Rishi Sunak has suffered a double-blow after losing two by-elections to Labour, overturning significant majorities in both.
Both Kingswood and Wellingborough turned from blue to red, meaning this government has seen the most by-election losses of any Conservative administration since the Second World War.
The losses do not bode well as Downing Street continues its preparation for the general election due this year.
The results also provide some relief for Sir Keir Starmer after a challenging week for the Labour leader, having scaled back his party’s green investment plan and been embroiled in an antisemitism crisis.
The Wellingborough vote was called after Peter Bone was recalled by his constituents following claims of bullying and sexually inappropriate behaviour, which he denies.
Labour‘s Gen Kitchen overturned a majority of more than 18,000 to win the seat from the Tories, with a swing of 28.5% – the second highest of all time.
The Kingswood vote was held after Chris Skidmore resigned as an MP over Mr Sunak’s green policies. Labour’s Damien Egan overturned a majority of more than 11,000 there.
These two losses mark the ninth and 10th by-election defeats for the government since the 2019 general election.
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Taking into account its win at the Hartlepool by-election in 2021, this government has now lost a net of nine seats, overshadowing the 1992 to 1997 administration of Sir John Major which lost eight.
The Labour administration of 1966 to 1970 did perform even worse, however; they lost 15 seats in four years.
Speaking after the results, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said: “These are fantastic results in Kingswood and Wellingborough that show people want change and are ready to put their faith in a changed Labour Party to deliver it.
“By winning in these Tory strongholds, we can confidently say that Labour is back in the service of working people and we will work tirelessly to deliver for them.”
Image: Gen Kitchen took the Wellingborough seat. Pic: PA
Image: New Kingswood MP Damien Egan. Pic: PA
Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden told Sky News it had been a “very disappointing result and there is “no need to shy away from that”.
However, he sought to stress that turnout among Tory voters was low while highlighting the “not ideal” circumstances that led to the by-elections.
Asked about Reform UK’s results, which were the best for the party in a by-election so far, Mr Holden said those voters “will come from all sorts of different parties”,not just the Conservatives, and the threat was not as great as UKIP back in 2010 which was getting “50% of the vote in some cases”.
Sky political analyst professor Michael Thrasher pointed out that, due to the secret ballots used in the UK, you cannot know if voters have swapped between parties “unless you stop people as they come out of the polling station and ask”.
Another success of the night went to Reform UK – the successor of the Brexit Party – which took home more than 10% of the votes in both seats.
It had not previously polled more than 10% at a by-election.
It finished third in both seats, winning 3,919 votes in Wellingborough and 2,578 in Kingswood, beating the Lib Dems.
Reform has been clear it is gunning for the Conservative Party, and has pledged to stand a candidate in every seat in Britain.
Next up for the parties is the Rochdale by-election in two weeks – although Labour has abandoned its candidate following an antisemitism row.
Former Conservative chairman and friend of Boris Johnson – Sir Jake Berry – is defecting to Reform UK, causing more problems for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch.
On today’s episode, Sky News’ Sam Coates and Politico’s Anne McElvoy discuss if his defection will divide parts of Reform policy.
Elsewhere, the Anglo-French summit gets under way, with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer hoping to announce a migration deal with French President Emmanuel Macron to deter small boat crossings.
Plus, chatter around Whitehall that No10 are considering a pre-summer reshuffle, but will it have any value?
The trial is part of Project Acacia, an initiative from the RBA exploring how digital money and tokenization could support financial markets in Australia.
Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron have agreed the need for a “new deterrent” to deter small boats crossings in the Channel, Downing Street has said.
The prime minister met Mr Macron this afternoon as part of the French president’s state visit to the UK, which began on Tuesday.
High up the agenda for the two leaders is the need to tackle small boat crossings in the Channel, which Mr Macron said yesterday was a “burden” for both the UK and France.
The small boats crisis is a pressing issue for the prime minister, given that more than 20,000 migrants crossed the English Channel to the UK in the first six months of this year – a rise of almost 50% on the number crossing in 2024.
Sir Keir is hoping he can reach a deal for a one-in one-out return treaty with France, ahead of the UK-France summit on Thursday, which will involve ministerial teams from both nations.
The deal would see those crossing the Channel illegally sent back to France in exchange for Britain taking in any asylum seeker with a family connection in the UK.
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However, it is understood the deal is still in the balance, with some EU countries unhappy about France and the UK agreeing on a bilateral deal.
French newspaper Le Monde reports that up to 50 small boat migrants could be sent back to France each week, starting from August, as part of an agreement between Sir Keir and Mr Macron.
A statement from Downing Street said: “The prime minister met the French President Emmanuel Macron in Downing Street this afternoon.
“They reflected on the state visit of the president so far, agreeing that it had been an important representation of the deep ties between our two countries.
“Moving on to discuss joint working, they shared their desire to deepen our partnership further – from joint leadership in support of Ukraine to strengthening our defence collaboration and increasing bilateral trade and investment.”
It added: “The leaders agreed tackling the threat of irregular migration and small boat crossings is a shared priority that requires shared solutions.
“The prime minister spoke of his government’s toughening of the system in the past year to ensure rules are respected and enforced, including a massive surge in illegal working arrests to end the false promise of jobs that are used to sell spaces on boats.
“The two leaders agreed on the need to go further and make progress on new and innovative solutions, including a new deterrent to break the business model of these gangs.”
Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, seized on the statement to criticise Labour for scrapping the Conservatives’ Rwanda plan, which the Tories claim would have sent asylum seekers “entering the UK illegally” to Rwanda.
He said in an online post: “We had a deterrent ready to go, where every single illegal immigrant arriving over the Channel would be sent to Rwanda.
“But Starmer cancelled this before it had a chance to start.
“Now, a year later, he’s realised he made a massive mistake. That’s why numbers have surged and this year so far has been the worst in history for illegal channel crossings.
“Starmer is weak and incompetent and he’s lost control of our borders.”