Sean Bell: What the military shake-up in Ukraine means for the war

Published

9 months ago

February 10, 2024

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After months of speculation about a rift with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi has been removed from his post, with the president saying it was “time for renewal”.

Gen Zaluzhnyi is seen as a national hero by many Ukrainians – so why has he been replaced, and will this change Ukraine’s fortunes in the war with Russia?

It is not unusual for military leadership to be rotated during an extended period of combat operations. Gen Zaluzhnyi is considered to have been instrumental in resisting the Russian invasion and is an immensely popular figure in Ukraine.

But, military leadership requires a broad spectrum of personal attributes, and popularity is not high on the list.

Wartime requires difficult decisions to be made, often at great sacrifice by those under command, placing a very heavy burden on senior commanders. Even the most hardened commanders eventually start to feel the strain.

Ukraine is the David to Russia’s superpower goliath, so Gen Zaluzhnyi was quick to embrace Western military tactics and support to avoid conventional Soviet-era attritional warfare.

The West provided high-tech precision weapons, modern battle tanks and missiles, plus combat training for Ukraine’s forces; however, the much anticipated 2023 “spring” counteroffensive failed to achieve its objectives.

With the benefit of hindsight, without a credible combat air capability – modern fighter jets – Ukraine was always going to struggle.

The Ukrainians fought bravely, but a war of attrition beckoned, and Gen Zaluzhnyi knew that limited resources had to be preserved.

With a static frontline and waning Western support, political pressure grew to make progress. This created tensions between the military and political leadership, with Gen Zaluzhnyi wary of mounting continued offensive action without Western military support.

Ukraine needed more weapons to prevail which would take time – time that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy judged Ukraine did not have.

The final straw appears to have been reached in November last year when – in a long essay and interview in The Economist magazine – Gen Zaluzhnyi said the war had reached a stalemate.

Whatever the battlefield realities, President Zelenskyy needed to breed confidence in Western allies that victory remained possible, if military equipment and ammunition were forthcoming.

Recognising that Ukraine was in a stalemate, with Russia still occupying 20% of Ukraine’s territory, was unhelpful.

So, President Zelenskyy decided on a change of approach and strategy.

However, in the circumstances, the decision to replace the popular head of the Ukrainian military will have carried risk.

Military coups occur when the military loses faith with their political masters, and it is evident that President Zelenskyy and Gen Zaluzhnyi have very different views about the next stage of the war.

But, after weeks of rumours, eventually a smooth transition has been agreed.

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The new head of Ukraine’s armed forces is 58-year-old Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, an older and even more battle-hardened officer.

But, since Gen Syrskyi will inherit the same military shortcomings that challenged his predecessor, it is hard to see how this change will have a significant impact on the battlefield.

Gen Syrskyi also has less experience with Western military doctrine that underpins most Western hi-tech munitions.

As for Zaluzhnyi, analysts have long speculated about whether he could one day emerge as a political rival to President Zelenskyy in future elections.

General Eisenhower – the supreme commander of the Allied Expeditionary Force in Europe in the Second World War – had no apparent political ambitions at the end of the war, yet became the 34th president of the US just a few years later.

However, at this stage, it looks unlikely that Gen Zaluzhnyi would seek political office until the war with Russia is over.

Gen Zaluzhnyi has proven a popular and capable wartime leader and will be a very hard act to follow.

But, sometimes a change brings fresh perspectives and opportunities, and President Zelenskyy will be hoping that this change heralds a change of fortunes for Ukraine’s war with Russia.

However, time is not on President Zelenskyy’s side, and he will probably need rather more than a change in military leadership to turn the tide of the war in Ukraine’s favour.

World

Over 100 politicians from multiple countries condemn China over detention of tycoon Jimmy Lai

Published

22 mins ago

November 19, 2024

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Over 100 politicians from multiple countries condemn China over detention of tycoon Jimmy Lai

More than 100 politicians from 24 different countries, including the UK, the US and the EU, have written a joint letter condemning China over the “arbitrary detention and unfair trial” of Jimmy Lai, a tycoon and pro-democracy campaigner.

