NATO would be better off urgently rebuilding military forces capable of deterring threats with or without US support
It is clearly bad for NATO security that the potential next president of the United States has said he would encourage attacks on allies that fail to meet a core defence spending target.
But it is surely as much – or even greater – a challenge for the alliance that two-thirds of its 31 member states still have not increased the amount of national income dedicated to defence to a minimum of 2% (and experts deem that level to be woefully inadequate).
This is despite Russia’s war in Ukraine, Iran-linked conflict in the Middle East and the risk posed by an increasingly powerful China.
Donald Trump revived alarm bells across NATO capitals over the weekend when he claimed during a campaign rally that a leader “of a big country” once said to him “if we don’t pay and we’re attacked by Russia, will you protect us?”
Mr Trump, who is the frontrunner to be the Republican candidate for president, said he responded by warning: “You didn’t pay. You’re delinquent. Yes, let’s say that happened. No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want.”
If his remarks are to be taken at face value, then some comfort may be drawn from a quick glance at a map of Europe. It will show that the nations most vulnerable to any Russian invasion – the Baltic states and Poland – all comfortably pass the NATO spending test.
Yet, comments made by Mr Trump when he was commander-in-chief repeatedly raised doubts as to whether he would go to war with Moscow whichever NATO ally is targeted.
This stance fundamentally eroded the alliance’s founding principle of collective defence – an attack on one is an attack on all.
But each NATO ally that fails to spend at least 2% of GDP on defence is just as culpable of undermining the deterrent effect of Article 5.
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‘I would encourage them to do whatever they want’
Which countries are falling short?
Europe’s biggest economic power – Germany – remains one of the main offenders even though all allies pledged at a summit led by then prime minister David Cameron in Wales back in 2014 to “move towards” the 2% baseline within a decade – ie by this year.
Even nuclear-armed France is falling short, along with Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark, Portugal, Belgium, and the list goes on.
Britain should not rest easy.
It just about meets the spending pledge – though official NATO data shows the percentage spent on defence has dropped rather than risen over the past nine years from 2.14% in 2014 to an estimated 2.07% in 2023 despite the escalating threats.
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In addition, a damning report by MPs earlier this month found the UK military’s readiness for war to be “in doubt”, with limited stockpiles of weapons and ammunition, and more service personnel leaving the armed forces than being recruited.
Trump could still halt meaningful support to allies
Mr Trump’s primary criticism about NATO is over what he rightly sees as freeloading by a majority of allies that have for decades relied on the protective shield provided by the much more powerful US military rather than ensuring their own defences are credible and capable.
It was a stick he beat the alliance with during his four years as president, dangling the threat of withdrawing the US from NATO – a move that would deal a near-death blow to an organisation created after the Second World War as the cornerstone of Euro-Atlantic security.
Donald Trump and NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg in 2019. Pic: Reuters
Last December, legislation was passed in Washington that prevents a sitting president from unilaterally exiting the alliance without the approval of lawmakers.
While this means Mr Trump may not physically be able to make good on such a threat should he win a second term, he could still halt meaningful support to allies, which would be almost as damaging.
US will remain ‘strong and committed NATO ally’, alliance chief says
Responding to his latest anti-NATO outburst, Jens Stoltenberg, the veteran alliance chief, who navigated allies through the first Trump presidency, issued an unusually blunt retort.
“Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security, including that of the US, and puts American and European soldiers at increased risk,” he said. “I expect that regardless of who wins the presidential election the US will remain a strong and committed NATO ally.”
It is a sentiment all allies in Europe will be clinging to.
But they would be far better off focusing their energy on fixing the problems closer to home by urgently rebuilding credible military forces capable of deterring threats with or without US support.
America’s vaccine-sceptic health secretary has announced $500m (£375.8m) worth of cuts to their development in the country.
The US health department is cancelling contracts and pulling funding for jabs to fight viruses like COVID-19 and the flu, it was announced on Tuesday.
Robert F Kennedy Jr, known as RFK Jr, said 22 projects developing mRNA vaccines will be halted. It is the latest in a series of decisions to reduce US vaccine programmes.
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The health secretary has fired the panel that makes vaccine recommendations, reduced recommendations for COVID-19 shots, and refused to endorse vaccines despite a worsening measles outbreak.
RFK Jr claims the US will now prioritise “safer, broader vaccine strategies, like whole-virus vaccines and novel platforms that don’t collapse when viruses mutate”.
Responding to the announcement of cuts, Mike Osterholm, a University of Minnesota expert on infectious diseases and pandemic preparations, said: “I don’t think I’ve seen a more dangerous decision in public health in my 50 years in the business.”
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Dr Paul Offit, a vaccine expert at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, said RFK Jr’s move was short-sighted and that mRNA vaccines “certainly saved millions of lives”, including during the pandemic.
MRNA vaccines work by delivering a snippet of genetic code into the body that triggers an immune response, rather than introducing a real version of the virus.
According to the UK Health Security Agency, the “leading advantage of mRNA vaccines is that they can be designed and produced more quickly than traditional vaccines”.
Moderna, which was studying a combo mRNA shot that can tackle COVID and flu for the US health department, previously said it believed mRNA could speed up production of flu jabs compared with traditional vaccines.
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A COVID-19 vaccine during the pandemic. File pic: PA
Scientists are also exploring how mRNA could be used in cancer immunotherapies and in other illnesses.
At the White House earlier this year, billionaire tech entrepreneur Larry Ellison praised mRNA for its potential to treat cancer.
RFK Jr touts ‘effective’ alternative
The health department said the abandoned mRNA projects signal a “shift in vaccine development priorities.”
“Let me be absolutely clear, HHS supports safe, effective vaccines for every American who wants them,” Mr Kennedy said in a statement.
Later, he said work is underway on an alternative – a “universal vaccine” that mimics “natural immunity”.
“It could be effective – we believe it’s going to be effective – against not only coronaviruses, but also flu,” he said.
The US House Oversight Committee has issued subpoenas for depositions with former president Bill Clinton and former secretary of state Hillary Clinton relating to the sex trafficking investigation into Jeffrey Epstein.
The Republican-controlled committee also subpoenaed the Justice Department for files relating to the paedophile financier, as well as eight former top law enforcement officials.
Donald Trump has denied prior knowledge of Epstein‘s crimes, claiming he ended their relationship a long time ago.
Mr Trump and Mr Epstein at a party together in 1992. Pic: NBC News
The US president has repeatedly tried to draw a line under the Justice Department’s decision not to release a full accounting of the investigation, but politicians from both major political parties, as well as many in Mr Trump’s political base, have refused to drop their interest in the Epstein files.
Epstein died in a New York jail cell in 2019 awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges, and since then, conspiracy theories have swirled about what information investigators gathered on him and who else may have been involved in his crimes.
Republicans on the House Oversight Committee initiated the subpoenas for the Clintons last month, as well as demanding all communications between former president Joe Biden’s Democrat administration and the Justice Department about Epstein.
The committee previously issued a subpoena for an interview with Epstein’s former girlfriend, Ghislaine Maxwell, who had been serving a prison sentence in Florida for luring teenage girls to be sexually abused by Epstein. She was recently transferred to another facility in Texas.
Mr Clinton was among those acquainted with Epstein before the criminal investigation against him in Florida became public two decades ago. He has never been accused of wrongdoing by any of the women who say Epstein abused them.
Mr Clinton previously said, through a spokesperson, that while he travelled on Epstein’s jet, he never visited his homes and had no knowledge of his crimes.
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The subpoenas give the Justice Department until 19 August to hand over the requested records.
The committee is also asking the former officials to appear for depositions throughout August, September and October, concluding with Hillary Clinton on 9 October and Bill Clinton on 14 October.
Although several former presidents, including Mr Trump, have been issued congressional subpoenas, none has ever appeared before members under compulsion.
Last month, Mr Trump instructed Attorney General Pam Bondi to release information presented to the grand jury that indicted Maxwell for helping Epstein sexually abuse teenage girls.
Sean “Diddy” Combs has been in contact with Donald Trump about a pardon, a source close to the rapper’s legal team has told Sky News’ US partner network NBC News.
A White House spokesperson said it “will not comment on the existence or nonexistence of any clemency request”.
On Tuesday, the rapper was denied bail ahead of his sentencing in October, when he could face up to 20 years in prison after he was convicted of prostitution-related offences.
The sentence will likely be much shorter than that, however.
In July, he was found guilty of two counts of transportation for prostitution – but cleared of more serious charges of racketeering conspiracy and sex-trafficking, which carried potential life sentences.
During an interview with news channel Newsmax last Friday, Mr Trump said “they have talked to me about Sean” but did not announce any decision.
Read more:
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Combs reacts after the verdicts are read out in court. File pic: Reuters
The president seemed to cast doubt that he would grant a pardon, however.
“You know, I was very friendly with him. I got along with him great. And seemed like a nice guy, I didn’t know him well,” Trump said. “But when I ran for office, he was very hostile.”
“I don’t know,” Trump said. “It makes it more – I’m being honest, it makes it more difficult to do.”
Trump was then asked, “more likely a ‘no’ for Combs?”
Trump responded: “I would say so.”
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How the Diddy trial unfolded
Combs, who co-founded Bad Boy Records and launched the career of the late Notorious BIG, was for decades a huge figure in pop culture, as well as a Grammy-winning hip-hop artist and business entrepreneur, who presided over an empire ranging from fashion to reality TV.
Now, as well as the criminal conviction, he is also facing several civil lawsuits.
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