Trump spouts off about Russia and NATO: On Saturday, at a campaign rally in South Carolina, former Republican President Donald Trump recalled a hypothetical that he said he’d entertained with another head of state.
If that country had not paid up for its defense, and was attacked by Russia, Would NATO still protect it? the head of state purportedly asked Trump.
“‘You didn’t pay? You’re delinquent?'” Trump recounted saying. ‘”No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay. You gotta pay your bills.'”
Trump seems “gripped by the stubbornly ignorant belief, even after four years in office, that NATO is some sort of protection racket, in which our European allies come to Washington like quivering shopkeepers and make an offering to the local mob boss from their weekly receipts,” writes The Atlantic’s Tom Nichols.
“NATO funding doesn’t work that way, of course, and while European leaders no doubt had their arguments in private with Trump while he was president, it is highly unlikely that the leader of a major power ‘stood up’as if in some sort of audience with Trumpto ask him if he’d stop a Russian invasion of a country ‘delinquent’ in its accounts.”
Nichols’ takethat it’s unlikely that this conversation happened at all, or at least that it went the way Trump told itseems correct. But the most notable takeaway here isn’t whether his anecdote really happened; it’s that Trump felt comfortable signaling his disloyalty to NATO, and that he did it this way. A careful, well-informed critique of NATO this was not.
Movement in Trump cases: It’s going to be a big week for Donald Trump. On Thursday, Judge Juan M. Merchan is likely to schedule the criminal trial for Trump’s alleged hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels, meaning the former president’s team will now know exactly how it may interfere with their campaign schedule. (Merchan may dismiss the case altogether.)
Then, on Friday, a ruling is expected in Trump’s civil fraud case, issued by Judge Arthur F. Engoron. The civil fraud case deals with whether Trump misrepresented his net worth to banks and insurers.
Also on Thursday, “the Georgia prosecutor who accused Mr. Trump of conspiring to overturn the 2020 election will face a hearing about her romantic relationship with a lawyer she hired to work on that case,” reports The New York Times. Trump may attend that hearing as well.
Scenes from New York:This past September, Local Law 18 went into effect, which in essence banned most short-term rental Airbnbs from being able to operate legally within the five boroughs. (I covered Local Law 18 here.) This has resulted in massive demand growth for listings in Jersey City and Newarkless convenient for tourists, unless they are visiting to avail themselves of Portuguese food. It has also been a huge handout to NEw York City’s hotel lobby, which supported the 2022 passage of the law.
A November report issued by the group RHOAR, Restore Homeowner Autonomy & Rights, found that more than 90 percent of former Airbnb host respondents are now struggling with paying mortgages and utility bills, which they attribute to the dried-up rental income and vacant rooms. Almost a third reported that they’ve been delaying important repairs because they cannot afford them right now.
The New York Timeshas found that the city’s Office of Special Enforcement, the permitting authority that can allow people to continue renting out rooms in their homes, is allowing very few short-term rentals: “Of the 5,661 applications received by early February, 1,387 have been granted and 955 have been denied.” QUICK HITS The SuperPAC backing Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ran an actually great Super Bowl ad, basically a reinvention of his uncle’s 1960 presidential campaign ad. If you look at Google search traffic, it seems to have workedunless people find anything offputtingly bizarre when they google him. “In aNew York Times/Siena poll of six battleground states last fall, more than 70 percent of voters agreed with a statement that Mr. Biden, 81, is too old to be an effective president, though voters 65 and over were slightly less likely to judge him as too old,” reportsThe New York Times. Yes: You don't demonstrate your seriousness that Trump is an existential threat to democracy by going through the motions to renominate an 81-year-old with a 38% approval rating who 75% of voters think is too old without giving anyone a choice because that's just how things are done.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 11, 2024
Naturally, the Biden campaign has joined TikTok to try to curry favor with the young. Some commercial ships that must go through the Red Sea are making their crews all-Muslim to try to protect against Houthi attacks. More than you ever needed to know about death masks, from the BBC. “In Alberta, kids under the age of 16 will no longer be eligible to receive puberty blockers or cross-sex hormones, while sex-change surgeries will be limited to those 18 and older,” reports theCalgary Herald. Other Super Bowl ad takes: “So we are going to make a Super Bowl commercial about Volkswagen’s history” pic.twitter.com/jTNam817R9
— Kyle Martin (@kmartceo) February 12, 2024
And President Joe Biden released a strange video about how snack portions have gotten smaller while prices have stayed the same: I did not predict leaning into the aging issue with an Andy-Rooney-on-quaaludes rant about how chip bags used to be fuller. https://t.co/XnHhLLFZoD
— Mary Katharine Ham (@mkhammer) February 11, 2024
Ex-Tory chairman Sir Jake Berry has defected to Reform, in the latest blow to the Conservatives.
