Commodity markets are in a ‘super squeeze’ — and higher prices could be here to stay
SUIXI, CHINA – DECEMBER 30: An employee works on the production line of aluminum foil at a workshop of Anhui Limu New Material Technology Co., Ltd on December 30, 2023 in Suixi County, Huaibei City, Anhui Province of China. (Photo by Li Xin/VCG via Getty Images)
Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images
Global commodity markets are in a “super squeeze” amid supply disruptions and lack of investment — and it’s only going to get worse as geopolitical and climate risks exacerbate the situation, HSBC said.
“For some time now we have described global commodity markets as being in a ‘super-squeeze,'” its chief economist Paul Bloxham told CNBC.
A commodity “super squeeze” is denoted by higher prices driven by supply constraints more than a robust growth in demand, he explained.
“If it’s a supply constraint that’s driving high commodity prices, it’s a very different story for global growth,” said via Zoom. Higher prices as a result of a super squeeze are “not as positive.”
“We see the deeper ‘super-squeeze’ factors on the supply-side as still set to play a key role in keeping commodity prices elevated,” he said, outlining factors like political uncertainties, climate change and the lack of investments into the green energy transition.
The super squeeze could be deeper, or more prolonged if geopolitical, climate change or energy transition related supply disruptions are larger than expected.
Paul Bloxham
HSBC chief economist
Geopolitical risks include the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza and the Ukraine war, which have hampered global trade, as seen in shipping disruptions from the recent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
Another reason is climate change, which disrupts supply chains as well as commodities supply, especially in the agricultural space.
“The super squeeze could be deeper, or more prolonged if geopolitical, climate change or energy transition related supply disruptions are larger than expected,” he added.
Lack of investments
The world’s pursuit of a net-zero carbon future is fueling demand for energy transition metals such as copper and nickel, Bloxham pointed out.
However, there are insufficient investments allocated to procuring these critical minerals, leading to a sharper supply squeeze on energy transition metals — in particular copper, aluminum and nickel, he said.
As energy transition ramps up, markets could be looking at a shortage of a slew of metals like graphite, cobalt, copper, nickel and lithium in the next decade, the Energy Transitions Commission said in a report in July.
At the recent COP28 climate change conference, more than 60 countries backed a plan to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, in what is largely deemed as a step forward for energy transition and a further boost in demand for metals required for that transition.
“Large-scale mining projects can take 15-20 years, and the last decade has seen a lack of investment in exploration and production for key energy transition materials,” the report said.
Annual capital investments in these metals averaged $45 billion in the last two decades, and must rise to around $70 billion each year through to 2030 to ensure an ample stream of supply, according to the ETC report.
Commodities are notoriously volatile asset classes, with a long history that is prone to a short squeeze and the current landscape points to more of the same.
Brian Luke
S&P Dow Jones Indices
Without more investment in new capacities, supply will be constrained, HSBC’s Bloxham said, adding that “for any given amount of demand,” it should be expected that commodity prices will stay more elevated than in the past.
“That seems to be playing out across many of the commodities at the moment.”
Technology could also be a gamechanger if a development came along and made it much easier to extract the metals used in the battery space, Bloxham added.
Iron ore site in Australia.
Ian Waldie | Bloomberg via Getty Images
He did not say how long it will take global commodity markets to move out of the squeeze, but one way out of it — which would also push commodity prices lower — is a “bigger and deeper [economic] downturn globally,” he said.
“Commodities are notoriously volatile asset classes, with a long history that is prone to a short squeeze and the current landscape points to more of the same,” said Brian Luke, senior director and head of commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. He highlighted that extreme weather events and geopolitics have also impacted the agricultural and energy commodity baskets.
Metals most impacted
Analysts say metals will likely see the most upside.
Bloxham noted that aside from clean energy metals, iron ore was also on his list due to falling inventory and a lack of investments into expanding capacity.
Iron ore has seen a price jump of over 24% in the last year, according to data from FactSet. The benchmark 62%-grade iron ore last traded at $135.48 per ton.
“The reason why [iron ore] has a sudden squeeze-up is because inventory has been very low,” said Bank of America Securities’ head of Asia -Pacific basic materials, Matty Zhao.
She noted that in spite of China’s property crisis, steel production has continued, fueling demand for iron ore and coking coal, which are integral to steelmaking.
China, which makes around 55% of the world’s steel, produced 874.7 million tons of steel in the first 10 months of 2023 — up 1.4% across the same period in 2022.
What squeeze?
While risks remain, one analyst is of the view that commodity markets are still “adequately supplied” for the most part.
“The commodity markets are currently focused on slumping demand due to the sluggish global economy. As such, there’s not too much concern about supplies,” said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at financial services firm StoneX.
Oil, for one, saw an increase in global oil inventories in 2023.
Some are still hoping that a rebound in Chinese demand will help.
