MLB Power Rankings: Who’s No. 1 on our winter list?
Players soon will be reporting to camps, and yet, some of the top free agents still haven’t signed. So while we wait, let’s take a look ahead toward the start of the 2024 season.
Where does every team stand heading into spring training? Did the Dodgers’ offseason acquisitions push them to the No. 1 spot? Where are the reigning World Series champions in our rankings? And where do Aaron Judge and Juan Soto’s Yankees sit?
Our expert panel has combined to rank every team in baseball based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far this offseason and what we already knew from 2023. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Buster Olney, Jesse Rogers and Alden Gonzalez to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Way-too-early MLB Power Rankings
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 3
The Dodgers’ offseason has been an absolute dream. They splurged for a billion dollars on a transformative two-way player in Shohei Ohtani and a 25-year-old starting pitcher, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is coming off three consecutive MVPs in Japan. In case that wasn’t enough, they acquired one of the most prized pitchers on the trade market, Tyler Glasnow, and arguably the best corner outfielder in free agency, Teoscar Hernandez. They’re an absolute force, even more so on the heels of another 100-win season.
But it’s still fair to wonder about their rotation. Ohtani won’t pitch until 2025, Yamamoto hasn’t faced major league hitters, Glasnow is not far removed from Tommy John surgery, and Walker Buehler is coming off a second such procedure. Their other starting pitching acquisition, James Paxton, comes with his own injury concerns. — Gonzalez
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 1
With last season’s record-setting lineup returning, the Braves could have had a quiet offseason, but instead they made two of the more interesting transactions of the winter, trading for left fielder Jarred Kelenic and pitcher Chris Sale. Kelenic was once a top-10 overall prospect but never lived up to the hype in Seattle; he’s still just 24, however, and did improve last season (.253/.327/.419). Sale made 20 starts for Boston last season, his most since 2019, and fanned 125 in 102⅔ innings. He still has top-of-the-rotation stuff if he can remain healthy. — Schoenfield
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 9
Houston advanced to the American League Championship Series for the seventh consecutive season in 2023, and there are a lot of reasons to believe the Astros could do that again — maybe more so than in past seasons — behind Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman and the newly signed Josh Hader. But how dangerous Houston is may largely depend on whether Framber Valdez rediscovers his sinker, which largely abandoned him late in the year. Over his last 10 regular-season starts, he averaged 4⅔ innings and had a 4.29 ERA, and his ERA was 9.00 in the postseason. Houston’s season might come down to this: Can Framber find it? — Olney
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 5
Is a reunion with Jordan Montgomery inevitable? Don’t bet against it, as agent Scott Boras is in a good position with Rangers brass. Boras directed Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to Texas and undoubtedly helped in moving Montgomery and Max Scherzer there as well via trade last summer. As the Rangers’ RSN situation clears up, they should be able to pounce and set themselves up for a repeat run. And don’t forget, Jacob deGrom is waiting in the wings as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Texas is in a good position to contend, no matter what happens the rest of the spring. — Rogers
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 2
In Corbin Burnes, Baltimore now has the veteran ace it needed, and you’d assume that with the promise of financial backing from potential new ownership, the Orioles will add bullpen depth. The O’s won 101 games last season, yet already, this is a much more complete team than in 2024 — and now there’s no question about whether the front office and the owners will spend to plug holes at the trade deadline. Now O’s fans can wonder — and dream — about how quickly Jackson Holliday will make an impact in the big leagues. He is the easy front-runner to win AL Rookie of the Year. — Olney
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 6
Other than re-signing Aaron Nola and making a run at Yamamoto, it’s been a quiet offseason. They showed interest in relievers Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson but failed to sign either one. For now, that leaves Cristopher Sanchez as the No. 5 starter, rookie Orion Kerkering with a prominent role in the bullpen and Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache in center field (with Brandon Marsh in left). In other words, the Phillies didn’t make up any ground on the Braves. — Schoenfield
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 16
If this master plan had played out the way owner Hal Steinbrenner wanted, Yoshinobu Yamamoto would have taken the Yankees’ money and slotted in behind Gerrit Cole in the rotation. But that didn’t happen, and now the Yankees will go into the season with uncertainty about their rotation depth. Will Nestor Cortes stay healthy? Will the Yankees get what they paid for in the second year of Carlos Rodon‘s contract, at a time when he’s on double-secret probation with Yankees fans? Will Clarke Schmidt evolve? Will they make a late-winter addition? — Olney
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 4
Maybe the biggest question for the Rays going into the offseason was whether Wander Franco — who was supposed to be the face of the franchise — would be available to the team in 2024. His future status seems more uncertain than ever, because no matter when his legal situation is resolved, he still faces discipline from MLB, as well as persistent visa questions. Without Franco, can the Rays come close to matching their offensive production of 2023, when they led AL East teams in runs? — Olney
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 12
The D-backs have responded to their surprising World Series run by doubling down, adding Eduardo Rodriguez to the middle of their rotation and injecting Eugenio Suarez and Joc Pederson into the middle of their lineup. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was brought back, too, solidifying left field. Arizona has done a nice job adding the pieces that would make its roster more complete. The concerns it had heading into October about the depth in the rotation and the back end of the bullpen are not nearly as prevalent. The D-backs’ biggest question heading into 2024 is more overarching: Are they good enough to once again take down the mighty Dodgers? — Gonzalez
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 8
It really seems impossible that Toronto didn’t win a playoff game last season despite having the best rotation in the majors, but that fact really underscores how poorly the offense performed in 2023. The Jays were 16th in home runs and 14th in runs scored in the majors, surprising numbers for a team that has Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., so the mystery surrounding Toronto in 2024 is: How can a lineup that is largely the same be better? The one major change so far is the addition of Justin Turner, who effectively replaces free agent Brandon Belt. — Olney
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 11
Deep breath. With a perhaps lower-than-anticipated payroll budget, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has been up to his usual creative approach to team building. To recap: Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco, Luis Urias, Mitch Haniger, Luke Raley, Samad Taylor, Seby Zavala, Carlos Vargas and Austin Voth are in. Gone are Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez, Robbie Ray, Jarred Kelenic, Justin Topa, Anthony DeSclafani (who was only barely here), Jose Caballero, Mike Ford, Tom Murphy, Marco Gonzales and Isaiah Campbell. Is the new group better? Hard to tell. The rotation remains intact, although bullpen depth looks like an issue, and Haniger and Urias will have to bounce back from miserable seasons. — Schoenfield
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 13
Unlike the Rangers’ relationship with Boras, the Cubs haven’t lined up with his clients over the recent past. It’s a built-in roadblock to a reunion with Cody Bellinger or a match with third baseman Matt Chapman. And it’s a risky game of chicken for both sides. Bellinger might not have another big market available to him, while the Cubs won’t have much of an offense without him. The team isn’t likely to blink, believing their second-ranked farm system, according to ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, is about to explode. Will Boras blink? Perhaps he’ll be forced to accept a smaller deal — but no one knows how this will shake out. — Rogers
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 7
Is Milwaukee in transition or can it continue to contend with new manager Pat Murphy? Signing Rhys Hoskins addressed several needs, as the Brewers have had a rotation of first baseman over the past several seasons. Not anymore, though — Hoskins should provide power and leadership on a team that lost its stalwarts on the mound, first Brandon Woodruff to free agency and now Corbin Burnes in a trade with Baltimore. So one step forward on offense but one step back on the mound, where Milwaukee will struggle to replace quality innings lost. It’s the big question heading into spring: Who will step forward at the top of the rotation after Freddy Peralta? — Rogers
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 15
Cincinnati worked more quickly than a lot of teams in shoring up its pitching staff this offseason, signing four free agent pitchers and corner infielder Jeimer Candelario. If anything, the Reds might have to alleviate a logjam in the infield, but that’s a good problem to have. Their spring is about keeping their team healthy — especially a staff that lost youngsters Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft last season. There should be no excuses this year as the Reds have talent throughout the roster. They could be a sneaky pick in a wide-open division. — Rogers
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 10
No team seems more affected by the murky RSN situation than the Twins, who spent the winter more focused on managing payroll than on upgrading the roster. They lost ace Sonny Gray to free agency, traded Jorge Polanco and largely bypassed winter markets. All of that means that more than ever the Twins will need their core stars to stay on the field — and Byron Buxton (who says he intends to return to center field), Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis all have extensive injury histories. — Olney
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 17
The Padres, still shaken by the death of revolutionary owner Peter Seidler, decided to cut costs this offseason and will field a far less talented team in 2024. Juan Soto and Hader are gone. Eventually Blake Snell will be, too. They’ve replaced them with a slew of controllable starting pitchers — largely through Soto’s trade to the Yankees — and a completely replenished bullpen. But they still desperately need help in the outfield and could use another bat at first base and/or designated hitter. Another top-of-the-rotation starter would certainly help, too, but it would have to come via trade. — Gonzalez
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 19
Theo Epstein is going to go down in history as the greatest general manager ever because he conquered the Mount Everest and the K2 of World Series droughts, with the Red Sox in 2004 and then the Cubs in 2016. But it seems strange that adding him to the front office will be the biggest move of the offseason for a Red Sox team that needs help all over the place. Boston needs more offensive production, more pitching — but the front-burner question is whether manager Alex Cora signs an extension. — Olney
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 22
Are the Mets good? Are they bad? Somewhere in the middle? Probably somewhere in the middle. Their big goal was to sign Yamamoto, and once that didn’t happen, they focused on second-tier (Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Harrison Bader) and third-tier free agents (Jorge Lopez, Joey Wendle). They acquired Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor from the Brewers. They’ll need bounce-back seasons from Starling Marte and Jeff McNeil and improved results from youngsters Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty. — Schoenfield
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 25
The Cardinals filled all their holes this offseason but did quantity replace quality? Age was the theme of their pitching acquisitions, but that’s at least offset by 21-year-old shortstop Masyn Winn, who is on the verge of taking over up the middle. And don’t forget outfielder Jordan Walker, who has a year under his belt and quietly performed well for a bad team last year. But the biggest questions surround starters Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. Can they perform at the back of the rotation while Sonny Gray and Miles Mikolas hold down the front? That answer will go a long way to determining the outcome of the Cardinals season. — Rogers
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 21
If you’re looking for a sleeper pick, you could do worse than Detroit climbing in the AL Central after an improved second-half showing. The talent that the Tigers have collected in recent years is beginning to manifest. But look, Detroit is not going to climb unless there is more consistent offense; the Tigers finished 28th in runs scored in 2023. Will young players such as Riley Greene and older players such as Javy Baez generate more runs? — Olney
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 20
Everyone loves the young rotation here, as Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen all had promising rookie seasons, but Cleveland has failed to address what was the worst power-hitting outfield in the majors in decades (a combined 18 home runs). They did acquire Estevan Florial from the Yankees and he hit 28 home runs in Triple-A but with a ton of swing-and-miss (144 strikeouts in 101 games). Prospect George Valera hasn’t developed the power once expected and hit .211 in Triple-A. Where will the offense come from? — Schoenfield
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 18
The Giants ranked dead last in innings from their starting pitchers last season. They’ve responded by … signing a longtime reliever whom they’ll convert to a starting pitcher and trading for a former ace who won’t return until midseason at the earliest. Maybe Jordan Hicks is excellent out of the rotation and Robbie Ray, coming off Tommy John surgery, miraculously finds his Cy Young form over the last two months of the regular season. But there are nonetheless major questions within this rotation, not the least of which is Alex Cobb‘s return from hip surgery. The lineup also has plenty of holes, even after the Jung Hoo Lee signing. — Gonzalez
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 14
The Marlins made the playoffs in 2023 — and have essentially sat out the offseason, which isn’t quite the same as the fire sale that followed the 1997 World Series title but isn’t exactly encouraging for Marlins fans, either. New president of baseball operations Peter Bendix has done more evaluation than maneuvering, which isn’t necessarily the wrong decision here for a team that was outscored by 57 runs, has a weak farm system and will be without Sandy Alcantara while he recovers from Tommy John surgery. — Schoenfield