The former MP for Rossendale and Darwen, who served as Northern Powerhouse minister under Boris Johnson and lost his seat last year, said he had defected to Nigel Farage’s party because the Tories had “lost their way”.
Reform UK confirmed the defection to Sky News, which was first broken by The Sun.
Speaking to the paper, Sir Jake said Mr Farage’s party was the “last chance to pull Britain back from terminal decline”.
“Our streets are completely lawless,” he said.
“Migration is out of control. Taxes are going through the roof.
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“And day after day, I hear from people in my community and beyond who say the same thing: ‘This isn’t the Britain I grew up in’.”
Sir Jake accused his former party of “abandoning the British people” but said he was not “giving up”.
“I’m staying. And I’m fighting.
“Fighting for the Britain I want my kids, and one day, my grandkids, to grow up in.”
Mr Farage welcomed what he said was “a very brave decision” by Sir Jake.
“His admission that the Conservative government he was part of broke the country is unprecedented and principled,” he added.
A Conservative Party spokesman said: “Reform support increasing the benefits bill by removing the two-child cap, and nationalising British industry. By contrast the Conservatives, under new leadership, will keep making the case for sound money, lower taxes and bringing the welfare bill under control.
“We wish Jake well in his new high spend, high tax party.”
Sir Jake’s defection to Reform comes just days after former Conservative cabinet minister David Jones joined Reform UK, which continues to lead in the polls.
Image: Former Welsh secretary David Jones (R) alongside Tory MP Mark Francois. Pic: PA
Mr Jones, who was MP for Clwyd West from 2005 until standing down in 2024, said he had quit the Tories after “more than 50 years of continuous membership”.
Sir Jake was the MP Rossendale and Darwen in Lancashire between 2010 and 2024, when he was defeated by Labour’s Andy MacNae.
He held several ministerial posts including in the Department for Housing, Communities and Local Government, Energy and Climate Change and the Cabinet Office.
Image: Nigel Farage after winning the Runcorn and Helsby by-election.
Pic: Reuters
He was also chairman of the Conservative Party from September to October 2022, under Liz Truss.
Announcing his defection – which comes a year after the Tories suffered their worst ever election defeat – Sir Jake said “Britain was broken” and “the Conservative governments I was part of share the blame”.
“We now have a tax system that punishes hard work and ambition,” he said.
“Just this week, we saw record numbers of our brightest and best people leaving Britain because they can’t see a future here. At the same time, our benefits system is pulling in the world’s poor with no plan for integration and no control over who comes in.
“If you were deliberately trying to wreck the country, you’d be hard-pressed to do a better job than the last two decades of Labour and Tory rule.
“Millions of people, just like me, want a country they can be proud of again. The only way we get that is with Reform in government. That’s why I’ve resigned from the Conservative Party. I’m now backing Reform UK and working to make them the next party of government.”
He added: “And with Nigel Farage leading Reform, we’ve got someone the country can actually trust. He doesn’t change his views to fit the mood of the day. And people respect that. So do I. That’s why I believe he should be our next prime minister.”
A Labour Party spokesperson said: “Not content with taking advice from Liz Truss, Nigel Farage has now tempted her Tory Party chairman into his ranks.
“It’s clear Farage wants Liz Truss’s reckless economics, which crashed our economy and sent mortgages spiralling, to be Reform’s blueprint for Britain. It’s a recipe for disaster and working people would be left paying the price.”
Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron have agreed the need for a “new deterrent” to deter small boats crossings in the Channel, Downing Street has said.
The prime minister met Mr Macron this afternoon as part of the French president’s state visit to the UK, which began on Tuesday.
High up the agenda for the two leaders is the need to tackle small boat crossings in the Channel, which Mr Macron said yesterday was a “burden” for both the UK and France.
