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The UK is living in “truly dangerous times” with the chance of “large-scale conflict” likelier than at any point in recent history, defence officials have warned.

Russia‘s war in Ukraine, Iran-linked violence in the Middle East and the potential for China to invade Taiwan are among the challenges that could spark a sudden escalation.

At the same time, new weapons developed by rival states are growing in lethality.

China has a “world-leading” arsenal of hypersonic missiles that can travel at least five times faster than the speed of sound, making them very difficult to destroy once launched, officials said.

They signalled the best way to defeat such a weapon – like the DF-17 or longer-range DF-27 ballistic missiles – would be to locate the launch sites inside China and take them out before they are fired.

The comments were made as a group of journalists was given rare access to a top-secret military spy base in Cambridgeshire.

RAF Wyton hosts one of the biggest intelligence analysis centres among Western allies inside a complex called the Pathfinder Building.

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Running 24 hours a day, seven days a week, analysts and other experts work inside a giant, grey, windowless room with a high ceiling, about the size of an indoor football pitch.

Teams are divided into sections, seated around white, curved desks, each with computers and screens, while television monitors beam in live images from satellite and drone feeds from areas of interest around the world.

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Will defence spending hit 2.5% of GDP?

One official said it is the “biggest top secret floor plate” dedicated to intelligence analysis, specifically for a group of close allies known as the Five Eyes – the UK, the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

Red, glowing digits from a line of digital clocks along one wall give a nod to the allies and other areas of interest, offering the time zones for Washington, Zulu (GMT), Stuttgart, Moscow, Canberra and Wellington.

The hall is one of several classified sites across the country used by Defence Intelligence, which comprises around 4,500 personnel in total – two-thirds military, one-third civilian.

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Staff are also deployed overseas on missions.

While not a bespoke agency, Defence Intelligence is the military-focused branch of the UK’s intelligence community, which also comprises MI6, MI5 and GCHQ.

A second official said demand for the work of military spies is the highest they have known it since at least Russia’s first attempt to invade Ukraine in 2014.

“I believe we are living in truly dangerous times,” the official said, noting that the task for Defence Intelligence is to provide “insight and foresight”.

Underlining the importance of this kind of input, the official said: “There won’t be time from a warning to making significant changes to be prepared for large-scale conflict.”

The official added: “We are in a pre-war situation… [We are] at a point when large-scale conflict is more likely than it has been in recent history.”

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The comments came after General Sir Patrick Sanders, the outgoing head of the British Army, said last month that the UK public needs to be ready to fight in a future war.

In addition, Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, has cautioned about a “pre-war world”, though without announcing any change of policy to better prepare the nation, including civilians and industry, for the reality of what a future war would mean.

A third defence official offered a view of the threat picture facing the UK and its allies.

“We are generally seeing a world that is complex and increasingly interconnected and has more threats of instability and competition,” the official said.

Russia – nuclear-armed and seeking to expand – remains the most acute threat facing the UK and its allies, but officials said they are “very alive” to the challenge posed by China.

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More prisoners are being transferred to less secure jails to tackle overcrowding crisis, Sky News understands

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More prisoners are being transferred to less secure jails to tackle overcrowding crisis, Sky News understands

The prison service is starting to recategorise the security risk of offenders to ease capacity pressures, Sky News understands.

It involves lowering or reconsidering the threshold of certain offenders to move them from the closed prison estate (category A to C) to the open estate (category D) because there are more free cell spaces there.

Examples of this could include discounting adjudications – formal hearings when a prisoner is accused of breaking the rules – for certain offenders, so they don’t act as official reasons not to transport them to a lower-security jail.

Prisoners are also categorised according to an Incentives and Earned Privileges (IEP) status. There are different levels – basic, standard and enhanced – based on how they keep to the rules or display a commitment to rehabilitation.

Usually ‘enhanced’ prisoners take part in meaningful activity – employment and training – making them eligible among other factors, to be transferred to the open estate.

Insiders suggest this system in England and Wales is being rejigged so that greater numbers of ‘standard’ prisoners can transfer, whereas before it would more typically be those with ‘enhanced’ status.

Open prisons have minimal security and allow eligible prisoners to spend time on day release away from the prison on license conditions to carry out work or education.

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The aim is to help reintegrate them back into society once they leave. As offenders near the end of their sentence, they are housed in open prisons.

Many of those released as part of the early release scheme in October after serving 40% of their sentence were freed from open prisons.

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Overcrowding in UK prisons


They were the second tranche of offenders freed as part of this scheme, and had been sentenced to five years or more.

Despite early release measures, prisons are still battling a chronic overcrowding crisis. The male estate is almost full, operating at around 97% capacity.

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Sky News understands there continue to be particular pinch points across the country.

Southwest England struggled over the weekend with three space-related ‘lockouts’ – which means prisoners are held in police suites or transferred to other jails because there is no space.

One inmate is believed to have been transported from Exeter to Cardiff.

A Ministry of Justice spokesperson said: “The new government inherited a prison system on the point of collapse. We took the necessary action to stop our prisons from overflowing and to protect the public.

“This is not a new scheme. Only less-serious offenders who meet a strict criteria are eligible, and the Prison Service can exclude anyone who can’t be managed safely in a category D prison.”

