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Rishi Sunak has insisted national debt is “on schedule” to fall – despite one of his ministers coming under fire for making the same claim.

Laura Trott, the chief secretary to the Treasury, was accused of not knowing the “basic facts of her job” after she repeatedly claimed debt is falling as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP).

Her claims came despite the latest official projections which suggest there will be an increase in debt over the next five years.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said in November that debt is forecast to climb as a percentage of national income from 89% in 2023/24 to 92.8% in 2028/29.

Reducing debt is one of the five pledges Mr Sunak made to the public at the start of 2023, along with cutting NHS waiting lists and “stopping the boats”.

Ms Trott was presented with the OBR forecast during an interview on BBC Radio 4’s PM programme – and responded by saying she had “different figures”.

She said the prime minister’s central pledge was that “debt needs to be falling over the five-year fiscal forecast as a percentage of GDP, which it is”.

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When challenged, Ms Trott appeared to say quietly “I’m not sure” – to which presenter Evan Davis said: “This is really basic… I’m amazed that you don’t know that debt is rising.”

The minister replied: “I think I need to have the figures. I’ve got different figures which… I think we just need to… yeah.”

LAURA TROTT
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Treasury minister Laura Trott has been accused of not knowing the ‘basic facts’ of her job


Speaking to broadcasters on Friday, the prime minister appeared to defend Ms Trott.

Asked how the public could have confidence in the economy following the minister’s remarks, Mr Sunak said: “Debt is on schedule to fall as measured by the independent Office of Budget Responsibility, which they’ve affirmed at the last autumn statement that the chancellor gave.

“But our plan for the economy is working – inflation has come down from 11% to 4%. Mortgage rates are starting to come down, wages are rising and because economic conditions are now improving, we’ve been able to start cutting people’s taxes.”

‘It’s terrifying these people are in charge’

The OBR forecast Mr Davis cited says debt will start to fall in the latter half of this decade, but it will still be higher in five years than it is currently.

The projection is that debt will rise from 89% of GDP now to 93.2% in 2026/27. It will then decline in the final two years to 92.8% of GDP by 2028/29.

This was highlighted by a Downing Street spokesperson when contacted for comment. They said it meant the government was “on track to meet our commitment to have debt falling in five years’ time”.

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What is fiscal headroom?

Mr Sunak’s description of debt as being “on schedule” to fall is different to the language he has used in the past, when he claimed it had already been reduced.

The claim earned him a rebuke from the statistics watchdog, which said he may have caused “confusion” and “undermined trust in the government’s use of statistics”.

To measure debt, the government tends to use public sector net debt (PSND) excluding the Bank of England (BoE).

Public sector net debt on its own is forecast to drop by around 4% as a share of GDP over the next five years, but underlying debt, excluding the state bank, is set to rise by around 4% in the same period.

PSND, excluding the BoE, is forecast to drop slightly at the end of the five-year projection – from 93.2% in 2027/28 to 92.8% – but that is still higher than the 89% it is currently.

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Labour said it was “terrifying” that people like Ms Trott were in charge of the country’s finances.

The party‘s shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, Darren Jones, said: “The Tories have crashed the economy and doubled the national debt over the last decade.

“This evening we discover that Laura Trott, Jeremy Hunt’s number two, doesn’t even know the basic facts of her job.

“It’s terrifying to think these people are not just in charge of the country’s finances, but still think they can lecture anyone else.”

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Row over how many farms will be affected by inheritance tax policy – as PM doubles down ahead of farmers protest

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Row over how many farms will be affected by inheritance tax policy - as PM doubles down ahead of farmers protest

Sir Keir Starmer has insisted the “vast majority of farmers” will not be affected by changes to Inheritance Tax (IHT) ahead of a protest outside parliament on Tuesday.

It follows Chancellor Rachel Reeves announcing a 20% inheritance tax that will apply to farms worth more than £1m from April 2026, where they were previously exempt.

But the prime minister looked to quell fears as he resisted calls to change course.

Speaking from the G20 summit in Brazil, he said: “If you take a typical case of a couple wanting to pass a family farm down to one of their children, which would be a very typical example, with all of the thresholds in place, that’s £3m before any inheritance tax is paid.”

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The comments come as thousands of farmers, including celebrity farmer Jeremy Clarkson, are due to descend on Whitehall on Tuesday to protest the change.