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 23
Other than signing Aroldis Chapman, the Pirates haven’t made many changes to their roster this winter. They might simply be hoping that this is the year their young but talented group comes through for longer than a month or two. Pittsburgh garnered headlines last spring but faded as the calendar turned to summer and the pitching staff crumbled. But former first overall pick Henry Davis got his feet wet, the young staff got needed experience and shortstop Oneil Cruz is healthy again. It’s still probably not enough to compete for six months, but the Pirates will be a thorn for some teams with manager Derek Shelton keeping his players motivated through good and bad times. — Rogers
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 24
The Angels were dealt the most devastating blow imaginable when they lost Shohei Ohtani to the crosstown rival Dodgers this offseason. They have yet to replace him as a starting pitcher and haven’t really replaced him as a hitter, either. Angels GM Perry Minasian has done a nice job deepening his bullpen but hasn’t done much else outside of adding veteran outfielder Aaron Hicks. The Angels, with a farm system that ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel recently ranked dead last heading into 2024, need plenty more help offensively and could use a top-of-the-rotation starter to boost a young staff. But unless they splurge on Cody Bellinger or Snell, it’s hard to see how they access that without significantly compromising their active roster. — Gonzalez
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 29
Hey, at least the Royals are trying to get better, although there are mixed opinions on the overall quality of the additions: Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Will Smith, Chris Stratton, Garrett Hampson, Adam Frazier, Hunter Renfroe. Lugo and Wacha are the biggest keys, two guys who were pretty good last season and will help what was a terrible rotation. If Brady Singer bounces back and Cole Ragans is indeed the real deal that he was in the final two months of 2023, it will be the best rotation for the Royals since their World Series years. — Schoenfield
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 26
The Nationals acquired Nick Senzel from the Reds and signed Joey Gallo, two moves that would have been much more exciting a few years ago. Senzel was the second overall pick in 2016 but battled injuries and put up a 77 OPS+ over five seasons with the Reds. He’ll get a chance to be the regular third baseman. Gallo has two 40-homer seasons and hit 38 as recently as 2021, but his batting averages haven’t been great the past three seasons: .199, .160 and .177. Since going to the Yankees at the trade deadline in 2021, he has produced just 1.2 WAR. — Schoenfield
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 27
The White Sox are treating the offseason like they’re coming off a 100-win year instead of the 102 they actually lost. It has translated to some interesting pickups but mostly on the margins. Erick Fedde is an example. He’s part of a rebuilt starting staff that still features Dylan Cease — but for how long? Cease is likely to begin, but not finish, the season with the team, as trade talks will heat up again come summertime. The biggest question marks this offseason are in right field and second base, positions Chicago hasn’t nailed down for several years. Newcomer Nicky Lopez will get time at second while Gavin Sheets might be the Opening Day right fielder. Rinse and repeat. The White Sox are stuck in neutral — at best. — Rogers
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 28
The Rockies’ pitching staff, which will be without both German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela for at least the first half, posted a major-league-worst 5.67 ERA last season. The front office responded with the additions of Cal Quantrill, Dakota Hudson and Anthony Molina, the latter a Rule 5 pick. That probably won’t cut it. The offense — despite playing half its games at Coors Field, of all places — was only 20th in OPS. Rather than make additions there, the Rockies will seemingly just hope for more health from Kris Bryant, more development from Ezequiel Tovar and more awesomeness from Nolan Jones. So, yeah, there are still plenty of questions about the Rockies heading into 2024. It’s much harder to find answers, frankly. — Gonzalez
Final 2023 regular-season ranking: 30
The big question for the A’s heading into 2024 is a simple one: When are they actually going to try again? They stripped their roster down to the studs while seeking a permanent home last season, and though they have since settled on Las Vegas, they still seemingly have no idea where they will play from 2025 to 2027. The A’s have lost a combined 214 games over the past two seasons, and there’s no indication they won’t lose at least another 100 more in 2024. All of their offseason additions have come on the margins. — Gonzalez
-
David Hale, ESPN Staff Writer
What’s the value of a win?
