Commodity markets are in a ‘super squeeze’ — and higher prices could be here to stay
SUIXI, CHINA – DECEMBER 30: An employee works on the production line of aluminum foil at a workshop of Anhui Limu New Material Technology Co., Ltd on December 30, 2023 in Suixi County, Huaibei City, Anhui Province of China. (Photo by Li Xin/VCG via Getty Images)
Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images
Global commodity markets are in a “super squeeze” amid supply disruptions and lack of investment — and it’s only going to get worse as geopolitical and climate risks exacerbate the situation, HSBC said.
“For some time now we have described global commodity markets as being in a ‘super-squeeze,'” its chief economist Paul Bloxham told CNBC.
A commodity “super squeeze” is denoted by higher prices driven by supply constraints more than a robust growth in demand, he explained.
“If it’s a supply constraint that’s driving high commodity prices, it’s a very different story for global growth,” said via Zoom. Higher prices as a result of a super squeeze are “not as positive.”
“We see the deeper ‘super-squeeze’ factors on the supply-side as still set to play a key role in keeping commodity prices elevated,” he said, outlining factors like political uncertainties, climate change and the lack of investments into the green energy transition.
The super squeeze could be deeper, or more prolonged if geopolitical, climate change or energy transition related supply disruptions are larger than expected.
Paul Bloxham
HSBC chief economist
Geopolitical risks include the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza and the Ukraine war, which have hampered global trade, as seen in shipping disruptions from the recent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
Another reason is climate change, which disrupts supply chains as well as commodities supply, especially in the agricultural space.
“The super squeeze could be deeper, or more prolonged if geopolitical, climate change or energy transition related supply disruptions are larger than expected,” he added.
Lack of investments
The world’s pursuit of a net-zero carbon future is fueling demand for energy transition metals such as copper and nickel, Bloxham pointed out.
However, there are insufficient investments allocated to procuring these critical minerals, leading to a sharper supply squeeze on energy transition metals — in particular copper, aluminum and nickel, he said.
As energy transition ramps up, markets could be looking at a shortage of a slew of metals like graphite, cobalt, copper, nickel and lithium in the next decade, the Energy Transitions Commission said in a report in July.
At the recent COP28 climate change conference, more than 60 countries backed a plan to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, in what is largely deemed as a step forward for energy transition and a further boost in demand for metals required for that transition.
“Large-scale mining projects can take 15-20 years, and the last decade has seen a lack of investment in exploration and production for key energy transition materials,” the report said.
Annual capital investments in these metals averaged $45 billion in the last two decades, and must rise to around $70 billion each year through to 2030 to ensure an ample stream of supply, according to the ETC report.
Commodities are notoriously volatile asset classes, with a long history that is prone to a short squeeze and the current landscape points to more of the same.
Brian Luke
S&P Dow Jones Indices
Without more investment in new capacities, supply will be constrained, HSBC’s Bloxham said, adding that “for any given amount of demand,” it should be expected that commodity prices will stay more elevated than in the past.
“That seems to be playing out across many of the commodities at the moment.”
Technology could also be a gamechanger if a development came along and made it much easier to extract the metals used in the battery space, Bloxham added.
Iron ore site in Australia.
Ian Waldie | Bloomberg via Getty Images
He did not say how long it will take global commodity markets to move out of the squeeze, but one way out of it — which would also push commodity prices lower — is a “bigger and deeper [economic] downturn globally,” he said.
“Commodities are notoriously volatile asset classes, with a long history that is prone to a short squeeze and the current landscape points to more of the same,” said Brian Luke, senior director and head of commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. He highlighted that extreme weather events and geopolitics have also impacted the agricultural and energy commodity baskets.
Metals most impacted
Analysts say metals will likely see the most upside.
Bloxham noted that aside from clean energy metals, iron ore was also on his list due to falling inventory and a lack of investments into expanding capacity.
Iron ore has seen a price jump of over 24% in the last year, according to data from FactSet. The benchmark 62%-grade iron ore last traded at $135.48 per ton.
