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A UK recession is “in the balance” but there are signs growth is starting to pick up, the governor of the Bank of England has said.

Andrew Bailey made the comments as he hailed Wednesday’s inflation data – which revealed it remained at 4% in January – as “quite encouraging” amid the Bank’s ongoing attempts to bring the rate down to its target of 2%.

“That’s good news, as far as I can tell,” he told the House of Lords economic affairs committee on Wednesday afternoon.

However, the governor added the figure did not fundamentally alter the Bank’s outlook on potentially cutting interest rates in the months ahead.

“I think it leaves us broadly where we thought we were going to be. But that’s obviously encouraging relative to where we could have been,” Mr Bailey said.

The UK’s central bank had forecast inflation would rise slightly to 4.1%, while economists polled by Reuters expected it to creep up to 4.2%.

The rate of inflation has been on a downward trend in recent months – except for a surprise rise in December.

The Bank has held interest rates at 5.25% four times in a row and Mr Bailey previously told Sky News that he expects its next move to be a cut. However, the Bank has yet to decide when this will be.

Economy is flatlining – tackling unproductivity is our way out



Arthi Nachiappan

Technology correspondent

The UK economy shrunk by 0.1% between July and September last year and it is expected to have shrunk by around the same amount between October and December last year.

If this is the case, then the UK will have met the criteria of a recession, which is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

There are various reasons for this. The economy has struggled to gain any momentum since the pandemic after persistent inflation eroded the value of earnings and squeezed spending.

Looking more closely at the end of last year, we also had storms that kept shoppers at home and strike action that reduced the number of days worked.

The important thing to note is that there is a lot of disagreement among economists about whether this way of measuring a recession really tells us very much.

We could be entering a recession in name but it won’t necessarily change anything in terms of people’s lived experience as we continue to face a crisis in living costs.

Unemployment is close to a historic low at 3.8%, which is less than half the level we had during the recession that followed the 2008 financial crisis

So, rather than a huge contraction, the best way to think about this is that the economy is flatlining and it needs a boost.

As to where this boost comes from, we have had meagre growth in productivity since the financial crisis, and making improvements here is the real source of long term improvements in living standards.

It comes ahead of new growth figures on Thursday morning – which could show that the UK has tipped into a recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) previously estimated that gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.1% in the three months from July to September.

Economists polled by Reuters believe Thursday’s figures will show it again shrank by 0.1% in the fourth quarter.

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Mr Bailey told the committee it was “in the balance” whether the UK would enter a “technical recession” on Thursday.

“Last year, overall GDP was basically flat… It wouldn’t take much to tip it either way, frankly,” he added.

However, the governor expressed some optimism for the year ahead.

“Going forward, and I think this is in some ways more significant, we are now seeing some signs of the beginning of a pick-up in some of the surveys, for instance… we’ve got a modest pick-up this year which continues thereafter,” he told the committee.

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HSBC ‘being attacked all the time’ by online criminals – as boss ‘kept awake at night’ by cyber threat

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HSBC 'being attacked all the time' by online criminals - as boss 'kept awake at night' by cyber threat

The boss of one of the UK’s biggest banks says it is being attacked “all the time” by online criminals and he is kept up at night by cyber threats.

“It does keep me awake,” HSBC UK chief executive Ian Stuart told the Treasury Committee of MPs.

“Because we can be attacked and we are being attacked all the time.”

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Mr Stuart said banks were spending “enormous” sums of hundreds of millions of pounds on IT systems – the biggest expense in their businesses.

“Cybersecurity is now very much at the top of our agenda,” he added.

Ian Stuart, chief executive of HSBC UK, appearing before the Treasury Committee. Pic: PA
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Ian Stuart, chief executive of HSBC UK, appearing before the Treasury Committee. Pic: PA

Concerns were also highlighted by Lloyds Bank chief executive Charlie Nunn, who said financial fraud will get worse if banks cannot intervene to prevent it and social media and telecoms companies are not incentivised to halt it.

Mr Nunn said the UK “has become the home of fraud”, adding that the number of victims is “pretty disturbing” and “individual cases are harrowing”.

Major high street businesses, including M&S and the Co-op, have been hit by cyber attacks in recent weeks and had their operations impacted.

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Who is behind M&S cyberattack?

Cybersecurity threats, however, were not behind the several-day outage at Barclays at the end of January, its UK chief executive Vim Maru said.

He added: “We’ve learned the lessons. We’re acting on the lessons, both work done internally, but also with help from third parties as well.

Account holders across the UK have suffered a spate of IT glitches from different banks around paydays this year.

Tens of millions of pounds on IT have been spent and customer glitches have fallen, Mr Maru said.

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Could ageing tech be behind banking outages?

He added that the problem at Barclays was a software issue, saying: “We put a fix in place that means that we won’t have a recurrence.”

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Steel tycoon Gupta in last-ditch bid to rescue UK empire

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Steel tycoon Gupta in last-ditch bid to rescue UK empire

The steel tycoon Sanjeev Gupta is mounting a last-ditch bid to salvage his British operations after seeing an emergency plea for government support rejected.

Sky News has learnt that Mr Gupta’s Liberty Speciality Steels UK (SSUK) arm is seeking to adjourn a winding-up petition scheduled to be heard in court on Wednesday.

The petition is reported to have been brought by Harsco Metals Group, a supplier of materials and labour to SSUK, and is said to be supported by other trade creditors.

Unless the adjournment is granted, Mr Gupta faces the prospect of seeing SSUK forced into compulsory liquidation.

That would raise questions over the future of roughly 1,450 more steel industry jobs, weeks after the government stepped in to rescue the larger British Steel amid a row with its Chinese owner over the future of its Scunthorpe steelworks.