“A resurgence from Asia will go a long way in determining if commodities will have a breakout year,” said S&P’s Luke, adding that 2023 saw a year of unfulfilled demand from China which weighed heavily on commodity markets.
Robinhood stock hit an all-time high Friday as the financial services platform continued to rip higher this year, along with bitcoin and other crypto stocks.
Robinhood, up more than 160% in 2025, hit an intraday high above $101 before pulling back and closing slightly lower.
The reversal came after a Bloomberg report that JPMorgan plans to start charging fintechs for access to customer bank data, a move that could raise costs across the industry.
For fintech firms that rely on thin margins to offer free or low-cost services to customers, even slight disruptions to their cost structure can have major ripple effects. PayPal and Affirm both ended the day nearly 6% lower following the report.
Despite its stellar year, the online broker is facing several headwinds, with a regulatory probe in Florida, pushback over new staking fees and growing friction with one of the world’s most high-profile artificial intelligence companies.
Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier opened a formal investigation into Robinhood Crypto on Thursday, alleging the platform misled users by claiming to offer the lowest-cost crypto trading.
“Robinhood has long claimed to be the best bargain, but we believe those representations were deceptive,” Uthmeier said in a statement.
The probe centers on Robinhood’s use of payment for order flow — a common practice where market makers pay to execute trades — which the AG said can result in worse pricing for customers.
Robinhood Crypto General Counsel Lucas Moskowitz told CNBC its disclosures are “best-in-class” and that it delivers the lowest average cost.
“We disclose pricing information to customers during the lifecycle of a trade that clearly outlines the spread or the fees associated with the transaction, and the revenue Robinhood receives,” added Moskowitz.
Robinhood is also facing opposition to a new 25% cut of staking rewards for U.S. users, set to begin October 1. In Europe, the platform will take a smaller 15% cut.
Staking allows crypto holders to earn yield by locking up their tokens to help secure blockchain networks like ethereum, but platforms often take a percentage of those rewards as commission.
Robinhood’s 25% cut puts it in line with Coinbase, which charges between 25.25% and 35% depending on the token. The cut is notably higher than Gemini’s flat 15% fee.
It marks a shift for the company, which had previously steered clear of staking amid regulatory uncertainty.
Under President Joe Biden‘s administration, the Securities and Exchange Commission cracked down on U.S. platforms offering staking services, arguing they constituted unregistered securities.
With President Donald Trump in the White House, the agency has reversed course on several crypto enforcement actions, dropping cases against major players like Coinbase and Binance and signaling a more permissive stance.
Even as enforcement actions ease, Robinhood is under fresh scrutiny for its tokenized stock push, which is a growing part of its international strategy.
The company now offers blockchain-based assets in Europe that give users synthetic exposure to private firms like OpenAI and SpaceX through special purpose vehicles, or SPVs.
An SPV is a separate entity that acquires shares in a company. Users then buy tokens of the SPV and don’t have shareholder privileges or voting rights directly in the company.
OpenAI has publicly objected, warning the tokens do not represent real equity and were issued without its approval. In an interview with CNBC International, CEO Vlad Tenev acknowledged the tokens aren’t technically equity shares, but said that misses the broader point.
“What’s important is that retail customers have an opportunity to get exposure to this asset,” he said, pointing to the disruptive nature of AI and the historically limited access to pre-IPO companies.
“It is true that these are not technically equity,” Tenev added, noting that institutional investors often gain similar exposure through structured financial instruments.
The Bank of Lithuania — Robinhood’s lead regulator in the EU — told CNBC on Monday that it is “awaiting clarifications” following OpenAI’s statement.
“Only after receiving and evaluating this information will we be able to assess the legality and compliance of these specific instruments,” a spokesperson said, adding that information for investors must be “clear, fair, and non-misleading.”
Tenev responded that Robinhood is “happy to continue to answer questions from our regulators,” and said the company built its tokenized stock program to withstand scrutiny.
“Since this is a new thing, regulators are going to want to look at it,” he said. “And we expect to be scrutinized as a large, innovative player in this space.”
SEC Chair Paul Atkins recently called the model “an innovation” on CNBC’s Squawk Box, offering some validation as Robinhood leans further into its synthetic equity strategy — even as legal clarity remains in flux across jurisdictions.
Despite the regulatory noise, many investors remain focused on Robinhood’s upside, and particularly the political tailwinds.
The company is positioning itself as a key beneficiary of Trump’s newly signed megabill, which includes $1,000 government-seeded investment accounts for newborns. Robinhood said it’s already prototyping an app for the ‘Trump Accounts‘ initiative.
WATCH: Watch CNBC’s full interview with Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev
Korean auto giants Hyundai and Kia think lower-priced EVs will help minimize the blow from the new US auto tariffs. Hyundai is set to unveil a new entry-level electric car soon, which will be sold alongside the Kia EV2. Will it be the IONIQ 2?