This isn’t a rhetorical question. It’s something the committee should be asking on a weekly basis. We tend to discuss win-loss records in concrete terms, then debate résumés in subjective ones, and that’s where fans, pundits and, especially, the committee run into trouble.
For example, when a reporter asked Curt Cignetti if his Indiana Hoosiers still belonged in the playoff after a blowout loss to Ohio State, he responded with a mix of befuddlement and indignation. How could a team with a 10-1 record in the Big Ten not be in the playoff?
To which any critic might rightfully argue that Indiana’s one loss — by 23 to the only SP+ top-30 team on their schedule — said more about the Hoosiers than the 10 wins did.
On the other hand, there’s Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark, who this week suggested it would be an outrage if a Group of 5 champion eclipsed his conference for the final playoff bye (which might actually be the least of his problems). He rattled off his fair share of data points — strength of schedule, margin of victory, advanced metrics — that make a clear-cut case for the Big 12. The only problem? The Big 12 champ might have as many as two more losses than the Group of 5’s representative.
Or, more succinctly: The Big Ten thinks its teams are best, because they’ve lost fewer games, while the SEC thinks its teams are best, because they’ve played a tougher schedule.
So, which is it?
Let’s apply some math.
If we use the Football Power Index’s pregame win expectation, we can get an approximate “degree of difficulty” on each win.
Indiana, to Cignetti’s point, might not have beaten great teams, but winning is still hard. The odds, by the FPI, of winning all 10 of the Hoosiers’ victories come out to about 12%.
Compare that with Texas. The Longhorns have had a particularly soft schedule, too, and like Indiana, they were overmatched in their one serious test (against Georgia). Using those same FPI odds, the chances Texas would’ve won the 10 games it has are actually pretty good — 42.4%, or a little less than a coin flip.
So by that logic, Indiana’s 10-1 record is far more impressive than Texas’ 10-1 record.
Of course, those pregame win projections also account for an important variable: team quality. Indiana’s odds were lower because the FPI innately understands that Texas is a better team, in terms of talent, than Indiana.
So what if we just go by strength of schedule?
That’s tricky, too. Indiana’s schedule strength entering last week stood at an embarrassing 106th nationally. Then the Hoosiers played Ohio State, and its strength of schedule jumped to No. 51. So did the Hoosiers’ record get any more impressive as a result? Of course not! They won their 10 games against the 106th-best schedule and lost a game against, effectively, the No. 1 toughest schedule of Week 13 (though certainly Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Alabama might quibble with that analysis).
This is where ESPN’s strength-of-record metric is helpful. It accounts for both opponent strength and the actual outcome. It suggests Texas (at No. 5) is ahead of Indiana (at No. 7). But what does that actually mean? The answer is not much. If we look at the raw numbers on strength of record, Texas’ score is only about 3% better than Indiana’s. The difference is negligible — and that’s before we remember that opponent quality is both subjective and an independent variable. In other words, Texas doesn’t control how good its opponents are. Is it the Longhorns’ fault Michigan, last season’s national champion, isn’t very good in 2024? Is it Texas’ fault that, in a conference with a dozen solid teams, the SEC office handed out a schedule that featured only two genuinely good opponents? Texas is the same team regardless of who it plays. We’d just have a better gauge of how good that team is if it had played a few more quality opponents. Strength of schedule is a measure of certainty not quality.
Or, perhaps a better example: SMU has wins against Louisville and Pitt and a close loss to BYU. Three weeks ago, BYU and Pitt were undefeated and Louisville was a top-25 team. That’s a strong résumé (not that the committee noticed). But BYU has lost two straight, Pitt has dropped three in a row and Louisville delivered one of the most inexplicably disastrous losses in recent college football history against Stanford. Suddenly SMU — through absolutely no fault of its own — has a much less impressive résumé, long after the games in question were actually played.
Let’s get back to our central question then: What is a win worth?
In nearly every other sport the answer is simple. A win is worth a win, or at least a non-loss. But in college football, it’s all debatable, which is why we have a committee.
