed to victory in Iowa.

The polls predicted he would do well, but that didn’t make this first test of his re-electability any less remarkable.

The four-times indicted, twice impeached, election-denying, global agitator won in all but one of the state’s 99 counties.

It was unprecedented on many levels. He secured 51% of the vote, winning by a margin of 30 points.

For the former president’s many supporters, it represents the beginning of his second coming. His road back to the White House is clearer, they think.

But many in America and well beyond are baffled and alarmed. Why is a man so divisive, so polarising, so surrounded by chaos, so popular still?

As America’s media pundits packed up their glitzy pop-up Iowa studios and headed east back to their metropolitan bases, I headed west into the heart of the US.

I wanted to understand the enduring draw of Donald Trump.

Donald Trump holds a rally in advance of the New Hampshire presidential primary election in Rochester
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Donald Trump at a rally before the New Hampshire presidential primary


Over the past few years, I’ve spent plenty of time at Mr Trump’s rallies.

They are more like rock concerts than political events and they are where you’ll find the diehards; the people who’ll seemingly do anything for Mr Trump.

They are the people for whom he is more than a political leader. He’s worshipped.

There is genuinely a strange gravity at the rallies. Conspiracies swirl. Truth and fiction blur. Reason is absent.

I wanted to get beyond that.

The people at the rallies represent his base of support but they alone didn’t win him the White House before and they won’t do it again.

He won the White House in 2016 by convincing a broader group that he was the answer.

In 2020, he failed to convince enough Americans that he deserved another four years, losing to Joe Biden.

But now he hopes Iowa is the indicator that he can turn it all around again this November.

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Donald Trump won comfortably in Iowa

Getting beyond the base

To the west of Iowa is Nebraska. It’s a conservative heartland. Farming is the main industry.

It’s the start of a journey to understand the broader and apparently enduring appeal of Mr Trump – beyond the rallies.

First stop is the small town of Prague and a meeting with farmer Mike Kubik.

His business is grain, his politics is conservative and his life is good.

“I’ve been here basically my whole life. Nebraska born and bred,” he tells me as we tour his snow-covered land on his all-American quad buggy.

“Life is excellent,” he adds. “I love my job – I’ve never had a bad day.”

Mike Kubik says it feels like the Biden government 'doesn't seem to care'
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Mike Kubik says it feels like the Biden government ‘doesn’t seem to care’

Mr Kubik’s experience is a reflection of Nebraska’s economy.

The midwestern state has among the nation’s largest gains in personal income, and unemployment is low.

He is happy with his son’s education at the local school. It’s the good life.

Economically his experience mirrors the national story, too. America is booming but it’s not trickling down; people aren’t feeling it.

“Our economy is going down,” Mr Kubik tells me from across his kitchen table.

“We’ve more than doubled our fuel costs. Our chemicals have gone up, our fertilizer has gone up, the cost of equipment has gone up. Food is terrible, and our government doesn’t seem to care.”

Mr Kubik’s story reflects the puzzle of American politics right now.

There is a disconnect between perception and reality in America.

Mr Kubik’s lot may be good, but it just felt better before. There is a lingering nostalgia compounded by stubborn inflation.

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A sign promoting Donald Trump's popular 'Make America Great Again' slogan in Nebraska
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A sign promoting Donald Trump’s popular ‘Make America Great Again’ slogan in Nebraska

Nostalgia for Trump?

Mr Kubik adds: “Our government is not getting deals done, the export – our grain. It is hurting our bottom line, our prices are dropping.”

And then a view I will hear over and over on my journey ahead: “Trump put America first. There are some things that I didn’t agree with, but overall, he leads with leadership. He’s a businessman. He’ll get a deal done.”

As we talk, Mr Kubik conveys a multi-layered nervousness – about the economy, about the “woke” direction of the nation, and about global security – all of which seem far removed from his good Nebraskan life.

Mr Kubik points out that no wars began under Mr Trump.

President Biden is managing two and is exposing the limited worth of American leadership – with Israel-Gaza, Russia-Ukraine and China’s century-defining rise.

He presents an argument you hear over and over among supporters of the former president – that Russian President Vladimir Putin wouldn’t have dared invade Ukraine with Mr Trump in the White House – a point Mr Trump likes to run with, probably because it’s neatly unprovable.

“Donald Trump has power to say ‘don’t do it’. And the thing is, they believe that he’ll enforce it,” Mr Kubik says.

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From 16 Jan: ‘I’ll solve Ukraine and Israel situation’

Trump ‘not afraid’ of ‘chaos’

At one level or another, most here are in agriculture.

Deeper into Nebraska, my next conversation is with crop scientist Trey Stephens.

He helps the farmers to make a profit.

“I think now in these last four years, I haven’t felt a lot of attention to agriculture from this administration,” he tells me.

But quickly, Mr Stephens conveys that it’s about more than just business and the economy.

Trey Stephens says it always felt like Trump was 'in control'
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Trey Stephens says it always felt like Trump was ‘in control’

“It always felt like Trump was in control and, you know, right now, these last four years, it’s kind of like who is in control?” he asks.

“What about the chaos that seems to follow Trump?” I ask.

“Yeah. I think I mean, in order for change to happen, sometimes chaos ensues. And Trump is not afraid of that,” Mr Stephens says.

He returns to the same thought repeatedly in our conversation – that Mr Trump isn’t a politician. He was elected to shake things up and to return power to the American people.

And the divisiveness?

“I try to remove myself from a lot of the things he says and focus on the things that he does,” Mr Stephens adds. “If it was my wish, I would have a businessman that’s strong like Trump, but maybe he just doesn’t say as much.”

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Mark Stone spoke to Trump supporters in snow-covered Nebraska

‘I miss the America I grew up in’

As the interstate cuts south, Nebraska becomes Kansas, but the politics doesn’t shift much.

The weekly auction in the town of Manhattan draws farmers and their cattle from across the state.

It’s an all-American scene – cowboys in their stetsons. Cliched? No. This is as real as it gets – a snapshot from the very middle of America.

Among the crowd, I meet rancher Jamie Grollmes.

She says: “When Trump was in office, it was a lot more steady. You didn’t see the highs and lows. It was a lot more consistent, you knew what to expect. With Mr Biden we’re on a rollercoaster in terms of our markets.”

Jamie Grollmes says things were more 'steady' under Trump
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Jamie Grollmes says things were more ‘steady’ under Trump

But what about Mr Trump the man, I ask. He’s pretty unique?

“He annoys me,” she replies. “I think he needs to learn to keep his mouth shut on some things. I think he’s very good on business, but I think he says some things he shouldn’t and sometimes I think he needs to keep his mouth shut.”

A few seats away is retired rancher Tom Massey. His baseball cap reflects his politics.

“I miss the America I grew up in,” it says.

Retired rancher Tom Massey is wearing a cap that echoes the feelings of many Americans
Image:
Retired rancher Tom Massey is wearing a cap that echoes the feelings of many Americans

Who’s the answer, I ask. Who is going to make America better?

“Well, I think Trump will change things around if he gets back in, I really do,” he answers. “I think he’s going to get our border closed up, get things back to normal.

“I think he’s not a politician, I think he’s a businessman. When he came in the first time, he changed a lot.”

The man running the auction is something of a local celebrity. Andrew Sylvester is an award-winning auctioneer.

We sit for a coffee in the auction hall cafe where he reflects on two Americas, far apart.

He says: “We live here in the middle of the United States. I think that people on both the east and west coast, where there’s high populations, I think they probably forget where their food comes from.

“To them, their food comes from the grocery store, when in fact, we grow it right here in what they call flyover states.”

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Can Trump rival Nikki Haley take New Hampshire?

Like others, he sees flaws in Mr Trump. And he’s baffled at America’s inability to find fresh candidates.

“I don’t know why the Democrats and Republicans can’t come up with younger candidates or candidates that don’t have any baggage,” he says.

“Biden’s side obviously has baggage. And Donald Trump seems to be in and out of court and there’s issues there. But we’re going to vote with whoever the nominees are.”

“And for you, that means Trump’s the man if he’s the nominee?” I ask.

“Absolutely. Absolutely. I’ll vote for Donald Trump again.”

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Putin wasn’t at the White House, but his influence was – the moments which reveal his hold over Trump

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Putin wasn't at the White House, but his influence was - the moments which reveal his hold over Trump

Vladimir Putin wasn’t at the White House but his influence clearly was. At times, it dominated the room.

There were three key moments that revealed the Russian president‘s current hold over Donald Trump.

The first was in the Oval Office. Sitting alongside Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the US president told reporters: “I don’t think you need a ceasefire.”

Ukraine talks latest: Zelenskyy ‘ready to meet’ Putin after Trump summit

Vladimir Putin shaking hands with Donald Trump when they met last week. Pic: Reuters
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Vladimir Putin shaking hands with Donald Trump when they met last week. Pic: Reuters

It was a stunning illustration of Mr Trump’s about-face in his approach to peace. For the past six months, a ceasefire has been his priority, but after meeting Mr Putin in Alaska, suddenly it’s not.

Confirmation that he now views the war through Moscow’s eyes.

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Trump applauds Putin and shares ride in ‘The Beast’ last week

The second was the format itself, with Mr Trump reverting to his favoured ask-what-you-like open-ended Q&A.