Hyundai and Kia shift to lower-priced EVs
Hyundai and Kia already offer some of the most affordable and efficient electric vehicles on the market, with models like the IONIQ 5 and EV6.
In Europe, Korea, Japan, and other overseas markets, Hyundai sells the Inster EV (sold as the Casper Electric in Korea), an electric city car. The Inster EV starts at about $27,000 (€23,900), but Hyundai will soon offer another lower-priced EV, similar to the upcoming Kia EV2.
The Inster EV is seeing strong initial demand in Europe and Japan. According to a local report (via Newsis), demand for the Casper Electric is so high that buyers are waiting over a year for delivery.
Hyundai is doubling down with plans to introduce an even more affordable EV, rumored to be the IONIQ 2. Xavier Martinet, CEO of Hyundai Motor Europe, said during a recent interview that “The new electric vehicle will be unveiled in the next few months.”
The new EV is expected to be a compact SUV, which will likely resemble the upcoming Kia EV2. Kia will launch the EV2 in Europe and other global regions in 2026.
Hyundai is keeping most details under wraps, but the expected IONIQ 2 is likely to sit below the Kona Electric as a smaller city EV.
More affordable electric cars are on the way
Although nothing is confirmed, it’s expected to be priced at around €30,000 ($35,000), or slightly less than the Kia EV3.
The Kia EV3 starts at €35,990 in Europe and £33,005 in the UK, or about $42,000. Through the first half of the year, Kia’s compact electric SUV is the UK’s most popular EV.
Like the Hyundai IONIQ models and Kia’s other electric vehicles, the EV3 is based on the E-GMP platform. It’s available with two battery packs: 58.3 kWh or 81.48 kWh, providing a WLTP range of up to 430 km (270 miles) and 599 km (375 miles), respectively.
Hyundai is expected to reveal the new EV at the IAA Mobility show in Munich in September. Meanwhile, Kia is working on a smaller electric car to sit below the EV2 that could start at under €25,000 ($30,000).
According to the report, Hyundai and Kia are doubling down on lower-priced EVs to balance potential losses from the new US auto tariffs.
Despite opening its new EV manufacturing plant in Georgia to boost local production, Hyundai is still expected to expand sales in other regions. An industry insider explained, “Considering the risk of US tariffs, Hyundai’s move to target the European market with small electric vehicles is a natural strategy.”
Although Hyundai is expanding in other markets, it remains a leading EV brand in the US. The IONIQ 5 remains a top-selling EV with over 19,000 units sold through June.
After delivering the first IONIQ 9 models in May, Hyundai reported that over 1,000 models had been sold through the end of June, its three-row electric SUV.
While the $7,500 EV tax credit is still here, Hyundai is offering generous savings with leases for the 2025 IONIQ 5 starting as low as $179 per month. The three-row IONIQ 9 starts at just $419 per month. And Hyundai is even throwing in a free ChargePoint Home Flex Level 2 charger if you buy or lease either model.
Unfortunately, we likely won’t see the entry-level EV2 or IONIQ 2 in the US. However, Kia is set to launch its first electric sedan, the EV4, in early 2026.
Ready to take advantage of the savings while they are still here? You can use our links below to find deals on Hyundai and Kia EV models in your area.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
As EVBox shuts down its Everon business across Europe and North America, EV charging provider Blink Charging is stepping up to offer support to customers caught in the transition.
EVBox’s software arm Everon recently announced it’s winding down operations alongside EVBox’s AC charger business. That’s left a lot of charging station hosts and drivers wondering what comes next. Now, EVBox Everon is pointing its customers toward Blink as a recommended alternative.
Blink says it’s ready to help, whether that means keeping existing chargers up and running or replacing aging gear with new Blink chargers.
“EVBox has played a significant role in the growth of EV charging infrastructure across the UK and Mainland Europe, and we recognize the trust hosts have placed in its solutions,” said Alex Calnan, Blink Charging’s managing director of Europe. “With the recent announcement of Everon’s withdrawal from the EV charging market, it’s natural to have questions about what this means for operations. At Blink, we want to assure Everon customers that we are here to help them navigate this transition.”
Blink says it’s able to offer advice, replacements, and ongoing network management to make the changeover as smooth as possible.
Everon users who switch to Blink will get access to the Blink Network portal via the Blink Charging app. That opens up real-time insight into charger usage and lets hosts set pricing, manage users, and download performance reports.
“At Blink, our charging technology is future-ready,” added Calnan. “With advancements like vehicle-to-grid technology on the horizon, our chargers are built to support the future of electric vehicles and charging habits.”
The company says its chargers are in stock and ready to ship now for any Everon customers looking to make the jump.
In October 2024, France’s Engie announced it would liquidate the entire EVBox group, which it said posted total losses of €800 million since Engie took over in 2017. EVBox is closing its operations in the Netherlands, Germany, and the US.
The 30% federal solar tax credit is ending this year. If you’ve ever considered going solar, now’s the time to act. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike