Adam Boulton: Are we in for one of the ‘dirtiest’ election campaigns ever?

Published

3 months ago

January 28, 2024

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There was general agreement at the Institute for Government’s Annual conference last week that it would be a good thing for Britain if this year’s election campaign is not “dirty”.

This highfalutin notion was shot down in seconds with equally universal assumption by the assembled politicians and policy wonks that “that is not going to happen”.

A clean campaign would concentrate on policies and competence.

A dirty campaign is built around slurs, distortions and untruths, with those competing for votes slinging mud at each other.

A lot of factors, headed by booming social media, are coming together to suggest that this year we may see one of the dirtiest election campaigns ever.

The IFG delegates had to wait less than a day for their forebodings to come true. There might have been a lot to talk about at Prime Minister’s Questions.

The Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) bill struggling through parliament. The world order threatened by ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, Israel and the Red Sea.

Record NHS waiting lists are the public’s number one concern. The chancellor is contemplating two rounds of tax cuts.

But no, the leader of the opposition chose to exchange personal insults, much of it based on dubious content circulating on smartphones.

Fair’s fair, Sir Keir Starmer started it this time, but Rishi Sunak had a well-stocked pile to fling back.

Starmer opened up referring to a couple of brief unofficial clips posted online. One showing the prime minister “collapsing in laughter when he was asked by a member of the public about the NHS waiting lists”.

The other “accidentally record[ing] a candid video for Nigel Farage“.

Sunak, who seldom passes up a chance to brand Starmer as a lefty London lawyer, shot back that he is “the man who takes the knee, who wanted to abolish the monarchy, and who still does not know what a woman is”.

Previously Starmer “chose to represent a now-proscribed terrorist group” Hizb ut-Tahrir, and “served” Jeremy Corbyn.

Both men knew that the insults they were sticking on each other were essentially unjustified distortions of the other, but that was what they chose to put on the national agenda at the most scrutinized moment of the political week.

Starmer has explicitly changed his party and his previous positions.

Under scrutiny, he has clarified and explained each of the specific acts detailed. It is a core principle of British justice that advocates are not surrogates for their clients.

Sunak was not laughing at the people he was talking to and spoke to them properly after the end of the clip.

The alleged greeting to Farage was repurposing an online meme which allows any name, in this case “Nigel”, to be put into the prime minister’s mouth.

Neither Sunak nor Starmer are classic alpha males.

Sunak comes across as a whiny or petulant geek, Starmer seems hesitant, overcautious and inclined to blame others.

Perhaps this is why they feel the need to overcompensate by acting rough and tough. Sir Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat leader, also has his moments of fabricated machismo.

The leaders set the tone and their petulance has been picked up in the campaigning efforts of their underlings and supporters.

Prime minister Boris Johnson took up an online distortion that Starmer had failed, when he was director of public prosecutions, to take action against Jimmy Savile.

This prompted the senior Downing Street aide Munira Mirza to resign protesting that this was “not the normal cut and thrust of politics”.

It soon would be. Labour cited Johnson’s attack as justification for their later personalised digital poster attacks on Rishi Sunak including the smear that he “doesn’t think adults convicted of sexually abusing children should go to prison”.

Since then Keir Starmer has gone out of his way not to back down or apologise; following the code of the playground he promises to punch back hard against any attacks.

At the start of election year he rejected an invitation from Beth Rigby to take up Michelle Obama’s famous recommendation: “When they go low, we go high”.

Instead, he told Sky News’ political editor: “If they want to go with fire, we will meet their fire with fire”.

Donald Trump crafts insults – Lyin’ Ted, Sleepy Joe, Ron DeSanctimonious – with cruel genius and gets away with fabulations.

There is only one Trump; honest political strivers should not try to copy him.

Opinion polls after personalised attacks usually show that support for both sides goes down, though more for the target than the attacker.

This should give all the party leaders something to think about, especially since public respect for politicians is at a record low and a low or differential turnout could be a major factor.

Starmer needs to mobilise enthusiasm for his leadership, not dent it. Sunak’s standing is already low and doesn’t want to drop further.

This government raised spending limits for the election campaign to £35m. Much of it will go on direct messaging to voters – which is harder to police than election broadcasts and billboards.

During the 2019 campaign, the Conservatives spent over a million on Facebook, much of it on messages disparaging Jeremy Corbyn.

Both Labour and Conservatives are already spending over a million a month on Facebook advertising.

Then there is what partisan supporters choose to put up on social media independently.

Labour has already advised its supporters to use humour.

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Even without explicitly taking sides humourists such as Coldwar Steve and Trumpton, liked and retweeted, can make some political weather, often by lowering the tone.

Political propagandising is much more equal opportunity than it used to be. Anyone can post.

On the other hand, the newspapers and other mainstream media no longer have a near monopoly.

In 1997 when The Sun ran its famous “Nightmare on Kinnock Street” and “Will the Last Person to Leave Britain Please Turn Off the Lights” attacks on Labour, the paper’s circulation was 3.9 million.