In Alaska, Mr Putin wasn’t made to take any questions – most likely, because he didn’t want to. But here, Mr Zelenskyy didn’t have a choice. He was subjected to a barrage of them to see if he’d learnt his lesson from last time.

It was a further demonstration of the special status Mr Trump seems to afford to Mr Putin.

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The third was their phone call. Initially, President Trump said he’d speak to the Kremlin leader after his meeting with European leaders. But it turned out to be during it.

A face-to-face meeting with seven leaders was interrupted for a phone call with one – as if Mr Trump had to check first with Mr Putin, before continuing his discussions.

We still don’t know the full details of the peace proposal that’s being drawn up, but all this strongly suggests that it’s one sketched out by Russia. The White House is providing the paper, but the Kremlin is holding the pen.

Read more:
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Trump has taken peace talks a distance not seen since the war began

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Trump, Zelenskyy and the suit: What happened?

For Moscow, the aim now is to keep Mr Trump on their path to peace, which is settlement first, ceasefire later.

It believes that’s the best way of securing its goals, because it has more leverage so long as the fighting continues.

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But Mr Putin will be wary that Mr Trump is pliable and can easily change his mind, depending on the last person he spoke to.

So to ensure that his sympathies aren’t swayed, and its red lines remain intact, Russia will be straining to keep its voice heard.

On Monday, for example, the Russian foreign ministry was quick to condemn recent comments from the UK government that it would be ready to send troops to help enforce any ceasefire.

It described the idea as “provocative” and “predatory”.

Moscow is trying to drown out European concerns by portraying itself as the party that wants peace the most, and Kyiv (and Europe) as the obstacle.

But while Mr Zelenskyy has agreed to a trilateral meeting, the Kremlin has not. After the phone call between Mr Putin and Mr Trump, it said the leaders discussed “raising the level of representatives” in the talks between Russia and Ukraine. No confirmation to what level.

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Trump brokers Putin and Zelenskyy meeting

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Trump brokers Putin and Zelenskyy meeting

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Donald Trump wants to set up a face-to-face meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. How would that work? And would it accelerate peace in Ukraine?

Zelenskyy and other European leaders made their way to Washington DC. What was their goal? To make sure Trump is still on their side – and to make sure he’s not got too close to Putin and his plans to annex parts of Ukraine after the pair met in Alaska.

How much of a turning point was the White House summit in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?

If you’ve got a question you’d like the Trump100 team to answer, you can email it to trump100@sky.uk.

You can also watch all episodes – including the interview with Tim – on our YouTube channel.

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We are further away from peace now than we were two weeks ago

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We are further away from peace now than we were two weeks ago

It’s always wise to let the dust settle before reaching conclusions with this presidency.

But on the face of it we are further away from peace now than we were two weeks ago.

The consensus that was held back then was that Vladimir Putin would only relent under maximum pressure. He does not want slivers of territory. He wants the whole of Ukraine extinguished and absorbed into his greater Russia.

Ukraine talks latest: Trump sets up Zelenskyy-Putin meeting

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What’s next for Ukraine?

To stop him, allies agreed an immediate ceasefire was necessary, along with much more painful pressure, namely sanctions hitting his oil industry. Europeans and Republicans in Congress agree on that.

Then Alaska and Donald Trump’s U-turn. No ceasefire and no more severe sanctions. So less pressure.

Yesterday’s reality TV diplomatic circus in Washington has not shifted him on that stance, so he stays it seems now aligned with Mr Putin on those crucial points.

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Starmer: This needs to be a lasting deal

Making matters worse for Ukraine, allies seem to be accepting it will have to give up land taken by force.

They sweeten the pill by saying of course only Ukraine can decide whether or not to cede territory, but there is now enormous pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to do so.

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In return there is nebulous and vague talk of security guarantees. European leaders are seizing on the fact Mr Trump did not rule out American troops being involved and hinted at US support for post-war security arrangements.

But that is little consolation for Ukrainians. They point out this president changes his mind as often as his socks and goes back on commitments, even those enshrined in international treaties.

The best that can be said for the White House meeting is it sets up more such meetings.

Read more:
Five key takeaways from the White House Ukraine summit
Trump has taken peace talks a distance not seen since the war began

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Much of yesterday’s events were focused on stroking President Trump’s ego. Many here in Kyiv would prefer he was reminded of a few hard facts about this war. Mr Putin cannot be trusted. Mr Putin wants the end of Ukraine. Mr Putin will only relent under maximum pressure.

Protracted international diplomacy may suit Mr Trump’s craving for attention, but they fear it will only take us further away from peace.

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