“The reason why [iron ore] has a sudden squeeze-up is because inventory has been very low,” said Bank of America Securities’ head of Asia -Pacific basic materials, Matty Zhao.
She noted that in spite of China’s property crisis, steel production has continued, fueling demand for iron ore and coking coal, which are integral to steelmaking.
China, which makes around 55% of the world’s steel, produced 874.7 million tons of steel in the first 10 months of 2023 — up 1.4% across the same period in 2022.
What squeeze?
While risks remain, one analyst is of the view that commodity markets are still “adequately supplied” for the most part.
“The commodity markets are currently focused on slumping demand due to the sluggish global economy. As such, there’s not too much concern about supplies,” said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at financial services firm StoneX.
Oil, for one, saw an increase in global oil inventories in 2023.
Some are still hoping that a rebound in Chinese demand will help.
“A resurgence from Asia will go a long way in determining if commodities will have a breakout year,” said S&P’s Luke, adding that 2023 saw a year of unfulfilled demand from China which weighed heavily on commodity markets.
The 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 got a major glow up with extra driving range, a sleek interior and exterior facelift, and even Tesla Supercharger access with an added NACS port. With leases starting at just $179 per month, the Hyundai IONIQ 5 might be your best bet to get into an EV right now.
How much does the 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 cost to lease?
Hyundai upgraded its best-selling electric SUV in every way possible for the 2025 model year. The 2025 IONIQ 5 can drive up to 318 miles on a single charge, recharge from 10% to 80% in under 20 minutes, and is available starting at just $42,500.
After cutting lease prices last month, the 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 was available to lease for as low as $179 per month.
The offer was set to end on July 7, but Hyundai extended it through its new “Hyundai Getaway Sales Event.” The 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 SE Standard Range model is still available for lease, starting at just $179 per month.
That’s for the base version, which has a range of up to 245 miles. The offer is for a 24-month lease with $3,999 due at signing.
The long-range SE RWD variant, with a driving range of up to 318 miles, can be leased for as little as $199 per month. Upgrading to the AWD model will cost $249 per month. You can even snag the off-road XRT variant for $299 a month right now.
Hyundai upgraded the IONIQ 5 with a sleek facelift, adding to its already bold design. Inside, the 2025 IONIQ 5 features a redesigned center console, steering wheel, and HVAC control system based on driver feedback.
It also features a more powerful, next-gen infotainment system. The setup includes dual 12.3″ driver display and infotainment screens with standard wireless Apple CarPlay and Android Auto, voice-recognition, and more.
If you’re looking for something a little bigger, Hyundai’s three-row electric SUV, the IONIQ 9 (Check out our review), is listed for lease starting at just $419 per month.
| 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 Trim | EV Powertrain | Driving Range (miles) | Starting Price* | Monthly lease price July 2025 |
| IONIQ 5 SE RWD Standard Range | 168-horsepower rear motor | 245 | $42,500 | $179 |
| IONIQ 5 SE RWD | 225-horsepower rear motor | 318 | $46,550 | $199 |
| IONIQ 5 SEL RWD | 225-horsepower rear motor | 318 | $49,500 | $209 |
| IONIQ 5 Limited RWD | 225-horsepower rear motor | 318 | $54,200 | $309 |
| IONIQ 5 SE Dual Motor AWD | 320-horsepower dual motor | 290 | $50,050 | $249 |
| IONIQ 5 SEL Dual Motor AWD | 320-horsepower dual motor | 290 | $53,000 | $259 |
| IONIQ 5 XRT Dual Motor AWD | 320 horsepower dual motor | 259 | $55,400 | $359 |
| IONIQ 5 Limited Dual Motor AWD | 320-horsepower dual motor | 269 | $58,100 | $299 |
To sweeten the deal, Hyundai is throwing in a free ChargePoint Level 2 home charger with the purchase or lease of a new 2025 IONIQ 5 or 2026 IONIQ 9.
Both the 2025 IONIQ 5 and 2026 IONIQ 9 are built at Hyundai’s new EV plant in Georgia. The current lease offers include the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, which is set to expire at the end of September. Hyundai’s new deals are available through September 2, 2025.