The parliamentarians, led by senior British Conservative MP Alicia Kearns, are “urgently” demanding the immediate release of the 77-year-old British citizen, who has been held in solitary confinement at a maximum security prison in Hong Kong for almost four years.

The letter – which will be embarrassing for Beijing – was made public on the eve of Mr Lai’s trial resuming and on the day after British Prime Minister Keir Starmer met Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of a G20 summit of economic powers in Brazil.

It also comes as Hong Kong jailed 45 pro-democracy activists.

The group of politicians, who also include representatives from Canada, Australia, Spain, Germany, Ukraine and France, said Mr Lai’s treatment was “inhumane”.

“He is being tried on trumped-up charges arising from his peaceful promotion of democracy, his journalism and his human rights advocacy,” they wrote in the letter, which has been seen by Sky News.

“The world is watching as the rule of law, media freedom and human rights in Hong Kong are eroded and undermined.

“We stand together in our defence of these fundamental freedoms and in our demand that Jimmy Lai be released immediately and unconditionally.”

Sir Keir raised the case of Mr Lai during remarks released at the start of his talks with Mr Xi on Monday – the first meeting between a British prime minister and the Chinese leader in six years.

The prime minister could be heard expressing concerns about reports of Mr Lai’s deteriorating health. However, he did not appear to call for his immediate release.

Ms Kearns, the MP for Rutland and Stamford in the East Midlands, said the meeting had been an opportunity to be unequivocal that the UK expects Mr Lai to be freed.

“Jimmy Lai is being inhumanely persecuted for standing up for basic human values,” she said in a statement, released alongside the letter.

“He represents the flame of freedom millions seek around the world.

“We have a duty to fight for Jimmy Lai as a British citizen, and to take a stand against the Chinese Community Party’s erosion of rule of law in Hong Kong.

“This letter represents the strength of international feeling and commitment of parliamentarians globally to securing Jimmy Lai’s immediate release and return to the UK with his family.”

Mr Lai was famously the proprietor of the Chinese-language newspaper Apple Daily in Hong Kong, which wrote scathing reports about the local authorities and the communist government in mainland China after Britain handed back the territory to Beijing in 1997.

The tabloid was a strong supporter of pro-democracy protesters who took to the streets of Hong Kong to demonstrate against the government in 2019.

But the media mogul was arrested the following year – one of the first victims of a draconian new security law imposed by the Chinese Communist Party.

His newspaper was closed after his bank accounts were frozen.

Mr Lai has since been convicted of illegal assembly and fraud. He is now on trial for sedition over articles published in Apple Daily.

World

Hong Kong jails 45 pro-democracy activists after accusing them of trying to overthrow the city’s government

Published

22 mins ago

November 19, 2024

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Hong Kong jails 45 pro-democracy activists after accusing them of trying to overthrow the city's government

Forty-five pro-democracy activists have been jailed in Hong Kong’s largest ever national security trial.

The activists sentenced with jail terms ranging from four years to ten years were accused of conspiracy to commit subversion after holding an unofficial primary election in Hong Kong in 2020.

They were arrested in 2021.

Hong Kong authorities say the defendants were trying to overthrow the territory’s government.

Democracy activist Benny Tai received the longest sentence of ten years. He became the face of the movement when thousands of protesters took to the city’s streets during the “Umbrella Movement” demonstrations.

However, Hong Kong officials accused him of being behind the plan to organise elections to select candidates.

Tai had pleaded guilty, his lawyers argued he believed his election plan was allowed under the city’s Basic Law.

Another prominent activist Joshua Wong received a sentence of more than four years.

Wong became one of the leading figures in the protests. His activism started as a 15 year old when he spearheaded a huge rally against a government plan to change the school curriculum.

Then in 2019 Hong Kong erupted in protests after the city’s government proposed a bill that would allow extradition to mainland China. It peaked in June 2019 when Amnesty International reported that up to two million people marched on the streets, paralysing parts of Hong Kong’s business district.

