Europe’s biggest EV market is about to hit a perfect storm of problems
Germany is Europe’s biggest auto market, and it’s been one of the main drivers of EV growth. But now that is expected to change course, as EV sales are projected to drop – by 14% – for the first time in eight years.
Germany’s VDA, an interest group for the country’s automobile industry, says that battery-powered vehicles are likely to see a decline from 524,000 units last year – more than any other European market – to 451,000 units this year. Considering Germany is aiming to have 15 million BEVs on the road by 2030, that number is moving in the wrong direction.
It’s due to a number of factors – primarily because Germany pulled the plug on this EV subsidy program in December, a full year earlier than expected. Add nflation, rising car prices, and “sub-par charging infrastructure,” writes Automotive News Europe, into the mix, and it’s inevitable that sales will drop.
According to Automotive News Europe, manufacturers are pushing back rollouts of EVs, and rental firms are “paring purchases for their fleets.”
Still, even after the subsidy loss, automakers like Tesla, VW, Audi, Stellantis, and Mercedes-Benz have jumped in to compensate for it, at least for a little while.
Renault announced Monday its plan to delay the IPO of its EV startup Ampere, citing slow demand and difficult market conditions as the rationale. Bloomberg reported, too, that Volkswagen is doing the same with its EV business, with sources telling Bloomberg that VW is pushing back its IPO plans for its battery unit.
Still, the decline isn’t all that shocking: Germany’s passenger car market, VDA expects it to shrink by 1% to 2.82 million this year. But that’s part of a downward trend that has been happening since the pandemic, according to VDA.
According to VDA estimates, the global market should see a 2% growth to 77.4 million cars, compared to the 78.8 pre-pandemic. It forecasts the global market to grow by 2% to 77.4 million cars.
Germany is expected to produce 1.45 EVs this year, but much of that output will be exported, the report said. After China, Germany is the world’s second-largest passenger car BEV producer – but considering China produced 6.6 million BEVs in 2023 to Germany’s 1.2 million, that’s a pretty big gap. For comparison, the US produced 1.1 million EVs last year, according to data from VDA and S&P Global Mobility.
Electrek’s Take
The caveat here, too, is that VDA is a lobbyist group for German automakers, powered by stalwarts BMW, Volkswagen, and Mercedes, which are in a tight position as they struggle to adapt to EVs and keep pace with China’s BYD and Tesla. Plus Porsche’s CFO Lutz Meschke said that Europe may push back its 2035 ban on ICE vehicles due to slowing EV demand – so that’s not comforting news of what might be brewing.
Jobs – the good-paying kind with benefits and protections – are on the line too: Volkswagen said it would cut thousands of jobs in Germany to slash $11 billion in costs, and German EV suppliers are cutting jobs, with one of the country’s largest suppliers saying it might slash 20% of its workforce due to low demand.
But peaks and valleys are par for the course in the auto industry, and EVs certainly aren’t immune to this. Still, European automakers are drumming up new models to stay in the game. For its part, BMW says it is now investing $711 million (€650 million) to convert its main factory in Munich to exclusively produce electric vehicles by the end of 2027, in hopes of pushing its next-gen Neue Klasse EVs forward. The automaker says it hit its target of 15% share of battery-electric vehicles – and expects to sell half a million BEVs in 2024.
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Toyota has the worst climate lobbying score of any automaker, and the third-worst 2030 EV production plans, according to InfluenceMap’s annual report on climate lobbying.
Another year, another report showing how bad Toyota is for the environment.
Toyota has routinely ranked at the bottom of InfluenceMap’s climate policy engagement rankings, and this year is no different.
InfluenceMap routinely ranks automakers and auto industry associations based on how much they lobby to stop climate policy goals. These rankings don’t just show automakers’ EV plans, but also show how much each automaker is doing to try to stop governments from protecting the populace from pollution.
Some of this lobbying comes from automakers themselves, and some of it comes from their membership in trade associations, which aggregate the positions of several companies to increase lobbying power.
InfluenceMap looks at the actions of these trade associations across the globe, and ranks automakers based on how many associations they’re a member of, how many briefs they’ve filed in favor of or against various climate policy goals, and what their plans are for the future of their manufacturing.
