Commodity markets are in a ‘super squeeze’ — and higher prices could be here to stay
SUIXI, CHINA – DECEMBER 30: An employee works on the production line of aluminum foil at a workshop of Anhui Limu New Material Technology Co., Ltd on December 30, 2023 in Suixi County, Huaibei City, Anhui Province of China. (Photo by Li Xin/VCG via Getty Images)
Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images
Global commodity markets are in a “super squeeze” amid supply disruptions and lack of investment — and it’s only going to get worse as geopolitical and climate risks exacerbate the situation, HSBC said.
“For some time now we have described global commodity markets as being in a ‘super-squeeze,'” its chief economist Paul Bloxham told CNBC.
A commodity “super squeeze” is denoted by higher prices driven by supply constraints more than a robust growth in demand, he explained.
“If it’s a supply constraint that’s driving high commodity prices, it’s a very different story for global growth,” said via Zoom. Higher prices as a result of a super squeeze are “not as positive.”
“We see the deeper ‘super-squeeze’ factors on the supply-side as still set to play a key role in keeping commodity prices elevated,” he said, outlining factors like political uncertainties, climate change and the lack of investments into the green energy transition.
The super squeeze could be deeper, or more prolonged if geopolitical, climate change or energy transition related supply disruptions are larger than expected.
Paul Bloxham
HSBC chief economist
Geopolitical risks include the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza and the Ukraine war, which have hampered global trade, as seen in shipping disruptions from the recent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
Another reason is climate change, which disrupts supply chains as well as commodities supply, especially in the agricultural space.
“The super squeeze could be deeper, or more prolonged if geopolitical, climate change or energy transition related supply disruptions are larger than expected,” he added.
Lack of investments
The world’s pursuit of a net-zero carbon future is fueling demand for energy transition metals such as copper and nickel, Bloxham pointed out.
However, there are insufficient investments allocated to procuring these critical minerals, leading to a sharper supply squeeze on energy transition metals — in particular copper, aluminum and nickel, he said.
As energy transition ramps up, markets could be looking at a shortage of a slew of metals like graphite, cobalt, copper, nickel and lithium in the next decade, the Energy Transitions Commission said in a report in July.
At the recent COP28 climate change conference, more than 60 countries backed a plan to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, in what is largely deemed as a step forward for energy transition and a further boost in demand for metals required for that transition.
“Large-scale mining projects can take 15-20 years, and the last decade has seen a lack of investment in exploration and production for key energy transition materials,” the report said.
Annual capital investments in these metals averaged $45 billion in the last two decades, and must rise to around $70 billion each year through to 2030 to ensure an ample stream of supply, according to the ETC report.
Commodities are notoriously volatile asset classes, with a long history that is prone to a short squeeze and the current landscape points to more of the same.
Brian Luke
S&P Dow Jones Indices
Without more investment in new capacities, supply will be constrained, HSBC’s Bloxham said, adding that “for any given amount of demand,” it should be expected that commodity prices will stay more elevated than in the past.
“That seems to be playing out across many of the commodities at the moment.”
Technology could also be a gamechanger if a development came along and made it much easier to extract the metals used in the battery space, Bloxham added.
Iron ore site in Australia.
Ian Waldie | Bloomberg via Getty Images
He did not say how long it will take global commodity markets to move out of the squeeze, but one way out of it — which would also push commodity prices lower — is a “bigger and deeper [economic] downturn globally,” he said.
“Commodities are notoriously volatile asset classes, with a long history that is prone to a short squeeze and the current landscape points to more of the same,” said Brian Luke, senior director and head of commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. He highlighted that extreme weather events and geopolitics have also impacted the agricultural and energy commodity baskets.
Metals most impacted
Analysts say metals will likely see the most upside.
Bloxham noted that aside from clean energy metals, iron ore was also on his list due to falling inventory and a lack of investments into expanding capacity.
Iron ore has seen a price jump of over 24% in the last year, according to data from FactSet. The benchmark 62%-grade iron ore last traded at $135.48 per ton.
“The reason why [iron ore] has a sudden squeeze-up is because inventory has been very low,” said Bank of America Securities’ head of Asia -Pacific basic materials, Matty Zhao.
She noted that in spite of China’s property crisis, steel production has continued, fueling demand for iron ore and coking coal, which are integral to steelmaking.
China, which makes around 55% of the world’s steel, produced 874.7 million tons of steel in the first 10 months of 2023 — up 1.4% across the same period in 2022.
What squeeze?
While risks remain, one analyst is of the view that commodity markets are still “adequately supplied” for the most part.
“The commodity markets are currently focused on slumping demand due to the sluggish global economy. As such, there’s not too much concern about supplies,” said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at financial services firm StoneX.
Oil, for one, saw an increase in global oil inventories in 2023.
Some are still hoping that a rebound in Chinese demand will help.
“A resurgence from Asia will go a long way in determining if commodities will have a breakout year,” said S&P’s Luke, adding that 2023 saw a year of unfulfilled demand from China which weighed heavily on commodity markets.
Australian logistics company Linfox is making big moves to electrify its heavy-duty semi fleet with the addition of thirty new Volvo FH and FM Electric semi trucks as the Swedish brand works to begin production at its Brisbane facility.
Volvo Trucks is expecting to begin full scale production of its FH and FM Electric semi trucks at the Brisbane factory in early 2026, just in time to fill the Linfox order – which happens to be the company’s largest in Australia. So far.
“We are very proud to continue our close partnership with Linfox. The order for 30 Volvo electric trucks is proof of their trust in our company and in zero-emissions transport as a viable solution here and now,” said Roger Alm, President Volvo Trucks. “Our commitment to start building electric trucks in Australia demonstrates our confidence in this technology, and means we can offer an industry-leading range of purpose-built electric trucks all around the world.”