The extradition bill was later dropped but it had ignited a movement demanding political change and freedom to elect their own leaders in Hong Kong.

China’s central government called the protests “riots” that could not continue.

Hong Kong introduced a national security law in the aftermath of the protests.

The US has called the trial “politically motivated”.

Dozens of family and friends of the accused were waiting for the verdict outside the West Kowloon Magistrates Court.

British citizen and media mogul Jimmy Lai is due to testify on Wednesday.

Meeting on the sidelines of the G20 in Brazil, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told China’s President Xi Jinping he’s concerned about the health of Lai.

He faces charges of fraud and the 2019 protests. He has also been charged with sedition and collusion with foreign forces.

World

42,000 march on New Zealand’s parliament in support of Maori rights

Published

22 mins ago

November 19, 2024

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42,000 march on New Zealand's parliament in support of Maori rights

Tens of thousands of people have marched on New Zealand’s parliament in a protest in support of Maori rights.

The huge crowds took to the streets of Wellington in opposition to a law that could reshape the country’s founding treaty between the indigenous Maori people and the British crown.

The march was described as likely the country’s largest-ever protest in support of Maori rights.

“We’re fighting for our tamariki [children], for our mokopuna [grandchildren], so they can have what we haven’t been able to have,” Shanell Bob said as she waited for the march to begin.

“It’s different to when I was a child. We’re stronger now, our tamariki [children] are stronger now, they know who they are, they’re proud of who they are.”

The bill the protesters oppose is unpopular and unlikely to become law, but opposition to it has exploded.

It would change the meaning of the 1840 Treaty of Waitangi and prevent its principles from applying only to the Maori people – whose chiefs signed the document when New Zealand was colonised.

Considered New Zealand’s founding document, it laid out the principles guiding the relationship between the British crown and the Maori in two versions – one in English and one in Maori.

The document gave Maori the same rights and privileges as British citizens, but the English and Maori versions differed in the degree to which the chiefs ceded power over their affairs, lands and autonomy.

Over time, the colonial rulers breached both versions, with Maori language and culture dwindling – the country’s indigenous people often barred from practicing it – and tribal land was confiscated.

What’s in the controversial bill?

The bill has been drawn up by the libertarian ACT New Zealand party, a junior partner in the ruling centre-right coalition government.

It seeks to enshrine a narrower interpretation of the Treaty of Waitangi which it says discriminates against non-indigenous citizens.

Critics say it is motivated by a desire to reverse decades of policies that aimed to empower Maori people, who make up around 20% of the 5.3 million population.

In recent years, interpretation of clauses in the treaty have frequently guided legislation and policy, with rulings by the courts and a separate Maori tribunal resulting in growing Maori rights and privileges in the decades since independence in 1947.

The bill’s author, libertarian politician David Seymour, says that process of redress, following the earlier decades of breaches of the treaty, has created special treatment for the Maori – which he opposes.

‘We’re going for a walk!’

“We’re going for a walk!” one organiser said from a stage, as crowds gathered at the opposite end of New Zealand’s capital at the beginning of the protest.

Some people taking part had travelled the length of the country over the past nine days.

Diverse groups waited with Maori sovereignty flags at bus stops, which would have usually been occupied by morning commuters.

Youngsters were among those taking part as some schools said they wouldn’t register students as absent if they attended.

The city’s mayor joined in the protest as well as other politicians.

The Maori haka was performed by protesters as thousands more held signs in support as they lined the streets.

Some carried placards that bore jokes or insults aimed at politicians behind the bill, while others expressed pride in Maori identity, support for the protest or denounced the colonisation of the country.

Police said that about 42,000 people walked to the parliament’s grounds, with some spilling into the surrounding streets.

People sought the best vantage points, with some cramming themselves on to a children’s slide, as others climbed trees.

The legislation made it through its first vote last Thursday, after Mr Seymour made a political deal.

ACT’s coalition partners, the National Party and New Zealand First, agreed to support the bill through the first of its three readings, but both have said they will not support it to become law.

Mr Seymour briefly walked out on to the parliament’s forecourt to observe the protest and was booed by some.