The small boats crisis is a pressing issue for the prime minister, given that more than 20,000 migrants crossed the English Channel to the UK in the first six months of this year – a rise of almost 50% on the number crossing in 2024.
Sir Keir is hoping he can reach a deal for a one-in one-out return treaty with France, ahead of the UK-France summit on Thursday, which will involve ministerial teams from both nations.
The deal would see those crossing the Channel illegally sent back to France in exchange for Britain taking in any asylum seeker with a family connection in the UK.
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However, it is understood the deal is still in the balance, with some EU countries unhappy about France and the UK agreeing on a bilateral deal.
French newspaper Le Monde reports that up to 50 small boat migrants could be sent back to France each week, starting from August, as part of an agreement between Sir Keir and Mr Macron.
A statement from Downing Street said: “The prime minister met the French President Emmanuel Macron in Downing Street this afternoon.
“They reflected on the state visit of the president so far, agreeing that it had been an important representation of the deep ties between our two countries.
“Moving on to discuss joint working, they shared their desire to deepen our partnership further – from joint leadership in support of Ukraine to strengthening our defence collaboration and increasing bilateral trade and investment.”
It added: “The leaders agreed tackling the threat of irregular migration and small boat crossings is a shared priority that requires shared solutions.
“The prime minister spoke of his government’s toughening of the system in the past year to ensure rules are respected and enforced, including a massive surge in illegal working arrests to end the false promise of jobs that are used to sell spaces on boats.
“The two leaders agreed on the need to go further and make progress on new and innovative solutions, including a new deterrent to break the business model of these gangs.”
Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, seized on the statement to criticise Labour for scrapping the Conservatives’ Rwanda plan, which the Tories claim would have sent asylum seekers “entering the UK illegally” to Rwanda.
He said in an online post: “We had a deterrent ready to go, where every single illegal immigrant arriving over the Channel would be sent to Rwanda.
“But Starmer cancelled this before it had a chance to start.
“Now, a year later, he’s realised he made a massive mistake. That’s why numbers have surged and this year so far has been the worst in history for illegal channel crossings.
“Starmer is weak and incompetent and he’s lost control of our borders.”
In a bid to thwart further opposition to the bill following last week’s climbdown, the government said it would not try to introduce any more reforms to personal independence payments (PIP) until a review by work and pensions minister Sir Stephen Timms on the assessment process has concluded.
Sir Stephen said he wanted to finish his review by next autumn, but that the government would not agree to complete the review in 12 months as some MPs wanted.
Marie Tidball, the Labour MP who had called for the 12-month limit, later signalled she was happy with the government’s compromise.
Ministers also agreed to her calls to have a majority of the taskforce looking at PIP to be disabled or from disability organisations, and for the outcome of the review to come before any PIP changes. It will also be voted on by MPs.
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A total of 47 Labour MPs have rebelled against the government to vote against its welfare reforms.
Mother of the House Diane Abbott, former minister Dawn Butler, Andy McDonald, Stella Creasy and Jonathan Brash were among those in the “no” lobby.
Meanwhile, MPs rejected a separate amendment by Green MP Sian Berry, which called for the basic rate of universal credit to increase by 4.8% above inflation each year until 2030.
A total of 39 Labour MPs voted for scrapping the clauses that halved Universal Credit for new claimants – the only major cut left in the bill after the government made its concessions.
The passing of the bill will come as a relief to Sir Keir Starmer, who last week was forced into a humiliating climbdown over his flagship welfare package in the face of significant opposition from his own MPs.
Prior to the vote last Tuesday, the government offered significant concessions including exempting existing personal independence payment claimants (PIP) from stricter new criteria and only freezing and cutting the universal credit health top-up for new applications.
As the vote last week unfolded, it offered further confessions amid concerns the bill could be voted down – notably, that changes in eligibility for PIP would not take place until a review he is carrying out into the benefit is published in autumn 2026.
They ended up voting for only one part of the plan: a cut to Universal Credit (UC) sickness benefits for new claimants from £97 a week to £50 from 2026/7.
A total of 49 Labour MPs voted against the bill – the largest rebellion in a prime minister’s first year in office since 47 MPs voted against Tony Blair’s Lone Parent benefit in 1997, according to Professor Phil Cowley from Queen Mary University.