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“Not worth a bucket of warm piss”. John Nance Garner’s words are the most famous assessment of the office of vice president of the United States.

“Cactus Jack” Garner’s words have often been bowdlerised to “warm spit” but there’s no denying he was in a position to know. He served Franklin Delano Roosevelt as VP for nine years up until Pearl Harbor in 1941.

Garner is alleged to have passed on his words of wisdom as an old man to Lyndon Baines Johnson when LBJ was considering the offer to be John F Kennedy’s running mate in 1960.

Johnson took the job regardless and three years later when JFK was assassinated, he lived out the other cliche about the vice presidency. He was indeed “a heartbeat away” from becoming president of the United States (POTUS).

On the day he was shot, Kennedy had phoned Garner to wish him a happy 92nd birthday. Hours later, LBJ was sworn in as 36th president.

Many US vice presidents have been deeply and loudly frustrated while in office but, in spite of Garner’s crude dismissal, the job is not worthless.

Of the 45 men who have been POTUS, a third of them, 15, previously served as vice president. Nine inherited the Oval Office when the incumbent died or resigned, including Johnson. The others, including Richard Nixon, George Bush senior and Joe Biden, were later elected president in their own right.

Beyond the common duty of representing the leader at important funerals, Britain’s occasional deputy prime ministers should not be likened to the US vice presidents. Deputy prime minister is an honorific title with no constitutional role.

None of the people who have held it officially have got into Number 10, even though there has been a rapid turnover of prime ministers taking place around them.

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Biden’s headline-making gaffes

As it happens, Garner, who died just before his 99th birthday, was the longest-surviving US president or vice president until Jimmy Carter, who is due to reach his century this October.

Compared to today’s frontrunners, Garner was a youthful 72 when he left public life. Carter was a mere 56 when he lost in 1980 to Ronald Reagan, who at 69 was then the oldest-ever president-elect.

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Aged 81 and 77 respectively, Biden and Donald Trump, the two people now vying to lead the United States until January 2029, are record-breakers.

They are set to be the oldest candidates ever to contest the presidency. As America declines into gerontocracy, there is exceptionally high interest in who might step in to replace them given the actuarial likelihood the worst – or something debilitating close to it – might happen.

Pic: AP
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Pic: AP

Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign event in Portsmouth, N.H., Wednesday, Jan. 17, 2024. Pic: AP Photo/Matt Rourke
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Pic: AP

Trump likes to play TV show-style games with his VP choice

This week on Fox News. Trump acknowledged the importance of picking a deputy “who is going to be a good president”, before teasing his interviewer, Maria Bartiromo, that he wouldn’t be making any announcement for “a little while”.

As a veteran star of The Apprentice, Trump likes to play TV show-style games with his choice.

In his first successful bid for the White House, he didn’t pick Mike Pence until 15 July 2016, ahead of the November election. To drum up excitement he could wait, as other nominees have done, until the Republican Convention which will take place in Milwaukee in mid-July.

One thing is certain: Trump will not pick Pence again, or anyone like him.

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Mike Pence on his role during Capitol riots

The right-wing governor of Indiana and former talk show host was widely derided as a faceless yes man when Trump put him on his ticket after some cosy chats.

But Pence turned out to have some backbone. The insurrectionists storming the US Capitol chanted “Hang Mike Pence!” and brought along a mock gallows. Pence later testified: “We’ll tell the truth, we’ll obey the law.”

He failed to get much support and pulled his bid for the 2024 Republican nomination before the primary contests started in January.

Tim Scott
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Tim Scott. Pic: Reuters

South Dakota governor Kristi Noem is 'fantastic', says Mr Trump. Pic : AP
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South Dakota governor Kristi Noem is ‘fantastic’, says Mr Trump. Pic: AP

Trump names two possibilities for first time

On the assumption that his various legal troubles will not prevent him from getting as far as the nomination, Trump used his interview to name two possible names for the first time.

Crucially both Senator Tim Scott and Governor Kristi Noem have already bowed down before Trump. They have not endorsed his big lie the 2020 election was stolen from him, but both claim it was not free and fair.

To Trump’s delight, Noem of South Dakota sucked up further, declining to run for the nomination herself because “I could never beat him”.

Scott did put his name forward but rushed to endorse Trump after he withdrew – further denting the chances of Nikki Haley, the only Trump challenger still standing, in next month’s primary in their home state of South Carolina.

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Vivek Ramaswamy. Pic: Reuters

Of course Trump may not end up picking either of them but he does seem to be interested in broadening his appeal by considering running mates who are not white men like himself.

Other names speculated on include ethnic minority men such as Byron Donalds, a US congressman from Florida; former Trump cabinet member and surgeon Ben Carson; and 2024 Republican contender Vivek Ramaswamy.

The list of possible female candidates includes Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders of Arkansas; Kari Lake from Arizona and Representative Elise Stefanik of New York.

Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders claimed Mr Biden was 'unfit to serve as commander-in-chief'
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Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders. Pic: Reuters

Haley is still running for the nomination and ruled herself out on the campaign trail in New Hampshire last month declaring: “I don’t want to be anybody’s vice president. That is off the table.” Otherwise, she would be best qualified to be his running mate.

Trump could also revert to type with Ohio senator and Hillbilly Elegy author J D Vance and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis heading the list of conventional choices.

Republican presidential candidate former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley pauses as she speaks at a caucus night watch party in West Des Moines, Iowa, Monday, Jan. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
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Nikki Haley. Pic: AP

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris delivers remarks on the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, during a press conference held on the sidelines of the United Nations Climate Change Conference COP28 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, December 2, 2023. REUTERS/Amr Alfiky
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US Vice President Kamala Harris. Pic: REuters

The most prominent woman certain to figure in a Trump v Biden battle is Kamala Harris. Biden is committed to keeping the first woman vice president and vice president of colour on his ticket for re-election.

She is campaigning energetically on his behalf in South Carolina and has been energised by the Trump-packed US Supreme Court’s decision overturning women’s abortion rights.

Harris is not popular with some Democratic insiders who have urged Biden to drop her. Were Biden to become unavailable as a candidate, she is unlikely to be the first preference to run in his place.

Gordon Brown and Tony Blair at the despatch box in 2007
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Gordon Brown and Tony Blair at the despatch box in 2007. Pic: PA

The UK farce of deputy prime ministers

The machinations in the US are high politics compared to the White Hall farce of deputy prime ministers.

Only seven people have been given the title, most of them recently: Clement Attlee, Michael Heseltine, John Prescott, Nick Clegg, Dominic Raab, Therese Coffey and Oliver Dowden.

Labour’s Attlee was the prime minister’s wartime deputy but Winston Churchill advised the King to appoint someone else if he should die. Subsequent, mostly Conservative, prime ministers were similarly offhand with so-called “deputy prime ministers in all but name” such as Willie Whitelaw, Damian Green and David Lidington.

There was never any doubt that Gordon Brown was Tony Blair’s real deputy, although Prescott had the title. There is still an important difference when Labour is in power. The party’s deputy leader is now directly elected. The precedent is set that they will be appointed deputy prime minister. Angela Rayner may be about to find out that being deputy prime minister is worth more than an ice-cold bucket of her favourite “Venom” cocktail.

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Donald Trump says tariffs will be cut after ‘amazing’ meeting with Xi Jinping

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Donald Trump says tariffs will be cut after 'amazing' meeting with Xi Jinping

Donald Trump has described crucial trade talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping as “amazing” – and says he will visit Beijing in April.

The leaders of the world’s two biggest economies met in South Korea as they tried to defuse growing tensions – with both countries imposing aggressive tariffs on exports since the president’s second term began.

Catch up on Trump-Xi meeting

Aboard Air Force One, Mr Trump confirmed tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the US will be reduced, which could prove much-needed relief to consumers.

It was also agreed that Beijing will work “hard” to stop fentanyl flowing into the US.

Semiconductor chips were another issue raised during their 100-minute meeting, but the president admitted certain issues weren’t discussed.

“On a scale of one to 10, the meeting with Xi was 12,” he told reporters en route back to the US.

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‘Their handshake was almost a bit awkward’

Xi a ‘tough negotiator’, says Trump

The talks conclude a whirlwind visit across Asia – with Mr Trump saying he was “too busy” to see Kim Jong Un.

However, the president said he would be willing to fly back to see the North Korean leader, with a view to discussing denuclearisation.

Mr Trump had predicted negotiations with his Chinese counterpart would last for three or four hours – but their meeting ended in less than two.

The pair shook hands before the summit, with the US president quipping: “He’s a tough negotiator – and that’s not good!”

It marks the first face-to-face meeting between both men since 2019 – back in Mr Trump’s first term.

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Pic: AP
Image:
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Pic: AP

There were signs that Beijing had extended an olive branch to Washington ahead of the talks, with confirmation China will start buying US soybeans again.

American farmers have been feeling the pinch since China stopped making purchases earlier this year – not least because the country was their biggest overseas market.

Chinese stocks reached a 10-year high early on Thursday as investors digested their meeting, with the yuan rallying to a one-year high against the US dollar.

Analysis: A fascinating power play

Sky News Asia correspondent Helen-Ann Smith – who is in Busan where the talks took place – said it was fascinating to see the power play between both world leaders.

She said: “Trump moved quickly to dominate the space – leaning in, doing all the talking, even responding very briefly to a few thrown questions.

“That didn’t draw so much as an eyebrow raise from his counterpart, who was totally inscrutable. Xi does not like or respond well to unscripted moments, Trump lives for them.”

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Will Trump really run for a third term?

On Truth Social, Mr Trump had described the summit as a gathering of the “G2” – a nod to America and China’s status as the world’s two biggest economies.

While en route to see President Xi, he also revealed that the US “Department of War” has now been ordered to start testing nuclear weapons for the first time since 1992.

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Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta results overshadowed by growing fears of AI bubble

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Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta results overshadowed by growing fears of AI bubble

Some of the world’s biggest tech giants reported quarterly earnings on Wednesday – with a mixed bag of results as fears grow that a bubble is forming in artificial intelligence.

Microsoft revealed that its spending on AI infrastructure hit almost $35bn (£26.5bn) in the three months to the end of September, a sharp rise compared with the year before.

Despite revenue jumping 18% and net income rising 12%, shares plunged by close to 4% in after-hours trading, with investors concerned about the mounting costs of sustaining the boom.

Microsoft is now a $4trn company thanks to its stake in ChatGPT maker OpenAI. AP file pic
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Microsoft is now a $4trn company thanks to its stake in ChatGPT maker OpenAI. AP file pic

Microsoft’s vice president of investor relations Jonathan Neilson said: “We continue to see demand which exceeds the capacity we have available.

“Our capital expenditure strategy remains unchanged in that we build against the demand signal we’re seeing.”

Big Tech is facing increasing pressure to show returns on the massive AI investments they’re making, against a backdrop of soaring valuations and limited evidence of productivity gains.

Microsoft became the world’s second most valuable company this week thanks to its 27% stake in OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT.

Its market capitalisation surged beyond $4trn (£3trn) at one point, but that psychologically significant threshold is now in doubt because of recent selloffs.

iStock file pic
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iStock file pic

Alphabet makes history

Last night’s results weren’t all doom and gloom – with shares in Google’s parent company surging by 6% in after-hours trading.

Alphabet has also set out aggressive spending ambitions, but placated investors thanks to an impressive set of results that surpassed analysts’ expectations.

Total revenue for the quarter stood at a staggering $102.35bn (£77bn), with the search giant’s advertising unit remaining robust despite growing competition.

But concerns linger that Alphabet’s dominance in search could be undermined by AI startups, with OpenAI recently unveiling a browser designed to rival Google Chrome.

Hargreaves Lansdown’s senior equity analyst Matt Britzman shrugged off this threat – and believes the company is “gearing up for long-term AI leadership”.

He said: “Alphabet just delivered its first-ever $100bn quarter, silencing the doubters with standout performances in both Search and Cloud.

“AI Overviews and AI Mode are clearly resonating with users, helping to ease fears that Google’s core search business is under threat from generative AI.

“With ChatGPT’s recent browser demo falling short of a game-changer, Google looks well-placed to put up a strong defence as gatekeeper to the internet.”

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Meta faces a mauling

Meta – the parent company of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp – saw its shares tumble by as much as 10% in after-hours trading.

Mark Zuckerberg’s tech empire anticipates “notably larger” capital expenses next year as it ramps up investments in AI and goes on a hiring spree for top talent.

Net income in the third quarter stood at $2.7bn (£2bn) and suffered an eye-watering $16bn (£12bn) hit because of Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill”.

Meta was late to the party on AI but has now doubled down on this still-nascent technology – setting an ambition to achieve superintelligence, a milestone where machines could theoretically outthink humans.

The social networking giant continues to benefit from its massive user base, and expects fourth-quarter revenues of up to $59bn (£44bn).

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US interest rates cut as concerns over Trump tariff inflation ease

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US interest rates cut as concerns over Trump tariff inflation ease

The US central bank has cut interest rates for the second time this year in a move consistently sought by President Trump.

Rates were brought down by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.75%-4%. Unlike the UK, the US interest rate is a range to guide lenders rather than a single percentage.

The Federal Reserve, known as the Fed, has opted for the cut despite the absence of economic announcements due to the government shutdown.

Latest employment figures were not published, as all non-essential functions of government are frozen over the inability of Republican and Democratic legislators to agree on a spending package.

The absence of these figures makes it trickier for the Fed to assess the state of the economy and meet its dual mandate to keep inflation steady and maintain maximum employment.

Data on price rises, however, showed inflation hit 3% in September, one percentage point above the Fed’s 2% target but lower than anticipated by economists.

The fact that concerns over spiralling inflation, fuelled by Mr Trump’s tariff-induced trade war, have not materialised, has facilitated the cut.

More on Interest Rates

Interest rates had been held amid warnings from Fed chair Jerome Powell that the US economy would grow less and goods would become more expensive due to hiked taxes on imports and the associated disruption in supply.

Mr Powell and the Fed in general have, as a result, been the subject of Mr Trump’s ire. The president sparked a crisis over the Fed’s independence when he moved to remove rate-setter Lisa Cook from her post at the Federal Reserve on alleged mortgage fraud grounds, which she denied.

Before the first interest rate drop of his term, in September, Mr Trump had threatened to remove Mr Powell, calling him a “stupid person” and saying he “should be ashamed”. The animosity comes despite Mr Trump appointing Mr Powell during his first presidential term.

What next?

The prospect of an interest rate cut was one of the factors boosting US and European stock markets in the days running up to the vote, with major stock indexes reaching record highs. Further increases are likely to be seen due to the decision.

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