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Prisoner driven to psychosis after stealing mobile phone unable to undergo health test ‘due to lack of staff’

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Prisoner driven to psychosis after stealing mobile phone unable to undergo health test 'due to lack of staff'

A prisoner who has served 12 years in jail for stealing a mobile phone was unable to attend a psychiatric assessment because of a lack of staff, his family claims.

According to psychiatrists, Thomas White has developed psychosis as a direct result of being handed a controversial indefinite jail term called imprisonment for public protection (IPP), which was abolished in 2012.

His sister has been campaigning for over a year to have him transferred to a hospital, which would require him to receive sign-off from two separate psychiatrists.

Ms White said her brother, who experiences religious hallucinations, was placed in segregation and needed three prison staff to release him from his cell – but they were not available due to staff shortages.

Clara White, pictured with her brother Thomas and their mother Margaret at Strangeways prison.
Image:
Thomas White pictured with his sister Clara White and their mother Margaret at Manchester prison

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Sky News understands that Lord Blunkett, the former Labour home secretary who introduced the IPP sentence but now campaigns for reform, has asked prisons minister Lord Timpson to investigate.

What are IPP sentences?

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Thomas White, now aged 40, was one of more than 8,000 offenders who were given an IPP sentence – a type of open-ended prison sentence the courts could impose from 2005 until they were scrapped.

The sentence – which has been described as a form of “psychological torture” by human rights experts – was intended for serious violent and sexual offenders who posed a significant risk of serious harm to the public but whose crimes did not warrant a life term.

Although the government’s stated aim was public protection, concerns quickly grew that IPP sentences were being applied too broadly and catching more minor offenders, partly due to the fact that previous convictions were taken into account when determining whether someone posed a “significant risk”.

Thomas was sentenced to two years for stealing the mobile phone in a non-violent exchange back in 2012 – but because he had 16 previous convictions for theft and robberies, he was given an IPP sentence and has served 12 years.

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What is an IPP sentence?

The coalition government scrapped the sentence in 2012, but the change was not applied retrospectively, meaning 2,852 prisoners remain behind bars – including 1,227 who have never been released.

The new government is under increasing pressure to act on the IPP crisis given they were introduced by Lord Blunkett – who has since said he feels “deep regret” about the way the sentence was used.

‘My brother is being seriously failed’

In an email to Lord Blunkett, seen by Sky News, Ms White said: “My brother had a psychiatric appointment on the 1 November to see if he could be admitted to an outside hospital as he has to have two signatures to be transferred to an outside hospital.

“The system is nothing but criminal – people like my brother are being seriously failed.

“We waited a long time to have Thomas assessed again by the psychiatrist. We more than likely won’t get the assessment again.”

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Inside the lives of IPP prisoners

James Frith, the Labour MP for Bury North, said: “Thomas’ case highlights why these sentences were abolished over a decade ago.

“Thomas’s indefinite imprisonment has had a hugely detrimental impact on his mental and physical wellbeing. Thomas should be a patient, not a prisoner.

“We know the prison system is underfunded and overcapacity, but this is no excuse for failing Thomas. I have been working with Clara, Thomas’ sister, and I have written to the Lord Chancellor to raise Thomas’s case and the wider issues of IPPs.

“Thomas has been denied appropriate assessment and care for too long, we will not give up this fight for what is right.”

The Ministry of Justice does not comment on individual medical cases.

It is understood Lord Timpson will respond to Lord Blunkett in due course.

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Home secretary to announce extra £500m for neighbourhood policing

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Home secretary to announce extra £500m for neighbourhood policing

An extra £500m of additional funding will be given to neighbourhood policing, the home secretary is set to announce.

Yvette Cooper will also lay out plans for a new unit to improve the performances of police forces across the country to end the “postcode lottery” of how effectively crimes are dealt with.

The Home Office says the unit will directly monitor police performance in areas prioritised by the government, including tackling violence against women and girls and knife crime.

The home secretary will make the announcements in her first major speech at the annual conference of the National Police Chiefs’ Council and Association of Police and Crime Commissioners on Tuesday.

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Ms Cooper is expected to say: “Public confidence is the bedrock of our British policing model but in recent years it has been badly eroded, as neighbourhood policing has been cut back and as outdated systems and structures have left the police struggling to keep up with a fast-changing criminal landscape.

“That’s why we’re determined to rebuild neighbourhood policing, to improve performance across police forces and to ensure the highest standards are being upheld across the service.

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“The challenge of rebuilding public confidence is a shared one for government and policing.

“This is an opportunity for a fundamental reset in that relationship, and together we will embark on this roadmap for reform to regain the trust and support of the people we all serve and to reinvigorate the best of policing.”

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As well as the new government performance unit, ministers also hope to improve the relationship between the public and the police by standardising and measuring police response times – something that is not currently monitored.

In the aftermath of the summer riots, sparked by the Southport stabbings on 29 July, Ms Cooper said respect for the police needed to be restored after the “brazen abuse and contempt” shown by the perpetrators.

She said too often people feel “crime has no consequences” and that “has to change” as she promised to restore confidence in policing and the criminal justice system.

Dr Rick Muir, director of policing thinktank the Police Foundation, said: “A serious reform programme like this in policing is long overdue.

“Too often in the past, officers at the frontline have been let down by outdated technology, inadequate training and inefficient support services.

“Until these issues are addressed, the public won’t get the quality of policing they deserve.”

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