The last official figures released were 1.2 million in 2020.

Poster launches used to be major events in political campaigning, but who would bother with them today?

There are some worthwhile lessons to be learned from the classics.

The Saatchi brothers are celebrated for their attacking of billboards: Labour isn’t working, Labour’s tax bombshell and Labour’s Policy on Arms (showing a combat soldier surrendering hands up).

Each of these were masterpieces of wit and effort compared to the Conservatives’ adoption of the BBC newsreader caught giving the finger for “Labour when you ask for their plans to tackle immigration”.

The Saatchis’ best work riffed with precision on policy rather than personal insults.

When the Conservatives tried that with their “New Labour, New Danger” demon eyes poster it misfired; it was difficult to convincingly portray Blair as a devil when other Conservative sources were attacking him as an inexperienced Bambi.

Labour boobed depicting Cameron as a cute bicycling chameleon.

The most effective attacks at PMQs cut directly to the political issues facing the voters, rather than scuffling around in their past record for something compromising.

Mrs Thatcher struck directly and seemingly spontaneously at Michael Foot: “Afraid of an election is he? Afraid? Frightened? Frit?”.

“Weak, weak, weak,” Tony Blair gutted John Major. “You were the future once.”

Sunak, Starmer and their teams of advisors have yet to produce anything as authentic.

Something which would crystallise the political moment.

Instead, they and we can look forward to a year in the dirt as they scrabble around trying to find it.

Politics

Scotland’s new leader John Swinney scraps controversial gender recognition reforms

Published

2 hours ago

May 10, 2024

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Scotland's new leader John Swinney scraps controversial gender recognition reforms

Scotland’s new first minister appears to have scrapped controversial gender recognition reforms live on Sky News saying: “It cannot be implemented.”

John Swinney, who became first minister this week, has faced questions over his stance on gender recognition after MSPs voted in 2022 to pass a bill to make it simpler for people to change their gender without having to obtain a medical diagnosis.

However, the UK government blocked the bill from being made into law and the Supreme Court rejected a request by the Scottish government for a judicial review.

Asked if he would be fighting to push the bill through, Mr Swinney hinted he would be scrapping the scheme altogether.

He told Sky News: “The reality of the situation we face is that the Supreme Court has said that we can’t legislate in that area. We can’t take forward that legislation.”

His predecessor, Mr Yousaf, had previously suggested he wanted to work with UK Labour to amend the laws ahead of the general election but Mr Swinney was clear he will not be pushing for that.

Ministers said the scheme, dubbed self-id, was aimed at making life easier for the trans community but women’s campaigners said it threatened their rights.

Mr Swinney made former leadership contestant Kate Forbes his deputy this week, which has caused some consternation within the party as she previously said she would have voted against gay marriage but would not seek to overturn the law if she became first minister.

But Mr Swinney sought to reassure the LGBT community, saying he had voted for gay marriage and introduced inclusive education into schools when he was education secretary.

He added: “I think what’s the most important thing that I can see is that to LGBT people in our society, the Scottish government is on their side.

“We have been on their side and we will be on their side in the years to come.”

Independence in five years

Mr Swinney also said he believes the country could split from the rest of the UK in five years thanks to Brexit and the cost of living crisis.

He told Sky News: “I think independence can be delivered in that timescale because the arguments for it are compelling.

“If we look at two of the biggest issues we face as a country in Scotland; the effect of the cost of living and the implications of Brexit.

“Both of those are major strategic factors that are doing severe economic and social damage to Scotland because of bad decisions taken in Westminster.

“And independence is the answer to that.”

He said Scotland was “forced out of the European Union against our will” as a majority in the country voted to remain.

“If we’d been an independent country, we will be able to take part in Europe and not have all the damaging disruption that we faced,” he added.

Mr Swinney was deputy first minister under Nicola Sturgeon, who was leader of the SNP and first minister from 2014 to 2023 when she stepped down.

Ms Sturgeon wanted to use the next general election as a de facto second referendum on independence after the Supreme Court ruled a vote cannot be held without the UK government’s consent – but it is yet to be seen what Mr Swinney favours.

Politics

Natalie Elphicke defection ‘like being punched in the gut’, says Jess Philips

Published

4 hours ago

May 10, 2024

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Natalie Elphicke defection 'like being punched in the gut', says Jess Philips

Jess Phillips has revealed that seeing Natalie Elphicke cross the floor to join the Labour Party felt “a bit like being punched in the gut” given the former Conservative MP’s “victim blaming” after her ex-husband and former MP Charlie Elphike was convicted of sexual assault.

The former shadow minister for domestic violence told our Electoral Dysfunction podcast that the leadership should have handled the defection of Ms Elphickle “in a way that was slightly more sensitive to those of us who speak up on these particular issues”, as the MP for Birmingham Yardley hinted at the private anger and upset among Labour MPs over the shock arrival of Ms Elphicke, a Tory rightwinger who was a member of the Brexiteer ERG group and New Conservatives caucuses.

