Adam Boulton: Are we in for one of the ‘dirtiest’ election campaigns ever?

Published

4 months ago

January 28, 2024

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There was general agreement at the Institute for Government’s Annual conference last week that it would be a good thing for Britain if this year’s election campaign is not “dirty”.

This highfalutin notion was shot down in seconds with equally universal assumption by the assembled politicians and policy wonks that “that is not going to happen”.

A clean campaign would concentrate on policies and competence.

A dirty campaign is built around slurs, distortions and untruths, with those competing for votes slinging mud at each other.

A lot of factors, headed by booming social media, are coming together to suggest that this year we may see one of the dirtiest election campaigns ever.

The IFG delegates had to wait less than a day for their forebodings to come true. There might have been a lot to talk about at Prime Minister’s Questions.

The Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) bill struggling through parliament. The world order threatened by ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, Israel and the Red Sea.

Record NHS waiting lists are the public’s number one concern. The chancellor is contemplating two rounds of tax cuts.

But no, the leader of the opposition chose to exchange personal insults, much of it based on dubious content circulating on smartphones.

Fair’s fair, Sir Keir Starmer started it this time, but Rishi Sunak had a well-stocked pile to fling back.

Starmer opened up referring to a couple of brief unofficial clips posted online. One showing the prime minister “collapsing in laughter when he was asked by a member of the public about the NHS waiting lists”.

The other “accidentally record[ing] a candid video for Nigel Farage“.

Sunak, who seldom passes up a chance to brand Starmer as a lefty London lawyer, shot back that he is “the man who takes the knee, who wanted to abolish the monarchy, and who still does not know what a woman is”.

Previously Starmer “chose to represent a now-proscribed terrorist group” Hizb ut-Tahrir, and “served” Jeremy Corbyn.

Both men knew that the insults they were sticking on each other were essentially unjustified distortions of the other, but that was what they chose to put on the national agenda at the most scrutinized moment of the political week.

Starmer has explicitly changed his party and his previous positions.

Under scrutiny, he has clarified and explained each of the specific acts detailed. It is a core principle of British justice that advocates are not surrogates for their clients.

Sunak was not laughing at the people he was talking to and spoke to them properly after the end of the clip.

The alleged greeting to Farage was repurposing an online meme which allows any name, in this case “Nigel”, to be put into the prime minister’s mouth.

Neither Sunak nor Starmer are classic alpha males.

Sunak comes across as a whiny or petulant geek, Starmer seems hesitant, overcautious and inclined to blame others.

Perhaps this is why they feel the need to overcompensate by acting rough and tough. Sir Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat leader, also has his moments of fabricated machismo.

The leaders set the tone and their petulance has been picked up in the campaigning efforts of their underlings and supporters.

Prime minister Boris Johnson took up an online distortion that Starmer had failed, when he was director of public prosecutions, to take action against Jimmy Savile.

This prompted the senior Downing Street aide Munira Mirza to resign protesting that this was “not the normal cut and thrust of politics”.

It soon would be. Labour cited Johnson’s attack as justification for their later personalised digital poster attacks on Rishi Sunak including the smear that he “doesn’t think adults convicted of sexually abusing children should go to prison”.

Since then Keir Starmer has gone out of his way not to back down or apologise; following the code of the playground he promises to punch back hard against any attacks.

At the start of election year he rejected an invitation from Beth Rigby to take up Michelle Obama’s famous recommendation: “When they go low, we go high”.

Instead, he told Sky News’ political editor: “If they want to go with fire, we will meet their fire with fire”.

Donald Trump crafts insults – Lyin’ Ted, Sleepy Joe, Ron DeSanctimonious – with cruel genius and gets away with fabulations.

There is only one Trump; honest political strivers should not try to copy him.

Opinion polls after personalised attacks usually show that support for both sides goes down, though more for the target than the attacker.

This should give all the party leaders something to think about, especially since public respect for politicians is at a record low and a low or differential turnout could be a major factor.

Starmer needs to mobilise enthusiasm for his leadership, not dent it. Sunak’s standing is already low and doesn’t want to drop further.

This government raised spending limits for the election campaign to £35m. Much of it will go on direct messaging to voters – which is harder to police than election broadcasts and billboards.

During the 2019 campaign, the Conservatives spent over a million on Facebook, much of it on messages disparaging Jeremy Corbyn.

Both Labour and Conservatives are already spending over a million a month on Facebook advertising.

Then there is what partisan supporters choose to put up on social media independently.

Labour has already advised its supporters to use humour.

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Even without explicitly taking sides humourists such as Coldwar Steve and Trumpton, liked and retweeted, can make some political weather, often by lowering the tone.