The problem, of course, is the committee debates are secret and its explanations are often paradoxical. Rankings often seem less about a genuine appreciation for what a team has done than a speculative assumption about what it might do in a hypothetical future or alternate timeline, and this season, more than any in recent memory, that seems a fool’s errand.
AP poll:
No. 5 lost to NIU
6 has multiple losses to 3-loss teams
7 lost to Ark
8 lost to GT
13 lost to Vandy & Okla
14 lost to TxTech & Cincy
15 lost to UF & UK
17 lost to TxTech & Kansas
18 lost to Okla
19 lost to Kansas
20 lost to Auburn
21 lost to Cuse
22 lost to Minn
23 lost…— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) November 25, 2024
So here we are. After a weekend of chaos around college football — particularly in the SEC — the committee is throwing ideas against the wall and simply reporting back what stuck.
Which brings us to this week’s Anger Index.
1. The Big 12
Imagine the following scenario: Boise State and Tulane both win out, earning conference championships.
The Big 12’s champion, however, is three-loss Kansas State, three-loss Colorado or even two-loss Iowa State. All of them are currently ranked behind both Tulane (the presumed AAC champ) and Boise State (the presumed Mountain West champ), which could lead us to this eventuality: Two Group of 5 champs get in, and the Big 12 is shut out completely.
This would be a genuine catastrophe for the conference, but it’s not a major leap to envision exactly that happening.
But would it be fair?
Yormark certainly doesn’t think so.
“Based on where we sit today, I see no rationale for the Big 12’s champion not getting a first-round bye,” Yormark told Yahoo Sports. “From a strength-of-schedule standpoint, all four of our schools at the top of the standings are ranked ahead of Boise State.”
Well, sure, but the committee isn’t ranking strength of schedule, and right now, everyone but Arizona State sits behind multiple Group of 5 teams.
The problem is the committee seems incredibly concerned with the quality of losses, and in that respect, Boise State (one loss to Oregon) and Tulane (losses to Kansas State and Oklahoma) have far more explainable blemishes than Iowa State (losses to Kansas and Texas Tech), Colorado (losses to Nebraska, Kansas and Kansas State) or even Arizona State (losses to Cincinnati and Texas Tech). The great irony is Kansas State has a pretty clear-cut case to be ahead of Tulane — a 34-27 head-to-head win — but the Wildcats’ loss to Houston looks much worse than, ironically, Tulane’s loss to … Kansas State.
For more context on the committee’s willingness to engage in this circular logic, go back to 2014 when the Big 12 was also left out, despite Baylor and TCU knocking on the door.
On the other hand, seeing Coach Prime left out in favor of a team from the American might create enough hot takes to power all the holiday lights in America.
2. Every team with playoff hopes not named Clemson (9-2, No. 12)
Somehow the Tigers, left for dead after a 33-21 loss to Louisville less than a month ago, are now our first team out.
Why is that exactly?
Clemson might have the single thinnest résumé of any team in the top 25 — and worse than a handful of unranked teams, too — when you dig into the numbers.
Clemson’s best win by SP+ came against Virginia Tech, which is ranked No. 31. The Hokies, 5-6 and on the verge of missing a bowl after a loss to Virginia in Week 14, are hardly an indicator that Clemson is capable of greatness.
Clemson’s next-best win came against Pitt by four points in a game marred by controversial officiating. That’s the same Pitt currently embroiled in a four-game losing streak. Pitt is the only Power 4 team with a winning record to lose to the Tigers.
The two teams with a pulse that have played Clemson both won handily — Georgia by 31 in the opener and Louisville by 12 on Nov. 2 in Death Valley.
So, what exactly is the rationale for ranking Clemson ahead of, say, Arizona State (three wins better than Virginia Tech), BYU (two), Kansas State (three), Alabama (four), Ole Miss (three) or South Carolina (three)? Iowa State, Arizona State, Texas A&M, South Carolina, BYU and Alabama all have better strength-of-record metrics than the Tigers.
The Gamecocks will at least get a chance to prove the point on the field Saturday in the Palmetto Bowl, and given where the committee has things now, it’s entirely possible that game is a de facto play-in for the playoff.