This is broken down into an “organization score” (how much the organization itself lobbies), “relationship score” (membership in trade organizations and how positive their lobbying efforts are), “engagement intensity” (how involved in lobbying the corporation is), and what the manufacturer’s EV manufacturing plans total up to.
Tesla led the list, but only received a “B” score because of its low engagement intensity. While Tesla supports positive climate policy and is generally a member of groups pushing positive instead of negative climate policy, it doesn’t lobby as much as other organizations do (a situation that may be made worse by the departure of Tesla’s policy head in April).
Some other automakers were given kudos for occasional positive moves, like Ford, GM, VW and Mercedes. But pretty much nobody got what could be considered a passing score – with “C-” grades or worse for all but three automakers.
And as usual, the Japanese automakers are ranked among the lowest. The Japanese EV industry has been slow to electrify, putting an important national industry at risk. Nissan is the standout from amongst the Japanese, but it still did not receive a passing grade.
On production plans, most automakers score poorly, with only 3 of the 15 automakers analyzed having commitments compatible with the International Energy Agency’s target of 66% EVs by 2030. This number is necessary to have any chance of limiting climate change to 1.5ºC. Forecasts suggest the industry will only produce 53% EVs by 2030 at current pace.
Toyota does not actually rank last place on this measure – Honda and Suzuki are behind it. But given the intensity of Toyota’s negative climate lobbying, it gets the crown for worst automaker on climate once again, continuing the several years it has worn it.
For more detail into the rankings, read the full InfluenceMap report here.
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To ensure its new Mustang Mach-E Rally car is ready to tackle any terrain, Ford set up a secret course to test it. Ford says its new electric rally car is a testament to what’s possible when you combine passion with design and engineering. Check out how the Mach-E Rally car evolved below.
The electric Mustang rally car is here
“Can we make a rally-inspired version of the Mustang Mach-E?” Ford’s product planners, Peter Schultz and Craig Migliori, were asked in 2022. Their answer? Absolutely.
Shultz and Migliori took a “hand-me-down” Mustang Mach-E GT and added new wheels and off-road tires. After testing it at Ford’s Michigan Proving Grounds, they were confident it could become a reality.
The team lifted the Mach-E GT 1″ with RallyCross-tuned shocks and springs to enable it to tackle rougher terrain. Meanwhile, 19″ wheels wrapped in Michelin CrossClimate 2 rubber and underbody shielding are added to help protect the vehicle.
Not only did the Rally car need off-road capability, but the team also knew it needed a rugged design to accompany it.
Contrasting accents on the upper and lower body moldings, a front splitter and rear spoiler, and a black painted steel roof are added for a more aggressive style. The Mustang Mach-E also features built-in rally-inspired fog lights.
To prove the modifications were worthy, Ford off-road attributes engineer Chris Berchin and vehicle engineering supervisor Jay Kistler put the electric Rally car up to the test.
Ford sets up secret rally course for testing
The team set up a secret 500 combined mile “torture test” course at Ford’s Michigan Proving Grounds. The new course was designed to put the Mustang Mach-E Rally through the equivalent of about ten years of monthly rallycross racing.
Tests included tight turns through loose dirt terrain. “We tested in numerous different weather scenarios and temperatures with conditions ranging from muddy to dry – typical of what rallycross competitors might face,” Berchin explained.
“Likewise, the surface is dirt of varying composition, allowing for different traction scenarios.” Before building the course, the team went to Rallycross events and interviewed drivers to make sure they were projecting a true representation of what the environment looks and feels like.
Using this info, Ford engineers plotted the course with a full computer-aided engineering (CAE) analysis, complete with mapping elevation, exact speeds, timing, and more.
Ford used the tech to make it feel and look like a rally course with data to back it up. The secret in-house course enabled Ford to keep cost and development time down while keeping the electric rally car under wraps.
Ford’s RallySport drive mode unlocks the full potential of the electric Rally car, enabling bigger slides, a more linear throttle response, and aggressive damping for better control.
The Mustang Mach-E Rally has 265 miles EPA estimated range with up to 480 hp and 700 lb-ft of torque. Charging from 10% to 80% is expected in 36.5 minutes. Ford’s new Mustang Mach-E electric Rally car is available for order starting at $59,995.
Are you ready to drive off in a new Ford Mustang Mach-E? You can use our link to view deals on the 2024 Ford Mustang Mach-E in your area.
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