And 1,800 more will take part in a “mass lobby” where members of the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) will meet their MPs in parliament to urge them to ask Ms Reeves to reconsider the policy.

Speaking to broadcasters, Sir Keir insisted the government is supportive of farmers, pointing to a £5bn investment announced for them in the budget.

He said: “I’m confident that the vast majority of farms and farmers will not be affected at all by that aspect of the budget.

“They will be affected by the £5bn that we’re putting into farming. And I’m very happy to work with farmers on that.”

Sir Keir’s spokesman made a similar argument earlier on Monday, saying the government expects 73% of farms to not be affected by the change.

Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs Secretary Steve Reed said only about 500 out of the UK’s 209,000 farms would be affected, according to Treasury calculations.

However, that number has been questioned by several farming groups and the Conservatives.

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The NFU said the real number is about two-thirds, with its president Tom Bradshaw calling the government’s figures “misleading” and accusing it of not understanding the sector.

The Country Land and Business Association (CLA) said the policy could affect 70,000 farms.

Conservative shadow farming minister Robbie Moore accused the government last week of “regurgitating” figures that represent “past claimants of agricultural property relief, not combined with business property relief” because he said the Treasury does not have that data.

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Farmers' tractor protest outside the Welsh Labour conference in Llandudno, North Wales
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Welsh farmers carried out a protest outside the Welsh Labour conference in Llandudno, North Wales, over the weekend

Agricultural property relief (APR) currently provides farmers 100% relief from paying inheritance tax on agricultural land or pasture used for rearing livestock or fish, and can include woodland and buildings, such as farmhouses, if they are necessary for that land to function.

Farmers can also claim business property relief (BPR), providing 50% or 100% relief on assets used by a trading business, which for farmers could include land, buildings, plant or machinery used by the business, farm shops and holiday cottages.

APR and BPR can often apply to the same asset, especially farmed land, but APR should be the priority, however BPR can be claimed in addition if APR does not cover the full value (e.g. if the land has development value above its agricultural value).

File pic: iStock
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APR and BPR can apply to farmland, which the Conservatives say has been overlooked by the Treasury in compiling its impact figures. File pic: iStock

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Mr Moore said the Department for the Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and the Treasury have disagreed on how many farms will be impacted “by as much as 40%” due to the lack of data on farmers using BPR.

Lib Dem MP Tim Farron said last week1,400 farmers in Cumbria, where he is an MP, will be affected and will not be able to afford to pay the tax as many are on less than the minimum wage despite being asset rich.

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Cabinet split over assisted dying as Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson latest to reveal she will vote against bill

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Cabinet split over assisted dying as Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson latest to reveal she will vote against bill

A split is emerging in the cabinet, with Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson revealing she will join several of her colleagues and vote against the bill to legalise assisted dying.

Ms Phillipson told Sky News she will vote against the proposed legislation at the end of this month, which would give terminally ill people with six months to live the option to end their lives.

She voted against assisted dying in 2015 and said: “I haven’t changed my mind.

“I continue to think about this deeply. But my position hasn’t changed since 2015.”

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Details of end of life bill released

MPs will be given a free vote on the bill, so they will not be told how to vote by their party.

The topic has seen a split in the cabinet – however, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has yet to reveal how he will vote on 29 November.

Ms Phillipson joins some other big names who have publicly said they are voting against the bill

These include Deputy PM Angela Rayner, Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds.

Border security minister Angela Eagle is also voting against the bill.

Senior cabinet members voting in favour of assisted dying include Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, Science Secretary Peter Kyle, Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy, Northern Ireland Secretary Hilary Benn, Transport Secretary Louise Haigh and Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens.

The split over the issue is said to be causing friction within government, with Sir Keir rebuking the health secretary for repeatedly saying he is against the bill and for ordering officials to review the costs of implementing any changes in the law.

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Health Secretary Wes Streeting delivering a keynote speech on the second day of the 2024 NHS Providers conference and exhibition, at the ACC Liverpool. Picture date: Wednesday November 13, 2024. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS NHS. Photo credit should read: Peter Byrne/PA Wire
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Health Secretary Wes Streeting has called for a cost report into assisted dying. Pic: PA

Sky News’ deputy political editor Sam Coates has been told Morgan McSweeney, the PM’s chief of staff, is concerned about the politics of the bill passing.