“I expressed my view quite clearly,” says Jess, as the backlash built last night, culminating in Ms Elphicke putting out a statement on Thursday, which I understand was driven by Sir Keir Starmer’s office, apologising to the victims of her ex-husband.

Ms Elphicke, who took the Dover & Deal seat uncontested after her now ex-husband Charlie Elphicke, was convicted of sexual assault, had defended him and said his conviction had been a “terrible miscarriage of justice” as she described Mr Elphicke as an “easy target”.

On Thursday, she released a statement apologising about the comments she had made about victims.

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She said: “The period of 2017 – 2020 was an incredibly stressful and difficult one for me as I learned more about the person I thought I knew. I know it was far harder for the women who had to relive their experiences and give evidence against him.

“I have previously, and do, condemn his behaviour towards other women and towards me. It was right that he was prosecuted and I’m sorry for the comments that I made about his victims.

“It is vital that women can have confidence in the criminal justice system and our rates of prosecution and conviction are far too low as a country.

“Keir Starmer’s mission to halve male violence against women and girls is critical and I wanted to take the opportunity to express my explicit support for Labour colleagues working to realise it.”

I understand that she had privately expressed these views to Sir Keir Starmer when discussing joining Labour, and that the party had made these public amid the backlash the Labour leader was facing in light of her defection.

The Labour leader has made tackling violence against women and girls a key election pledge.

Jess says the apology was “an absolute start, but is also a bare minimum”.

“I’m going to give her a chance to talk to me personally. There is a part of that statement about abuse and harm that he caused to her as well.

“I’m not saying that to excuse her. I am saying that because I think that she provides us with a lesson of how we could actually prevent this going forward and have some sort of cultural shift. So I don’t excuse her and I will give her, like I would with any woman, I will give her a fair chance.”

Ruth Davidson, meanwhile, says the defection, coupled with those terrible local elections, means the PM is “tripping into beleaguered territory”.

“By the time this election comes in November or whenever it is. I mean, we could be beleaguered, we could be in the rear-view mirror by then. I mean, it could be falling apart by that point… I mean apocalyptic.”

A dysfunctional week all around, one way or another.

Politics

Sir Keir Starmer to pledge ‘elite’ Border Unit with anti-terror powers to stop small boats

Published

4 hours ago

May 10, 2024

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Sir Keir Starmer to pledge 'elite' Border Unit with anti-terror powers to stop small boats

Labour will create a new Border Security Command to tackle people-smuggling gangs bringing migrants across the Channel, Sir Keir Starmer is set to announce.

The “elite” unit, to be part-funded by scrapping the Tories’ Rwanda deportation scheme, will be led by a former police, military or intelligence chief and be granted new powers under the Counter Terrorism Act.

Politics Live: New Labour MP’s apology ‘unlikely to change minds’

These powers will allow officers to conduct stop and searches at the border, carry out financial investigations and issue search and seizure warrants targeting organised immigration crime.

Sir Keir will outline the measures in a speech on the Kent coast on Friday, when he will vow to “replace gimmicks with graft” and draw on his experience as the former head of the Crown Prosecution Service.

The Labour leader will say: “Let’s be clear at the start, these are criminal enterprises we are dealing with.

“A business that pits nation against nation, thrives in the grey areas of our rules, the cracks between our institutions, where, they believe, they can exploit some of the most vulnerable people in the world with impunity.

“It’s a vile trade that preys on the desperation and hope it finds in its victims.”

The speech comes after the defection of Dover MP Natalie Elphicke, who joined Labour from the Conservatives on Wednesday, accusing the prime minister of failing to deliver on his promise to “stop the boats”.

The move was met with shock and bafflement on the Conservative benches, given Ms Elphicke has previously attacked Sir Keir on immigration and seen as being on the right of her party.

It left some Labour MPs less than impressed too, with the Brexiteer apologising on Thursday over past comments supporting her sex offender ex-husband.

Ms Elphicke said the “key deciding factors” in her defection were housing issues and “the safety and security of our borders”.

Speaking from the constituency of his newest MP, Sir Keir will accuse the government of “rank incompetence” on immigration, dismissing the Rwanda scheme as being unable to provide an effective deterrent and accusing the Conservatives of operating a “Travelodge amnesty” by housing migrants in hotels rather than processing their claims.

Over 52,000 people are stuck in the asylum backlog while some 8,826 migrants have arrived in the UK after crossing the Channel so far this year, provisional Home Office figures show.

This is up 32% on this time last year, when 6,691 migrants were recorded, and a 14% rise compared with the same period in 2022 (7,750), according to PA news agency analysis of the data.

Labour has previously vowed to scrap the Rwanda scheme and focus its efforts on targeting people-smuggling gangs and clearing the asylum backlog.

The new command will be funded by diverting £75m of the money allocated for the first year of the scheme, which is yet to be up and running.

The policy has been mired in setbacks since it was announced two years ago, with the first flights expected to take off in the summer, Downing Street has said.