Political propagandising is much more equal opportunity than it used to be. Anyone can post.

On the other hand, the newspapers and other mainstream media no longer have a near monopoly.

In 1997 when The Sun ran its famous “Nightmare on Kinnock Street” and “Will the Last Person to Leave Britain Please Turn Off the Lights” attacks on Labour, the paper’s circulation was 3.9 million.

The last official figures released were 1.2 million in 2020.

Poster launches used to be major events in political campaigning, but who would bother with them today?

There are some worthwhile lessons to be learned from the classics.

The Saatchi brothers are celebrated for their attacking of billboards: Labour isn’t working, Labour’s tax bombshell and Labour’s Policy on Arms (showing a combat soldier surrendering hands up).

Each of these were masterpieces of wit and effort compared to the Conservatives’ adoption of the BBC newsreader caught giving the finger for “Labour when you ask for their plans to tackle immigration”.

The Saatchis’ best work riffed with precision on policy rather than personal insults.

When the Conservatives tried that with their “New Labour, New Danger” demon eyes poster it misfired; it was difficult to convincingly portray Blair as a devil when other Conservative sources were attacking him as an inexperienced Bambi.

Labour boobed depicting Cameron as a cute bicycling chameleon.

The most effective attacks at PMQs cut directly to the political issues facing the voters, rather than scuffling around in their past record for something compromising.

Mrs Thatcher struck directly and seemingly spontaneously at Michael Foot: “Afraid of an election is he? Afraid? Frightened? Frit?”.

“Weak, weak, weak,” Tony Blair gutted John Major. “You were the future once.”

Sunak, Starmer and their teams of advisors have yet to produce anything as authentic.

Something which would crystallise the political moment.

Instead, they and we can look forward to a year in the dirt as they scrabble around trying to find it.

UK

Next few years will be ‘most dangerous’ UK has ever known, Rishi Sunak to say in ‘major’ speech

Published

2 hours ago

May 13, 2024

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Next few years will be 'most dangerous' UK has ever known, Rishi Sunak to say in 'major' speech

Rishi Sunak will give a speech on Monday setting out “bold ideas to change society” – as he seeks to regain momentum following the defection of one of his MPs to Labour and a hammering at the local elections.

In what is being billed by Downing Street as a “major speech” in central London, the prime minister will outline “the stark choice facing the UK public” ahead of the general election later this year.

Mr Sunak has suggested he will go to the polls in the autumn, with Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron telling Sky News on Sunday that voters need time “to see our plan is working”.

In a bid to revive his faltering premiership, the Tory leader will say: “I have bold ideas that can change our society for the better, and restore people’s confidence and pride in our country.

“I feel a profound sense of urgency. Because more will change in the next five years than in the last 30.

“I’m convinced that the next few years will be some of the most dangerous yet most transformational our country has ever known.”

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It is not clear what specific ideas the prime minister will set out.

A trail of the speech released by Downing Street says he will discuss safeguarding the nation’s security against threats like war and rising global immigration.

Mr Sunak will also set out his intention to capitalise safely on the opportunities presented by artificial intelligence.

He will go on to say: “Our country stands at a crossroads.

“Over the next few years, from our democracy to our economy to our society – to the hardest questions of war and peace – almost every aspect of our lives is going to change.

“How we act in the face of these changes – not only to keep people safe and secure but to realise the opportunities too – will determine whether or not Britain will succeed in the years to come.

“And this is the choice facing the country.”

The speech comes after a difficult week for Mr Sunak, who faced his second defection to Labour after Dover MP Natalie Elphicke crossed the floor to join the opposition benches shortly before PMQs on Wednesday.

Ms Elphicke, considered to be on the right of the Tory party, blamed the “broken promises of Rishi Sunak’s tired and chaotic government”, and said key deciding factors for switching have been “housing and the safety and security of our borders”.

The shock move made her the second Tory MP to join the Labour Party in 11 days after former minister Dan Poulter defected to the opposition, blaming NHS “chaos”.

Mr Sunak has also come under pressure after the Conservatives suffered a mauling at the local elections, losing nearly 500 council seats, the Backpool South by-election and the West Midlands mayoralty in a bruising set of results.

In the wake of the defeats, Mr Sunak was facing calls to tack both further right and further to the centre.

Time is running out to make up ground against Labour ahead of the election, which has to be held by 25 January at the latest.

UK

Rishi Sunak to argue UK is safer under Conservatives amid worsening global outlook

Published

2 hours ago

May 13, 2024

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Rishi Sunak to argue UK is safer under Conservatives amid worsening global outlook

Rishi Sunak will argue that Britain is safer under the Conservatives against the backdrop of two escalating conflicts likely to dominate the week.