Ready to test one out for yourself? We can help you get started. You can use our links below to find deals on the Hyundai IONIQ 5 and IONIQ 9 near you.
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Environment
Tesla Semi efficiency improves in real-world trucking test covering 4,494 miles over 3 weeks
The Tesla Semi, Tesla’s electric Class 8 semi-truck, saw its efficiency improve in a new real-world trucking test covering 4,494 miles over three weeks.
The Tesla Semi underwent significant changes over the years of delays.
Tesla officially unveiled the “production version” in 2022, but the vehicle never entered volume production. It is expected to finally happen at the end of the year at a new factory in Nevada.
When unveiling the “production version”, which turned out not to be the final production version, Elon Musk said that the Tesla Semi has an efficiency of 1.7 kWh per mile.
In September 2024, Tesla reported improvements in its own fleet after covering 250,000 miles. It claimed to be achieving 1.6 kWh per mile.
Last year, two Tesla Semi customers got closer to what Musk claimed in 2022. DHL got 1.72 kWh per mile in their own test, and Saia got 1.73 kWh per mile.
Now, Tesla Semi appears to have improved quite a bit in a new real-world test by logistics company ArcBest.
The company claims to have put Tesla Semi through regular operations, varying from lane dispatch to regional runs over three weeks:
Over a three-week period, ABF operated a Tesla Semi across typical dispatch lanes, including over-the-road routes between service centers in Reno, Nevada and Sacramento, California. The pilot also included regional runs in the Bay Area and rail shuttle operations.
ArcBest claims that Tesla Semi averaged 1.55 kWh per mile during the three weeks:
The electric Semi logged 4,494 miles, averaging 321 miles per day with an overall energy efficiency of 1.55 kWh per mile.
Efficiency in the trucking business varies considerably based on several factors, including the load, but it is nonetheless an impressive performance.
Dennis Anderson, ArcBest chief innovation officer, commented on the test program:
“Freight transportation is a vital part of the global economy, and we know it also plays a significant role in overall greenhouse gas emissions. While the path to decarbonization presents complex challenges — such as infrastructure needs and alternative fuel development — it also opens the door to innovation. Vehicles like the Tesla Semi highlight the progress being made and expand the boundaries of what’s possible as we work toward a more sustainable future for freight.”
Tesla says that the truck should enter volume production toward the end of the year and customer deliveries are expected to start next year.
While the efficiency of the electric truck has improved, we previously reported that its price has increased significantly.
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Range Rover now has its own logo for the first time. The luxury automaker is unveiling a sleek new look as it gears up to launch its first electric SUV later this year.
Range Rover introduces its first logo
Since it launched its first vehicle in 1970, the Range Rover badge has become an iconic status symbol. You can’t miss the classic Range Rover look.
With its first EV due out later this year, the luxury automaker is preparing for a new era. JLR revealed the new Range Rover logo, a first for the luxury automaker, during an investor presentation.
The new logo is a stark contrast to the “Range Rover” badge we are accustomed to seeing, featuring a minimalist design similar to the Rolls-Royce emblem.
JLR told Autocar that the new logo won’t replace the signature Range Rover badge at the front or rear. Instead, it will be used to complement it.
“The Range Rover Motif has been developed as a smaller symbol for where our familiar Range Rover device mark does not fit, such as on a label or as part of a repeating pattern, and within event spaces where an emblem is more appropriate,” the company said.
With Range Rover’s first electric SUV set to hit showrooms later this year, will we see it featured on the new EV? JLR confirmed in May that the Range Rover Electric now has over 61,000 clients on the waitlist.
The company claims the new EV is undergoing “the most intensive testing any Range Rover vehicle has ever endured” ahead of its big debut later this year.
According to Thomas Müller, Range Rover’s executive director of product engineering, the electric SUV is already outperforming some of its top gas-powered models.
JLR has already begun testing new EV production lines at its Solihull, UK, plant in preparation for the new Range Rover model. Next year, the luxury brand is expected to introduce the smaller Sport and Velar EV models.
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