He is understood to be worried the issue will dominate the agenda next year and, while he is not taking a view on the bill, he can see it taking over the national conversation and distracting from core government priorities like the economy and borders.

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Details of the bill were published last week and include people wanting to end their life having to self-administer the medicine.

It would only be allowed for terminally ill people who have been given six months to live.

Two independent doctors would have to confirm a patient is eligible for assisted dying and a High Court judge would have to give their approval before it could go ahead.

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Lord Patten calls on Sir Keir Starmer to condemn ‘sham’ sentencing of 45 Hong Kong pro-democracy campaigners

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Lord Patten calls on Sir Keir Starmer to condemn 'sham' sentencing of 45 Hong Kong pro-democracy campaigners

Lord Patten, the last governor of Hong Kong, has called on the British government to condemn the “sham” sentencing of 45 Hong Kong politicians and activists as Sir Keir Starmer holds talks with the Chinese president.

The former opposition pro-democracy politicians, social workers, activists and academics are due to be sentenced on Tuesday for conspiring to subvert power through an unofficial “primary” election four years ago.

Members of the public have been queuing to attend their sentencing, which will see them facing up to life in jail.

It is Hong Kong’s largest and longest-running prosecution under the national security law, which was enforced by Beijing and saw months of mass protests, police violence and arrests in 2020 and 2021.

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Called the “Hong Kong 47” after 47 were charged in January 2021 with conspiracy to commit subversion, 45 of them are set to be sentenced this week after two were acquitted in May this year.

Lord Patten, a patron of British NGO Hong Kong Watch, said the sentences tomorrow will be a “sham” and he called on the prime minister to speak out against them.

Sir Keir met Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Rio on Monday where he told him a “strong UK-China relationship is important for both of our countries”.

The UK PM told reporters on Sunday he intended to pursue a “serious, pragmatic” relationship with Beijing.

Keir Starmer during a bilateral meeting with Xi Jinping.
Pic: PA
Image:
Sir Keir Starmer during a meeting with Xi Jinping in Rio. Pic: PA

Lord Patten said: “The sentencing of 45 of the 47 Hong Kong democrats is not only an affront to the people of Hong Kong, but those who value rights and freedoms around the world.

“These brave individuals were an integral part of defining the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong, and were peacefully supported by thousands through votes.

“I absolutely condemn these sham sentences, which resulted from a non-jury trial and point to the destruction of freedoms of assembly, expression, and the press in Hong Kong.

“The UK government must not allow the results of this case to go unnoticed or uncondemned.”

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Historic meeting between Starmer and Xi

Sir Keir’s meeting with President Xi in Rio is the first of any prime minister in more than six years.

The PM and his foreign secretary, David Lammy, have been critical of China in the past, particularly regarding allegations of human rights abuses against Uyghurs in Xinjiang.

Relations between the UK and China have become frosty over the last decade as the Conservative government spoke out against human rights abuses and concerns grew over national security risks from Chinese investment.

Sir Keir appears to be prioritising trade, with China being Britain’s sixth largest trading partner, accounting for 5% of goods and services trade worth £86.5bn.

The PM’s spokesman said Sir Keir told Mr Xi he wants to “engage honestly and frankly on those areas where we have different perspectives, including on Hong Kong, human rights and Russia’s war in Ukraine”.

Joshua Wong walking to a prison van in March
Image:
Student protest leader turned politician Joshua Wong is one of the Hong Kong 47. Pic: Reuters

Hong Kong 47 in jail for nearly four years

Most of the Hong Kong 47 have been in custody since they were arrested in early 2021.

One of the most famous members of the group is Nobel Peace Prize nominee Joshua Wong, a student protest leader who became leader of the now-disbanded political group Demosisto.

Sixteen of the group pleaded not guilty, with 14 of them convicted after a 118-day trial without a jury. Those found guilty will be sentenced along with 31 who pleaded guilty.

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They were arrested after organising a primary election in July 2020 aiming to help pro-democracy politicians seize a majority in the 2021 Legislative Council elections.

Prosecutors said had they won a majority in the chamber, the democrats were planning to “indiscriminately” veto bills, including the annual budget, which would force the chief executive’s resignation and a government shutdown.

National security judges ruled the move would have plunged Hong Kong into a “constitutional crisis”.

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