Whether Clemson belongs in that advantageous position, however, seems a dubious proposition.
Of course, if this is all setting the stage for the committee to deviously jump Alabama over an ACC team in the final poll, then we applaud their willingness to play the long game.
Let’s do a quick blind comparison here.
Team A: 9-2, 1-1 vs. FPI top 40, losses to teams with a combined record of 18-4 by a combined 8 points
Team B: 9-2, 0-2 vs. FPI top 40, losses to teams with a combined record of 14-8 by a combined 22 points
Would it help here if we noted both of these teams are from the Group of 5, but Team A has two wins vs. Power 4 opponents and Team B has none?
Pretty easy pick, right? Team A has a clear edge. Only Team A is UNLV, which ranks No. 22 and would be at a disadvantage for a playoff bid, even if it wins out.
Team B is Tulane, which checks in at No. 17.
Heck, UNLV might even have the best case of anyone for jumping the Big 12 by virtue of wins over Kansas and Houston — two teams that have beaten BYU, Colorado, Kansas State and Iowa State.
There are 10 teams from Power 4 conferences with 8-3 records after Week 13. Eight of them are ranked. The two that aren’t are both in the ACC, outside the AP Top 25 and with ample reason to be outraged.
Team A: No. 26 strength of record, best wins vs SP+ Nos. 36 and 52, losses to SP+ Nos. 16, 41 and 55 by a total of 37 points
Team B: No. 31 strength or record, best wins vs SP+ Nos. 31 and 44, losses to SP+ Nos. 8, 13 and 61 by a total of 33 points
Pretty darned close, right? Team B, however, has the better wins and the better losses, so the only thing supporting Team A seems to be a moderately better middle of the résumé.
So, who are they?
Team B is Duke. Team A is Colorado.
Syracuse is admittedly a tougher sell because of an ugly loss to Stanford, but the Orange have wins over No. 22 UNLV and a Georgia Tech team that knocked off Miami.
And yet, neither Duke nor Syracuse is ranked.
Does it really matter? Neither would sniff the playoff anyway.
And yet, as Syracuse QB Kyle McCord told ESPN, the recognition is meaningful to a young program with a first-year coach hoping to establish an identity — a story that’s true of Duke, too.
“You want to get that recognition,” McCord said. “That’s one of our goals is to be ranked by the CFP committee.”
And it matters, too, for the other teams making a case for the playoff. Miami faces Syracuse this week. It has already defeated Duke. SMU, still criminally underappreciated by the committee, has a win over Duke, too. When “ranked wins” are a metric — fraught as it might be — it matters.
What could Notre Dame possibly have to quibble with? After all, No. 5 is as good as it gets for the Fighting Irish, who cannot, by rule, earn a first-round bye.
But here’s the problem: They’re outflanked by three Big Ten teams and narrowly ahead of perhaps the most intimidating team in the country in Georgia. And because the first four spots have to go to conference champions, we could be looking at a final ranking that looks something like this: Oregon, Georgia, ACC champion and Big 12 or Group of 5 champion get the byes, with Ohio State, Texas and Penn State next in the pecking order.
That leaves Notre Dame poised precariously on the brink of landing a home game for the playoff.
The odds are still long that the Irish would be pushed beyond the top eight, but stranger things have happened. And it really shouldn’t be a topic for debate. Notre Dame has six wins vs. opponents that are currently 7-4 or better — the most of any team in the country — and is riding a nine-game winning streak in which it outscored the opposition by an average of 33 points.
Of course, there’s still that messy incident in Week 2 when the Irish fell to Northern Illinois. If those two played 100 more times, it would surprise no one if Notre Dame won 99 of them. But there’s no ignoring what happened, and for as good as the Irish look today, they also have the worst loss of any playoff contender by a country mile.
It sure would be a shame if that loss kept them from hosting a game in northern Indiana in mid-December.
Also angry: Iowa State, Kansas State, Curt Cignetti, Greg Sankey, anyone going to the grocery store on Wednesday.
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports8 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business2 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway