Global defence spending on everything from ammunition to nuclear weapons has jumped 9% to a record $2.2trn (£1.7trn) from a year earlier and will rise again in 2024 as the world enters “a more dangerous period”, new analysis has found.
Russia – locked in a war with Ukraine – allocates more than 30% of annual government expenditure to its armed forces, according to the assessment on the balance of global military power by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) published on Tuesday.
It said the Russian armed forces have lost more than 3,000 main battle tanks in Ukraine – roughly as many as they had ready to deploy before the full-scale invasion two years ago. Moscow is now drawing on stored kit to replenish losses, “trading quality for quantity”.
The rise in spending has also been driven by China as well as the NATO alliance.
Even excluding the United States, which has the world’s most powerful military, NATO allies have regrown their combined defence spending by almost a third in the past decade, a move that was prompted by Vladimir Putin’s initial invasion of Crimea in 2014, the analysis said.
But it warned that “glaring gaps” in capability remained following decades of defence cuts. Donald Trump caused an uproar over the weekend when he criticised a majority of European NATO allies and Canada over their failure to meet a minimum goal to spend at least 2% of GDP on defence, saying he would urge attacks on member states that did not invest sufficiently in their armed forces.
The IISS thinktank said that the US and Europe are once again ramping up production of missiles and ammunition, with a renewed focus on artillery and air defence systems – areas that had been neglected since the end of the Cold War, with stockpiles and industrial capacity hollowed out.
Nations, including China and Russia, are also focusing on new technology like hypersonic missiles – travelling more than five times faster than the speed of sound and very difficult to intercept – as well as unmanned weapons such as uncrewed attack boats, used very effectively by Ukraine against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, IISS said.
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“Nuclear weapons are also very much back on the agenda, with China adding missile silos and the United States modernising warheads and delivery systems,” the thinktank said in a statement released ahead of the publication of the annual Military Balance.
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2:26
UK’s ‘warfighting readiness’ in doubt
It is the 65th year of the report, which tracks the state of each military in the world.
The thinktank said the world “has entered a more dangerous period in the last 12 months”.
This was against a backdrop of the ongoing war in Ukraine, conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East and growing tensions between the West and China.
The thinktank said the Chinese Communist Party was demonstrating a growing capacity to be able to project power – a move that is driving increased cooperation between the West and other militaries in Asia to offset the threat.
It also highlighted Iran‘s expanding influence such as the supply of Iranian anti-ship missiles to Houthi rebels in Yemen that are attacking shipping in the Red Sea as well as the sale of Iranian suicide drones to Russia, which are being used to devastating effect in Ukraine.
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“Global defence spending is up 9% from the previous year and poised to rise further in 2024, based on already announced spending commitments,” the IISS said.
Bastian Giegerich, director-general and chief executive of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “The IISS Military Balance is published at an important time when the rules-based order is being increasingly questioned.
“While Western defence spending is rising and plans to revamp equipment are ongoing, we reflect on the challenges including those set by Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, China’s military modernisation and events in the Middle East.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accused US envoy Steve Witkoff of “spreading Russian narratives” about the Ukraine war – as he said a much-anticipated minerals deal was moving closer.
His comments came as Mr Witkoff was in Paris for talks with Ukrainian and European officials.
“This peace deal is about these so-called five territories, but there’s so much more to it,” he said.
He appeared to be referencing occupied Crimea and the four regions annexed in sham referendums in 2022: Kherson, Luhansk, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia.
The votes were widely condemned and dismissed by the West – and Russia still does not fully control these regions – but Mr Witkoff has been accused of parroting Moscow’s line.
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Image: Mr Witkoff met the Russian president in St Petersburg on Friday. Pic: Sputnik/AP
Mr Zelenskyy, speaking at a news conference, also said a “memorandum of intent” on a minerals deal with the US could be signed online on Thursday.
However, speaking at the White House later – where he was hosting the Italian prime minister, US President Donald Trump said it was likely to be next week.
The deal was expected to be done weeks ago but was derailed by the Ukrainian leader’s falling out at the White House.
President Trump wants to share in profits from Ukraine’s natural resources in what he says is repayment for military aid. It’s hoped America having a stake in the country could also help maintain any truce.
In his media conference, Mr Zelenskyy also claimed he had evidence of China helping Russia with artillery.
“We believe that Chinese representatives are engaged in the production of some weapons on the territory of Russia,” the Ukrainian leader said.
He did not specify whether he meant artillery systems or shells.
It comes after Ukraine said recently that it had captured two Chinese citizens fighting in the east of the country.
US efforts to broker a ceasefire have so far failed to provide a breakthrough, with critics accusing Russia of stalling and not really wanting peace.
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1:30
‘I don’t hold Zelenskyy responsible’
President Trump was asked on Thursday how long Mr Putin had to respond to his ceasefire proposal before facing either tariffs or more sanctions.
“We’re going to be hearing from them this week, very shortly, actually,” he told reporters.
He also said that while he does not hold President Zelenskyy responsible for the war, he is “not a big fan”.
“I’m not happy with him, and I’m not happy with anybody involved,” he said.
“I’m not blaming him, but what I am saying is that I wouldn’t say he’s done the greatest job. Okay? I’m not a big fan.”
Three killed in drone attack
US envoy Mr Witkoff was joined in Paris earlier by US secretary of state Marco Rubio.
The men held talks with French, British and German representatives – the so-called “coalition of the willing” who could provide security guarantees in the event of a ceasefire.
Ukraine’s presidential chief of staff, foreign minister and defence minister were also there and a follow-up is scheduled for next week in London.
Image: Talks took place at the Elysee Palace in Paris. Pic: Reuters
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3:21
Will talks bring Ukraine ceasefire?
While a total ceasefire has proved elusive, a 30-day moratorium on striking energy infrastructure targets was previously agreed.
However, both sides have accused each other of breaking the agreement.
Russian government spokeswoman Maria Zakharova claimed on Thursday that Ukraine had breached it 80 times.
Image: Three were killed and dozens hurt in drone strikes on Dnipro. Pic: Reuters
Image: Pic: Reuters
President Zelenskyy, meanwhile, said Russian energy attacks had decreased but that it was attacking civilian infrastructures instead.
Three people, including a child, were killed overnight in a drone attack on Ukraine’s southeastern city of Dnipro, according to officials, with 30 wounded.
Local authorities said widespread damage was caused to civilian infrastructure, including an educational institution, residential buildings, a gym and a dormitory.
The White House has hit out at an “appalling” attempt by a Democratic senator to return a father wrongly deported to El Salvador.
Chris Van Hollen arrived in El Salvador on Wednesday to speak to the country’s leaders about Kilmar Abrego Garcia, who was removed from the US by the Trump administration in March despite an immigration court order preventing his deportation.
Washington acknowledged Mr Garcia was deported due to an “administrative error”.
The US Supreme Court has called on the administration to facilitate his return, upholding a court order by Judge Paula Xinis, but Trump officials have claimed Mr Garcia has ties to the MS-13 gang.
Mr Garcia’s lawyers have argued there is no evidence of this.
Speaking about Mr Van Hollen’s trip to El Salvador, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said the Democrats “still refuse to accept the will of the American people”.
She alleged Mr Garcia was an “illegal alien MS-13 terrorist” and claimed his wife petitioned for court protection against him after alleged incidents of domestic violence.
Image: White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt.
Pic: AP/Jose Luis Magana
After outlining the allegations against Mr Garcia, she went on: “All of that is not enough to stop the Democrat Party from their lies.
“The number one issue they are focused on right now is bringing back this illegal alien terrorist to America.
“It’s appalling and sad that Senator Van Hollen and the Democrats are plotting his trip to El Salvador today, are incapable of having any shred of common sense or empathy for their own constituents and our citizens.”
After making a statement, Ms Leavitt introduced Patty Morin, who described graphic details of her daughter’s murder by an immigrant from El Salvador.
Rachel Morin was raped and murdered by Victor Martinez-Hernandez along a popular hiking trail northeast of Baltimore.
Afterwards, Ms Leavitt left without taking any questions from reporters.
Image: Kilmar Abrego Garcia. Pic: CASA/AP
Senator travels to El Salvador
Mr Van Hollen met with the El Salvador vice president during his trip to the Central American country.
But he did not meet with President Nayib Bukele, who publicly met with Donald Trump in the Oval Office this week, nor did he meet Mr Garcia himself.
Image: US senator Chris Van Hollen has been in El Salvador.
Pic: Reuters/Jose Cabezas
In a post on X, he said he would continue to fight for Mr Garcia’s return.
During Mr Bukele’s trip to the White House earlier this week, he said he would not return Mr Garcia, likening it to smuggling “a terrorist into the United States”.
Along with Mr Garcia, the Trump administration has deported hundreds of people, mostly Venezuelans, who it claims are gang members without presenting evidence and without a trial.
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2:53
‘I’m talking about violent people’
Judge’s contempt warning
It comes hours after a US federal judge warned that he could hold the Trump administration in criminal contempt for violating his orders to turn around planes carrying deportees to El Salvador.
The comments are an escalation in a row which began last month when US district judge James E Boasberg issued an order temporarily blocking the deportations.
However, lawyers told him there were already two planes with immigrants in the air – one headed for El Salvador, the other for Honduras.
Mr Boasberg verbally ordered the planes to be turned around, but the directive was not included in his written order. The Trump administration then denied refusing to comply.
Charges could be brought forward by the Justice Department, NBC News, Sky’s US partner network, reported.
However, that could create an uncomfortable situation for the department, which is headed by the attorney general – a position appointed by the president.
If the executive-led Justice Department refused to prosecute the matter, Judge Boasberg said he would appoint another attorney to prosecute the contempt.
The judge wrote: “The Constitution does not tolerate wilful disobedience of judicial orders – especially by officials of a coordinate branch who have sworn an oath to uphold it.”
He gave the government a 23 April deadline.
White House director of communications Steven Cheung said the administration would seek “immediate appellate relief” – a review of a decision within a lower court before the case has been resolved.
Israel’s troops will remain in “security zones” in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria indefinitely, according to the country’s defence minister.
Israeli forces have taken over more than half of the Gaza Strip in recent weeks in a renewed campaign to pressure the territory’s rulers Hamas to free hostages after a ceasefire ended last month.
Israel has also refused to withdraw from some areas in Lebanon following a truce with Hezbollah last year, and it seized a buffer zone in southern Syria after President Assad’s regime was overthrown last December.
Israeli defence minister Israel Katz said his forces “will remain in the security zones as a buffer between the enemy and [Israeli] communities in any temporary or permanent situation in Gaza – as in Lebanon and Syria”.
He said that “unlike in the past” the military was “not evacuating areas that have been cleared and seized”.
His comments could further complicate talks with Hamas over a ceasefire and the release of hostages.
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3:36
Gazans struggle to find bodies under rubble
On Wednesday, health officials said Israeli strikes in Gaza killed 22 people, including a girl who was less than a year old.
Fifty-nine hostages are still inside Gaza, 24 of whom are believed to be alive, after dozens of others were previously released in ceasefire agreements or other deals.
Image: Israeli defence minister Israel Katz. Pic: AP
Meanwhile, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said Israel’s continued presence in some areas in Lebanon was “hindering” the Lebanese army’s full deployment as required by the ceasefire negotiated with Israel.
The war left over 4,000 people dead, many of them civilians.
Two Israeli drone strikes in southern Lebanon on Wednesday killed two people, the health ministry said. The United Nations said Israeli strikes in Lebanon have killed more than 70 civilians since the ceasefire took effect in November.
Israel has said it must keep control of some areas to prevent a repeat of the Hamas attack that triggered the latest conflict in Gaza.
The war began when militants attacked southern Israel on 7 October 2023, killing 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapping about 250.
Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed more than 51,000 people, according to Gaza’s health ministry.
The figure includes more than 1,600 people killed since a ceasefire ended and Israel resumed its offensive last month to pressure Hamas to accept changes to the agreement.
The health ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its total count but said that more than half of the fatalities are women and children.