In the last few days, the prime minister has broken with US President Joe Biden by insisting the UK should continue to supply arms to Israel.

It comes as Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu appears poised to mount another massive military operation in the southern Gaza town of Rafah against warnings from the US and UK.

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Meanwhile, there are fears in Whitehall that Russia could mount an operation on Kharkiv by the end of the week to retake Ukraine‘s second-largest city.

Both operations could trigger wider repercussions.

Amid this worsening global outlook, the Conservatives want to highlight what they say is the gap between Tory and Labour pledges on military spending.

Politics latest: Cameron warns Israel against Rafah invasion

Sunak announced last month that a future Tory government would ensure 2.5% of GDP will be spent on the military by 2030, while Labour says it will do it when the economic conditions allow.

After the initial announcement, Sunak wants to ensure he gets full public credit for the big spending commitment while pushing Labour on its failure to match the promise.

Labour says that the Tory spending plan does not add up.

On Monday, Sunak will use a set-piece speech to mount the argument that there is a need for security at home and abroad in an ever-increasingly dangerous world and describe the country as being at a crossroads at the next general election.

In a further major political dividing line, Labour has broken with the government and called this weekend for a suspension of arms to Israel, placing it alongside the United States.

However the Tory government is holding firm, arguing that now is not the time and that Britain only supplies a small amount of the munitions used by Israel.

Some people inside government suggest that the US government position is driven by President Biden’s need to take a tougher position to shore up votes in the upcoming election race.

Sunak’s Monday speech is one part of a set of security-themed announcements by the government, following Lord Cameron’s media blitz at the weekend.

On Monday, deputy foreign secretary Andrew Mitchell will address a Tory-leaning think tank, while on Tuesday Defence Secretary Grant Shapps will make a speech, with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt speaking on Friday.

Also, Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden will lead a trade delegation this week to Saudi Arabia.

Although boosting trade will be the focus, Saudi Arabia, like Qatar, is one of the backchannels used by the UK to deliver messages to Hamas.

UK

Police Scotland’s chief constable: SNP finance probe heading to prosecutors ‘within weeks’

Published

2 hours ago

May 13, 2024

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Police Scotland's chief constable: SNP finance probe heading to prosecutors 'within weeks'

The police investigation involving Nicola Sturgeon’s husband is “moving on” with prosecutors to receive a file within weeks, Scotland’s most senior officer has told Sky News.

The former first minister and SNP leader’s spouse, Peter Murrell, has been charged in connection with embezzlement of party funds.

In her first interviews since taking on the UK’s second biggest police force, Chief Constable Jo Farrell insisted her officers are “objective” but refused to be drawn on whether the long-running probe will end imminently.

The investigation, dubbed Operation Branchform, was launched in July 2021 after officers received complaints about how SNP donations were used.

There were questions about more than £660,000 raised for a second Scottish independence referendum campaign.

Police Scotland has said Nicola Sturgeon remains under investigation after she was arrested and released without charge in 2023.

The SNP’s former treasurer, Colin Beattie, was also detained for almost 12 hours for questioning in spring last year.

The 72-year-old has told Sky News he had heard “nothing at all” from police recently.

Murrell, 59, was chief executive of the SNP for two decades.

He quit the role weeks before his arrest and resigned his SNP membership in the wake of his police charge.

The probe has involved detectives seizing a £100,000 motorhome from outside the home of one of Murrell’s elderly relatives.

Officers concluded in April there is sufficient evidence to charge Murrell in connection with embezzlement of party funds.

The next stage is for Scotland’s prosecution service, the Crown Office, to receive a report on the case from police and decide whether to proceed to court.

A Crown Office spokesman said: “All (of) Scotland’s prosecutors act independently of political interference.

“As is routine, to protect the integrity of ongoing investigations, we do not comment in detail on their conduct.”

Chief Con Farrell was questioned by Sky News about why the investigation was taking so long to conclude.

She said: “It’s a live investigation, complex investigation and the matter has been progressed, and we expect the report to go to the Crown Office in a matter of weeks.”

Asked about this probe continuing in a general election year, she said: “We’ve investigated allegations. That’s moving on.

“We have very skilled, professional, objective individuals working on that case.”

The senior officer refused to say when the SNP probe would be fully concluded or whether other individuals would face further questions.

“I’m not going to make a commentary on the length of it. One person’s been charged, the report will go to the Crown Office and it’s a live investigation,” she said.

Ms Sturgeon unexpectedly announced her resignation as SNP leader and first minister of Scotland months before police arrested her and her husband.

She has always insisted the probe never played any part in her sudden departure from office.