With the production kickoff of electric trucks in Australia, it means Volvo Trucks is building its big HDEVs and prime movers in five countries on three continents. Which, as the company’s electric fleet approaches the 100 millionth mile logged mark, probably means they’re pulling well ahead of some of the other guys.
“Linfox is excited to partner with Volvo in driving the future and leading sustainable logistics in Australia,” explains Peter Fox AM (Member of the Order of Australia), Executive Chairman of Linfox. “Further electrifying our fleet sets the standard for us and our customers and the entire industry.”
Linfox’ latest order includes 29 Volvo FH Electric and one FM Electric semi. The company currently has four electric Volvo trucks in its fleet of 195 semis, with plans to continue to electrify as ICE-powered assets reach retirement.
Electrek’s Take
Now counting miles in operation in the tens of millions and rolling out its third generation of electric semi trucks, Volvo (and, by extension, Mack and Renault) continue to build a huge lead in the commercial trucking space. The competition, meanwhile, seems content to post pictures of its first factory while trucks that have been on order for years still haven’t reached customers.
I can’t see how they (Tesla) catch up from here.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Volvo Trucks.
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Oakland International Airport (OAK) in Alameda, California is helping stressed-out air passengers breathe a little bit easier with the introduction of five new battery-electric K9MD shuttle buses to its ground equipment fleet.
Global EV leaders BYD aren’t coming to America – the Chinese brand is already here. The company has been building EVs in its $250 million, 106,000 square foot production facility in Lancaster, California since 2014, delivering hundreds of battery-electric buses to fleets across the world. With this order of five new K9MD buses, OAK becomes the latest airport to turn to BYD Ride to help electrify its ground operations.
“We applaud Oakland Airport and their commitment to electrifying its fleet,” said Jason Yan, Vice President of Sales, West Region and National Account at Ride. “[BYD] Ride is thrilled to partner with OAK to offer sustainable transportation solutions that benefit both the environment and the community.”
The K9MD buses seat up to 42 passengers and have a 208 mile operating range from a 352 kWh lithium iron phosphate battery. That battery is backed by a 12-year warranty to help keep fiscally conservative fleet buyers at ease, while the smooth, quiet, and electric drive keeps the fleet’s operators happy, too.
Oakland International Airport is operated by the Port of Oakland, and is scheduled to electrify its entire ground operations fleet by 2030.
Electrek’s Take
The people live and work near airports are exposed to more emissions than most – and that includes kids, the elderly … even their pets. Electrifying the assets that operate in those spaces pays huge and immediate dividends in terms of the public health of some of the most vulnerable populations.
It’s as good a place as any to start. Let’s go.
SOURCE | IMAGES: BYD.
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Environment
Trump meme coin dinner likely to include mostly non-Americans based on top $TRUMP holders
Jonathan Raa | Nurphoto | Getty Images
With President Donald Trump’s private dinner for top meme coin holders less than a week away, the leaderboard is awash with crypto wallets that are effectively anonymous.
On May 22, the top 220 $TRUMP holders are invited to a dinner with the president at his Virginia golf club outside of Washington, D.C. The event was announced last month, and the tally closed Monday night.
The nature of the pseudonymous wallets raises questions about the true identities and motivations of the token’s largest holders, who have bought a seat at the table with a U.S. president.
Documents from blockchain analytics firm Inca Digital that were reviewed by CNBC show where the top 275 $TRUMP token holders send and receive the token. Many are heavily tied to international exchanges like Binance that don’t service U.S. customers, an indication that they’re likely not U.S. citizens.
An analysis by Bloomberg revealed that 19 of the top 25 wallets are almost certainly owned by individuals operating outside the U.S.
Justin Sun, who openly shared that he bought $75 million worth of the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial token — a digital coin where 75% of proceeds go to Trump-related entities — is believed to be at the top of the $TRUMP meme token leaderboard.
Sun, who was born in China, is the crypto entrepreneur behind the Tron blockchain and is in talks with the SEC to resolve civil fraud charges.
A wallet called Sun currently holds more than $18 million worth of $TRUMP, with $4.5 million bought after the dinner contest announcement, according to Bloomberg.
Multiple reports point to the wallet being tied to the Tron founder. A representative for Sun didn’t respond to CNBC’s request for comment or confirm whether Sun is the wallet owner.
MemeCore, a Singapore-based crypto network that was vocal in its quest to secure a spot at the Trump dinner, landed in second place with an investment of $18 million. An Australian crypto entrepreneur also reportedly made the cut.
The leaderboard points to the token’s extreme volatility.
Inca Digital told CNBC that while 560,376 wallets have made a combined $5.2 billion in realized gains on the $TRUMP token, an even larger number — 592,962 wallets — have collectively lost $3.9 billion.
The figures underscore the massive wealth transfer within Trump’s crypto ecosystem, where early buyers have seen windfalls while the majority have suffered losses.
Chainalysis and Elliptic, two leading blockchain analytics firms, initially tracked $TRUMP token movements and trading fees. But days after CNBC published a story on the number of crypto wallets that had lost money on the meme coin, the firms said they were too busy with existing clients to continue blockchain analysis of the president’s self-branded meme token.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., the ranking member of the Senate Subcommittee on Investigations, warned that the Trump family’s growing crypto holdings may serve as a backdoor for foreign and corporate interests seeking access to the president.
Freight Technologies, a Houston-based logistics firm that trades on the Nasdaq and has a market cap of just over $2.3 million, bought $2 million worth of the $TRUMP tokens to influence U.S.-Mexico trade policy, according to a release. CEO Javier Selgas described the move as a strategic push to “champion fair and free trade” across the U.S.-Mexico border.
Freight Technologies finished in 250th place, missing the cut for the dinner.
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