If Mr Gupta’s operations do enter compulsory liquidation, the Official Receiver would appoint a special manager to run the operations while a buyer is sought.

A Whitehall insider said talks had taken place in recent days involving Mr Gupta’s executives and the Insolvency Service.

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Steel industry sources said the government could conceivably be interested in reuniting the Rotherham plant of SSUK with British Steel’s Scunthorpe site because of the industrial synergies between them, although it was unclear whether any such discussions had been held.

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Mr Gupta is said to have explored whether he could persuade the government to step in and support SSUK using the legislation enacted last month to take control of British Steel’s operations.

Whitehall insiders said, however, that Mr Gupta’s overtures had been rebuffed.

He had previously sought government aid during the pandemic but that plea was also rejected by ministers.

The SSUK division operates across sites including at Rotherham in south Yorkshire and Bolton in Lancashire.

It makes highly engineered steel products for use in sectors such as aerospace, automotive and oil and gas.

A restructuring plan due to be launched last week was abandoned at the eleventh hour after failing to secure support from creditors of Greensill, the collapsed supply chain finance provider to which Mr Gupta was closely tied.

Under that plan, creditors, including HM Revenue and Customs, would have been forced to write off a significant chunk of the money they are owed.

The company said last week that it had invested nearly £200m in the last five years into the UK steel industry, but had faced “significant challenges due to soaring energy costs and an over-reliance on cheap imports, negatively impacting the performance of all UK steel companies”.

It adds: The court’s ability to sanction the plan depended on finalisation of an agreement with creditors.

“This has not proved possible in an acceptable timeframe, and so Liberty has decided to withdraw the plan ahead of the sanction hearing on May 15 and will now quickly consider alternative options.”

One source close to Liberty Steel acknowledged that it was running out of time to salvage the business.

They said, however, that an adjournment of Wednesday’s hearing to consider the winding-up petition could yet buy the company sufficient breathing space to stitch together an alternative rescue deal.

A Liberty Steel spokesperson said on Tuesday: “Discussions continue with creditors.

“Liberty understands the concern this will create for Speciality Steel UK colleagues and remains committed to doing all it can to maintain the Speciality Steel UK business.”

The Insolvency Service and the Department for Business and Trade have also been contacted for comment.

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Daily Mail-owner Rothermere eyes minority Telegraph stake in RedBird deal

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Daily Mail-owner Rothermere eyes minority Telegraph stake in RedBird deal

The publisher of the Daily Mail has held talks in recent days about taking a minority stake in the Telegraph newspapers as part of a deal to end the two-year impasse over their ownership.

Sky News has learnt that Lord Rothermere, who controls Daily Mail & General Trust (DMGT), was in detailed negotiations late last week which would have seen him taking a 9.9% stake in the Telegraph titles.

It was unclear on Monday whether the talks were still live or whether they would result in a deal, with one adviser suggesting that the discussions may have faltered.

One insider said that if DMGT did acquire a stake in the Telegraph, the transaction would be used as a platform to explore the sharing of costs across the two companies.

They would, however, remain editorially independent.

Sources said that RedBird and IMI, whose joint venture owns a call option to convert debt secured against the Telegraph into equity, were hoping to announce a deal for the future ownership of the media group this week, potentially on Thursday.

However, the insider suggested that a transaction could yet be struck without any involvement from DMGT.

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The progress in the talks to seal new ownership for the right-leaning titles comes days after the government said it would allow foreign state investors to hold stakes of up to 15% in British national newspapers.

That would pave the way for Abu Dhabi royal family-controlled IMI to own 15% of the Daily and Sunday Telegraph – a prospect which has sparked outrage from critics including the former Spectator editor Fraser Nelson.

The decision to set the ownership threshold at 15% follows an intensive lobbying campaign by newspaper industry executives concerned that a permanent outright ban could cut off a vital source of funding to an already-embattled industry.

RedBird Capital, the US-based fund, has already said it is exploring the possibility of taking full control of the Telegraph, while IMI would have – if the status quo had been maintained – been forced to relinquish any involvement in the right-leaning broadsheets.

Other than RedBird, a number of suitors for the Telegraph have expressed interest but struggled to raise the funding for a deal.

The most notable of these has been Dovid Efune, owner of The New York Sun, who has been trying for months to raise the £550m sought by RedBird IMI to recoup its outlay.

On Sunday, the Financial Times reported that Mr Efune has secured backing from Jeremy Hosking, the prominent City investor.

Another potential offer from Todd Boehly, the Chelsea Football Club co-owner, and media tycoon David Montgomery, has failed to materialise.

RedBird IMI paid £600m in 2023 to acquire a call option that was intended to convert into ownership of the Telegraph newspapers and The Spectator magazine.

That objective was thwarted by a change in media ownership laws – which banned any form of foreign state ownership – amid an outcry from parliamentarians.

The Spectator was then sold last year for £100m to Sir Paul Marshall, the hedge fund billionaire, who has installed Lord Gove, the former cabinet minister, as its editor.

The UAE-based IMI, which is controlled by the UAE’s deputy prime minister and ultimate owner of Manchester City Football Club, Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, extended a further £600m to the Barclays to pay off a loan owed to Lloyds Banking Group, with the balance secured against other family-controlled assets.

Other bidders for the Telegraph had included Lord Saatchi, the former advertising mogul, who offered £350m, while Lord Rothermere, the Daily Mail proprietor, pulled out of the bidding for control of his rival’s titles last summer amid concerns that he would be blocked on competition grounds.

The Telegraph’s ownership had been left in limbo by a decision taken by Lloyds Banking Group, the principal lender to the Barclay family, to force some of the newspapers’ related corporate entities into a form of insolvency proceedings.

DMGT, RedBird and IMI all declined to comment.

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